04/30/13 After just 5 weeks of trading, strong hype/sales skills are certainly in action here. Plus the bull market is helping "a serious student" temporarily...
As some serious investors are aware, just about anybody can do "extensive back-testing", plotting non-audited equity curves and selling it here on C2. It is an easy business, if you have access to the right software. It is a lot more challenging to put your own money on the line and have TOS.
Making money in the ever changing markets requires some additional skills...
As one recalls, there used to be Cameron Wild Trading Record on C2. It got an early 5 star hype, just like Pangolin now, and was running a similar forum, big on extensive back testing, new system development, etc.
Where is it now?
Well, they call it now "Discontinued, please see new system"...
It is interesting that the "student's" website, created in Oct, 2011, doesn't provide any information regarding his background, etc. The website proclaims that the "student" will take the money from "less intelligent investors".
Only time will tell how more or " less intelligent" the "student" really is. Give it a few more months, about a year...
The bull market will not last forever, and then it could take a year or longer to recover the losses after a bear market ends, while paying the "student" $50 each month, regardless profitability.
That is a very revealing feature of his clever sales strategy! He doesn't want to work for free in the future, when his system isn't profitable due to the upcoming severe market correction and prolonged bear market. He is well prepared for these upcoming events.
The past experience shows that most of the time the stock market is far more "intelligent", while correcting itself than its students during the corrections. The students will just continue grabbing the falling dagger,

05/05/13 According to Linkedin, Kevin is a Ph.D. polymer chemist by education, and a business developer by his current full time position with Kimberly-Clark.

Also, in his Linkedin profile, Kevin advertises himself as a full time deal maker for the personal and health care products company, Kimberly-Clark. On C2, he advertises himself as a senior scientist with "off and on for 15 years" trading experience, implying that his current KC position has relevance to the trading system development.
Kevin's current full time position very well explains the smooth hype he has organized for himself on C2.

As a scientist, however, could Kevin be a bit less vague, and tell us, really, how much of the "15 years" were spent on the full time deal making in the personal care market and how much on the part-time trading in the stock market?

04/01/13 Uneventful four months so far, while the vendor collects his $89 each month. Note that SR remains high. Unfortunately, high SR alone does not make money.
05/3/13 If a low dd and stops in place were all that required to make money with any system, life would have been easy - just like collecting $89 each month for this system. This is a very clever vendor!
The fact that the 5-star reviewer had lost money with the 19 other systems, only acknowledges that their system selection strategy still needs some improvement, while they are watching "paint dry", as the sincere 2-star reviewer put it .

04/30/13 After just 8 trades, what is it "promising" us? More "careful" 17% intratrade dd?

04/09/13 Looking back at the statistics of some similar systems on C2, one may notice that none of them was profitable in a long run. It is so due to the low %win. Here it is only 51.9%. If one could make steady profits just due to w/l = 2.3, while having % win at near 50%, life would have been easy and most of the technical analysis users would have been independently wealthy, starting with just $5,000 as their initial capital.
Triple Play is a good example. It did perform "as advertised" for a number of months, then lost 20% and quit.
That is why there is no TOS for Eureka V.

04/12/13 Eureka V, obviously, trades range breakouts. There were many breakout systems
on C2 in the past. Where are they now? We used to have Serendipity on C2 among others. It traded GBP/JPY. Eureka V trades EUR/JPY.
The pairs are highly correlated - they do many false breakouts from the ranges together. One should learn her lesson from Serendipity's fate.
Unfortunately, "fixed risk" does not make the breakout strategy profitable in a long run.
On 2/19/13 Three losses in a row - 150 pips loss in one day.
One should keep in mind, however, that losing streaks for this kind of systems (low %win) could last for 5-8 trades, and 50 pips losses may accumulate into 250-400 pips dd after each streak (see 3 Pair Forex and Forex Marathon for more recent cases in point).
But, of course, the vendor exhibits good sales skills. An experienced salesman, I must agree!
Trading experience, though, is "5-10 years". Can they actually decide how long their trading experience really is?
Their website indicates that they had started it in 2011.
It is interesting that it doesn't provide any background info regarding the trader/traders involved with this system.

04/23/13
Cost averaging/Martingaling eventually leads to margin calls and bust.

04/23/13 Low %win once again brings a long streak of losses, even though SR is high.
Shorting uptrending ES doesn't help either.

04/19/13 1-star reviewer is correct: with w/l = 1.13 and %wins = 65%, it is very likely to continue sideways in the future.
The vendor sent to me an emotional comment.
Well, Szaba, the above parameters are just numbers. I use them to evaluate your system's performance. The best thing about the numbers - they are devoid of emotion.
Good traders act on the numbers not on emotion.
Salesmen, however, use emotion to sell/promote their systems with very short trading records.

04/22/13 The "picture" is priceless, I agree. It confirms once more my expectations from a system with %win = 64.5% , w/l = 0.7 and the fixed fee of $199 each month.

04/22/13
In Dec 2012 the system was called "defined risk" and 5-star rated. However, the low %win = 58.7% , combined with w/l = 1.29 made
"the give back ratio" "MASSIVE", as the 2-star reviewer put it.

04/22/13 We have seen a number of systems on C2 that had attempted trading EUR/USD breakouts with 20 pips stops. Where are they now?

10/10/12
The low win rate will ultimately bring this system into a sideways mode again, similar to what happened in Jun - Jul 2012. The current profit factor = 2.3 is not high enough to compensate for the low win rate = 51.2. I am writing my comments based on the past statistics for the similar systems observed by me in the past.
And then again, if the system is so good, why the vendor is not TOS certified? Does he believe in his system's future success?
Note that SR is high but the performance is flat.

Just like Eureka V is trading now, Serendipity used to trade range breakouts as well. It is no longer supported due to too many false breakouts.

04/15/13 A vendor with an "open source nature" is open enough to rename his system a "test" as soon as it stopped performing. That is why there was no TOS here.

04/15/13 Another hyped Martingaling system with a fixed monthly payment. And no TOS...
Only 16 trades and it is already a 5-star system???
There were also his ALGOSTOCK and ALGOFUTURES.

04/14/04 SR is high but performance is not.
And no TOS...

04/03/12 No TOS allows him to take some wild bets as in the 1- star review. Besides, high SR is no guarantee of future good performance.

04/01/13 w/l = 1.26, % win = 64 - both too low. Most likely will continue in the sideways mode.
This could be the reason why the vendor has no TOS certification. It is noteworthy, since he proclaims: "I have my way" in his rebuttal to the 2-star review, using the words of the famous philosopher.
But the sales strategy is clever: subscribe now and keep on paying the vendor $150 each month, while his system's performance is going sideways.
Once again, high SR alone does not make money.

