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Rainier



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Hypothetical Monthly Returns (using typical broker commissions)

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2009              +6.3%+3.6%+1.5%+1.7%+6.7%+0.9%+3.4%+5.9%+3.5%+0.6%
2010(3.5%)+6.1%+1.6%+2.7%+18.6%(1.5%)+2.7%(0.3%)(0.7%)+2.1%+2.4%  -  
2011+0.7%(0.7%)+7.5%+2.2%(3.1%)+1.9%+0.3%(16.1%)(8.6%)+5.6%+2.9%+1.6%
2012+0.2%  -                                                              


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Technical Analysis:  Moving Average daysX

Instruments Stocks
Strategies Technical analysis, Market timing
System started 3/14/2009 (35 months ago)
System developer Cliff Fiess
(Last login to C2: 2/3/12 20:18)
C2 Score: 997

Vendor has created 2 other systems. Show
The name of this system has been changed 3 times. Show



Recently Closed Trades

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Hypothetical Trading Results
Opened ETB/S#Symbol PriceClosedPriceRiskP/L
1/26/12 14:38 BUY 1,820 GLW CORNING INC 12.66 1/27
15:27
12.69 Low $19
1/26/12 10:41 BUY 1,966 SCHW CHARLES SCHWAB CORP THE 11.72 1/27
9:40
11.63 Low ($216)
1/24/12 9:34 BUY 1,544 RIMM RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD 14.84 1/25
9:30
15.16 Low $463
1/20/12 9:30 BUY 1,740 FITB FIFTH THIRD BANCORP 13.17 1/23
9:30
13.21 Low $35
12/28/11 11:29 BUY 864 SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST 26.53 12/29
12:59
26.32 Low ($198)
12/14/11 9:30 BUY 2,047 SCHW CHARLES SCHWAB CORP THE 11.00 12/15
9:30
11.12 Low $205
12/14/11 9:30 BUY 787 SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST 28.35 12/15
9:30
28.41 Low $31
12/14/11 9:52 BUY 1,512 YHOO YAHOO! INC 14.92 12/15
9:30
15.18 Low $363
12/14/11 10:17 BUY 1,667 NVDA NVIDIA CORP 13.53 12/15
9:30
13.84 Low $484
12/14/11 10:53 BUY 434 GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD ETF 51.98 12/15
9:30
53.01 Low $438
12/14/11 11:42 BUY 2,476 MGM MGM MIRAGE INC 9.11 12/15
9:30
9.42 n/a $718
12/14/11 14:58 BUY 343 XLE SPDR ENERGY SECTOR ETF 65.72 12/15
9:30
66.92 Low $405
12/14/11 15:08 BUY 2,229 F FORD MOTOR CO 10.12 12/15
9:30
10.31 Low $379
12/9/11 9:30 BUY 781 TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC 28.50 12/13
9:30
29.35 Low $648
12/8/11 14:54 BUY 1,025 VALE COMPANHIA VALE RIO DOCE 22.02 12/9
9:30
22.21 Low $175

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Statistics

Analytics  
All Statistics Based on Hypothetical Results
Trades836
# Profitable534 (63.9%)
# months tracked36
Profitable months26 (72.2%)
Avg trade duration1.7 days
Annual return (compounded)25.2%
Average win$498
Average loss$581
Profit factor1.5:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)29.61%
drawdown periodAug 19, 2011 to Oct 04, 2011
Correlation w/ S&P0.253
Sharpe ratio1.352
Keep after worst-case slippage 99.3%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)0.16
Average P/L per unit traded$0.18
Sum of dividends and cash expir. in model account$1,379


Reviews


 
Feb 8, 2010 from AutoTrader

There are several excellent long only stock system on C2 which are based on quantitative statistical analysis, in fact, most of them have a higher return since March 09 when this incredible bull market started. I got attracted to this one because of the low drawdown and my hunch that it will also perform well in a bear market. So far during this correction I have not been disappointed.

