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20 power stocks

Stocks · Started Jul 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.2%
Max Drawdown
86.4%
Trades
536
Win Trades
50.6%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
48.8%

About this strategy

This is a computer drive strategy using a number of fundamental and technical inputs, analysed in a ranking system, with the top ranked stocks forming the investment.

Stocks are screened for basic liqudity, this involves:

-Market capitalisation greater than $50 million
-Average daily turnover greater than $200k
-No penny stocks
-No OTC issues.

Quite suitable for accounts of $10k, can be scaled up but unstand slippage may become more of an issue as this system has a strong microcap bias, though this is negated by a somewhat low turnover.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20092.8-0.37.3-7.75.512.220.1
2010-3.72.813.511.0-9.6-11.04.1-15.817.09.0-5.77.714.0
2011-1.7-2.4-11.0-9.5-6.6-4.8-4.6-24.1-46.079.2-14.94.3-57.3
201212.411.610.7-2.2-8.010.9-29.0-0.124.2-3.913.4-10.219.3
201333.3-12.439.2-12.9-10.525.520.8-12.524.95.60.0-2.5115.9
20143.1-23.8-0.6-23.64.9-17.9-9.023.7-19.621.3-26.024.6-47.9
2015-20.510.53.3-8.2-11.23.2-14.8-10.9-6.529.77.0-9.8-32.2
2016-36.210.021.725.9-6.1-7.827.516.510.4-18.839.37.385.1
2017-14.2-14.9-6.7-6.5-7.4208.6-1.20.010.52.0-1.0-8.284.1
2018-1.1-1.1-6.1-1.9-0.31.717.23.0-1.2-9.7-4.43.1-3.1
20197.64.0-9.72.0-1.10.0-0.06.0-10.4-1.36.4-2.8
2020-3.1-2.4-22.8-15.46.95.66.14.1-1.50.312.94.7-10.1
20214.43.93.22.63.110.30.8-1.3-2.62.8-2.5-0.526.0
2022-2.7-2.0-1.3-3.3-2.9-1.21.2-74.3256.85.74.9-2.2-12.3
20235.4-2.16.4-0.90.34.51.90.5-2.7-2.66.86.125.3
2024-0.60.5-0.11.00.8-1.64.2-0.40.91.33.0-2.36.8
2025-0.1-1.1-5.5-2.0-0.33.9-2.01.20.00.10.22.2-3.6
20260.42.8-2.33.00.7-0.14.72.6-3.82.110.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/29/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age209 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades536
# Profitable271
% Profitable50.6%
Avg trade duration92.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown86.4%
drawdown periodMarch 08, 2014 - Feb 12, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)5.2%
Avg win$155
Avg loss$100

Ratios

W:L ratio1.82
Sharpe Ratio0.34
Sortino Ratio0.98
Calmar Ratio0.25

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life695.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-557.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity5.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)13.3%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$100
Avg Win$155
# Winners271
Sum Trade PL (losers)$26,518
Sum Trade PL (winners)$41,946
Num Months Winners103
# Losers265
% Winners50.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct6263

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table208

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)345950.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)5765.85
Avg Trade Length240.20
Last Trade Ago1832

Regression

Alpha0.13
Beta0.64
Treynor Index0.24

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.85
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats74.04
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats79.91
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.59
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.31

