Remember that all results on this page are hypothetical. Learn what this means. (Hide this warning for 24 hours.) OK. For the next 24 hours, we will only show a small "Hypothetical Results" reminder at the top of each System Page. You can always click it to show a detailed explanation about Hypothetical Results.
Started: 11/2011
Forex
Last trade: 960 days ago

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $49.00 per week. You will be charged at the end of the term, but only if the Model Account on this web page has been profitable for the preceding week.

Try AutoTrade for free. We'll give you $100,000 in a Simulated Broker Account to AutoTrade Iris Fx.

Free AutoTrade
4.6%
Annual Return (Compounded)
18.4%
Max Drawdown
82
Num Trades
46.3%
Win Trades
1.3 : 1
Profit Factor
8.6%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011                                                                      +28.2%+2.4%+31.4%
2012+4.3%(16.9%)  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  (13.4%)
2013  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2014  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -                    

Model Account Details

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Closed Trades

CSV
Show More detailsShow fewer details
Opened ETB/S#Symbol PriceClosedPriceDDP/L
2/13/12 19:41 SELL 1 AUD/USD 1.07165 2/14 5:02 1.07083 0.26%
Trade id #70568815
Max drawdown($7)
Time2/13/12 20:01
Quant open-1
Worst price1.07236
Drawdown as % of equity-0.26%
$7
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/13/12 18:54 BUY 1 USD/CHF 0.91886 2/14 5:00 0.91553 1.35%
Trade id #70567863
Max drawdown($36)
Time2/14/12 5:00
Quant open0
Worst price0.91553
Drawdown as % of equity-1.35%
($37)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/12/12 18:53 BUY 1 EUR/USD 1.32332 2/13 18:49 1.31520 3.27%
Trade id #70515976
Max drawdown($89)
Time2/13/12 18:41
Quant open1
Worst price1.31442
Drawdown as % of equity-3.27%
($82)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/12/12 23:54 BUY 1 AUD/USD 1.07413 2/13 17:51 1.07208 0.76%
Trade id #70520863
Max drawdown($21)
Time2/13/12 2:06
Quant open1
Worst price1.07203
Drawdown as % of equity-0.76%
($22)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/12/12 23:56 SELL 1 USD/CHF 0.91282 2/13 15:06 0.91631 1.4%
Trade id #70520907
Max drawdown($38)
Time2/13/12 15:06
Quant open0
Worst price0.91631
Drawdown as % of equity-1.40%
($39)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/8/12 10:49 BUY 1 GBP/USD 1.58126 2/10 8:23 1.57680 1.56%
Trade id #70406269
Max drawdown($47)
Time2/10/12 8:17
Quant open1
Worst price1.57654
Drawdown as % of equity-1.56%
($46)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/9/12 19:57 BUY 1 AUD/USD 1.07660 2/10 8:23 1.06404 4.2%
Trade id #70469709
Max drawdown($127)
Time2/10/12 7:17
Quant open1
Worst price1.06390
Drawdown as % of equity-4.20%
($127)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/7/12 11:00 BUY 1 EUR/USD 1.32426 2/10 8:21 1.31725 2.32%
Trade id #70369731
Max drawdown($70)
Time2/10/12 8:21
Quant open0
Worst price1.31725
Drawdown as % of equity-2.32%
($71)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/7/12 11:00 SELL 1 USD/CHF 0.91274 2/10 7:16 0.91667 1.42%
Trade id #70369770
Max drawdown($43)
Time2/10/12 7:16
Quant open0
Worst price0.91667
Drawdown as % of equity-1.42%
($44)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/5/12 20:33 BUY 1 USD/JPY 76.560 2/7 10:41 76.867 0.23%
Trade id #70268457
Max drawdown($7)
Time2/6/12 13:36
Quant open1
Worst price76.504
Drawdown as % of equity-0.23%
$39
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
2/2/12 6:50 SELL 3 EUR/USD 1.31256 2/7 10:11 1.30959 2.34%
Trade id #70196659
Max drawdown($68)
Time2/3/12 8:32
Quant open-1
Worst price1.32046
Drawdown as % of equity-2.34%
$86
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $3.00
2/1/12 4:32 BUY 2 EUR/USD 1.31509 2/2 4:00 1.31301 1.38%
Trade id #70154468
Max drawdown($42)
Time2/2/12 4:00
Quant open0
Worst price1.31301
Drawdown as % of equity-1.38%
($44)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $2.00
2/1/12 9:21 SELL 1 USD/CHF 0.91556 2/2 3:10 0.91680 0.46%
