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ETF Timer

What it trades: Stocks

Hypothetical Monthly Results

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2008(0.5%)+4.6%+6.0%+4.7%+17.2%+2.5%+0.3%+0.5%+15.5%+2.4%+8.0%+1.2%
2009+7.1%+1.0%+12.5%+15.7%+4.2%+2.2%(2.8%)+3.3%+6.1%(2.8%)+8.6%+4.6%
2010(2%)+3.7%+9.4%                                                      

 
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Show chart:  Standard  |  Monte Carlo  |  Personalized

Subscription Terms

Seven-day free trial, then $97 per month (Details)

There is a free trial period of 7 days before you are charged. You may cancel at any time before this (we send you an email at least a day before, to remind you, so there are no surprises.)

Then, after the trial, you will be charged $97 per month. (That is, we will charge you every 30 days - not when the month name on the calendar changes. So it's okay to sign up towards the end of a calendar month. You'll still get a full 30 days.)

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Strategy Description 


ETF Timer is a market-timing trading system for the Nasdaq 100 which uses QLD (ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF) and QID (ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF). See more complete description below.
read more...

- This overview was provided by the system developer. Collective2 has not verified it.




Recently Closed Trades

Details

System creator requested that closed trades data below be delayed by seven days.

Opened ET B/S # Symbol   Price Closed Price Risk P/L
7/17/09 12:06 BUY 4,950 QLD Proshares Ultra QQQ ETF 2x 47.33 1/15/10 15:20 53.51 Low $30,564
7/14/09 9:30 BUY 1,000 QID Proshares UltraShort QQQ ETF 2x 33.39 7/16 15:56 30.11 Normal ($3,276)
3/3/09 14:34 BUY 6,600 QLD Proshares Ultra QQQ ETF 2x 28.53 7/8 11:00 33.79 Normal $34,700
1/28/09 14:20 BUY 1,000 QID Proshares UltraShort QQQ ETF 2x 53.42 2/24 10:47 56.57 Normal $3,153
1/2/09 9:51 BUY 1,000 QID Proshares UltraShort QQQ ETF 2x 55.67 1/22 13:49 59.77 High $4,100
11/19/08 15:43 BUY 1,700 QLD Proshares Ultra QQQ ETF 2x 23.93 12/22 13:57 25.93 Low $3,398
10/30/08 14:29 BUY 400 QID Proshares UltraShort QQQ ETF 2x 63.76 11/13 13:38 74.82 Low $4,422
10/13/08 12:19 BUY 1,150 QID Proshares UltraShort QQQ ETF 2x 67.10 10/24 9:31 83.89 High $19,313
10/2/08 11:46 BUY 1,250 QLD Proshares Ultra QQQ ETF 2x 44.71 10/10 11:52 30.78 Extreme ($17,408)
8/14/08 13:40 BUY 2,100 QID Proshares UltraShort QQQ ETF 2x 40.87 9/29 13:06 48.13 Low $15,255
6/25/08 15:20 BUY 3,150 QID Proshares UltraShort QQQ ETF 2x 42.30 8/11 11:08 42.92 Low $1,972
4/11/08 15:09 BUY 3,250 QLD Proshares Ultra QQQ ETF 2x 80.29 6/24 10:18 83.82 Normal $11,476
3/25/08 9:56 BUY 1,000 QID Proshares UltraShort QQQ ETF 2x 48.35 4/11 11:46 47.00 High ($1,350)
3/18/08 14:16 BUY 500 QLD Proshares Ultra QQQ ETF 2x 65.93 3/20 12:11 66.00 Low $34
3/14/08 14:43 BUY 400 QLD Proshares Ultra QQQ ETF 2x 64.59 3/18 13:25 66.55 Normal $786

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Reviews

See All
 
Feb 26, 2010 from Subscriber

The last review on this system is completely baseless. Ive been a subscriber for quite a while and the system manager is not taking on any more risk than in the past. BTW, the system is only 65 percent invested not 85 as the reviewer claims.

