TrueOrange ForeX
(26681852)
Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $115.00 per month.
C2Star
C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.
You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.
Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.
Rate of Return Calculations
Overview
To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.
How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated
= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity
Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.
All results are hypothetical.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | +27.7% | +26.6% | (13.1%) | +27.6% | +5.6% | (10.1%) | - | +70.1% | |||||
| 2008 | - | - | - | - | +0.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | +0.7% |
| 2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2010 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2011 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2012 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2013 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2014 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2015 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2016 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2017 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2018 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2019 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2020 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2021 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2022 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2023 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2024 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2025 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
| 2026 | - | - | - | - | - |
Model Account Details
A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.
Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.
| Started | $100,000 | |
| Buy Power | $176,783 | |
| Cash | $176,783 | |
| Equity | $0 | |
| Cumulative $ | $76,783 | |
| Total System Equity | $176,783 | |
| Margined | $0 | |
| Open P/L | $0 |
Trading Record
symbol.
Statistics
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Strategy began6/8/2007
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Suggested Minimum Cap$100,000
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Strategy Age (days)6931.17
-
Age231 months ago
-
What it tradesForex
-
# Trades113
-
# Profitable57
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% Profitable50.40%
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Avg trade duration1.7 days
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Max peak-to-valley drawdown50.73%
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drawdown periodJuly 20, 2007 - Aug 28, 2007
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Annual return (compounded)3.0%
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Avg win$4,476
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Avg loss$3,218
- Model Account Values (Raw)
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Cash$176,783
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Margin Used$0
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Buying Power$176,783
- Ratios
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W:L ratio1.42:1
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Sharpe Ratio0.11
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Sortino Ratio0.16
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Calmar Ratio0.21
- CORRELATION STATISTICS
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Correlation to SP5000.06460
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Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)64.19%
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Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life402.96%
- Return Statistics
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Ann Return (w trading costs)16.5%
- Instruments
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Percent Trades Optionsn/a
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Percent Trades Futuresn/a
- Slump
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Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.98%
- Instruments
-
Percent Trades Stocksn/a
- Slump
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Current Slump as Pcnt Equity23.60%
- Return Statistics
-
Return Pcnt Since TOS Statusn/a
- Instruments
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Percent Trades Forex1.00%
- Return Statistics
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Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.0%
- Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
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Chance of 10% account loss68.75%
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Chance of 20% account loss82.35%
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Chance of 30% account loss27.78%
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Chance of 40% account loss15.79%
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Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)10.00%
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Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a
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Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a
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Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a
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Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a
- Automation
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Percentage Signals Automatedn/a
- Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
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Chance of 50% account loss5.00%
- Trading Style
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Any stock shorts? 0/10
- Trades-Own-System Certification
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Trades Own System?-
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TOS percentn/a
- Win / Loss
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Avg Win$4,476
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Avg Loss$3,219
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Sum Trade PL (losers)$180,257.000
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Sum Trade PL (winners)$255,140.000
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# Winners57
- Dividends
-
Dividends Received in Model Acct0
- Win / Loss
-
Num Months Winners8
- Age
-
Num Months filled monthly returns table228
- Win / Loss
-
# Losers56
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% Winners50.4%
- Frequency
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Avg Position Time (mins)2408.53
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Avg Position Time (hrs)40.14
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Avg Trade Length1.7 days
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Last Trade Ago6779
- Regression
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Alpha0.00
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Beta0.05
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Treynor Index0.11
- Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
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MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.31
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MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
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Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.213
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MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat-
-
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat-
-
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats21.22
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MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats24.47
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MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
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MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)-
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MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy-
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MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
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MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
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MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)-
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Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.377
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Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.054
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Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.237
- Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
- RATIO STATISTICS
- Ratio statistics of excess return rates
- Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
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a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08500
- Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
- Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
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VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02600
- DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
- Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
- assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
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Max Equity Drawdown (num days)39
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Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negativen/a
Strategy Description
UPDATE
I wanted to inform people of the goings on with this trading system. Unfortunately, I was in the process of relocating to California and was not going to be able to maintain the system for some weeks. I entrusted the trading to, who at the time was, a good friend. Unfortunately, this individual did not stick to the guidelines that I had laid out for him and agreed upon. He took a loss, then another, and before long, he was trading poorly and recklessly trying to make up the losses before I saw what had happened. To make matters worse, I had no access to the internet for quite some time and when I talked to him via telephone, he gave me glowing reports. I figured things were going quite well as he indicated.