04/27/13 Unfortunately, win % has become too low,

10/11/12
Just another Martingaling betting scheme. Yes, it will need a lot of luck to succeed in a long run.
The vendor had increased his position from 1 to 6 lots as the market moved nearly 100 pips against him. Got lucky this time.
10/7/12 23:34 BUY 6 CHF/JPY 83.647 10/11
7:03 83.763 Normal $83
10/7/12 23:34 BTO 1 CHF/JPY 84.251
10/8/12 3:50 BTO 2 CHF/JPY 83.917
10/9/12 12:03 BTO 3 CHF/JPY 83.266
No TOS ... Too risky.
Some developers, who can't get TOS for various reasons, still trade their own accounts on C2.
So here, the fact that the developer doesn't trade his own system, simply demonstrates that the developer himself is scared of his larger than 100 pips dd. It is understandable - one can easily get a margin call while adding to a losing position.
12/14/12 Anh Nguen is mistaken. The problem is in the fact that tradeWerkz is a Martingaling system. There is no problem with having high probability of winning. It is self-evident.

09/11/12 Just for the record, Atom is created by Mr. Venters/XX. See Venters AUD/NZD/VenFX/XXX...

10/10/12
Sells options - one of the riskiest strategies available. Selling options implies taking an unlimited risk while expecting a limited return.
One can't really use protective stops with options.
What is the point of taking the unlimited risk?
Is it really worth it dealing with ever changing margin requirements for the naked short options positions?
Guess not - no TOS cerification.
Just for the record, C2 Admin had removed the 5 star review printed by a hypemeister on 10/10/12.

No TOS certification.

No TOS certification.

January 2012 looks good so far. But the two losing months in a row, in the recent past, plus the subscription fee charged on the top of the monthly loss, cause a future performance concern. Past history repeats itself as a rule of charts, especially considering that
% win = 60% is low.
For example, with a 5k account in December 2011, one would have lost 1.7% x 5000-89 = 85 - 89 = - $4.
During the two losing months in a row (June, July 2011),
one would have lost 2.1% x 5000-89-89 = -105-89-89= - $289.
So, $89 per month, if not profitable, is very expensive.
Besides, in the last 6-7 months the average monthly return was just 6.3%, which is low considering that the probabilities of future account loss are relatively high (Monte Carlo simulation).

3/19/12 159 pips loss in just one day due to his failure to recognize a strong downtrend for JPY since the beginning of Feb 2012. So CHF, EUR, GPB had risen against JPY and gave him the 159 pips loss, confirming the Monte Carlo simulation results once again.
The vendor is clever enough to trade the highly correlated pairs (2 minilot each), instead of one pair with 6 minilot, to avoid higher C2 risk ratings.
Still the bottom line is the same - 159 pips loss per call.

And after the loss here comes a hypemeister with their "robustness" sales pitch.
He lost 1.4 % in February.
How much does he need to lose to get 5 stars?
Just a few more 159 pips losing days?
This is what I mean by a pure hype - praising the system after the loss and mediocre performance.
As I recall, Venters also got 4 and 5 stars upon his loss in Jan 2012, and called "the worry-free" system.
04/03/12 The latest 4 star hypemeister likes the system when the vendor "deviates" from it and trades by the seat of his pants. If the vendor performs better when not following his system, then is it really a good system?
LOL!
04/26/12 It is interesting that Wayne likes to hide his system from the public view ( by claiming temporarily that he does not accept new subscribers) every time his system goes into a DD. Why does he get so shy?
04/30/12 The 4 star review claims only that "you can sleep with this system...". The real question is whether you can make money with this system? See a more realistic 1 star review and the trend of diminishing returns.
Because, had one "stuck" with this system for two months in Jun, Jul 2011, it would have been a loss. This trading history will repeat itself in the future.
05/11/12 With % profitable dropping to only 59%, w/l = 1.19 will not be able to compensate for the low % of wins. Expect a sideways equity curve for months to come...
The recent three star reviewer gives us just a recipe of how to rearrange "loose" trades for Superrpips. He wants us to second-guess the "good" system as to when to exit the trades.
Thanks for the tutorial. But what is the meaning of the three stars?
06/13/12 83 pips loss by the system and a tutorial from a 4 star hypemeister. More second-guessing...
06/25/12 The hype is rising...
07/24/12 And, finally, a realistic 2 star review...
07/25/12 If this system has become "obsolete", according to the 5 star review, after just 14 months, it has never been any good to begin with. Read my comments from 03/19/12
and the earlier ones( the low win rate, etc).

07/3012 Actually, 4 star hypemiester, there were 5 losing months during the 14 months of trading! And looking at the equity curve, the equity is at the same level where it was in the beginning Apr 2012. It is the sideways equity curve due to the low win rate and the inadequate w/l ratio (see the 8 substantial losses in a row most recently).The curve will continue to remain sideways, if lucky.
Even the 5 star reviewer finds SuperrPips "obsolete", while the vendor charges $89 per month regardless of profitability.
10/10/12 No TOS certification.

09/11/12 Just another Martingaling/cost averaging scheme. 5 star rating was given based on an insufficient sample.

09/18/12 Here comes a 2 star advice: "hanging in..." for this extremely risky system (and pay $1000 per quarter while hanging in). Just for the record, on March 12, 2012, there was a similar advice to Pipalert subscribers to "just hang...".
We know now what happened to Pipalert since then. Both Pipalert and Cameron are extremely risky Martingaling systems.
Here is an example of Cameron increasing his position/risk as the market moves against him (Martingaling):
4/16/12 11:48 SELL 10.3 MTK2 CAC40 3199.83 4/24
3:09 3092.95 Low $14,362
4/16/12 11:48 STO 0.9 MTK2 3141
4/17/12 3:17 STO 1.7 MTK2 3157.50
4/18/12 4:02 STO 2 MTK2 3226.50
4/18/12 4:02 STO 2 MTK2 3226
4/18/12 4:02 STO 0.4 MTK2 3226.50
4/18/12 4:20 STO 0.7 MTK2 3220.50
4/18/12 4:20 STO 2 MTK2 3219
4/19/12 11:35 BTC 0.8 MTK2 3114.50
4/19/12 11:36 BTC 0.8 MTK2 3113.50
4/19/12 11:46 BTC 1 MTK2 3123.50
4/19/12 11:50 STO 0.6 MTK2 3126
4/20/12 3:18 BTC 2 MTK2 3107
4/20/12 3:18 BTC 2 MTK2 3107
4/20/12 3:18 BTC 0.6 MTK2 3104.50
4/23/12 11:40 BTC 0.5 MTK2 3052
4/23/12 11:43 BTC 2 MTK2 3051.50
4/24/12 3:09 BTC 0.6 MTK2 3053
He got lucky then. Unfortunately, not so lucky now. In reality, no hedge fund will allow him to do such position increase. On the contrary, his trading supervisor will force him to do just the opposite - decrease his positions/decrease risk.
Defending his system, Cameron wrote to me, saying: "and that is why it may appear to be that way at the current time, but that is just a coincidence."
The truth is that Cameron has done Martingaling many times before "the current time". That is before 09/18/12.
One doesn't need to have a sufficient sample size to prove Martingaling. If a system has done it once, it will do it again. And Cameron has done it again in the last trade. It is just the inescapable nature of Martingaling.
Certainly, trading is already risky. Martingaling, unfortunately, increases the risk of trading many times over!

