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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

(52547431)
(52547431)

Created by: Username Username
Started: 09/2010
Stocks
Last trade: 3,681 days ago
Subscriptions not currently available.

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. You can subscribe to this system for free.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

3.4%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(14.3%)
Max Drawdown
19
Num Trades
52.6%
Win Trades
9.5 : 1
Profit Factor
66.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010                                                        +0.4%+2.8%(1.4%)+4.9%+6.8%
2011+1.9%+3.2%+0.2%+3.9%(1.8%)(2.6%)+0.9%(2%)(2.8%)(1.2%)+0.4%+0.4%+0.3%
2012+0.2%+0.5%+0.1%+0.4%(6%)+1.1%+1.0%+0.5%(0.1%)(1.7%)+1.4%+1.4%(1.5%)
2013+3.2%(0.6%)+1.3%+2.7%(2%)(2.3%)+2.2%(3%)+1.4%+1.2%+0.8%+1.0%+5.9%
2014(2%)+2.5%+0.3%+1.2%+1.6%+1.7%(2%)+2.4%(5.1%)+3.3%(0.2%)(0.5%)+2.8%
2015(0.3%)+1.9%(0.5%)+1.7%(1.7%)(2.9%)+0.6%(6.8%)+2.5%+3.5%(0.7%)(1%)(4%)
2016(4.4%)+1.7%+4.7%+1.0%+0.8%+2.7%+2.3%(0.9%)+0.2%(2.7%)+0.5%+2.1%+8.0%
2017+0.9%+2.9%(0.7%)+1.0%+0.9%+0.3%+1.3%+0.5%+0.6%+1.4%+2.0%+1.0%+12.7%
2018+1.4%(3.1%)(0.3%)+0.9%+1.4%(0.3%)+2.3%+1.4%(0.3%)(6.1%)+0.2%(5.1%)(7.7%)
2019+8.6%+1.8%+0.8%+2.7%+0.2%  -  (0.5%)+2.2%+1.6%+1.3%+2.0%+23.2%
2020+0.3%(5.9%)(11.8%)+4.9%+5.4%+1.4%+4.3%+4.0%(2.5%)+0.6%+6.8%+2.5%+8.6%
2021+1.8%+1.4%+1.9%+4.5%+0.8%+2.2%+1.5%+1.1%(1.7%)+3.7%(3.2%)+5.0%+20.3%
2022(3.2%)(2.9%)+3.9%(3.9%)(0.3%)(5.4%)+2.7%(0.8%)(10.3%)+4.0%+3.3%(1.9%)(14.8%)
2023+5.7%(3.2%)(1.6%)+2.6%+0.1%+2.4%+4.0%(1.4%)(3.2%)(3.9%)+6.9%+4.8%+13.2%
2024(0.4%)+2.0%+2.1%                                                      +3.8%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Show More details Show Fewer details
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
8/1/13 9:30 VEU VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD EX-US LONG 481 46.82 9/3 9:37 46.23 0.67%
Trade id #82308962
Max drawdown($726)
Time8/30/13 15:55
Quant open481
Worst price45.31
Drawdown as % of equity-0.67%
($294)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.62
2/1/12 9:30 VNQ VANGUARD REAL ESTATE ETF LONG 357 62.21 9/3/13 9:37 64.75 0.01%
Trade id #70164368
Max drawdown($7)
Time3/22/12 11:07
Quant open357
Worst price62.19
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
$900
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.14
9/10/12 9:30 VEU VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD EX-US LONG 486 43.51 7/1/13 9:31 44.63 0.45%
Trade id #76505328
Max drawdown($481)
Time6/24/13 11:30
Quant open486
Worst price42.52
Drawdown as % of equity-0.45%
$534
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.72
5/1/13 9:30 IEF ISHARES BARCLAYS 7-10 YEAR TRE LONG 208 108.92 6/3 9:32 104.98 0.76%
Trade id #80622976
Max drawdown($850)
Time5/31/13 14:37
Quant open208
Worst price104.83
Drawdown as % of equity-0.76%
($824)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.16
