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Alphergence - SP500 ETF




Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes typical commissions and system fees)

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2011                     +4.9%+1.7%(9.6%)+4.4%  -    -    -    -    -  
2012  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  
2013  -    -    -    -    -                                            
There is a substantial risk of loss when trading futures, forex, stocks, or options. Hide this

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Technical Analysis:  Moving Average daysX

Instruments Stocks
Strategies Market timing
System started 4/13/2011 (26 months ago)
System developer Variance LLC
(Last login to C2: 5/21/13 20:59)
C2 Score: 957

Vendor has created 8 other systems. Show
StatusThis system is no longer supported.



Recently Closed Trades

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Hypothetical Trading Results
Opened ETB/S#Symbol PriceClosedPriceRiskP/L
7/18/11 12:49 BUY 900 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 51.22 7/20
9:32
53.66 Low $2,178
6/2/11 15:59 BUY 900 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 52.35 6/23
9:38
49.14 High ($2,907)
5/5/11 15:58 BUY 900 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 53.98 6/1
15:59
52.52 Normal ($1,332)
4/13/11 15:58 BUY 900 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 52.40 4/27
9:30
55.21 Normal $2,507

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Statistics

Analytics  
All Statistics Based on Hypothetical Results
Trades4
# Profitable2 (50.0%)
# months tracked26
Profitable months3 (11.5%)
Avg trade duration15.8 days
Annual return (compounded)0.5%
Average win$2,360
Average loss$2,101
Profit factor1.1:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)11.7%
drawdown periodMay 10, 2011 to June 15, 2011
Correlation w/ S&P0.223
Sharpe ratio0.015
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)0.07
Average P/L per unit traded$0.14


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System Description

PLEASE NOTE: This system is a sister system to my Alphergence - SP500 which is currently available here. This systems only BUYS the Ultra S&P500 ETFs. GENERAL I have been developing trading systems for a long time for personal use as well as for the intellectual learning. The suite of Alphergence models is a result of this endeavor. All my systems involve a Prediction methodology, based on some proprietary multi-factor non-linear models. It is my belief that the markets, though random in the long run, have some predictive power on a shorter time frame. This model in particular is based on the relative levels of open to close of the upcoming trading day. There is a threshold, beyond which (or below which), signals are issued. The trade is opened at the NY close (1600 EST, or around) and closes at the New York Close (around 1600 EST) the day the exit signal is generated. The model is designed to extract the Alpha from the market with this relative valuation signal. WHAT IT TRADES This version trades only 2 ETFs that are based on the S&P 500 Index. These are SDS and SSO. The system only issues a BUY signal on them, thus making it possible to be traded in IRA accounts and non-margin accounts where selling short is not allowed. SDS - PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 UltraShort S&P500 ProShares is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 Index. SSO - PROSHARES ULTRA S&P500 Ultra S&P500 ProShares is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index. HOW TO TRADE ALPHERGENCE - SP500 ETFs You can autotrade this system via the C2 AutoTrader tool. The system issues a BUY signal for EITHER of the two ETFs at the NY market Close (1600 EST) and closes the position around the NY Close (1600 EST) on the day the exit signal is generated. When the system issues a LONG signal, SSO ETF is bought and when the system issues a SHORT signal, SDS ETF are bought. At times, the system is flat. HOW MUCH MONEY CAN I START WITH The system built here is using a starting capital base of $50,000. The trade size is approximately $50,000 per day, rounded down. It will not scale up as the equity goes up. You can replicate the performance of this to adapt to your account size using your own scaling. The system NEVER USES MARGIN. WHEN ARE THE SIGNALS ISSUED Before the market closes in NY (1600 EST). Normally, the signals are sent to you prior to the market open on the day that the signal needs to be executed. If you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate in sending me an email.

- This System Description text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that this text above is an accurate system description. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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$72.89 per profitable trade recommendation Details

This is a pay-for-performance system. You will be charged $72.89 per trade - but only if a trade is closed at a profit.

Please note that, to determine profitability, we do not look at your brokerage account, nor do we take into consideration whether you made the trades recommended here, nor the trade prices you received. We simply measure the system's hypothetical opening and closing prices here on C2, without factoring in fees or commissions. You will not be charged unless a trade is profitable.



 

Overview

_underlinebegin_ Trades the S&P 500 Ultra ETFs (SDS and SSO). Buys only so you can trade this in your account where you cannot short stocks (like non-margin account IRA etc). _underlineend_
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- This text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified the Overview text above. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Model Account Status

Started$50,000
Buy Power$50,517
Cash$50,517
Equity$0
Cumulative $$517
Total System Equity$50,517
Margined$0
Open P/L$0


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