By the way, many vendors will be delighted to share with us their past performance (without C2 audit ) and back testing data. However, profitable trading under the C2 audit/supervision requires an additional set of professional skills.

06/25/11 5 star rating for a system that has been sideways since March 2011 until now?
You must be joking!
With w/l = 0.73, win rate only 66%, TSX is likely to stay mostly sideways.
Say, Calmar ratio requires at least 36 months of data to be valid. TSX, obviously, hasn't been around that long.
08/05/11 The actual results are even worse than I had expected based on my hype indicator.
And the following 1 star review by an autotrader reads(for the record):
"Aug 5, 2011 from AutoTrader
Losing 25 percent of all capital in one trade proves one thing about the vendor. He is a CHARLATAN."

09/23/12 As the system gets into a drawdown, here comes a 5 star hypemeister with their sales hype. However, with win rate = 47%, w/l = 1.49 the system will continue to oscillate sideways, if one is lucky enough. It could also follow the destiny of their earlier Betas.
09/24/12 Just for the record, the 5 star hype has been removed.

09/23/12 What else one should expect from a system with win rate = 41%, w/l = 2.1?
CAR means nothing for this kind of systems. Take a look at Max Profits as well. It's CAR still looks "splendid".

09/09/12 Unfortunately, this system belongs to the same class as Forex Swing 2012, etc. - initial low sub. fee, low initial capital and Martingaling/increasing risk as the market moves against him.
For instance,
6/18/12 9:34 SELL 4 AUD/USD 1.01074 6/25
2:34 1.00321 High $297.
6/18/12 9:34 STO 1 AUD/USD 1.00620
6/19/12 4:47 STO 3 AUD/USD 1.01225
In the above trade he had quadrupled the risk as the market moved 60 pips against him.
He got lucky then.
What about his future performance? Most likely, will repeat Forex Swing's performance as we are observing it now..

07/31/12 There were several FX systems on C2 that started, like Forex Swing with a low capital - $5k or less. They were Zen FX, Ven FX, Wave Runner, Prudence, etc. They got lucky for a month or two, attracted some attention and then became obsolete or just quit trading on C2.
Trading with the low initial capital tends to embellish initial performance numbers (via CAR, for instance, to help their sales pitch).
In reality, consider, for example, a recent losing trade below:
7/26/12 6:37 SELL 2 EUR/USD 1.22197 7/27
8:13 1.23289 Normal ($220)
It was a 109 pips loss !!! And there were more losses of similar magnitude on the record.
So far, they came in series of 2-3 losing trades in a row.
Holding a couple of 100 pips losers for days is not "risk adverse", Hypemeister. Recall that he may hold his positions for months (see the system description). But thanks for your early sales pitch.
What is your hurry, I wonder? The broker data only begins on 7/23/12. So the speedy hypemeister has given the system 5 star rating after just one week of autotrading it !!!
Still others will chose to go beyond the superficial sales wording ( "impressed me" ) and examine some relevant numbers.
The numbers clearly show that the developer splits his positions among the highly correlated pairs, thus making an appearance of a "low" risk per trade.
However, when you sum up the risks for all the highly correlated pairs held together, the total position risk is very substantial at over 100 pips loss per pair.
In this regard, Forex Swing uses the same tactics as SuperrPips.
Also, the developer claims that he follows "medium term " trends. The truth is that, on 7/26/12, he was shorting both EUR and NZD ( they were highly correlated at the moment) against the strong upward "medium term" trend!!
08/09/12 The so-called "safe" system turns out to be just another Martingale/cost averaging betting scheme (see the trade below), as the vendor had doubled his initial position upon the market moving over 70 pips against him!
8/8/12 13:34 SELL 4 EUR/NZD 1.51930 8/9
8:35 1.51775 Normal $46
8/8/12 13:34 STO 2 EUR/NZD 1.51560
8/8/12 19:01 STO 2 EUR/NZD 1.52299
8/9/12 8:35 BTC 4 EUR/NZD 1.51775
Of course, $20 per month is a cheap subscription fee. However, playing with the Martingale schemes may end up too costly in a long run. For more information, consider reading the recent 1 star reviews for another Martingale scheme (Pipalert).
08/15/12 Another Martingale trade(see below) - had doubled his position as the market moved 100 pips against him
8/7/12 18:28 BUY 4 EUR/USD 1.23387 8/13
22:44 1.23441 Normal $18
8/7/12 18:28 BTO 2 EUR/USD 1.23934
8/9/12 13:32 BTO 2 EUR/USD 1.22839
8/13/12 22:44 STC 4 EUR/USD 1.23441
Got lucky this time.
08/22/12
With the trade below the developer had turned a 40+ pips winner into a 40+ pips loser after holding it for 5 days. Sad but true.
8/16/12 9:31 SELL 2 EUR/USD 1.23362 8/21
3:26 1.23852 Low ($100)
09/06/12 And, finally, the one star summary for this system:
"Damn this guy is going for broke."
- an AutoTrader
By the way, the subscription fee now is $50 - it has more than doubled in the process.

Four star hype after just 24 trades? LOL.
Sells options - one of the riskiest strategies available. Selling options implies an unlimited risk, while the system's average monthly return is only about 5%.
One can't really use protective stops with options.
What is the point of taking the unlimited risk?
Is it really worth it dealing with ever changing margin requirements for one's short options positions? As the implied volatility changes, so do the margin requirements for the short options positions. They are unpredictable, and one could face a margin call at any time.
08/25/12 In reality, it is not "typically 5-10%" but only an average of 4% per month.
09/03/12 There is no such thing as "relatively low risk" and "loss control" whenever the vendor can't use a stop loss, like here, in the case of naked short options. The risk is just unlimited. And for what? 3.5% in August.

08/26/12 Unfortunately, just another Martingale/cost averaging betting scheme. In the trade below the vendor had doubled his initial position/risk as the market moved 58 pts against him:
7/25/12 11:04 BUY 2 XGU2 DAX INDEX 6369.08 7/26
6:31 6420 Normal $3,077
7/25/12 11:04 BTO 1 XGU2 6398
7/26/12 5:53 BTO 1 XGU2 6340.17
7/26/12 6:31 STC 2 XGU2 6420
Got lucky this time.
On 08/19/21, margin call. Out of luck.
This is another example of what one might expect in the future from the Martingales.

