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mvp-3

What it trades: Stocks Strategies: Technical analysis, Market timing

Hypothetical Monthly Results

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2007                                                                      +11.6%  -  
2008+2.3%+1.4%+14.1%+23.4%+15.5%+2.1%+19.6%(9.4%)(33.2%)(13.8%)+37.4%+12.9%
2009(23.4%)+5.2%+25.4%+63.8%(29.4%)+1.1%(17.5%)+9.1%+25.0%(7%)+14.8%(0.1%)
2010(6.2%)(7.5%)(13.3%)(8.4%)(5.9%)(21.1%)+18.9%(3.3%)(8.9%)                  

 
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Subscription Terms

$39 per month (Details)

Subscriptions cost $39 per month. (That is, we will charge you every 30 days - not when the month name on the calendar changes. So it's okay to sign up towards the end of a calendar month. You'll still get a full 30 days.)



Strategy Description 


MVP-3 is a completely TA indicator based computer program which trades the SP400 mid cap index via proshares etfs mVV and mZZ. See yahoo group for more details. NOTE: all results since October 2008 have been achieved with sharply reduced margin usage as well as shorter holding periods.
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- This text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that text above is an accurate Strategy Description. (Contact System Developer)




Recently Closed Trades

Details

System creator requested that closed trades data below be delayed by seven days.

Opened ET B/S # Symbol   Price Closed Price Risk P/L
8/17/10 9:50 BUY 450 MVV ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES 42.68 8/20 9:50 41.13 Normal ($698)
8/11/10 9:50 BUY 330 MVV ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES 43.70 8/13 9:50 41.83 Normal ($617)
7/26/10 9:51 BUY 980 MZZ PROSHARES ULTRSRT MC 400 17.61 8/11 9:50 18.19 Normal $573
5/17/10 9:50 BUY 650 MVV ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES 47.56 7/26 9:50 43.35 Extreme ($2,733)
5/13/10 9:51 BUY 1,050 MZZ PROSHARES ULTRSRT MC 400 16.48 5/17 9:50 17.36 Low $924
5/11/10 15:30 BUY 340 MVV ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES 50.23 5/13 9:51 52.28 Low $697
5/5/10 9:50 BUY 340 MVV ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES 50.66 5/7 9:50 47.38 Extreme ($1,115)
4/29/10 9:50 BUY 330 MVV ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES 54.92 5/3 9:50 54.16 Normal ($251)
4/5/10 9:50 BUY 1,100 MZZ PROSHARES ULTRSRT MC 400 17.47 4/29 9:50 16.14 Very ($1,461)
2/1/10 9:50 BUY 2,040 MZZ PROSHARES ULTRSRT MC 400 22.52 3/8 9:50 20.11 Extreme ($4,910)
1/22/10 9:51 BUY 685 MVV ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES 42.69 1/27 9:50 41.22 Normal ($1,003)
1/7/10 9:50 BUY 1,440 MZZ PROSHARES ULTRSRT MC 400 21.10 1/22 9:50 21.38 Normal $403
12/7/09 9:50 BUY 1,370 MZZ PROSHARES ULTRSRT MC 400 23.35 1/4/10 9:50 21.35 Very ($2,742)
11/27/09 9:50 BUY 650 MVV ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES 36.81 12/4 9:50 39.85 Low $1,975
11/16/09 9:50 BUY 970 MZZ PROSHARES ULTRSRT MC 400 23.46 11/20 9:50 24.86 Low $1,357

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Reviews

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May 19, 2010 from Subscriber

This system does not work plain and simple. It has ridiculously wild swings and simply put will lose you money. The owner adds in new functionality almost at whim from his over eager group members. If anyone posts a negative comment he simply waits until the system is positive and rebukes the others statements. As of now this system has lost over 5% for 7 out of the last 8 months. Since the market bottom last March the system has underperformed the simple index buy and hold, by at least -20%. I traded this system for over a year and lost alot of capital doing so - I would not recommend this system.

 
Aug 21, 2009 from Subscriber

First, I believe the developer is a very nice; hard working guy. Unfortunately that does not make you money. MVP-3 is a work in progress and is being continually retooled. Money management does not seem to be a high priority as evidenced by the huge drawdowns. I think the developer is probably a computer whiz who thought he could sell a system with outsized results but in reality does either not understand risk/money management or is just very poor at it.

