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myRun

Forex · Started Jul 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.3%
Max Drawdown
4.4%
Trades
113
Win Trades
59.3%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
0.5%

About this strategy

Forex trader since 2004. Professional programmer with knowledge of C++, Asp.NET. I have developed a strategy based on inverse trend of breaking minimum and maximum based on a very short period.
The strategy is proved on a real account for about a year and has consistently produced a profit of 10% per month with a Risk / Reward Ratio = +5.61 and a maximum drawdown of 4.75%. The maximum number of open orders in a day was 7, the risk for each trade is 1.5% of the capital. I recommend having a minimum capital of 10k to invest if you want to open orders of 0.1 lots. Hoping to repeat the same performance here I wish you all a good trading.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011-0.8-0.80.1-0.0-0.2-0.8-2.6
2012-0.9-0.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.7
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/21/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age186 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades113
# Profitable67
% Profitable59.3%
Avg trade duration2.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown4.4%
drawdown periodOct 19, 2011 - Feb 24, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.3%
Avg win$14
Avg loss$13

Ratios

W:L ratio1.59
Sharpe Ratio-2.25
Sortino Ratio-2.57
Calmar Ratio0.79

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life467.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-474.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity4.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated50.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$13
Avg Win$14
# Winners67
Sum Trade PL (losers)$597
Sum Trade PL (winners)$948
Num Months Winners1
# Losers46
% Winners59.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table184

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)173.43
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.89
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago5463

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index1.92

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.24
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.21
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats61.02
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats63.99
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.89
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.71
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.02
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.06
df38
t-1.95
p0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.05
Sortino ratio-2.14
Upside Potential Ratio1.17
Upside part of mean0.01
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms37
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error37
t(b)-0.00
p(b)0.50
t(a)-1.76
p(a)0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)3123.57
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.02
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.08
df38
t-1.99
p0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.03
Sortino ratio-2.15
Upside Potential Ratio1.15
Upside part of mean0.01
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms37
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error37
t(b)0.03
p(b)0.49
t(a)-1.82
p(a)0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-66.35
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.02
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.51
df872
t-2.76
p1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Sortino ratio-2.29
Upside Potential Ratio2.59
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms844
N of observations873
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error871
t(b)-1.61
p(b)0.95
t(a)-2.60
p(a)1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)10.39
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.02
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.52
df872
t-2.77
p1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Sortino ratio-2.30
Upside Potential Ratio2.58
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms844
N of observations873
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error871
t(b)-1.62
p(b)0.95
t(a)-2.63
p(a)1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)10.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6799715450486784
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.14694245198981e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations39
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations873
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high30
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-498299104
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)128
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.02
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.92
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/USD long10Nov 7, 2011Nov 8, 2011$5
GBP/USD short10Nov 7, 2011Nov 7, 2011($0)
GBP/USD short10Nov 7, 2011Nov 7, 2011$27
GBP/USD short10Nov 7, 2011Nov 7, 2011($2)
GBP/USD long10Nov 6, 2011Nov 7, 2011($35)
GBP/USD short10Nov 3, 2011Nov 4, 2011$4
GBP/USD short20Oct 25, 2011Nov 3, 2011$4
GBP/USD long10Oct 25, 2011Oct 25, 2011$3
GBP/USD long10Oct 25, 2011Oct 25, 2011($12)
GBP/USD short10Oct 25, 2011Oct 25, 2011($3)
GBP/USD short10Oct 24, 2011Oct 25, 2011$24
GBP/USD long10Oct 24, 2011Oct 24, 2011($0)
GBP/USD short10Oct 24, 2011Oct 24, 2011$20
GBP/USD short10Oct 23, 2011Oct 24, 2011($24)
GBP/USD short10Oct 21, 2011Oct 21, 2011($1)
GBP/USD short10Oct 20, 2011Oct 20, 2011($9)
GBP/USD long10Oct 19, 2011Oct 20, 2011($20)
GBP/USD short10Oct 19, 2011Oct 19, 2011$8
GBP/USD long10Oct 18, 2011Oct 19, 2011$16
GBP/USD short10Oct 18, 2011Oct 18, 2011$1
GBP/USD short10Oct 17, 2011Oct 18, 2011$1
GBP/USD short10Oct 17, 2011Oct 17, 2011$4
GBP/USD short10Oct 17, 2011Oct 17, 2011$6
GBP/USD short10Oct 14, 2011Oct 14, 2011$11
GBP/USD long10Oct 14, 2011Oct 14, 2011($0)
GBP/USD long10Oct 14, 2011Oct 14, 2011$4
GBP/USD short10Oct 14, 2011Oct 14, 2011($9)
GBP/USD long10Oct 13, 2011Oct 14, 2011$16
GBP/USD short10Oct 13, 2011Oct 13, 2011$23
GBP/USD short10Oct 12, 2011Oct 13, 2011$25

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.