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Forum: System: Basket Futures I

New?Last PostPosted By#Subject
1/16/12 (0:22)Marat Salgan11Weekly comentary
10/20/11 (7:22)Marat Salgan2Technical problem
10/07/11 (2:14)Marat Salgan5Questions & Answers from subscribers
9/05/11 (3:20)Marat Salgan3Basket Futures I Description
8/15/11 (10:56)Marat Salgan1Service interuption

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Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:9/26/11 (7:06) 
Systems:
 
I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of customer care effort. Request to subscribers: Please, do not post any replies to this root message. Thanks you.
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:9/26/11 (7:19) 
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In response to post by Marat Salgan of 9/26/11 (7:06)

I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of custo...

See entire

Week Friday, September 23.
Strong news across the board provided markets with unprecedented moves. Basket Futures I responded appropriately cutting losses and flipping direction. As a result a large portion of the move was captured in many markets and some profits carried over to this week. While it is pleasing to observe gains, please remember events like these are infrequent. Do not expect this level of performance in the short term. Remember, it took three previous weeks of sideways markets to get us here.
C2 shows that there are actively trading subscribers with the Basket Futures I now. I will do my best supporting production environment and timely signal broadcasting. I wish you all Good Luck and Strong News!
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:10/03/11 (0:45) 
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In response to post by Marat Salgan of 9/26/11 (7:06)

I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of custo...

See entire

Friday, September 30.
Week began choppy but ended with strong trends. Not like previous but Basket Futures I captured some healthy profits. I would like to remind that there WILL BE weeks ending with losses. In simulation over last six month there has been 3 loosing weeks per each profitable. Trading subscribers should be prepared for this. This is normal course of business.

Basket Futures I tends to have a wide spread between unrealized and realized profit. On average it goes down from peak unrealized to captured by 5K for each 9 contracts trading. So, If there is 15K unrealized on 18 contracts then system will likely to capture 5K ON AVERAGE.

Another important observation. Once an account is filled with positions, first to close are mostly loosing positions. Profitable positions are closed much later. Loosers last roughly 12-24 hours, while profitables last 24-48. Be prepared for such behavior, it is normal for this type of trading.

I would like to wish trading subscribers Good Luck and Strong News.
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:10/10/11 (3:02) 
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In response to post by Marat Salgan of 9/26/11 (7:06)

I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of custo...

See entire

Friday, October 07.
Choppy beginning and end and the end of the week. All profits Basket Futures I made in mid week where taken away on Friday. While this is normal, it is always displeasing to loose money. Good thing these where mostly profits from previous few days. We watched a substantial portion of unrealized profits reverse as well. This usually happen when markets are directionless, as during last week.

While a number of measures where take to reduce whipsaw trades, it is difficult to avoid them completely. Especially large impact comes from Silver and Gold. I am considering switching to mini contracts on NYMEX (QI and QO respectively). System will loose in wider spread and lower liquidity but gain stability in lower P&L impact on the account. I just have to make sure that switch does not require changes to the system. Will keep subscribers posted.

Good Luck and Strong News.
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:10/17/11 (12:44) 
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In response to post by Marat Salgan of 9/26/11 (7:06)

I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of custo...

See entire

October 14.
We finished a tough week. Markets where mostly directionless. Basket Futures I was in a bit of unrealized profit by the end of the week. It is a second choppy week in the row.
I would like to remind subscribers that this is normal. Trends are going to come out of nowhere. We can not tell when. So we have to take every trade and be consistent. When they come, we will be there to take advantage.
In that respect following a trading system is like any other business. But there is no purchasing, customers, employees or rents. So, the draw-downs we withstand is the price we pay for profitable performance. We have to be able to trade through them in order to reap the fruits of high gains.
Good Luck and Strong News
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:10/24/11 (3:59) 
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In response to post by Marat Salgan of 9/26/11 (7:06)

I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of custo...