05/25/12 The system has done only 13 trades on C2 so far. The laws of statistics require a sample of at least 30 trades to have a statistical significance for performance evaluation purposes.
Also, 50% of the total profit for the system comes from just one trade in Nov 2011. This fact makes the available record even less statistically reliable.
And now that the system is in a losing trade,
here comes a "happy" sales hypemeister with his tutorial regarding following the trends.
The vendor claims that he has more data on his website. However, I only consider the trading record independently audited by C2.
He also makes claims regarding his allegedly superior VeePo methodology achieving "spectacular" (about 2% per month recently) returns.
OK, this could be "algorithmic", but hardly "unprecedented". Thanks for the sales presentation.
08/05/12 In Jul 2012, with the "low sub fee", trading a $20,000 account, one would have lost
$20,000 X 0.4% - $150 = - $70.
Also, an average monthly return is weak.

08/08/12 The well-organised hype/sales campaign is stepping up after the losing month, as it is often the case.
Who cares about his "non-parabolic" equity curve based on the insufficient sample? The hypemeister makes it sound like "non-parabolic" is an advantage. It is, certainly, not an advantage. It only demonstrates lesser returns compared to a system with a near-parabolic equity curve.
Also, how do the hypemeister's sleeping habits make the system any better?
08/09/12 The above mentioned 5 star hype has been removed.

08/23/12
The trade below is in the Martingale/cost averaging style: had tripled his position/risk as the market moved 14 pts against him.
7/31/12 18:33 BUY 3 @ESU2 E-MINI S&P 500 1363.21 8/16
14:31 1405.50 Normal $6,302
7/31/12 18:33 BTO 1 @ESU2 1372.50
8/2/12 9:30 BTO 2 @ESU2 1358.56

08/17/12 4 star for this system? At 36% win rate,
the vendor is better off with a coin toss - 50:50 is a lot better the 36:64. Apparently, a hype meister enjoys sitting in the losing trades 64 % of his time.
Of course, back and forward test performances are of interest. However, as the time goes on, markets change, and many systems become obsolete despite their past performance. They become obsolete due to their low win rate. Their current W//L rate will not help in the future due to the changing market conditions.
Recent examples of low win rate performances : Corn Trend, MaxProfits.

Experience and many years of system studies show that a system will be a viable candidate for a good long term performance, only, if it has a high enough win rate consistently without Martingale/cost averaging.

08/13/12 Just another over-leveraged Martingale scheme.
8/3/12 9:21 SELL 30 EUR/USD 1.23097 8/8
9:10 1.23418 Extreme ($994)
8/3/12 9:21 STO 15 EUR/USD 1.22750
8/3/12 10:03 STO 10 EUR/USD 1.23260
8/6/12 9:34 STO 5 EUR/USD 1.23810
8/8/12 9:10 BTC 30 EUR/USD 1.23418

08/13/12 Certainly, $25 per month is a cheap sub fee. However, the vendor uses a Martingale
betting scheme, and it could get costly in a long run. For instance, in the trade below he had quadrupled his initial position as the market moved 84 pips against him. See 1 star Pipalert reviews for more information on using Martingale schemes.
7/15/12 19:44 BUY 12 USD/JPY 78.664 7/31
21:01 77.964 Normal ($1,089)
7/15/12 19:44 BTO 3 USD/JPY 79.179
7/18/12 16:24 BTO 3 USD/JPY 78.779
7/27/12 9:04 BTO 3 USD/JPY 78.359
7/27/12 9:06 BTO 3 USD/JPY 78.338
7/31/12 21:01 STC 12 USD/JPY 77.96
Of course, some vendors would tell us that they just "scale into their positions". Well, adding more lots over a 30 pips range is understandable. But quadrupling his position against the 84 pips move is pure Martingale.

04/04/12 If this is "powerful" what is weak, 5 star Hypemeister?
Sure, for $5 per trade, he will ride thru some extreme trades (20% intratrade dd). Why not? It is profitable...
08/0912
The same Martingale concept and the pair as in Pipalert - what kind of performance will it deliver in the future?

07/24/12 The trade below is a recent classic martingale/cost averaging example:
7/17/12 12:12 SELL 4 EUR/USD 1.22660 7/18
5:36 1.22577 Normal $29
The vendor had quadrupled (a hypemeister calls it "light averaging") his initial position, as the market moved 70 pips against him. Basically, uses a strategy very similar to the one used by Pipalert. Too risky...

The developer claims to have "system based on trend following, taking advantage of momentum".
7/17/ 12 The trade below shows that it is not so: he was shorting GBP/USD against the momentum and the bias that has been straight up since Jul 12, 2012.
7/17/12 15:38 SELL 4 GBP/USD 1.56371 7/1716:12 1.56563 Low ($81)
On 7/19/12 has turned a 47 pip winner into a 42 pip loser. Sad but true.
7/18/12 5:11 SELL 2 EUR/USD 1.22656 7/19
5:54 1.23081 Low ($87)

05/29/12 %win = 59%, av. w/ av. l = 1.35
1.35 isn't high enough to balance the low 59%.
And considering the Monte Calro simulation results along with the low % win = 59, expect sideways equity curve in the near future...
06/0412 "Good risk management", 5 star Hypemeister? What about a couple of extreme trades like this one below?
3/8/11 1:08 SELL 1 QSIK1 Silver 5000 oz 35.60 3/11
5:02 34.46 Extreme $5,686
That was 16.5% intratrade dd!!!
06/26/12 Currently %win = 56.3 - has fallen since 5/29/12.

3/23/12 Five stars to this system?
Trades without stops as one can read below:
2/29/12 9:00 BUY 2 QGCJ2 Gold 100 oz 1781.24 3/1
2:30 1716.06 Extreme ($13,064).
That was a disastrous intratrade DD = 38%.
Add the low win rate = 58%, high subscription fee (regardless profitability) = $149, no stops, heavy-duty hype.
Too risky for my portfolio.
Expect sideways equity curve in the near future.
Anyone can create an "informative blog".
Development of a good system takes a different set of skills.
6/16/12 The 5 star hypemeister has removed his hype.

06/12/12 Just another 4 star defensive sales hype after only 12 trades. Any stats based on 12 trades are totally meaningless.
The 2 star reviewer has made a good point.

06/03/12
The same old scheme once again:
1) Start with a very low capital;
2) Get lucky for one month;
3) C2 community takes notice, etc.
See Prudency, Ven FX (Venters) and others of the same kind.
The developer does not even wish to commit to any description of his system. Just his q&a...
06/11/12 The three star reviewer had probably joined the system before it was at least 30 trades "old". He had calculated his "expectancy" on an insufficient sample size.
On the 31st and 32nd trades he got his 'top tier, efficient " losses as a result of his rush to judgment.
The one star reviewer is a lot more realistic - he uses numbers, not empty words.

05/16/12 With % win less than 40%, w/l = 2.4 will never compensate for the extremely low %win.
Lucky, if sideways.
06/11/12 Two margin calls so far: on 05/16/12 and 05/25/12.

5/30/12 Thanks for the sales pitch and investment tutorial, Hypemeister.
A simple comparison of the daily charts for corn and some financial markets indicates that the corn market is pretty volatile as well. Moreover, it is extremely dependent on the weather conditions. And the weather could be highly "volatile".
Hardly worth any further patience, since win rate = 41% and w/l = 2.2. These two metrics indicate that the system will remain in the cyclical sideways equity curve in the near future, if one is lucky.

