Advanced Statistics: Sky Hawk
Advanced Statistics module contributed by Jules Ellis, C2 Member. Jules has written a very helpful guide for these statistics. | |||||
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| ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTHLY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.234 | ||||
| SD | 0.392 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.597 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.592 | ||||
| df | 105.000 | ||||
| t | 1.773 | ||||
| p | 0.392 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.069 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.260 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.072 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.257 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 1.000 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.275 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.532 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.298 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.320 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.234 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 62.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 44.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 106.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.178 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.234 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.193 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.392 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.025 | ||||
| r | 0.333 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.676 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.114 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.138 | ||||
| DF error | 104.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 3.598 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.334 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.878 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.457 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.304 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.049 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.143 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.370 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.346 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.114 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.156 | ||||
| SD | 0.395 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.396 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.394 | ||||
| df | 105.000 | ||||
| t | 1.178 | ||||
| p | 0.427 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.266 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.057 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.268 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.055 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.550 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.718 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.489 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.332 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.275 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.284 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 62.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 44.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 106.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.158 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.156 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.191 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.395 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.031 | ||||
| r | 0.410 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.849 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.022 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.131 | ||||
| DF error | 104.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 4.588 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.295 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.178 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.491 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.482 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.216 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.226 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.270 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.184 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.022 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.160 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.198 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.049 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.110 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 106.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.534 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.984 | ||||
| Median | 1.014 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.071 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.616 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.911 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.001 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.040 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.141 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.087 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 5.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.047 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.741 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 3.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.028 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.427 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.480 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.070 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.163 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.366 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.095 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.195 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 11.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.015 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.065 | ||||
| Median | 0.103 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.231 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.482 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.035 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.083 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.182 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.403 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.166 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 1.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.091 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.482 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -605.906 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.418 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -4.664 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.838 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.838 | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.552 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.222 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.461 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.550 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 1.119 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.218 | ||||
| SD | 0.352 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.617 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.617 | ||||
| df | 2330.000 | ||||
| t | 1.842 | ||||
| p | 0.033 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.040 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.275 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.040 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.275 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.873 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.714 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.425 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -1.207 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.249 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.249 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 1025.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 1306.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 2331.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.200 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.218 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.245 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.352 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.033 | ||||
| r | 0.379 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.547 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.109 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.106 | ||||
| DF error | 2329.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 19.788 | ||||
| p(b) | -0.000 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.991 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.161 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.492 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.601 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.106 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.323 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.398 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.109 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.152 | ||||
| SD | 0.371 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.408 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.408 | ||||
| df | 2330.000 | ||||
| t | 1.218 | ||||
| p | 0.112 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.249 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.065 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.249 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.065 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.530 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.883 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.395 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -1.244 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.237 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.286 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 1025.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 1306.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 2331.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.169 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.152 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.247 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.371 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.037 | ||||
| r | 0.401 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.603 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.050 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.116 | ||||
| DF error | 2329.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 21.117 | ||||
| p(b) | -0.000 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.435 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.332 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.547 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.658 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.174 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.273 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.251 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.050 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.036 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.046 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.011 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.025 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 2331.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.562 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.996 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.005 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.286 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.983 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.999 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.002 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.020 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.009 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 159.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.068 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.961 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 178.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.076 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.042 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.582 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.015 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.041 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.313 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.014 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.025 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 60.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.001 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.005 | ||||
| Median | 0.015 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.062 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.504 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.002 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.009 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.037 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.201 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.057 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 7.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.117 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.323 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.307 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.187 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.333 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -1.813 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.203 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.209 | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.528 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.216 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.428 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.073 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 4.735 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, LAST 6 MONTHS (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.204 | ||||
| SD | 0.230 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.887 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.882 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | 0.627 | ||||
| p | 0.473 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.889 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.659 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.892 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 3.656 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 1.223 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 7.766 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.296 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -1.092 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.158 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.167 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 69.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 62.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.751 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.204 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.296 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.230 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.015 | ||||
| r | 0.224 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.174 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.073 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.051 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 2.605 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.359 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.228 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.487 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.042 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.306 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.564 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.711 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.173 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.073 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.178 | ||||
| SD | 0.231 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.768 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.763 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | 0.543 | ||||
| p | 0.476 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.007 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.540 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -2.010 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 3.537 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 1.041 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 7.528 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.284 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -1.106 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.155 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.171 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 69.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 62.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.706 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.178 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.297 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.231 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.016 | ||||
| r | 0.230 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.179 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.051 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.051 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 2.685 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.355 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.157 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.491 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.047 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.312 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.588 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.690 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.990 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.051 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.023 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.028 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.009 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.019 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.938 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.996 | ||||
| Median | 1.001 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.007 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.057 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.986 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.998 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.004 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.016 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.012 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 7.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.053 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.962 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 3.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.023 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.040 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.727 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.016 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.060 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.646 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.011 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.031 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 12.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.002 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.005 | ||||
| Median | 0.008 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.058 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.069 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.003 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.007 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.030 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.063 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.053 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -1.290 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.067 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.069 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.193 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.069 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.078 | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.234 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.248 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 3.598 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 3.919 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 8.743 | ||||