Rebuttal, posted on Dec 4, 2009 by system developer:

12/4/09-update
I just went over the closed trades since this review was posted.
$10,000 invested in the trade in play at the time of the review would now be $20,292.
This is a gain by trades published of 100% in approx 3.5 months.
All systems here at C2 will have losers and drawdowns, most certainly including mvp. What matters is where they go over months and years.
Using C2's list of published trades for this system, 10,000 has turned into 26,000 since 11/2007, including all losers and drawdowns.
 
Aug 16, 2009 from Subscriber

System makes chaotic moves while market is steady rising. It seems MVP-3 does not work anymore. I was never convinced choosing illiquid EFTs like MVV and MZZ is a good idea to begin with.

Rebuttal, posted on Dec 4, 2009 by system developer:

12/4/09-update
I just went over the closed trades since this review was posted.
$10,000 invested in the trade in play at the time of the review would now be $20,292.
This is a gain by trades published of 100% in approx 3.5 months.
All systems here at C2 will have losers and drawdowns, most certainly including mvp. What matters is where they go over months and years.
Using C2's list of published trades for this system, 10,000 has turned into 26,000 since 11/2007, including all losers and drawdowns and using the same ETF's.
 
Aug 14, 2009 from Subscriber

Curve-fitting has hurt this system. The latest back-test shows a 3,600% return for last year and 150% for this year so far. The reality is much less. I still have hope that he can turn it around, but I'm not sure why. He is a nice guy though.

Rebuttal, posted on Aug 15, 2009 by system developer:

I appreciate your insights and just wanted to post the comment I published about the theoretical 2008 results.
(1): The year 2008 featured some of the wildest high volatility fluctuations ever seen and should not be considered in judging any mvp performance backtests, in my opinion.
 
July 31, 2009 from Subscriber

It's no trading system.....alas, only an experiment. Buy it and trade the promoter's $.

Rebuttal, posted on Dec 4, 2009 by system developer:

12/4/09-I just went over mvp trades posted since this review; and they would have turned $10,000 into $19,000 , in approx 4 months.
Mvp will have losers and drawdowns like all mechanical systems, what matters is where do you end up months and years later.
 
July 30, 2009 from AutoTrader

Apparently human intervention of signals contradict the description "a completely TA indicator based computer program". The vendor needs to stop using recent curve fitting result to give people the illusion all the previous problem has been resolved. In reality, it only aggravates the problem by incurring recency bias. The system has some merits. High drawdown is not the reason for difficulty in trading, but unpredictability of the system is.

Rebuttal, posted on Dec 5, 2009 by system developer:

update 12/5/09-I just went over the trades posted since this review and they come out to a gain of 60% in roughly 4 months.
 
July 28, 2009 from Subscriber

A classic lesson that curve fitting does not work in real-life trading. This system is very difficult to trade, as it can stay in the wrong direction for a very long time based on recent curve fitting result, keep using margin hoping to recover loss instead of going with the trend. The vendor is very honest but is working too hard to release NEW re-optimized version into mvp-3 based on recent data whenever large DD happens. This makes C2 historical live records meaningless, no matter how good it looks. Subscribers should not be treated as guinea pigs of the NEW release. The vendor should start a different C2 system to test new system for at least 6 months before having subscribers test it using real money.

Rebuttal, posted on July 29, 2009 by system developer:

7/29/09-3rd time this review has been slightly altered then re-posted
 
April 21, 2009 from Subscriber

I've only been trading this system for 3 weeks, so it's too early to give it 5 stars. However, I've had 5 fairly large winners and no losers in that time and my actual fills have been as good or better than C2's fills.

 
April 20, 2009 from Subscriber

 
March 2, 2009 from Subscriber

Hard working vendor keeps on updating the system to get the best back test result. However, real time performance is getting worse. No stop in such volatile market combined with bad timing makes the system a "wish me luck" gambling machine.

Rebuttal, posted on May 1, 2009 by system developer:

update 4/29/09 - since this review there have been gains of over 100% audited here in real-time, using the same program logic and sharply reduced use of margin. Entries & exits are dictated by TA indicators.
 
Dec 9, 2008 from Subscriber

Great system, great developer, very active in discussion with subscribers and constantly working to improve the system. System had a couple bad months due to astounding de-leveraging in the markets (and government intervention), but is now back on track. Over all, even if you had followed the system to the letter, you'd still be ahead. Many of us decided to sit it out for a while while the government was temporarily suspending capitalism and did much better than the C2 results. Also, I've only know the developer for about six months, and I've never hear him 'crow' about anything, much less his system. Not exactly sure who that other commenter is writing about... Dave Narby

 
Dec 2, 2008 from Subscriber

A reply to the Nov 17th reviewer, you are 100% correct, no matter how good the vendors intentions are after a short period he will be proven wrong again and again. Why would anyone want to sell a system that was a consistant winner...