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.45
df63
t1.05
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.30
Sortino ratio0.97
Upside Potential Ratio2.85
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.48
Upside SD0.47
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms31
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance0.07
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.25
DF error62
t(b)3.15
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.05
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.13
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df63
t0.62
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio0.45
Upside Potential Ratio2.29
Upside part of mean0.64
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms31
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance0.06
r0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error62
t(b)3.98
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.60
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean0.55
SD0.99
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.55
df1411
t1.29
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.40
Sortino ratio1.09
Upside Potential Ratio6.49
Upside part of mean3.27
Downside part of mean-2.72
Upside SD0.85
Downside SD0.50
N nonnegative terms762
N negative terms650
N of observations1412
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.55
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.99
Covariance0.05
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.96
DF error1410
t(b)6.04
p(b)0.42
t(a)0.81
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.17
Treynor index (mean / b)1.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
Mean0.14
SD0.89
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df1411
t0.36
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio4.90
Upside part of mean3.02
Downside part of mean-2.88
Upside SD0.64
Downside SD0.62
N nonnegative terms762
N negative terms650
N of observations1412
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.89
Covariance0.05
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.76
DF error1410
t(b)7.74
p(b)0.40
t(a)-0.19
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean2.63
SD1.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.77
df130
t1.26
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.55
Sortino ratio9.68
Upside Potential Ratio14.82
Upside part of mean4.03
Downside part of mean-1.40
Upside SD1.45
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms56
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.41
Mean of criterion2.63
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion1.47
Covariance0.08
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.98
Mean Square Error2.15
DF error129
t(b)1.50
p(b)0.42
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.17
Treynor index (mean / b)5.68
Jensen alpha (a)1.98
Mean1.92
SD1.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.79
df130
t1.27
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.57
Sortino ratio6.62
Upside Potential Ratio11.57
Upside part of mean3.36
Downside part of mean-1.44
Upside SD1.03
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms56
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.32
Mean of criterion1.92
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion1.07
Covariance0.07
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.39
Mean Square Error1.12
DF error129
t(b)1.81
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.91
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.41
Treynor index (mean / b)4.78
Jensen alpha (a)1.39
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations64
Minimum0.71
Quartile 10.94
Median1.00
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.91
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.71
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.91
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations1412
Minimum0.47
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum2.13
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low75
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high64
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum2.00
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.07
Median0.19
Quartile 30.32
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30.27
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.25
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations38
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.59
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.44
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.34
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.36
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.64
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-395694944
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)706
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.32
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.39
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)5.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)36.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs73.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal48.37

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LDL long90Jun 6, 2011Sep 30, 2021$4,657
WSTL long354Jul 25, 2011Aug 12, 2011($188)
COOL long7Apr 11, 2011Aug 12, 2011($365)
JOUT long50Jul 25, 2011Aug 12, 2011($263)
NVMI long95Apr 18, 2011Aug 12, 2011($244)
PCCC long114Jun 6, 2011Aug 1, 2011($66)
BUSE long61May 2, 2011Aug 1, 2011($23)
EEI long46Jun 6, 2011Jul 25, 2011($139)
BKYF long47Jul 11, 2011Jul 25, 2011($9)
BZC long108Jul 11, 2011Jul 25, 2011($34)
DEST long44Apr 11, 2011Jul 11, 2011($169)
RCKY long68Apr 11, 2011Jul 11, 2011($170)
INTX long83Apr 11, 2011Jul 11, 2011$738
DTLK long138Apr 25, 2011Jul 11, 2011($35)
GENE long33May 2, 2011Jul 11, 2011$167
SLI long42Jun 6, 2011Jul 11, 2011$48
STRL long64Apr 11, 2011Jun 6, 2011($226)
HCKT long259Apr 25, 2011Jun 6, 2011$207
MALL long105Apr 11, 2011Jun 6, 2011($164)
DRCO long63Apr 11, 2011Jun 6, 2011($84)
GKNT long37Apr 11, 2011Jun 6, 2011$88
MCZ long474Apr 11, 2011Jun 6, 2011($227)
MNDO long301Apr 11, 2011Jun 6, 2011($163)
GPX long75Apr 11, 2011Jun 6, 2011($100)
LMLP long378Apr 11, 2011May 2, 2011($174)
SUPG long376Apr 18, 2011May 2, 2011$22
SCLN long227Apr 11, 2011Apr 25, 2011$4
EEI long51Apr 11, 2011Apr 25, 2011($47)
FFHL long248Apr 11, 2011Apr 18, 2011($496)
SOL long104Jan 24, 2011Apr 11, 2011($124)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.