To make a long story short, this good and trusted friend is no longer either to me. I revoked his control over the trading as soon as I was able to and when I learned of the goings on. For weeks I struggled with what to do. I wasnt sure if I should stop the program completely or try and regroup and recoup the losses. After some long consideration, I decided on the latter and I began trading again in the middle of September. Im sure you can tell when I retook control of the trading because we have been making a good deal of money since then.
I want to first off apologize to my subscribers. I thought I was doing the best thing by having the system maintained in my absence. In actuality, I was making a grave mistake. I should have known better than to trust another individual to do the job that has taken me years of experience to master. It was foolish on my behalf and if I could do it over again, I would.
Most of my subscribers have left me, I do not blame them. But to those that stuck it out, I thank you. Maybe you have faith in me, maybe you simply forgot to unsubscribe. I feel that I have begun to reprove myself and my system and I hope that subscribers from the past and new ones alike begin to see the success that we can have together and join again soon.
I have decided to change the subscription cost to $15 per profitable trade for several reasons. I want to give people a chance to see that I am still the great trader that I was at the early days of this system and I dont feel like I should be making a profit unless my subscribers are making one. If you do not think this is fair or have suggestions for a better fee structure, please PM me and I will consider all avenuse.
Thank you for your time, patience and support,
Travis
UPDATE
TrueOrange ForeX is a system devised for the casual trader. We know you may not be comfortable auto-trading many systems because you want to have control over your trades and your investment funds. All of our trade recommendations will allow sufficient time for entries and exits. Most trades will be entered through limit orders so there is rarely an urgency to be at your computer to enter a trade. We believe that a successful trader wishes to lead a flexible and self-determined life style. Ones trading approach should strive to accommodate such desires. We will almost always advise trades based on two different approaches. We call these Step Trades and Level Trades.
Level Trades: Level trades are those in which we take our full position exposure at one particular price level. The trade is entered with an intended target and stop loss. Level trades are usually entered when we believe price has reached a significant support or resistance level and risk can be easily controlled and constrained to a specific technical level.
Step Trades: Finding the perfect moment to enter a trade is alway a daunting task. That is why many of our trades will be Step Trades. In a Step Trade, we will buy or sell a currency pair a number of times in equal increments between entries up to a certain, predetermined technical level. We "step" into our full position one price level at a time. We strongly believe in trend trading and will scale into trades at different price levels in order to take advantage of retracements within the overall trend. An example of a Step Trade is as follows:
USD/CAD has been trading in a strong downtrend for several weeks. We hesitate to sell the pair at current levels be cause it is extremely oversold. First, we determine a potential scenario for retracement. We decide that our entire exposure to USD/CAD shorts will be 120 mini lots. We set short entries above current prices, anticipating a slight rally before the downtrend continues. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.0600 and we decides to set 4 entries points of 30 mini lots each. The orders are placed to sell USD/CAD at 1.0630, 1.0660, 1.0690, and 1.0720. We determine that a breach of the 1.0750 area would argue for further potential gains and we place a stop loss at this level to limit any losses. Our overall target on this trade is for 1.0500 price level. USD/CAD begins to rally as expected and we are filled on 3 of our 4 orders. We are now short USD/CAD with an average entry of 1.0660. As USD/CAD begins to fall, we will take profits on our worst entry (1.0630) well before the final profit target. We will usually save the best 2 entries for the final profit target. We do this because we believe in limiting our risk and taking partial profits on our positions.
This example was an actual scenario that we traded on June 7th, 2007. At the time of this writing, USD/CAD has fallen to the 1.0600 level, leaving all of our entries in profit. We will be taking profits on our worst entry at 1.0580 and saving the best two for the final target of 1.0500
Here at TrueOrange ForeX we strongly believe in limiting risk and carrying our winners for as much profit as possible. We do not take an excessive number of trades, but focus more on quality rather than quantity. We appreciate your time and consideration in subscribing to our trading system and welcome any comments or suggestions.
Latest Activity
Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.
Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.
Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results
The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.
- Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
- Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
- All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
- "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.
Trading is risky
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Not available
This feature isn't available under your current Trade Leader Plan.
Strategy is now visible
This strategy is now visible to the public. New subscribers will be able to follow it.
If you designate your strategy as Private, it will no longer be visible to the public.
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If you have simulations, they will be stopped.
Continue to designate your strategy as Private?
Strategy is no longer visible
This strategy is no longer visible to anyone except current subscribers.
(Current subscribers will remain subscribed. You can see who is subscribed, and control their subscriptions, on your Subscriber Management screen.)
Finally, please note that you can restore public visibility at any time.
This strategy is no longer visible to the public. No subscribers will be allowed.
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Suggested Minimum Capital
This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.