As Pipalert's monthly performance sharply declines, a hypemeister springs to action.
The trade printed below is a heavy duty Martingale betting:
12/7/11 9:16 SELL 400 EUR/USD 1.34237 12/8 8:51 1.34110 Normal $4,692
In addition, there was 65% intratrade DD as in the trade below:
10/20/11 14:17 SELL 400 EUR/USD 1.38378 10/31 21:09 1.38287 Extreme $3,224
Extremely risky!
2/19/12 Sure, hypemeister, 31% losing month and 48% historical DD do make "a great record".
As somebody once wrote in their one star review of some system recently:
" This is a good system the only thing you need to know is in what month he is going to lose 35%, NO MONEY MANAGING, I will call it the "LAS VEGAS HOLY GRAIL".
Well, for Pipalert it is 31% - no stops!!!
Average loss is 12.6 times larger than average win!
3/12/12
Just for the record:
"Just hang with the trade.....this is a money making machine."
- an AutoTrader -
The well-orchestrated hype is continuing!
Yep, hang on 7-10 pips trades while facing a potential 65% DD on just one trade.
Risk vs return: say, we subscribed in Jan 2012, then after the two months we would have made: $5000 x 8% - $130= 440 - 130 = $310, while risking $5000 X 65% dd = $3250. So, risking $3250 to make $310 for 60 days!!!
Also it took him 7- 8 months to recover from his 31% losing month!!

Probabilities of future account loss (Monte Carlo simulation) are huge as well, while average monthly returns during the last two quarters are only 4%.

What is the point of this "machine"? It is the "money making machine" mostly for the vendor, not for his subscribers.

By the way, the vendor is trading his own account (TOS), scaling it down to 1%. That means his TOS account is only 1% x $488,000 = $4880!!!
So with the 65% DD, he will only lose 65% x $4880 = $3172, and will collect his $95 x (number of his subscribers) from us for his personal profit.
A clever one, isn't it? That is the point.
5/31/12 max loss/max win = $113,685/$10,070 = 11.
So much for the hypemeister's 5 star tutorial:
"Just hang with the trade.....this is a money making machine."

Kingda FX developer had used his Martingales for this system as well.

05/17/12 Unfortunately, he bets in the Martingale style. Too risky for me, especially, considering his trend of diminishing monthly returns.
The most recent instance of the Martingale is printed below - doubling his position as the market went 38 pips against him (see live brokerage data).
5/15/12 11:15 BTO 20 EUR/USD 1.27572
5/16/12 0:14 BTO 20 EUR/USD 1.27199
There were more similar trades in the recent past.
The Martingales lead to trading disasters (see Euro 30, WaveRunner, for instance).

As one can see below, just another overpriced Martingale-styled system:
3/26/12 3:06 BUY 3 XGM2 DAX INDEX 7025.76 3/26
4:24 7002.55 Normal ($2,347)
3/26/12 3:06 BTO 1 XGM2 7031.44
3/26/12 3:08 BTO 1 XGM2 7034
3/26/12 3:25 BTO 1 XGM2 7011.83
Bought the falling dagger 20 points below the initial entry.

08/15/11 The ultimate hype event on C2: the vendor gets 4 stars for losing only 3.6% so far this month!!!
May I ask how much does the vendor need to lose to get 5 stars? LOL
02/10/12 Two losing months in a row (Aug, Sep 2011) combined with the fixed monthly fee ( $100 X 2 ) could be expensive...
The system's age and Sharpe does not mean much, while Win Rate is only 54%.
It is understandable that someone gave it one star on Sep 27, 2011.
02/29/12 The one star reviewer was true. The system made less than 0 in the last 3 months - the vendor got paid $300. The hype is high + the win rate is low.

Max DD=30% is higher than average. That combined with cost averaging and low liquidity of the traded instruments makes this system too risky for my portfolio.
The vendor doesn't say anything about his stops. None?
Besides, with the low liquidity instruments the stops won't help anyways.
So, no stops + low win rate + cost averaging + 30% DD = "solid methodology", according to the four star hypemeister.
Probabilities of future account loss (Monte Carlo simulation) are huge.
The vendor states that his More Futures:
"Trades commodities, financial and index futures using the same correlation principles and trading methods used in the C2 systems MORE Capital and ndxtrader."
Pray and hope that MORE Capital would escape in the future the current state of MORE Futures.
Sometimes more is less...
04/23/12
"If the system keep running with earning more than 5% for months (I don't need risky bets for 20% growth), I'll be more than happy to change the stars to five."
Looks like a well - planned hype campaign, since the returns are declining. As I recall, a similar hype strategy was planned for PCM-Forex.
05/11/12 The above hype has been removed from C2. It was replaced by realistic 1-2 stars reviews.

04/30/12 As the system finishes a losing month, here comes a hypemeister.
Well, 5 stars after just 39 trades is pure hype.
Considering a very low win rate = 44%, win/loss =2.35 is inadequate to compensate for it. So the equity curve will oscillate in a sideways mode in the near future.
Pray and hope it would be able to avoid the performance record that has been demonstrated by eau - another system created by the same vendor.
Waste of time/money as far as my portfolio is concerned.

Is it that very special system type that does 36% intratrade dd? No wonder the reviewer continues their search, instead of trading their 4 star hype.
Also, I thank them for advertising the vendor's website.
The 4 star hype is getting stronger. It is well-orchestrated. The buy oversold/sell overbought is one of the riskiest market strategies known.
With 36% dd the vendor does not use stops.
And the market trends do not care about the oversold/overbought conditions. They just continue to move in the same oversold/overbought direction.
In this trade, as one can see, the vendor uses the Martingale to double their initial position as the market moves 26 pts against them.
11/17/11 18:09
BTO 1@ESZ1 1214.50
11/21/11 18:07
BTO 1@ESZ1 1188.50
11/30/11 15:59 STC 2@ESZ1 1245.67
An extremely risky system.
04/27/12 No trading for 3 months in a row but the hype seems to be well-organized.
Just keep on paying $85 per month and get no trading signals just the hyping ones.
Claims to have 11 year track record but only his C2 record is verified, and it is hardly 11 year long - looks more like just 2 years of data.
The rest is empty space and hype.

Three losing months in a row in 2010, five losing months in a row in 2011.
All the while paying the vendor $199 per month = 8 x $199 = $1,592. If this is good, what is bad???
Probabilities of future account loss (Monte Carlo simulation) are huge as well.
The vendor states that this system uses the same method as MORE Futures. The one called - pray and hope - .
Max DD = 64% !!! It will repeat itself without doubt.
The 5 star hypemeister mentions some other failed C2 system - he means MORE Futures. Obviously so, due to the timing of his review.
The similarity between ndxtrader's performance in Jun, Jul, Aug of 2011 and current MORE Futures performance is inescapable, regardless of what the hypemeister might claim.
He "joined this system at the beginning of March, after many failed attempts at other C2 systems."
Clearly, an attempt to hype this overpriced, extremely risky system with a disastrous past, and blame his own failure in proper system selection on someone else. LOL
04/14/12 The 5 star hypemeister - Anh Nguyen has removed his 5 star review, after learning his lesson...

