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zFutures Div-Sectors Mini

Futures · Started Dec 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-7.4%
Max Drawdown
80.7%
Trades
95
Win Trades
48.4%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
1.6%

About this strategy

Applies the same methodology as the fully-diversified zFutures program -- to a subset of the markets (to achieve a lower initial account size).

Trades currencies, fixed income, metals, energy, grains, meats, and soft commodities. Systematic and quantitative trading system has intermediate to long-term time frame. Diversified in terms of both time-frame and trading methodologies.

Approach uses a variety of quantitative and statistical tools including Monte Carlo analyses, blind-tests, bootstrapping, and live trading experience. Applies computer aided research and technology -- and machine-learning techniques.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20103.43.4
2011-10.44.2-6.211.8-3.1-8.6-10.5-15.1-21.1-12.7-34.6-2.1-71.0
2012-1.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.7
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/29/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age192 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades95
# Profitable46
% Profitable48.4%
Avg trade duration9.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown80.7%
drawdown periodDec 31, 2010 - Dec 07, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)-7.4%
Avg win$852
Avg loss$1,162

Ratios

W:L ratio0.69
Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Sortino Ratio-0.50
Calmar Ratio-0.26

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life505.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-578.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-7.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-5.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity252.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,162
Avg Win$852
# Winners46
Sum Trade PL (losers)$56,951
Sum Trade PL (winners)$39,201
Num Months Winners3
# Losers49
% Winners48.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table191

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)13911
Avg Position Time (hrs)231.85
Avg Trade Length9.70
Last Trade Ago5395

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.43

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.07
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.81
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.82
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.75
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats64.09
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.19
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.79
df55
t-1.74
p0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.12
Sortino ratio-0.83
Upside Potential Ratio0.28
Upside part of mean0.06
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms51
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error54
t(b)0.72
p(b)0.24
t(a)-1.87
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.72
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
Mean-0.23
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.82
df55
t-1.79
p0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.10
Sortino ratio-0.84
Upside Potential Ratio0.23
Upside part of mean0.06
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms51
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion-0.23
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error54
t(b)0.72
p(b)0.24
t(a)-1.91
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.74
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean-0.18
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.65
df1230
t-1.42
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.25
Sortino ratio-0.80
Upside Potential Ratio2.40
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms126
N negative terms1105
N of observations1231
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error1229
t(b)1.91
p(b)0.47
t(a)-1.58
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
Mean-0.22
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.76
df1230
t-1.66
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.14
Sortino ratio-0.90
Upside Potential Ratio2.14
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms126
N negative terms1105
N of observations1231
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error1229
t(b)2.15
p(b)0.46
t(a)-1.81
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.60
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.52
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6652669192044544
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.70701341227274e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations56
Minimum0.68
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations1231
Minimum0.71
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low124
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high127
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.25
Median0.37
Quartile 30.50
Maximum0.63
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.63
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.11
Median0.15
Quartile 30.41
Maximum0.67
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.67
Inter Quartile Range0.30
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-537060992
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)341
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.08
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.75
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 34 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@JE H2long1Nov 30, 2011Jan 11, 2012$617
@FV H2long1Nov 30, 2011Jan 11, 2012$773
@YG G2long1Dec 2, 2011Dec 8, 2011($1,409)
@QG F2short1Oct 31, 2011Nov 17, 2011$1,055
@LE G2long1Nov 10, 2011Nov 15, 2011($1,048)
@OJ F2long1Oct 27, 2011Oct 31, 2011($1,298)
@YG Z1long1Oct 28, 2011Oct 31, 2011($775)
@JE Z1long2Oct 4, 2011Oct 31, 2011($3,172)
@FV Z1long1Oct 13, 2011Oct 28, 2011($8)
@SM Z1short1Oct 21, 2011Oct 27, 2011($68)
@YG Z1long1Oct 20, 2011Oct 21, 2011$825
@SB H2long1Oct 19, 2011Oct 20, 2011($982)
@CC Z1short1Oct 13, 2011Oct 14, 2011($288)
@C Z1short1Oct 11, 2011Oct 13, 2011$430
@FV Z1long1Oct 6, 2011Oct 11, 2011($773)
@LE Z1long1Oct 6, 2011Oct 10, 2011($758)
@YG Z1long1Oct 6, 2011Oct 10, 2011$932
@BO Z1long1Sep 29, 2011Oct 4, 2011($1,772)
@YG Z1long1Sep 29, 2011Oct 4, 2011$341
@SB H2long1Sep 27, 2011Sep 29, 2011$1,358
@ES Z1short1Sep 26, 2011Sep 26, 2011($421)
@C Z1long1Sep 13, 2011Sep 22, 2011($3,158)
@QC Z1long1Sep 20, 2011Sep 21, 2011($1,558)
@DX Z1short1Sep 8, 2011Sep 21, 2011($2,323)
@YG Z1long1Sep 12, 2011Sep 20, 2011($303)
@SB H2long1Sep 16, 2011Sep 19, 2011($1,408)
@QC Z1long1Sep 12, 2011Sep 16, 2011$717
@SB V1long1Sep 6, 2011Sep 9, 2011$843
@QM V1short1Aug 29, 2011Sep 6, 2011$1,330
@YG Z1long1Aug 25, 2011Aug 26, 2011$1,300

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.