Find System by Name

Wait

Quick Links

Watch List

Drag any system on page
to here.

 

Forum: System: Schulenberg 2X-Hedged IWM (^IWM2)

New?Last PostPosted By#Subject
10/12/12 (0:29)Craig Schulenberg1Market Timing Indicator + Prediction for 10/12/12
10/10/12 (0:45)Craig Schulenberg1Market Timing Indicator + Prediction for 10/10/12
10/09/12 (0:02)Craig Schulenberg1Market Timing Indicator + Prediction for 10/9/12
10/07/12 (23:02)Craig Schulenberg1Market Timing Indicator + Prediction for 10/8/12
10/05/12 (0:50)Craig Schulenberg1Market Timing Indicator + Prediction for 10/5/12
10/04/12 (0:25)Craig Schulenberg1Market Timing Indicator + Prediction for 10/4/12
10/03/12 (0:07)Craig Schulenberg1Market Timing Indicator + Prediction for 10/3/12
 
Older subjects >>


Post new message

 
 
*** PREDICTION for the Next Trading Day:
For Monday we say: “The market will likely improve somewhat on Monday, giving us some BUY signals once again. However, the Market Timing Indicator (MTI) remains low, and at 0.2321 it is better than Friday's figure but still well below the 'neutral' (1.0000) line. Encouragingly, however, our main financial signal (XLF) has flipped back to a BUY for the first time since 4/24/12 and this may prove to be very significant. So, we expect that the market will show stability on Monday, and may very well move somewhat higher … global news permitting, of course. Our long-term (mutual fund) signals remain in the BUY state, and this suggests that the market still has a firm 'floor' under it”.
*** SCORING of Previous PREDICTION:
For Friday we had said: “We may very well have a strong opening on Friday because of the Facebook IPO, but in any event our indicators suggest going to Cash. We have very few Shorting signals, however, and it may very well be that the worst is behind us; our long-term (mutual fund) signals, for example, remain in the BUY state. Although there is still considerable negativity in the Market Timing Indicator (MTI) (now at 0.1996) and the Market Assessment (BNB) indicator (still 'Bearish'), our neural networks are continuing to improve – suggesting an impending bounce (that is long overdue). Despite some 'misses' in the past week, we think that the market will likely do well on Friday”.
How did we do? The Forecast for Friday was 'fair'; certainly Cash positions were appropriate, although Shorting would have been arguably more productive than we had thought.
*** Note: The MTI can range from about -2.5 to +2.5, with a 'neutral' value of 1.0. A value of 1.0 will generally be associated with a market that is either stable (holding its valuations) or rising slowly and erratically. Values greater than 1.0 signify a 'long' market, while values substantially below 1.0 (and especially zero or negative) signify shorting situations. Although the MTI is extremely useful (especially in the construction of equity-specific models), bear in mind that it has a reaction time of several days. It is thus not sufficient to use this indicator alone for trading specific equities
  
SubscribePost a reply to this
Back up to list of subjects