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Momentum and Value

Options · Started Sep 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-26.0%
Max Drawdown
90.5%
Trades
10
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
0.40
Win Months
0.5%

About this strategy

Technical and market timing. Using momentum and value.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201044.0-22.4-74.5-56.7-87.7
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/5/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age196 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades10
# Profitable5
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration38.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown90.5%
drawdown periodOct 15, 2010 - Dec 20, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)-26.0%
Avg win$1,131
Avg loss$2,714

Ratios

W:L ratio0.42
Sharpe Ratio-0.32
Sortino Ratio-0.41
Calmar Ratio-0.40

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life595.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-172.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-26.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-9.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1389.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,714
Avg Win$1,131
# Winners5
Sum Trade PL (losers)$13,570
Sum Trade PL (winners)$5,653
Num Months Winners1
# Losers5
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table194

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)55617.48
Avg Position Time (hrs)926.96
Avg Trade Length38.60
Last Trade Ago5784

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.58

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.52
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.12
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.72
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.07
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.56
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats2.61
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats15.62
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.50
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.93

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.39
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.54
df26
t-0.83
p0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.78
Sortino ratio-0.68
Upside Potential Ratio0.46
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.57
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms26
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion-0.39
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.40
Mean Square Error0.51
DF error25
t(b)0.07
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.77
p(a)0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.40
Mean-0.71
SD0.87
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.79
df26
t-1.22
p0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.54
Sortino ratio-0.86
Upside Potential Ratio0.25
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.91
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.82
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms26
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion-0.71
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.87
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.68
Mean Square Error0.79
DF error25
t(b)-0.09
p(b)0.54
t(a)-1.06
p(a)0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)8.27
Jensen alpha (a)-0.68
VaR(95%)0.38
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.44
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.38
Mean-0.49
SD0.63
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.78
df778
t-1.18
p0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.52
Sortino ratio-1.03
Upside Potential Ratio2.24
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-1.57
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms745
N of observations779
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion-0.49
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.63
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.40
DF error777
t(b)1.51
p(b)0.07
t(a)-1.28
p(a)0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.43
Jensen alpha (a)-0.54
Mean-0.70
SD0.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.07
df778
t-1.62
p0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.23
Sortino ratio-1.30
Upside Potential Ratio1.86
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-1.71
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms745
N of observations779
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion-0.70
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.65
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.74
Mean Square Error0.43
DF error777
t(b)1.40
p(b)0.08
t(a)-1.70
p(a)0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.74
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.22620996903895e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.8699698456022e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.41
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.60
Mean of quarter 10.79
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.52
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.60
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.77
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.82
Number of observations779
Minimum0.67
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.40
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low44
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high34
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.87
Median0.87
Quartile 30.87
Maximum0.87
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.06
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.88
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.88
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.88
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)66
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.35
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.50
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.58
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.35
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.50
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.57
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.57
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.95
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
POL long2800Dec 19, 2010Dec 20, 2010$1,423
BRF1122A60 long11Oct 19, 2010Dec 20, 2010($2,545)
EWH1122A18 long4Oct 21, 2010Dec 20, 2010($266)
POL1018L12.5 long28Oct 8, 2010Dec 19, 2010($3,240)
VHC1018L17 long12Oct 14, 2010Dec 19, 2010($3,608)
SOL1020K13 long33Oct 8, 2010Nov 21, 2010($3,983)
EWM1016J12 long33Sep 7, 2010Oct 5, 2010$844
CIB1122A65 long6Sep 10, 2010Oct 5, 2010$592
ECH1020K70 long12Sep 7, 2010Oct 5, 2010$2,683
GXG long160Sep 7, 2010Sep 10, 2010$32

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.