 
Nov 17, 2008 from Subscriber

Another bitter lesson on the use of historical data to predict future market moves. There could not be a harder-working vendor, or one more dedicated to keeping his subs informed. Unfortunately, the market often does not act in the deliberate, controlled, way that previous events would predict. The monthly returns above are stark evidence of what the real world gives forth. It's really too bad..I had a lot of hope for this system..and will limp away with a large part of my posterior missing. My view, after being burned by a couple of C2 systems..and seeing my own system fail, and whipsaw..is that I am done with timing systems and will invest heavily in income-producting fixed assets.

Rebuttal, posted on April 30, 2009 by system developer:

Just an update 4/29/09- from the time of this review to present, the system equity has increased by over 100%, bringing it back to the pre-sept.08 level and this has been done with sharply reduced margin, using the same indicators and historical data.
 
Nov 2, 2008 from Subscriber

Revised review after the crash... Story book performance destroyed by the market turmoil the past couple of months. Stop-loss order was a disaster. Discretionary trades after the stop-loss were just as bad, maybe worse. Nonetheless, I expect this system to resume profitability soon. Just proceed with caution (hedging via married puts, trailing stop losses, limited capital investment amount etc.)

 
Oct 27, 2008 from Subscriber

System vendor is honest,hard working and communicates well. Sadly, my fear that no mechanical system works forever is backed up here. After recent turmoil, the system has been tweaked and may be worth monitoring for an upturn in fortunes.

 
Oct 24, 2008 from Subscriber

Crashed and burned. too much leverage, stops too wide or none at all. Too much hubris. Back below starting value so all subscribers have lost money.

Rebuttal, posted on April 29, 2009 by system developer:

Update 4/29/09- the gains since this review are over 100% , bringing it back to the pre-sept.08 level , all done with sharply reduced margin.
 
Sept 26, 2008 from Subscriber

Would have been 5 stars bf last 2 trades. Actually got out of the big losing trade at a nice profit bc I was at my computer or there should of at least been a tighter stop. These leveraged etfs can't be traded in volatile mkts unless the vendor is sitting at his terminal instead of out somewhere else. In trending markets he'll do fine, the current environment this system will hurt you. Stephen your initial signals are right on but r u out during the day?

Rebuttal, posted on April 29, 2009 by system developer:

update 4/29/09 - all gains since this review have been done with end of day signals only and sharply reduced margin usage.
9/26/08-not a rebuttal, just an answer. MVP-3 is definitely intended as an end of day signal only. I have intervened twice in recent months during the day but thats it.

regards, Steve
 
Sept 21, 2008 from AutoTrader

Yes sept 19th was terrible. But you can't base your judgement of the system on one event. It's gotta great track record and I plan on trading it's next signal.

 
Sept 19, 2008 from AutoTrader

About a week ago, when there were signs of huge volatile days ahead, I got out of all my ETF based auto traded systems and switched to equivalent futures contract, entering them manually, while still following the system but with the peace of mind of having my discretionary stops in place day and night. That got me safely out with a nice profit (for this system I substituted ES for EMD because EMD has poor liquidity). That begs the question: Why is any system developer still using ETFs when they can use futures instead? By the way, I still like the basic signals of mvp-3.

 
Sept 19, 2008 from Subscriber

-The vender is a nice guy. -Leaving a single position overnight with full margin is not my favorite. -The risk control for EOD system is very difficult, especially in extreme market conditions. Yes, the vendor did use stop and issue the sell signal after the big rally, but it is too late. You HAVE to watch the market sometime, otherwise stay away from it. -The volume of MVV/MZZ is too low. I use a combo of SSO/QLD/DDM instead. About C2: - Instead of following those high-hands, it is more important to LEARN, and then develop your own system. -I only use C2 as reference and always set my own stop and profit-taking points. Sometimes I did better, sometimes not, but I know exactly how much I can lose. -THE MOST IMPORTANT, if you auto-trade C2, ONLY use the money you can afford to lose.

 
Sept 19, 2008 from AutoTrader

It's a pity to see how today's market intervention by the government (not a bad thing per se) marred an otherwise great record for this system. All subs should be aware that all systems try to repeat what they've learned from past history, and "black swan"events are beyond their reach. Going forward, and barring more intervention, markets should stabilize and go back to trading normally, a situation in which mvp-3 shines.