Trade id #70162372
Max drawdown($14)
Time2/2/12 3:10
Quant open0
Worst price0.91680
Drawdown as % of equity-0.46%
($15)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/31/12 23:25 BUY 1 USD/CHF 0.92159 2/1 4:29 0.91839 1.14%
Trade id #70147997
Max drawdown($35)
Time2/1/12 4:29
Quant open0
Worst price0.91839
Drawdown as % of equity-1.14%
($36)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/31/12 10:54 SELL 1 EUR/USD 1.30867 2/1 4:14 1.31080 0.68%
Trade id #70127458
Max drawdown($21)
Time2/1/12 4:14
Quant open0
Worst price1.31080
Drawdown as % of equity-0.68%
($22)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/31/12 5:39 BUY 1 GBP/JPY 120.443 1/31 10:42 119.967 1.99%
Trade id #70117667
Max drawdown($62)
Time1/31/12 10:42
Quant open0
Worst price119.967
Drawdown as % of equity-1.99%
($63)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/29/12 22:25 BUY 1 AUD/USD 1.06104 1/30 5:15 1.05263 2.69%
Trade id #70073520
Max drawdown($84)
Time1/30/12 5:15
Quant open0
Worst price1.05263
Drawdown as % of equity-2.69%
($85)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/26/12 18:49 BUY 1 EUR/USD 1.31070 1/27 14:05 1.32094 1%
Trade id #70033234
Max drawdown($30)
Time1/26/12 19:32
Quant open1
Worst price1.30765
Drawdown as % of equity-1.00%
$101
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/27/12 11:00 BUY 1 AUD/USD 1.06286 1/27 14:05 1.06515 0.09%
Trade id #70052860
Max drawdown($2)
Time1/27/12 11:02
Quant open1
Worst price1.06257
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
$22
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/20/12 9:46 BUY 1 EUR/USD 1.29237 1/26 4:54 1.31641 1.79%
Trade id #69877016
Max drawdown($49)
Time1/22/12 17:45
Quant open1
Worst price1.28743
Drawdown as % of equity-1.79%
$239
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/23/12 20:24 SELL 1 USD/CAD 1.00812 1/26 4:52 1.00018 2.32%
Trade id #69932912
Max drawdown($65)
Time1/25/12 7:35
Quant open-1
Worst price1.01469
Drawdown as % of equity-2.32%
$78
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/19/12 22:35 BUY 1 USD/CAD 1.01327 1/20 9:18 1.01352 0.46%
Trade id #69864368
Max drawdown($12)
Time1/20/12 2:35
Quant open1
Worst price1.01199
Drawdown as % of equity-0.46%
$1
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/18/12 3:34 SELL 1 EUR/USD 1.27392 1/19 4:35 1.29000 5.81%
Trade id #69790788
Max drawdown($161)
Time1/19/12 4:35
Quant open0
Worst price1.29000
Drawdown as % of equity-5.81%
($162)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/18/12 9:09 BUY 1 USD/JPY 76.847 1/18 16:45 76.739 0.48%
Trade id #69799952
Max drawdown($14)
Time1/18/12 16:45
Quant open0
Worst price76.739
Drawdown as % of equity-0.48%
($15)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/17/12 8:44 SELL 1 GBP/USD 1.53808 1/17 19:36 1.53442 0.14%
Trade id #69748231
Max drawdown($3)
Time1/17/12 8:47
Quant open-1
Worst price1.53847
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
$36
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/17/12 2:57 BUY 1 GBP/USD 1.53688 1/17 8:43 1.53798 0.55%
Trade id #69740890
Max drawdown($15)
Time1/17/12 4:30
Quant open1
Worst price1.53531
Drawdown as % of equity-0.55%
$10
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/13/12 9:09 BUY 1 USD/CHF 0.95196 1/16 23:08 0.95029 0.62%
Trade id #69694354
Max drawdown($18)
Time1/16/12 22:51
Quant open1
Worst price0.95017
Drawdown as % of equity-0.62%
($19)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/15/12 19:00 BUY 1 USD/JPY 76.916 1/16 22:48 76.703 0.97%
Trade id #69717881
Max drawdown($29)
Time1/16/12 10:01
Quant open1
Worst price76.691
Drawdown as % of equity-0.97%
($29)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/16/12 2:45 SELL 1 EUR/USD 1.26628 1/16 21:51 1.27328 2.31%
Trade id #69723324
Max drawdown($70)
Time1/16/12 21:51
Quant open0
Worst price1.27328
Drawdown as % of equity-2.31%
($71)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $1.00
1/13/12 9:18 SELL 2 AUD/USD 1.02858 1/16 11:17 1.03370 3.4%
Trade id #69694624
Max drawdown($103)
Time1/16/12 11:17
Quant open0
Worst price1.03370
Drawdown as % of equity-3.40%
($105)
Includes Typical Broker Commission and AutoTrade Fees trade costs of $2.00