See entire

Friday October 21.
And I thought previous week was difficult. We had a very tough Thursday, when most markets where opened and then closed with a loss. This was the first draw-down for me, when subscribers traded and lost real capital. I really felt it as if it was my own money. I know I warned about this happening many times, and yet every loss is very displeasing.

So I realized that there are two types of capital necessary while trading: financial and emotional. We understand how to evaluate financial capitalization and per trade risk. The key goal here is to have enough money to survive the expense and start trading next day as if nothing happen. This is the only way to capture trends when they come. Since it is not possible to predict when trends begin, the only strategy systematic trading offers it to take every signal. On the plus side, almost all expenses where under 2K which is what system aims at. Another plus came from Gold and Silver finally delivering a profit. This profit offset some of the expenses.

I realized that it is my responsibility to instill greater emotional confidence in subscribers. We have accumulated some emotional capital during profit period, when Basket Futures I was making money. Over the weekend I put some effort forth to provide more. I published simulated trading results for the last seven month. Copy this link http://sites.google.com/site/basketportfolios and paste to your web browser to get to the Basket Portfolios web site. You can not click on it, use "Select Text" and "Copy & Paste" instead. Site is simple and self explanatory. Follow instructions to get simulation trading reports. Analyzing these reports will give you a better understanding of system's dynamic and draw downs. I hope this will increase subscribers faith with Basket Futures I ability to recover from expenses and in turn increase emotional capitalization.

Good Luck and Strong News
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:11/01/11 (4:22) 
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In response to post by Marat Salgan of 9/26/11 (7:06)

I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of custo...

See entire

Friday, October 28.
Third week of losses. System's maximum draw-down from the peak reached 15%. Markets just do not give. Twice system accumulated some gains to loose them next day. Choppy, choppy trading conditions.
Theoretically now might be the best time to start trading Basket Futures I. The tighter the spring of the markets is wound, the stronger the jump will be. Theoretically...
Good Luck and Strong News.
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:11/07/11 (13:06) 
Systems:
 

In response to post by Marat Salgan of 9/26/11 (7:06)

I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of custo...

See entire

Friday, November 4.
Yet another week of losses. That is the real price of trend following. There is no way of telling when the markets will get in motion. Until they do, the system will continue to experience expenses.
If I add some sort of filter to avoid these periods, the entries will always be late. And the total performance will deteriorate. But do make your own judgment.
Good Luck and Strong News.
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:12/05/11 (0:46) 
Systems:
 

In response to post by Marat Salgan of 9/26/11 (7:06)

I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of custo...

See entire

It is obvious to me now, that the system needs improvement. Prolonged trendless periods kill all profit. I will develop a way to determine current state of the market and only trade when market is trending. Sort of like entry filter. It will also filter out some of the good entries. But it should reduce the impact of extended sideways markets we experience at the moment.
Good Luck and Strong News.
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:zen trading ( C2 Score: 974)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:12/21/11 (5:00) 
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In response to post by Marat Salgan of 12/05/11 (0:46)

It is obvious to me now, that the system needs improvement. Prolonged trendless periods kill all profit. I will develop a way to determine current state of the market and only trade when market is trending. Sort of like entry filter. It will also filter out some of the good entries. But it should reduce the impact of extended sideways markets we experience at the moment....

See entire

Hello, has any change (eg filter) been implemented yet?

Thanks!
  
 
Subject:Weekly comentary
Posted by:Marat Salgan (Admin) ( C2 Score: 939)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:1/16/12 (0:22) 
Systems:
 

In response to post by Marat Salgan of 9/26/11 (7:06)

I would like to establish a weekly ritual providing commentary to the previous week performance. This is a part of custo...

See entire

Dear subscribers,

I think it is time now to pull the plug. Basket Futures I had a good run. But conditions of the last three month clearly showed that an improvement is needed. I am currently working on the filtering system. Once ready for production, I am planning to create a new system to trade it.

If you have any advice or request the time to voice them is now. On January 18 the system will stop trading. Begin closing your positions if you have any.
Good luck to you all.
  
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