9/10/12 9:30 DBC INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX LONG 732 29.00 3/1/13 9:30 26.88 1.42%
Trade id #76505513
Max drawdown($1,552)
Time3/1/13 9:30
Quant open0
Worst price26.88
Drawdown as % of equity-1.42%
($1,557)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
6/1/11 9:30 IEF ISHARES BARCLAYS 7-10 YEAR TRE LONG 238 96.70 1/3/13 9:31 107.03 0.31%
Trade id #61946126
Max drawdown($345)
Time7/1/11 10:30
Quant open238
Worst price95.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.31%
$2,454
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.76
3/1/12 11:26 DBC INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX LONG 736 29.36 6/1 15:42 24.72 3.46%
Trade id #71085315
Max drawdown($3,510)
Time6/1/12 14:15
Quant open736
Worst price24.59
Drawdown as % of equity-3.46%
($3,420)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
3/1/12 11:25 VEU VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD EX-US LONG 484 44.89 6/1 15:42 37.64 3.47%
Trade id #71085302
Max drawdown($3,513)
Time6/1/12 14:15
Quant open484
Worst price37.63
Drawdown as % of equity-3.47%
($3,519)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.68
2/1/12 9:30 VTI VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ET LONG 326 68.13 6/1 15:41 65.58 0.82%
Trade id #70164325
Max drawdown($831)
Time6/1/12 15:41
Quant open0
Worst price65.58
Drawdown as % of equity-0.82%
($838)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.52
10/1/10 9:32 DBC INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX LONG 830 24.28 10/3/11 9:30 25.31 0.01%
Trade id #53444890
Max drawdown($8)
Time10/7/10 12:36
Quant open830
Worst price24.27
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
$850
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/1/10 14:42 VNQ VANGUARD REAL ESTATE ETF LONG 398 51.66 9/1/11 9:30 57.50 0.02%
Trade id #52547503
Max drawdown($15)
Time11/16/10 14:41
Quant open398
Worst price51.62
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
$2,316
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.96
10/1/10 9:32 VTI VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ET LONG 343 58.85 9/1/11 9:30 62.81 0.43%
Trade id #53444867
Max drawdown($463)
Time8/22/11 11:56
Quant open343
Worst price57.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.43%
$1,351
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.86
10/1/10 9:32 VEU VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD EX-US LONG 441 45.88 8/2/11 9:30 47.71 0.41%
Trade id #53444866
Max drawdown($441)
Time3/16/11 14:21
Quant open441
Worst price44.88
Drawdown as % of equity-0.41%
$798
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.82
9/1/10 14:41 IEF ISHARES BARCLAYS 7-10 YEAR TRE LONG 201 98.27 1/3/11 9:32 93.19 1.2%
Trade id #52547475
Max drawdown($1,248)
Time12/16/10 11:33
Quant open201
Worst price92.06
Drawdown as % of equity-1.20%
($1,025)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.02