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    11/12/2011
  • Age
    35 months ago
  • What it trades
    Forex
  • # Trades
    82
  • # Profitable
    38
  • % Profitable
    46.30%
  • Avg trade duration
    1.5 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    18.38%
  • drawdown period
    Jan 13, 2012 - Feb 14, 2012
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    4.6%
  • Avg win
    $75.18
  • Avg loss
    $50.94
  • W:L ratio
    1.27:1
  • Open PL
    $0.00
  • Open PL (start day)
    $0.00
  • Open PL Change $
    $0.00
  • Open PL Change %
    n/a
  • Close PL
    $615.32
  • Closed PL (start day)
    $615.00
  • Closed PL Change $
    $0.32
  • Closed PL Change %
    0.05%
  • Equity
    $2,615
  • Equity (start day)
    $2,615
  • Equity Change $
    $0.32
  • Equity Change %
    0.01%
  • GENERAL STATISTICS
  • Age
    1054
  • # Trades
    82
  • Avg Trade Length
    1.5
  • PROFIT
  • Profit Factor
    1.3
  • SORTINO STATISTICS
  • Sortino Ratio
    1.438
  • CALMAR STATISTICS
  • Calmar Ratio
    1.645
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    4.6%
  • SHARPE STATISTICS
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.810
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    9.7%
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    20.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    13.33%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • PROFIT STATISTICS
  • APD
    0.14
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Max Drawdown
    18.4%
  • POPULARITY STATISTICS
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • TOS STATISTICS
  • Trades Own System?
    67
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • BILLING STATISTICS
  • Subscription Price
    $49
  • Billing Period (days)
    7
  • Trial Days
    0
  • WIN STATISTICS
  • Avg Loss
    $51
  • Avg Win
    $75
  • # Winners
    38
  • # Losers
    44
  • % Winners
    46.3%
  • TIME STATISTICS
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    2173.92
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    36.23
  • OWNER STATISTICS
  • Developer
    -
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.33104
  • SD
    0.40877
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.80985
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.75313
  • df
    11.00000
  • t
    0.80985
  • p
    0.21760
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.19607
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.78050
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.23194
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.73819
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.03734
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.18874
  • Upside part of mean
    0.51813
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.18709
  • Upside SD
    0.36865
  • Downside SD
    0.16249
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    10.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    12.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.46896
  • Mean of criterion
    0.33104
  • SD of predictor
    0.17597
  • SD of criterion
    0.40877
  • Covariance
    -0.01489
  • r
    -0.20705
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.48097
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.55660
  • Mean Square Error
    0.17592
  • DF error
    10.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.66925
  • p(b)
    0.74076
  • t(a)
    1.03445
  • p(a)
    0.16265
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.08227
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.12033
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.64228
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.75547
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.68828
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.55660
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.25817
  • SD
    0.38022
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.67899
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.63144
  • df
    11.00000
  • t
    0.67899
  • p
    0.25559
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.31579
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.64400
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.34621
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.60908
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.45969
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.60015
  • Upside part of mean
    0.45987
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.20170
  • Upside SD
    0.32679
  • Downside SD
    0.17686
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    10.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    12.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.44691
  • Mean of criterion
    0.25817
  • SD of predictor
    0.16551
  • SD of criterion
    0.38022
  • Covariance
    -0.01198
  • r
    -0.19040
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.43739
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.45364
  • Mean Square Error
    0.15326
  • DF error
    10.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.61330
  • p(b)
    0.72332
  • t(a)
    0.89862
  • p(a)
    0.19499
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.02643
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.15165
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.67117
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.57846
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.59024
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.45364
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.14702
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.18460
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.04859
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.10204
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    12.00000
  • Minimum
    0.83949
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.28879
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.94040
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.17326
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.91060
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.25989
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    1.95999
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.16040
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.17586
  • Quartile 1
    0.17586
  • Median
    0.17586
  • Quartile 3
    0.17586
  • Maximum
    0.17586
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.30750
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.30750
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.74856
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    1.66578
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.29993
  • SD
    0.31651
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.94761
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.94559
  • df
    352.00000
  • t
    0.95993
  • p
    0.16888
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.98909
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.88308
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.99049
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.88166
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.75701
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.70579
  • Upside part of mean
    1.14471
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.84478
  • Upside SD
    0.26649
  • Downside SD
    0.17070
  • N nonnegative terms
    37.00000
  • N negative terms
    316.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    353.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.44279
  • Mean of criterion
    0.29993
  • SD of predictor
    0.19567
  • SD of criterion
    0.31651
  • Covariance
    -0.00515
  • r
    -0.08317
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.13453
