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THESPECULATOR




Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes typical commissions and system fees)

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2007                                                               (9.7%)(46.8%)(6%)
2008(46.8%)(18.4%)+10.8%(13.5%)(3.9%)(3.1%)+18.3%+8.1%+15.1%+23.1%+7.7%+11.2%
2009(4.1%)(3.1%)(0.4%)(4.4%)(7.6%)+3.0%(3.2%)+1.9%(6.8%)+0.9%(1.2%)+0.8%
2010(1.1%)+3.0%(4.7%)+5.1%+14.1%+5.8%(18.9%)+18.5%(7.1%)(0.2%)(2.5%)(1.4%)
2011(7.1%)(1.8%)+1.9%+5.0%+1.3%+3.7%(0.2%)+3.2%+1.9%+2.8%+0.9%+2.3%
2012(5%)(4.1%)(1.4%)+2.0%+6.0%(2.7%)(1.9%)(1.6%)+2.5%(1%)(0.6%)+0.6%
2013(8.1%)+2.7%+1.2%(0.8%)(2.5%)                                          
There is a substantial risk of loss when trading futures, forex, stocks, or options. Hide this

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Show chart:  Standard  |  Monte Carlo
Technical Analysis:  Moving Average daysX

Instruments Stocks, Options
Strategies Technical analysis, Volatility trading, Arbitrage, Market timing
System started 10/16/2007 (68 months ago)
System developer THESPECULATOR
(Last login to C2: 1/31/08 8:28)
C2 Score: 208



Recently Closed Trades

CSVHide NamesDetails


Hypothetical Trading Results
Opened ETB/S#Symbol PriceClosedPriceRiskP/L
1/3/08 15:19 BUY 200 HRBMW HRB Jan08 17.5 put 0.65 1/10
14:43		 0.30 Very ($7,380)
1/3/08 13:54 BUY 45,000 MODT 0.99 1/4
9:42		 0.90 High ($4,950)
1/3/08 15:45 SELL 400 PLD PROLOGIS 59.09 1/3
15:51		 59.00 Low $28
1/3/08 15:40 BUY 300 SPN SUPERIOR ENERGY SVCS INC 42.97 1/3
15:44		 42.88 Low ($33)
1/3/08 15:27 SELL 1,000 GGP GENERAL GROWTH PROPS INC 38.63 1/3
15:30		 38.50 n/a $110
1/3/08 15:20 SELL 500 CNX CONSOL ENERGY INC 69.05 1/3
15:26		 69.08 Low ($25)
1/3/08 14:59 BUY 500 SPN SUPERIOR ENERGY SVCS INC 43.53 1/3
15:04		 43.40 Low ($75)
1/3/08 14:20 BUY 900 SPN SUPERIOR ENERGY SVCS INC 43.00 1/3
14:58		 43.45 Low $387
1/3/08 14:06 BUY 900 SPN SUPERIOR ENERGY SVCS INC 42.88 1/3
14:20		 42.96 Low $54
1/3/08 10:07 BUY 20 NGAU NG Jan08 7.5 call 2.75 1/3
13:28		 2.70 Low ($138)
1/2/08 9:40 BUY 500 NCCMC NCC Jan08 15 put 0.60 1/3
9:40		 0.55 High ($3,450)
1/2/08 9:38 BUY 200 GGPMH GGP Jan08 40 put 1.70 1/3
9:40		 1.45 Very ($5,380)
12/28/07 10:03 BUY 100 TEPMD TOL Jan08 20 put 0.95 12/31
13:16		 0.75 Normal ($2,190)
12/28/07 9:45 BUY 20 MTGME MTG Jan08 25 put 4.00 12/31
13:16		 3.80 Low ($438)
12/28/07 10:25 BUY 100 RYLMY RYL Jan08 27.5 put 2.20 12/31
13:15		 1.50 High ($7,190)

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Statistics

Analytics  
All Statistics Based on Hypothetical Results
Trades145
# Profitable55 (37.9%)
# months tracked68
Profitable months31 (45.6%)
Avg trade duration14.9 days
Annual return (compounded)-7.1%
Average win$3,734
Average loss$2,650
Profit factor0.9:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)74.95%
drawdown periodNov 06, 2007 to Dec 17, 2007
Correlation w/ S&P0.012
Sharpe ratio-0.274
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss1.0%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)-0.10
Average P/L per unit traded($4.30)


Reviews


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System Description

THIS SYSTEM TRIES TO CAPTURE THE NEAR TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM MOVEMENT OF SPECIFIC STOCK SECTORS & INDSTRIES BASED UPON FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.

- This System Description text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that this text above is an accurate system description. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Overview

MARKET TIMING OF SECTOR TRENDS
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- This text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified the Overview text above. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Model Account Status

Started$100,000
Buy Power$60,573
Cash$77,106
Equity$13,264
Cumulative $*($33,916)
Dividends Itemized
Total System Equity$66,084
Margined$29,797
Open P/L$13,264


System Forum

All
the final countdown
SPECULATOR WALLST at 1/21/08 15:31ET

eventhough I stepped away from the collective2 system since I had to worry about my own trading and my system had failed, You can see that w...

DISCIPLINE & RISK MANAGEMENT
SPECULATOR WALLST at 12/28/07 8:29ET

this is to all subscribers: after trading for many years , I will only say one thing that the final success of a trader will and only lie wi...

Happy Holidays from the Speculator
SPECULATOR WALLST at 12/25/07 10:32ET

To all members
SPECULATOR WALLST at 12/21/07 20:48ET

As you can see, this system had recovered a lot of its previous losses. It will be in the black in a very short period of time. Looking forw...

Crowd Opinion

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