3/30/12 win rate = 42% is extremely low.
max DD = 36 % is above average.
Probabilities of future account loss are relatively high.
4 star rating by the reviewer = high hype. Sounds like a commercial for the vendor.
$300 per month = overpriced.
Say, in March for $10,000 account, one would have made
4.1% x $10000 = $410 - $300 = $110.
For a $5000, it would have been a loss of
$205-$300 = - $95.
All the while risking $3600/$1800 loss..
What is the point?
The vendor wants his $300 x number of susbscribers. That is the point.
Expect sideways equity curve.

11/25/11 Strong hype after just 23 Forex trades . The vendor is in a big hurry to collect his $99 per month regardless of profitability.
1% return in October is high with near 2% DD? LOL. Assuming one had traded this system in October with $20k, they would have made 20%X1%X$100,000= $200
$200-$99 = $101 net after the fee.
So, they would have paid the vendor 99/200 = 49% of their profits. The fee is too high!
The vendor averages down/uses a Martingale-like betting strategy.
The system description reads like a table of content of some books on technical analysis, Hopefully, the vendor has already finished reading them.
The hype and the fee plus the Martingale betting style make this system too risky for my portfolio.
Interestingly enough, the reviewer doesn't claim that the vendor has made any specific profits for them. The vendor's page doesn't show any real broker data yet, still the review comes from an "Autotrader"!!! How is it possible for "real trading", they claim? LOL.
The vendor is eager to support the hype.
In response to my comments, he wrote to me:
"Finally, you can also take a look at the system 6 months later or even 1 year."
As one can read, he wants us to take a look at his system 6-12 months from now but pay him $99 per month right now!!!
Consider the "low risk" trade below:11/15/11 15:38
BTO 5 EUR/USD 1.35500 ; BTO 5 EUR/USD 1.34412; STC 10 EUR/USD 1.35347 As the market went over 100 pips against his first BTO, he had added another 5 lots to it, trying to catch the falling dagger.
Doubling one's position against the odds is the classic Martingale by the definition. The vendor got lucky this time.

The vendor claims to be a "professional trader". LOL
For $249 per month, had lost about 91% of his equity on just two trades.
Uses the same method for MORE Capital - a recipe for a disaster.

03/19/12 Three losing months in a row: Jul, Aug, Sep 2011. Low win rate = 61%.
In the last 2 quarters, only 2% average monthly return. So, on average with $10,000 account one will get $200 - $49 = $151 per month, risking $10,000 x 14.44%(DD) = $1444.
What is the point?
Here comes the 5 star hypemeister.

Just silent 4 stars to the system that has been losing money since Jul 11!
30% DD accompanied by less than 1% average monthly returns in 2012. You must be joking, hypemeister. LOL.

06/25/11 This system has generated just about 0.8% per month in 2011. 5 stars for it?
You must be still joking!
Later comes the following three star review:
Feb 15, 2012 from Subscriber
I think this is a good system, but it hasn't performed well in the current market conditions. I traded it for 6 months and didn't make any money. I might have stuck with it if it were a performance-based subscription.
The three star review confirms my 06/25/11 notes on the system.

4 stars??? Pure sales hype.
Very low win rate = 43%, and considering that currently win/loss =1.68, expect sideways equity curve in the near future, as it did in the recent past.
$150 per month is a very expensive subscription fee, considering the fact there were two losing months in a row during the recent past. Thanks. Not for me.
It is a fact that during Sep and Oct 2011, the system lost 25%, so with 10k account it was
a loss of $2,500 and $300 were taken out for the developer's fee. The total loss was $2,800!!! It was not recovered until Feb 2012. And very soon thereafter comes the hypemeister with his sales pitch.

08/21/11 4 star hype for the system that has got the following events in the recent past:

3/28/11 -124.7% intra trade draw down - the account wiped out clean while fighting the trend.
4/20/11 - 106.2% intra trade draw down - wiped out again, still fighting the trend.
Sure, there will be some profitable trades at $5 a piece - the vendor will be sitting thru his 100%+ draw downs to collect his $5.
The hype indicator is high/too risky - not worth it.
One star review on Sept 21, 2011 was fair and had confirmed again that the hype indicator works well.
The vendor wrote to me and explained that by following his indicators, he must allow for up to 124.7 % DD on a single trade. He had also demanded that I re-write my notes regarding his past catastrophic DDs. LOL!
However, his extreme Martingale/cost averaging system is not FX_4ME.
Its past trading history will repeat itself in the future. It is the law of charts.
If the vendor had allowed 124.7% DD in the past, he will do it again without a doubt.

5 star review ??? 53% intratrade dd.
Well, it is free. Guess that is why it got the stars.

5 star? While the system is still in a losing trade...LOL.
22% intratrade dd, 58% max dd, $149 per month regardless performance.
Win rate is very low = 52%.
Interestingly, the hype comes with a sort of a brief user manual - a recipe for a disaster.

4 star review?? For what?
Max DD=32% is higher than average.Win rate is very low = 51%.
Subscription fee = $300 per month, regardless performance is ridiculously high.
Expect sideways equity curve in the near future.

After only 26 trades (with a very low win rate = 50%) here comes the early hypemeister with his four star hype.
$125 per month regardless of profitability is too expensive.
With $5,000 trading capital, a subscriber would have lost $5000 X 1.1% - $125 = 55 - 125 = - $70.
LOL.
Expect sideways equity curve in the near future.

The five star hypemeister has conveniently overlooked the previous major DD suffered by the one star reviewer in the recent past who wrote:
May 9, 2011 from AutoTrader
"One trade wipes out the prior 16 months of profits ($489 when you consider typical fees of $1/minilot and the $150/month subscription fee)."
Had the hypemeister been there at the time of the DD, he would have suffered it 10 times harder using his 20 mini lot!
The law of charts - past trading history will repeat itself.

Here is the case in point for my comments regarding Prudency. The law of charts - past trading history will repeat itself.

The oldest scheme in the book (see also Prudent Risk) :
1.Start with a very low initial capital.
2.Get lucky in the first month of trading with a low win rate = 57%.
3.C2 community gets interested...
4. Pray and hope...

"Soild" [sic] wrote the hypemeister, whatever that means. 4 stars for this overpriced Martingale system with the 71% intratrade dd as printed below:
3/23/10 9:33 BUY 1,943 QID 84.70 5/21 9:30 98.85 Extreme $27,454.
There are altogether 7 trades (including the above) marked "extreme". That is 13 % of all the trades, so far.
The hype factor for this extremely risky system is high!
The vendor, however, will make his $299 per month regardless of profitability.