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.35950
  • Mean Square Error
    0.09977
  • DF error
    351.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.56352
  • p(b)
    0.94058
  • t(a)
    1.14442
  • p(a)
    0.12662
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.30375
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.03469
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.25832
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.97732
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -2.22950
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.35950
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.25133
  • SD
    0.30967
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.81161
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.80987
  • df
    352.00000
  • t
    0.82215
  • p
    0.20577
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.12465
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.74684
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.12587
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.74562
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.43799
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.35727
  • Upside part of mean
    1.11112
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.85979
  • Upside SD
    0.25546
  • Downside SD
    0.17478
  • N nonnegative terms
    37.00000
  • N negative terms
    316.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    353.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.42348
  • Mean of criterion
    0.25133
  • SD of predictor
    0.19527
  • SD of criterion
    0.30967
  • Covariance
    -0.00491
  • r
    -0.08124
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.12883
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.30589
  • Mean Square Error
    0.09553
  • DF error
    351.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.52702
  • p(b)
    0.93617
  • t(a)
    0.99570
  • p(a)
    0.16004
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.29475
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.03710
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.29831
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.91008
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.95091
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.30589
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02638
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03313
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00798
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01729
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    353.00000
  • Minimum
    0.92922
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.14804
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99036
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01336
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    45.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.12748
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98094
  • Number of outliers high
    37.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10482
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.03178
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.35222
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00275
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00418
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.02311
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01065
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02098
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    10.00000
  • Minimum
    0.01036
  • Quartile 1
    0.02302
  • Median
    0.04636
  • Quartile 3
    0.09157
  • Maximum
    0.18153
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01548
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03621
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.06298
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.13839
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06855
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -3.79105
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.15588
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.15612
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.62008
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.19582
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.21574
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.29966
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.29859
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.64483
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    2.15767
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    9.01308
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00995
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.00000
  • df
    0.00000
  • t
    0.00000
  • p
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -18.54720
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.00995
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00054
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    172.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    172.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.68800
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00995
  • SD of predictor
    0.20414
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    0.00000
  • r
    0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.00000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    0.00000
  • t(b)
    0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.00000
  • p(a)
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.00000
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00995
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -31576300000000000.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -31437600000000000.00000
  • df
    171.00000
  • t
    -22327800000000000.00000
  • p
    1.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -34769500000000000.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -28105800000000000.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -18.54720
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.00995
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00054
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    172.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    172.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.66665
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00995
  • SD of predictor
    0.20380
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    -0.00000
  • r
    -0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.00995
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    170.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.50000
  • t(a)
    -21922200000000000.00000
  • p(a)
    1.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.00995
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.00995
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    52323199999999990365995365564416.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.00995
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00003
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00003
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00000
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    172.00000
  • Minimum
    1.00000
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    0.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00000
  • Median
    0.00000
  • Quartile 3
    0.00000
  • Maximum
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.00000

Strategy Description

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment. For any trading system on our Web site, we assume you will invest the amount that appears as the starting amount of that system's performance chart.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Okay, gotcha.