 
Dec 9, 2009 from Subscriber

Rainier todate has shown a great deal of dicipline in execution. Entry and exit points are well defined and easily traded.

System Description

What to Expect
Rainier trades extremely liquid instruments with an average daily volume of more than 10 million shares and an average daily money flow of more than 100 million dollars. The system will generate orders every evening after the market closes. There will be far more orders generated when the market is weak than when it is strong. Only a fraction of the orders will be filled.

Position Management
When a position is opened, you will receive a sell at limit order or profit target for the next day. The vast majority of trades will last 1 or 2 days. If the position is still open on the third day, it will be closed with a market order. Rainier does not "average down" or add to losing positions.

I strongly recommend that you don't allocate over 12% of your account to a single position. Doing so can increase risk to an unacceptable level. Rainier was designed to use a maximum of 12% position sizing, but you can use less if you want. Smaller position sizes will reduce both profits and drawdowns, but this would be appropriate for many risk-averse individuals. At any rate open 16 positions and then stop buying.

You can size your positions as a percentage of Rainier's position size. The formula is X% = YA / (RE * 2) * 100. YA is Your Account (the amount you're allocating to Rainier), RE is Rainier's Equity (you multiply it by two because it uses 2:1 margin). For example if you allocate $50,000 to trading the system and Rainier's equity is $180,000 the formula would be X% = 50,000 / (180,000 * 2) * 100 = 13.9%.

Margin
The use of margin increases both profits and drawdowns. Market exposure can vary from 0% to about 192%. Historically, with 12% position sizing, the average market exposure has been under 25%. If you don't want to use margin, just use 6% for position sizing.

Manual Trading
To trade Rainier manually it is necessary to enter all orders with your broker before the markets open in New York. However, most brokers won't let you enter orders in excess of your buying power. In this situation it's best to enter conditional orders. Add the condition to submit the order when the stock's price is less than or equal to the Buy at Limit price. I believe many brokers have this capability. Note that when the market is weak Rainier will generate a lot of orders. I'm trying to figure out a way to make this easier.

To prevent having more than 16 open orders, it may be necessary to manually cancel any pending BTO orders when 16 positions have been opened. Do not cancel any STC orders.

Autotrading
I have received some feedback indicating Rainier does not lend itself to Generation 3 autotrading. The main problem seems to be that Rainier opens too many positions when market conditions are chaotic. Rainier will try to close all pending BTO orders when it approaches 16 open positions, but this cannot be guaranteed. When the market is moving rapidly downward more than 16 positions may be opened. In this case I will have to manually close some positions. In time I should be able to resolve this problem.

The good news is that Generation 1 autotrading using TradeBullet and Interactive Brokers seems to work well.

Backtesting and Commentary
You can find backtesting information and some commentary on my website. http://www.cfphoto.com/trading01.html

- This System Description text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that this text above is an accurate system description. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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$75 per month, only if profitableDetails

This is a pay-for-performance system. Subscriptions cost $75 at the end of each month, but only if the system has made profitable recommendations for the period.

To determine profitability, we do not look at your brokerage account, nor do we take into consideration whether you actually placed the trades recommended here. We simply measure the system's hypothetical track record here on the Collective2 Web site, without factoring fees or commissions. You will not be charged unless the sum of the trades during the period was profitable. (Also, we want to reassure you that a "month" means a full 30-day period. That is, you are billed only if the last 30 days' worth of trade recommendations were profitable. So it's safe to subscribe at the end of a calendar month; you'll still get 30 days' worth of trades.)



 

Overview

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AutoTraded
This strategy is being traded in live (not demo) brokerage accounts linked to this site.
Learn more about AutoTrading
Rainier is a mechanical system that buys highly liquid undervalued stocks and usually sells them one to two days later.
read more...

- This text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified the Overview text above. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Model Account Status

Started$100,000
Buy Power$191,981
Cash$191,981
Equity$0
Cumulative $*$91,981
Total System Equity$191,981
Margined$0
Open P/L$0


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