Trades low liquidity instruments without stops.
It is understandable, because stops won't help him to protect his susbscribers, since huge price gaps do happen very often thru the stops placed for the instruments traded.
Pray and hope...

01/19/12
This is what I mean by a classic case of hype: the reviewer gave 5 stars to the system that has just increased it's historical dd. The "worry-free system"??? It has just lost a substantial chunk of equity for it's subscribers. They are in pain and worry!
And you must be joking, Hypemeister!
As a realistic 3 star reviewer writes : "So there is inconsistency in the money management scheme...". They don't see the system as "worry-free" at all.
It seems that the system performs only when the market is in the range. As soon as the market begins to trend, its performance suffers.

An Autotrader says :"A very interesting system with good stats. Worth a close look. I would recommend it."
Let's take a closer look at the "good stats":
1. Average monthly return (March - October) = 4.5%
2. Max DD = 9%, that is twice the average monthly return.
3. Profit factor =1.7 - too low
4. % win = 57% - too low
5. Fee = $250 - too high. He wants to be paid regardless monthly profitability. Makes money, even if we lose.
The fee and hype are too high.
Expect sideways performance in the near future.
Thanks for your heads up on "a very interesting system".

1/4/12 After the realistic 1 and 2 star reviews, and months of declining performance, a hypemeister has published their 5 star review to boost the subscription.
Looking at the stats, the 2.0:1 profit factor is not high enough to compensate for the low % of the winning trades = 43.4.
Also, 1.7 - 2.4% return per month is not worth of the max DD = 12% = potential risk.
Low fee? OK, let's take a look: with a $5k account, in December 2011, you will have made $5000 x 1.7% - $99 = $85 - 99 = -$14!!!
With 10k , 85x2- 99 = $71!!!
What is the point?
Besides, if the vendor is not in "the mood", as he put it, one can keep their money tied up in his system and make 0% return, just as it happened during October 2011, etc. The Hypemeister says that it is a good thing - "no unnecessary exposure".LOL
Thanks, Hypemeister!
Expect the equity curve speaking sideways for itself in the near future.

Just another Martingale/ cost averaging system, as confirmed by
the extremely risky trade printed below:
11/14/11 9:03 BUY 48 EUR/USD 1.35476 11/22 12:21 1.35440 Extreme ($218)
Unfortunately, he also has other Martingale styled trades on his record.
Very risky! Too many people lost too much money using Martingale/cost averaging systems on C2.

A system, like Topaz, ought to have an indicator, telling its developer when to quit wasting subscribers' money on the falling stocks and stay in cash. But then, how would he justify charging his monthly fee during the cash only time?

One of the vendor's classic "double down", Martingale betting trades is printed below:
11/10/11 6:07 STO 30 EUR/USD 1.35674
11/14/11 0:59 STO 30 EUR/USD 1.37505
11/15/11 4:28 BTC 60 EUR/USD 1.35464
He had doubled his position as the market went 183 pips against him.
Very risky!

12/07/11
A closer look at the brokerage data for the trade taken below confirms that this is just another
Martingale/averaging down, low return/high risk system.
12/4/11 21:15 SELL 10 GBP/JPY

12/05/11 There have been never any good stats for this system. The 2 star reviewer had misread the stats, and now has chosen to badmouth other C2 systems. LOL.

12/04/11 Another Martingale-like strategy/averaging down.
For example,
10/31/11 8:33 BTO 7 EUR/AUD 1.32160
10/31/11 12:18 BTO 3 EUR/AUD 1.31603.
First BTO = 7, then the vendor added BTO = 3
as the market went 100 pips against them.

11/28/11 As the system is completing it's very slow month, a hypemeister springs into action.
Let's take a closer look at the risk/reward numbers.
1. Max DD(risk) exceeds it's best performance month, while average monthly return is only 3.07%(reward) but max DD = 8.36%.
So, average monthly reward/risk ratio = 3.07/8.36 = 0.36 - low.
2. % profitable = 59.5 - low;
3. Profit factor = 1.7 - low;
The system will continue it's sideways performance in the near future.
The hype is rising as the performance is falling.
The one and two star ratings published in September, 2011 were a lot more realistic.
Especially, considering the fact that the vendor uses the classic Martingale strategy, when the market moves against him.
For example, as one can read, he had doubled his position on 10/25/11 against the odds.
10/24/11 11:36 BTO 1 USD/JPY 76.135
10/25/11 10:39 BTO 1 USD/JPY 75.885
10/31/11 22:30 STC 2 USD/JPY 78.143
He has been a lucky Martingale bettor so far.

06/16/11
1 star review June 9, 2011 from AutoTrader: "How many consecutive "low risk" losses are subscribers willing to tolerate before it starts to occur to them that the "low risk" system is maybe not "low risk" at all?"
It is brilliant!
Some traders on C2 do understand risk issues.

11/25/11 Heavy-duty Martingale-like betting style in action. The vendor claims to have "small fixed risk" , while allowing for 33% intratrade DD!!! Where is his stop loss?
11/2811 The 5 star hypemeister is a "susbscriber". He feels so safe that he even wouldn't dare to autotrade the system with the 33% DD on just one trade as below:
11/10/11 10:00 SELL 40 EUR/USD 1.36223 11/14 8:38 1.36837 Extreme ($2,497)
The earlier 1, 2, 3 star reviews by the autotraders were a lot more realistic.

09/17/11 The system is free. It does not have to make any money to get the 4 star hype.

08/25/11 There once again comes 5 star hype for the system with 3 losing months in a row in the first quarter of 2011.
Given the low frequency of winning (less than 50%) and the current historical draw down, it is not worth the risk. Expect sideways equity curve in the near future.
By the way, why does the "subscriber" sound like a commercial for OANDA?

08/15/11 Yes, let's take a look at it as the hypemeister says.
With $2,500 = 5% of $50,000, I would have made during the first two months $385 minus $398 subscription fee = - $13 loss.
Just empty hype. LOL

08/09/11 Very heavy duty hype for a very young system.
Not worth the risk due to the heavy hype.

08/07/11 An early strong hype after just 3 months of trading.
"If PCM is still good with 6+ month record, add 1 additional star here. 4 stars now" - sounds like a well-planned hype campaign here.
The hype indicator is good for future performance evaluation. The higher is the hype, the worse is the future performance.
This indicator has worked well for me here on C2 since 2009.
Not worth the risk due to the strong hype for this young system.

08/04/11 The hype indicator was up in June 2011 - the performance had worsened since then.
The indicator works very well.

0709/11 Here the 5 star hype effort had begun in July 2010. Since then the system has not done much, and there, a year later, once again the hype indicator has worked again.
Hence the 2 star rating from a realistic reveiwer.

07/09/11 Here the 4 star hype had begun in April 2011.
As the hype has been growing, the performance has been diminishing big time - the system lost money in the last 3 months.
As my observations show (on C2, since 2009), the hype level has been a good indicator of the future performance.

07/09/11 Just another case demonstrating how 4-5 star hype is ultimately misleading.