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    9/1/2010
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $100,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    4950.99
  • Age
    165 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    19
  • # Profitable
    10
  • % Profitable
    52.60%
  • Avg trade duration
    1192.8 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    14.29%
  • drawdown period
    April 29, 2011 - June 04, 2012
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    3.4%
  • Avg win
    $7,984
  • Avg loss
    $1,788
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $78,908
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $144,833
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    9.54:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.3
  • Sortino Ratio
    0.4
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.56
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -57.98%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.77690
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    386.13%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    3.4%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    0.60%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.16%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.034%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    5.3%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    13.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $1,786
  • Avg Win
    $8,068
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $16,070.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    163
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $80,676.000
  • # Winners
    10
  • Num Months Winners
    107
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    36325
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    9
  • % Winners
    52.6%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    1715990.00
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    28599.90
  • Avg Trade Length
    1191.7 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    3675
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.00
  • Beta
    0.48
  • Treynor Index
    0.02
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.02
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    8.21
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    11.48
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.56
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.01
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.03
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    0.643
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.10
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.162
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.782
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    2.653
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.03039
  • SD
    0.08779
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.34618
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.33948
  • df
    39.00000
  • t
    0.63204
  • p
    0.26552
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.73224
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.42024
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.73668
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.41563
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.48203
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.00838
  • Upside part of mean
    0.12663
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.09624
  • Upside SD
    0.06014
  • Downside SD
    0.06305
  • N nonnegative terms
    24.00000
  • N negative terms
    16.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    40.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.16303
  • Mean of criterion
    0.03039
  • SD of predictor
    0.15783
  • SD of criterion
    0.08779
  • Covariance
    0.00938
  • r
    0.67724
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.37671
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.03102
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00428
  • DF error
    38.00000
  • t(b)
    5.67407
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    -0.82857
  • p(a)
    0.79374
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.24231
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.51111
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10682
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.04477
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.08068
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.03102
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.02654
  • SD
    0.08842
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.30021
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.29440
  • df
    39.00000
  • t
    0.54811
  • p
    0.29337
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.77723
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.37389
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.78111
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.36990
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.40982
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.92621
  • Upside part of mean
    0.12476
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.09822
  • Upside SD
    0.05904
  • Downside SD
    0.06477
  • N nonnegative terms
    24.00000
  • N negative terms
    16.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    40.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14924
  • Mean of criterion
    0.02654
  • SD of predictor
    0.16316
  • SD of criterion
    0.08842
  • Covariance
    0.00996
  • r
    0.69058
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.37424
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.02931
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00420
  • DF error
    38.00000
  • t(b)
    5.88583
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    -0.79784
  • p(a)
    0.78504
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.24552
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.50296
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10367
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.04505
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.07093
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.02931
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03899
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04914
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01576
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03341
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    40.00000
  • Minimum
    0.92487
  • Quartile 1
    0.99474
  • Median
    1.00371
  • Quartile 3
    1.01866
  • Maximum
    1.05386
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97018
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00014
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.01174
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03140
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02392
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.93762
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.81404
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02202
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02482
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.50989
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02786
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03353
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00082
  • Quartile 1
    0.00734
  • Median
    0.01386
  • Quartile 3
    0.07016
  • Maximum
    0.12646
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00082
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01386
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.12646
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06282
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.03881
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.03717
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.29393
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.29393
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.75633
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.02732
  • SD
    0.06904
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.39568
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.39543
  • df
    1166.00000
  • t
    0.72879
  • p
    0.48933
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.66862
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.45987
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.66882
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.45967
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.53465
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.36084
  • Upside part of mean
    0.42720
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.39988
  • Upside SD
    0.04641
  • Downside SD
    0.05110
  • N nonnegative terms
    569.00000
  • N negative terms
    598.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1167.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.16067
  • Mean of criterion
    0.02732
  • SD of predictor
    0.16333
  • SD of criterion
    0.06904
  • Covariance
    0.00580
  • r
    0.51413
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.21733
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.05300
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00351
  • DF error
    1165.00000
  • t(b)
    20.45920
  • p(b)
    0.18775
  • t(a)
    -0.23593
  • p(a)
    0.50440
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.19648
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.23817
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.07079
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05560
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.12570
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.00760
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.02493
  • SD
    0.06913
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.36067
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.36043
  • df
    1166.00000
  • t
    0.66429
  • p
    0.49028
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.70362
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.42483
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.70379
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.42466