Rebuttal, posted on Sept 19, 2008 by system developer:

not a rebuttal. In addition to agreeing with you I just wanted to add that many parts of the program come from living thru events that were unforeseen and then adding improved ways to handle them. This then becomes the next area I address. I am not saying these events can be foreseen, rather, what could have been done 'prior' based on other fluctuations that 'were' seen.
 
Sept 19, 2008 from Subscriber

Only 2 days ago, vendor crowing about his system reaching all-time highs, and yesterday more bragging about 221% annualized return. And that didn't even include the backtested periods, he said. This has to be one of the most shocking reversals of fortune in C2's history, about a highly regarded system's sudden descent into oblivion. There was something about this vendor's supremicist attitude that made me get out a few weeks ago, and glad that I did. In this morning's other review, vendor's rebuttal to the criticism is that government's action today is a one-time, unforseen, watershed event. Hmm . . . funny thing about the stock market - there seem to be lots of unforseen events! Let us look at this 60% drawdown of margined funds and learn a lesson from all this.

Rebuttal, posted on April 29, 2009 by system developer:

Update 4/29/09- gains since this review exceed 100% and brought the system equity back to the pre-sept.08 level , all done with sharply reduced margin.
update 9/25/08 the price mvp-3 received on the stop was busted per the ruling from the nasdaq. Though many subscribers had their shares re-deposited in their accts, I am more than satisfied with the trades now showing the lowest amount not busted by the Nasdaq. The rest is on me to continue seeking ways to make the program better.
 
Sept 19, 2008 from Subscriber

Amazing how to turn a 25% profit into a 40% loss in just one day by not securing profits with a stop one day before option expiration.

Rebuttal, posted on April 29, 2009 by system developer:

Update 4/29/09- since this review gains of over 100% have been posted here at C2, bringing equity back to the pre-sept.08 level , all done with sharply reduced margin.
9/25/08 the price mvp-3 received on the stop that was in place per system emails was busted per the ruling from the nasdaq. Though many subscribers had their shares re-deposited in their accts, I am more than satisfied with the trades now showing the lowest amount not busted by the Nasdaq. The rest is on me to continue seeking ways to make the program better.
 
Sept 6, 2008 from Subscriber

Outstanding performance! Ton of support by vendor. Thank you Steve for offering this excellent system. Ilyas

 
June 7, 2008 from Subscriber

Emails come daily to keep subscribers informed and any questions are answered promptly.

 
May 23, 2008 from Subscriber

I have known the vendor for some time now and know the amount of thought and effort that has gone into MVP over the years. I feel confident that MVP will continue to significantly outperform in the future. Sure there will be some losing trades but after having been trading MVP for six or seven months my two regrets are (a) that I did not subscribe earlier and (b) that (once bitten twice shy by other systems) I did not allocate more funds when I started trading it. Good job.



Statistics

Analytics  
System has been audited since11/20/2007 (34 months ago)
Trades64
# Profitable35 (54.7%)
# months tracked35
Profitable months18 (51.4%)
Avg trade duration13.3 days
Annual return (compounded)16.4%
Average win$1,611
Average loss$1,839
Profit factor1.1:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)69.48%
drawdown periodSept 17, 2008 to Oct 27, 2008
Correlation w/ S&P0.092
Sharpe ratio0.26
C2Realism Factor 74%
Keep after worst-case slippage 94.3%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss73.2%
Chance of 20% account loss78.6%
Chance of 30% account loss69.8%
Chance of 50% account loss0.2%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)-0.01
Average P/L per unit traded$0.47
Sum of dividends and cash expir. in model account$1,197


System Description

MVP-3 is an excel based visual basic program that uses only technical analysis indicators to create its main signals which are buys, rebuys, and shorts. Then it issues Piggyback trades within the major signals listed above. (and sells of each kind) The trade count here at C2 does not reflect the 2-3 piggyback trades which occur within each major signal. If you ***HOVER THE MOUSE OVER BTO*** on each trade in the list here at C2, you will get a dropdown list showing piggybacked trades. http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/mvpsignalsystem/ The major trends can last weeks to months but the piggyback trades generally last only several days. Average trade is 5 days. The program uses proshares 2X etfs and occasional margin. NOTE: all results since October 2008 have been achieved with sharply reduced margin usage as well as shorter holding periods. Extensive documentation available in the group files section.

- This System Description text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that this text above is an accurate system description.