07/08/11
Some facts:
1. "Since 7th June 2011 EVGM will not trade more options." The vendor had changed his system in June.
2. The system made no money in June.
3. Low win rate = 47.1%
4. Hype level = high
Now comes a "subscriber" with a 5 star review full of hype.
Some "subsribers" just keep on joking/hyping.

Furthermore, the vendor admits (see below) that his friend has abused the 5 star rating for promotional/advertising purposes.

Rebuttal, posted on July 8, 2011 by system developer:

"Thank you very much. I will continue to work to have more good months.

(Yes, this review is from a friend (and customer), but is his sincere opinion)

Greetings!"
Thanks for your promises, Hugo. Greetings to you too.

07/03/11 The system has been comatose for a long while before the beginning of 2011.
What if the comatose state returns?

11/06/10 Best month + 11.7%. worst month - 8.7%. Not worth it, even at $15 per month(you get what you paid for).

9/27/10 For every $10,000 invested, returns $3.6 per hour of market exposure, so far.

06/11/11 5 star rating + a large DD = the 2 conditions preceding Faith in R. crash.
Also, Silver Alpha is another case in point, where a vendor begins with a small capital and crashes.
Too risky.
06/22/11 5 star hype thickens - if 38% dd is average, what is high?

06/11/11 The 1 star rating is, probably, due to av.w/av.l = 0.25.
Their fear is understandable, since the current system accuracy might become insufficient to compensate for such a low av.w/av.l ratio, and the equity curve will oscillate too much.

12/11/10 Is it genius or just the bull market on food-related commodities? Still sudden trend reversals due to weather, etc could generate price gaps thru his stops. Hope he uses them.

06/06/11
"Another typical system here at C2. Two or three months up with luck, afterwards collapsing like a dead horse. What kind of logic do these "systems" have? My conclusion is that no futures-trading-systems at collective2.com will live longer than 12 or 24 months. That's true. Every new person who enters this site should consider this."

The above 1 star review indicates that the reviewer had bought into an early 4-5 star hype, had ignored some objective C2 risk indicators, and now wants to disparage the C2 website and other systems. Just because he made a judgment error, everyone on C2 is guilty. "What kind of logic" does this reviewer have??

05/27/11 Another talented salesman in action after just 15 trades. He wants us in his "Pocket..." fast. "RocketScience" fast.

06/15/11 . Only 16 trades and plenty of hype. Too soon to pay any attention at all.
Yet, if trading systems based on Bayesian Networks had worked for DAX, most of the Quants, I know, would have been already filthy rich. Hopefully, BK knows something that they all had missed to their detriment.
Heil "System Savant" !

11/27/10 The developer sounds like a nice enough fellow. However, that is not a good enough reason for me to risk my capital on his system. Trading it could be as fun as death by a thousand cuts due to w/l=0.57 and heavy slippage.

no comment

no comments

11/29/09 $/hr = 3.
Up to 4 days position holding time in multiple pairs - anything can happen in 4 days...
12/05/09 Fxtimer has responded to my question regading his pairs correlation: he states that his system does hold simultaneous positions in positively correlated FX pairs for up to 4 days. This kind of prolonged exposure to risk could be catastrophic to a subscriber, since markets do at times gap through protective stops...
12/07/09 Fxtimer wrote to me again, defending his system. He had stated that SR is the only thing he cares about, regardless of any other considerations. Certainly, the SR appears to be simple enough measure of risk. However, since the SR looks at variance only, it is prone to manipulation.
As a matter of fact, it has been shown time and time again both theoretically and in practice(via many catastrophic hedge fund failures) that SR is not a good measure of risk in real life(where returns are not normally distributed), even while holding negatively correlated pairs(assets). Fxtimer likes holding positevely correlated pairs for up to 4 days - too risky for my portfolio!!!

02/19/10 Here is how Fxtimer had responded to some of my questions, on 12/07/09, in one of his e-mails :
"Cheers to you too ;)...I wasn_BACKTICK_t defending it,1000% annualized ROI with Sharpe>7 doesn_BACKTICK_t need defense;"
Obviously, he was implying his ability to maintain the above ROI and Sharpe ratio "forever". So far, as one can see, it has not happened.
Based on what he had written in his e-mails to me, Fxtimer has a problem communicating with people who see things differently from him. He also does not see the difference between personal comments on My Analyst page, and Reviews by Autotraders. Everyone is entitled to their own evaluation criteria on their MA page. And calling them "silly" is disrespectful and unprofessional.
Besides, if he is a trader, confident in his system, why attacking other people's evaluation criteria? Trader's job is to trade.
Here is another example of FXtimer's communication style.
On the same date, he had sent another e-mail to me, responding to my technical questions concerning his risk profile. I quote:
" Keep Up with your good deeds defending the weak against the bad ones ;)...I cheer for you...Low wage at power ;) "
Is this a professional response to a technical question? Who does he think he is?
Well, obviously, " the weak " are we, those with smaller accounts, we are the " low wage" earners. That makes his system/him " the bad", correct?
Yet, he wants us, the " weak low wage earners" to forget about our "silly" risk concerns and pay subscription fees to him, "the bad" high subsription fee earner!!!

03/13/10 Calmar Ratio, says FXtimer! What he does not say/know, unfortunately, is that CR is applicable, by definition, only if you have 36 months of data available for CR computation. Does he have enough data?

03/31/10 As they put it, "clever" risk management on the way to someone's " financial independence". Still a $12,000 loss is the same whether it is taken over 3 losing trades in a row or on a single losing trade.

12/11/ 09 SP = 12.5 $/hr
04/09/10 EUR/USD trading does not go so well lately using MPower's digital filtering method.
"proprietory spectral analysys".. World's top mathematicians/theoretical physicists(quants) had had a very tough time applying spectral analysis to financial markets, including FX, for many years while working for quantitative hedge funds. Hope MPower's creator knows something about his own brand of spectral analysis that they are not aware of yet.

10/31/09 $48 per trade. $/hr = 13.6.
03/10/10 3489% CAR means nothing, if what you keep after slippage is -28.8%. That is the bottom line.

2/25/10 The 2 star review sounds fair: 55% accuracy combined with w/l = 1.17.
I have tried to find out how MN&R correlares with the suggested G2MSPO for a portfolio.
However, Kevin hides his G2MSPO trading data for 7 days, making it impossible to compute any correlation of the two systems. Why?
3/08/10 Kevin had responded to the above comment via his forum.
Still he has not answered the above question: Why does he need to hide his data for seven days? His offer to share his trading data with me via my private e-mail, bypassing the public view on C2, is not acceptable, and possibly offensive to the other members of C2.
Besides, the idea is to use the C2 portfolio building tool. Therefore, I need his data to be displayed on C2. I am only interested in quantitative analysis of his systems not in having forum discussions with Kevin.

11/26/09 Here RISK/RETURN is hardly ever near 1, even on average. So it is not really scalping. Just trading without stop loss orders. $/hr = 7.