 
Feb 25, 2010 from Subscriber

Time to move on.. I recommend this system during a trending market, however that is not the current condition. In order to capture his past performance the manager is taking on greater risk. 85 percent of a portfolio in qld which is a double leveraged etf is similar to hold 170 percent of qqqq. If you have access to the trade history, take a look how we made money verses what he has done the past 3-4 month. It has been a difficult decision to exit, but I will sit on sidelines until the market starts trending again.

 
Jan 29, 2010 from Subscriber

This system has an admirable equity curve and two years of good results to back it up. Any negative comments I've seen in chat and forums usually come from other vendors whose own work has significantly lower profits,if any.

 
Jan 16, 2010 from Subscriber

This system is perfect for my IRA account. If you think buy and hold is dead then this system is the answer. Makes money equally in up or down markets. Also, just the right number of trades and he has been spot on with his calls.

 
Jan 14, 2010 from AutoTrader

Developer very responsive with updates and replies to questions. No use of margin, which I prefer. Fairly steady rate of positive returns with little risk of drawdowns of 14% or more. Subscription rate and commissions are relatively low, helping the overall net rate of return.

 
Dec 7, 2009 from Subscriber

Well managed system, easy to trade, friendly vendor, an equity curve that is about as good as one could realistically expect. Am I missing something? Yes - I was on the sidelines for a bit too long. IMHO you will struggle to fnd a better system on C2.

 
Dec 7, 2009 from Subscriber

I'm very happy with ETF Timer. Unlike so many other vendors here who talk a good game (way too much talking) while their systems are junk, this vendor remains quiet and lets his systems' performance do his talking for him. A stellar year in 2008 and a fine year in 2009. Well done!

 
Sept 21, 2009 from Subscriber

This system is consistently excellent. It makes money almost every month. It recovers nicely from small losses. It is exactly what I dreamed of.

 
Aug 12, 2009 from AutoTrader

System vendor is professional and communicates regularly with his subscribers. The system's low-stress, patient methodology of trading combined with its superior track record and low cost elevates ETF Trader to the top tier of systems on C2. Highly recommended.

 
July 29, 2009 from Subscriber

ETF timer is a well managed, outstanding system with an excellent track record. You are provided with daily updates and your questions are answered within minutes!

 
July 8, 2009 from Subscriber

Well managed. 17 winning months in a row. Always communicate with subscribers.



Statistics

Analytics  
System has been audited since1/31/2008 (26 months ago)
Trades17
# Profitable14 (82.4%)
# months tracked26
Profitable months23 (88.5%)
Avg trade duration14.0 days
Annual return (compounded)77.6%
Average win$9,848
Average loss$7,344
Profit factor6.3:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)26.87%
drawdown periodSept 18, 2008 to Oct 13, 2008
Correlation w/ S&P0.047
Sharpe ratio2.319
C2Realism Factor 100%
Keep after worst-case slippage 99.3%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss19.5%
Chance of 20% account loss2.4%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)1.89
Average P/L per unit traded$2.94
Sum of dividends and cash expir. in model account$61


System Description

PLEASE NOTE: EFFECTIVE JANUARY 1, 2010, ETF TIMER WILL NO LONGER HAVE INTRADAY TRADE ALERTS. ALL ALERTS WILL EITHER BE ISSUED ON MARKET OPEN OR NEAR MARKET CLOSE. THIS CHANGE WILL GREATLY FACILITATE THE MANUAL TRADING OF ETF TIMER.

ETF Timer is a market-timing trading system in which I utilize my proprietary technical indicators for price and volume. For this system, I only trade QLD and QID. I generally keep a core position in one of these ETFs depending on the market trend, then trade around incremental positions to take advantage of market moves within the overall trend.

Please note that unlike most of the trading systems on Collective2, I don't use any margin in ETF Timer. That way all of my subscribers are able to replicate my results in their own trading account, whether it's a cash or margin account. In fact, I trade ETF Timer in my own cash account held at an online discount broker.

So the over 218% return obtained from ETF Timer's inception on January 31, 2008 through December 31, 2009 was accomplished without the volatility one would expect had I utilized margin. Also, this 218% gain was realized in a bear market when the S & P 500 lost over 19% during the same period.

DISCLAIMER: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

- This system description was provided by the system developer. Collective2 has not verified it.