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.48546
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.29730
  • Upside part of mean
    0.42611
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.40118
  • Upside SD
    0.04625
  • Downside SD
    0.05136
  • N nonnegative terms
    569.00000
  • N negative terms
    598.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1167.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14727
  • Mean of criterion
    0.02493
  • SD of predictor
    0.16368
  • SD of criterion
    0.06913
  • Covariance
    0.00583
  • r
    0.51536
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.21765
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.00712
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00351
  • DF error
    1165.00000
  • t(b)
    20.52630
  • p(b)
    0.18707
  • t(a)
    -0.22103
  • p(a)
    0.50412
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.19684
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.23845
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.07032
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05608
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.11455
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.00712
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00604
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00759
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00269
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00558
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    1167.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97757
  • Quartile 1
    0.99882
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00162
  • Maximum
    1.01390
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99570
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99971
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00074
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00429
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00280
  • Number outliers low
    77.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.06598
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99116
  • Number of outliers high
    62.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05313
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00824
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.32141
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00380
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00687
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.18987
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00377
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00608
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    20.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00066
  • Quartile 1
    0.00215
  • Median
    0.00611
  • Quartile 3
    0.01113
  • Maximum
    0.14186
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00144
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00417
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00874
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.05198
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00899
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.15000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.07825
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.68394
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04874
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.17716
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    2.15976
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.06612
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.03703
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.03550
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.25022
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.68293
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.67964
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.03780
  • SD
    0.03537
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.06852
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.06382
  • df
    171.00000
  • t
    0.75555
  • p
    0.46330
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.70708
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.84116
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.71028
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.83792
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.51566
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.05720
  • Upside part of mean
    0.25079
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.21300
  • Upside SD
    0.02502
  • Downside SD
    0.02494
  • N nonnegative terms
    83.00000
  • N negative terms
    89.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    172.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15299
  • Mean of criterion
    0.03780
  • SD of predictor
    0.10886
  • SD of criterion
    0.03537
  • Covariance
    0.00244
  • r
    0.63321
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.20575
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.00632
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00075
  • DF error
    170.00000
  • t(b)
    10.66700
  • p(b)
    0.18340
  • t(a)
    0.16227
  • p(a)
    0.49378
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.16767
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.24382
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.07056
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.08319
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.18370
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.00632
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.03717
  • SD
    0.03538
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.05048
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.04587
  • df
    171.00000
  • t
    0.74281
  • p
    0.46392
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.72503
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.82305
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.72815
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.81989
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.48731
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.02230
  • Upside part of mean
    0.25047
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.21330
  • Upside SD
    0.02498
  • Downside SD
    0.02499
  • N nonnegative terms
    83.00000
  • N negative terms
    89.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    172.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14706
  • Mean of criterion
    0.03717
  • SD of predictor
    0.10886
  • SD of criterion
    0.03538
  • Covariance
    0.00244
  • r
    0.63461
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.20628
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.00684
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00075
  • DF error
    170.00000
  • t(b)
    10.70650
  • p(b)
    0.18269
  • t(a)
    0.17576
  • p(a)
    0.49326
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.02000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.16824
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.24431
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.06993
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.08360
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.18020
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.00684
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00303
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00382
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00145
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00290
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    172.00000
  • Minimum
    0.99158
  • Quartile 1
    0.99931
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00112
  • Maximum
    1.00533
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99779
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99979
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00054
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00243
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00182
  • Number outliers low
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03488
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99494
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.02326
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00471
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.05516
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00212
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00284
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.23154
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00198
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00302
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    13.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00005
  • Quartile 1
    0.00132
  • Median
    0.00231
  • Quartile 3
    0.00674
  • Maximum
    0.02743
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00055
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00199
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00557
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.01811
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00542
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.15385
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.02150
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.75182
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01582
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01625
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.07099
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02607
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03579
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    402
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.04768
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.04825
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.75916
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    2.66353
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    12.63190

Strategy Description

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2010-09-01
Suggested Minimum Capital
$100,000
# Trades
19
# Profitable
10
% Profitable
52.6%
Net Dividends
Correlation S&P500
0.777
Sharpe Ratio
0.30
Sortino Ratio
0.40
Beta
0.48
Alpha
-0.00

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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