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EPS Signal




Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes typical commissions and system fees)

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2012                -  +1.9%(6.8%)+6.8%(5.9%)+3.6%(0.8%)+0.9%+6.0%+0.2%
2013+7.5%+1.1%+3.9%+2.0%+6.4%                                          
There is a substantial risk of loss when trading futures, forex, stocks, or options. Hide this

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Technical Analysis:  Moving Average daysX

Instruments Stocks
Strategies Buy undervalue, Technical analysis
System started 3/31/2012 (14 months ago)
System developer Quantitative Signal
(Last login to C2: 9/2/12 22:54)
C2 Score: 663

Vendor has created 1 other system. Show
StatusThis system is no longer supported.



Recently Closed Trades

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Hypothetical Trading Results
Opened ETB/S#Symbol PriceClosedPriceRiskP/L
7/30/12 9:30 BUY 6 MLNX MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIES 105.62 10/18
9:30
82.89 Low ($138)
7/2/12 9:31 BUY 113 ENTR ENTROPIC COMMUNICATIONS 5.64 7/30
9:31
5.97 Low $35
7/2/12 9:31 BUY 98 HA HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS INC 6.56 7/30
9:30
6.29 Low ($28)
7/2/12 9:30 BUY 69 LUV SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO 9.30 7/30
9:30
8.87 Low ($32)
6/25/12 9:31 BUY 63 WGO WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC 9.68 7/23
9:32
10.36 Low $41
6/25/12 9:32 BUY 21 MDC MDC HOLDINGS INC 28.97 7/23
9:30
31.45 Low $50
6/25/12 9:30 BUY 65 SONC SONIC CORP 9.33 7/23
9:30
10.04 Low $44
6/25/12 9:30 BUY 36 CTB COOPER TIRE & RUBBER CO 17.13 7/23
9:30
16.53 Low ($24)
6/18/12 9:30 BUY 33 FGP FERRELLGAS PARTNERS L.P. 17.99 7/16
9:30
19.57 Low $50
6/18/12 9:30 BUY 238 HOV HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES A 2.44 7/16
9:30
2.76 Low $71
6/18/12 9:30 BUY 49 LCC US AIRWAYS GROUP INC 12.03 7/16
9:30
14.40 Low $114
6/18/12 9:30 BUY 15 KORS MICHAEL KORS HOLDINGS 38.62 7/16
9:30
39.06 Low $5
5/14/12 9:30 BUY 39 HEES H&E EQUIPMENT SERVICES 16.05 7/9
9:30
15.10 Low ($39)
6/11/12 9:30 BUY 117 FXEN FX ENERGY 5.13 7/9
9:30
6.05 Low $106
6/11/12 9:30 BUY 1,310 AAMRQ AMR 0.44 7/9
9:30
0.49 Low $34

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Statistics

Analytics  
All Statistics Based on Hypothetical Results
Trades66
# Profitable40 (60.6%)
# months tracked15
Profitable months11 (73.3%)
Avg trade duration82.5 days
Annual return (compounded)29.5%
Average win$118
Average loss$53
Profit factor3.5:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)13.04%
drawdown periodMay 02, 2012 to June 04, 2012
Correlation w/ S&P0.656
Sharpe ratio2.09
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)1.15
Average P/L per unit traded($0.50)
Sum of dividends and cash expir. in model account$55


Reviews


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System Description

Description:
EPS Signal relies on the combination of a few powerful metrics to develop a portfolio designed to exploit the "EPS drift" market anomaly and over-perform the S&P. In particular, the fund looks for companies with positive earnings revisions, earnings and profit growth, earnings surprises. The fund is long only and trades stock of companies with a market cap in excess of $50M.


Approach & Discipline:
The portfolio is updated weekly on a 4-week rolling basis. Each week 4 stocks are added to the portfolio based on the screening criteria and the 4 stocks that were added to the fund 4 weeks earlier are sold unless they still meet the portfolio criteria. The target # of stocks is 16, with sometimes less stocks if in a given week less than 4 stocks meeting the selection requirements.

Backtesting:

I do not have access to the required data to perform a backtest with the rolling weekly approach of EPS Signal. However, the fund uses the same fundamental criteria as its twin fund "Quantitative Signal", which has delivered strong backtesting results. As noted in the description of Quantitative Signal: "The approach between January 2000 and December 2011, the fund would have produced compounded returns in excess of 25% p.a. (S&P over same period: -.5% p.a.)."


Disclaimer:
Past results are not indicative of future results and neither Vendor nor C2 is responsible for unfavorable performance deviations. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

- This System Description text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that this text above is an accurate system description. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Overview

EPS Signal is a 100% mechanical portfolio that leverages the "Forecast Revision Drift" market anomaly to define a rolling stock portfolio - with weekly trades - designed to over-perform the S&P. The fund generally holds between 12 and 16 long positions.
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- This text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified the Overview text above. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Model Account Status

Started$10,000
Buy Power$9,675
Cash$5,793
Equity$3,882
Cumulative $*$3,413
Dividends Itemized
Total System Equity$13,413
Margined$0
Open P/L$3,267


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