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ETF Married Puts

Stocks · Started May 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
18
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
0.30
Win Months
7.6%

About this strategy

Using Married Puts with ETFs, I created a system with low risk on the downside, without limiting the upside possibilities. The downside risk is known at the trade set-up usually around 10% Max Drawdown, no matter if the etf goes to zero and still the upside possibliblities are unlimited. I will also show at least 5 different ways to add income with these trades to where it is posible to bring the downside risk to zero and create nice profit streams. With this system you never have to worry about the high volitilities in todays markets, matter of fact the more volatile the better. This is not a get rich quick system it a very conservative system that limits risk.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20100.3-4.0-2.9-5.2-5.35.44.6-41.3-45.6
2011-11.0-28.9-23.7-34.654.642.119.969.323.3-22.732.0-15.050.6
2012-15.8-3.6-11.17.823.6-10.910.0-14.8-8.411.0-2.6-8.2-26.9
2013-30.3-7.6-21.48.0-60.612.1-140.1-141.1-588.80.00.00.0-119.5
2014-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/24/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age200 months
What it tradesStocks, Options
# Trades18
# Profitable9
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration161.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodSept 07, 2013 - Sept 18, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$4,030
Avg loss$16,029

Ratios

W:L ratio0.25
Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Sortino Ratio-0.49
Calmar Ratio-0.91

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.29
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life616.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-738.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.2%
Percent Trades Stocks0.8%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$16,029
Avg Win$4,030
# Winners9
Sum Trade PL (losers)$144,261
Sum Trade PL (winners)$36,274
Num Months Winners15
# Losers9
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct74

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table39

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)232074.27
Avg Position Time (hrs)3867.90
Avg Trade Length161.20
Last Trade Ago4773

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-2.90
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.35
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat4.89
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.59
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.07
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.40
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.49
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.09
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.29

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.27
SD1.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.26
df55
t-0.56
p0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.65
Sortino ratio-0.42
Upside Potential Ratio0.85
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.80
Downside SD0.65
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms15
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion-0.27
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion1.04
Covariance-0.08
r-0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.98
DF error54
t(b)-2.62
p(b)0.99
t(a)0.77
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.46
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
Mean-2.44
SD4.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.54
df55
t-1.18
p0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Sortino ratio-0.55
Upside Potential Ratio0.09
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-2.83
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD4.48
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms15
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-2.44
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion4.49
Covariance-0.09
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.93
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.68
Mean Square Error20.36
DF error54
t(b)-0.67
p(b)0.75
t(a)-0.70
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-7.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.10
Treynor index (mean / b)1.27
Jensen alpha (a)-1.68
VaR(95%)0.90
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.94
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
Mean779.67
SD1693.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df1235
t1.00
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio853.39
Upside Potential Ratio857.07
Upside part of mean783.03
Downside part of mean-3.36
Upside SD1693.84
Downside SD0.91
N nonnegative terms986
N negative terms250
N of observations1236
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion779.67
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion1693.84
Covariance-14.63
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-133.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)841.44
Mean Square Error2869449.25
DF error1234
t(b)-0.92
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-419.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta152.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-694.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2377.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.84
Jensen alpha (a)841.44
Mean-2.42
SD7.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.34
df1235
t-0.74
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.56
Sortino ratio-0.40
Upside Potential Ratio0.77
Upside part of mean4.64
Downside part of mean-7.05
Upside SD3.85
Downside SD6.01
N nonnegative terms986
N negative terms250
N of observations1236
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion-2.42
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion7.13
Covariance-0.28
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.45
Mean Square Error50.28
DF error1234
t(b)-4.04
p(b)0.56
t(a)-0.44
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.97
Treynor index (mean / b)1.01
Jensen alpha (a)-1.45
VaR(95%)0.52
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.60
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations56
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.67
Mean of quarter 10.72
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.23
Mean of outliers low0.71
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.52
Number of observations1236
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum3680
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 412.95
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low250
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high235
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high16.72
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.76
Quartile 10.82
Median0.88
Quartile 30.94
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.76
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.41
Median0.79
Quartile 30.89
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.79
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.49
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-372066080
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)11
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.91
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.91
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.91
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.97
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.91
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.91
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.91
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.53
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TNA short6800Dec 19, 2010Sep 19, 2013($111,103)
TZA1221M20 short32Nov 4, 2010Dec 20, 2010($7,885)
TNA1018L59 short34Nov 4, 2010Dec 19, 2010$19,356
SDS1018X41 long5May 25, 2010Oct 28, 2010$593
SSO1018X41 long5May 26, 2010Oct 28, 2010($3,747)
SSO long2000May 24, 2010Oct 28, 2010$2,742
SDS long250May 24, 2010Oct 28, 2010($3,389)
QLD long2400May 24, 2010Oct 28, 2010$4,432
QID1016V22 long9May 25, 2010Oct 17, 2010($4,776)
TWM long38May 24, 2010Oct 17, 2010$2,121
QID long120May 24, 2010Oct 17, 2010$3,922
QLD1016V67 long3May 26, 2010Oct 17, 2010($4,772)
TWM1016V25 long6May 25, 2010Oct 17, 2010($4,144)
UWM long600May 24, 2010Oct 17, 2010$2,438
UWM1016V36 long4May 24, 2010Oct 17, 2010($4,003)
UGL long400May 24, 2010May 27, 2010$548
GLL long125May 24, 2010May 27, 2010($573)
GLL1019R49 long5May 25, 2010May 27, 2010$43

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.