Advanced Statistics: Strawberry Rhubarb FX
Advanced Statistics module contributed by Jules Ellis, C2 Member. Jules has written a very helpful guide for these statistics. | |||||
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| ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTHLY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.155 | ||||
| SD | 0.418 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.370 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.365 | ||||
| df | 55.000 | ||||
| t | 0.800 | ||||
| p | 0.214 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.541 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.279 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.545 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.275 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.543 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.972 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.562 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.407 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.304 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.285 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 30.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 26.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 56.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.371 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.155 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.246 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.418 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.005 | ||||
| r | 0.050 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.085 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.123 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.177 | ||||
| DF error | 54.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.369 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.357 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.579 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.283 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.377 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.548 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.304 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.550 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.818 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.123 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.065 | ||||
| SD | 0.431 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.152 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.150 | ||||
| df | 55.000 | ||||
| t | 0.328 | ||||
| p | 0.372 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.756 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.059 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.758 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.058 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.199 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.584 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.520 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.454 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.273 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.328 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 30.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 26.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 56.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.336 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.065 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.240 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.431 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.006 | ||||
| r | 0.063 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.112 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.028 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.188 | ||||
| DF error | 54.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.461 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.323 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.128 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.449 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.377 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.601 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.407 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.462 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.582 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.028 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.180 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.221 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.073 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.155 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 56.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.684 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.982 | ||||
| Median | 1.013 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.076 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.361 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.878 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.995 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.039 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.155 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.093 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 5.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.089 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.743 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 3.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.054 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.285 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.829 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.117 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.751 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.079 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.105 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.164 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 4.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.006 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.178 | ||||
| Median | 0.286 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.418 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.663 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.006 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.235 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.336 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.663 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.240 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.143 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.116 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.174 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.174 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.523 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.140 | ||||
| SD | 0.380 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.370 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.369 | ||||
| df | 1230.000 | ||||
| t | 0.801 | ||||
| p | 0.489 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.535 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.274 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.535 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.274 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.486 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 6.036 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.741 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -1.601 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.247 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.288 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 664.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 567.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1231.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.398 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.140 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.303 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.380 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.008 | ||||
| r | 0.070 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.087 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.105 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.143 | ||||
| DF error | 1229.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 2.450 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.456 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.602 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.489 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.017 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.157 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.238 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.449 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.607 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.105 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.067 | ||||
| SD | 0.385 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.174 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.174 | ||||
| df | 1230.000 | ||||
| t | 0.377 | ||||
| p | 0.495 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.730 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.078 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.730 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.078 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.222 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.675 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.712 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -1.645 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.239 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.302 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 664.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 567.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1231.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.350 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.067 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.314 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.385 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.008 | ||||
| r | 0.067 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.083 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.038 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.147 | ||||
| DF error | 1229.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 2.369 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.457 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.214 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.496 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.014 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.151 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.310 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.386 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.810 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.038 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.038 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.048 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.013 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.029 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 1231.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.852 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.996 | ||||
| Median | 1.001 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.008 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.166 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.977 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.999 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.004 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.023 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.011 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 111.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.090 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.951 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 90.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.073 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.045 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.773 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.020 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.096 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.367 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.020 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.042 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 29.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.000 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.007 | ||||
| Median | 0.045 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.081 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.776 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.004 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.025 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.068 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.281 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.074 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 4.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.138 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.428 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.802 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.313 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 1.625 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 2.284 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.272 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.146 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.117 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.151 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.418 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 2.468 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, LAST 6 MONTHS (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.398 | ||||
| SD | 0.178 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 2.231 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 2.218 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | 1.578 | ||||
| p | 0.431 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.558 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 5.012 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.567 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 5.003 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 3.774 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 12.109 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.276 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.878 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.145 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.105 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 75.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 56.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 1.190 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.398 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.500 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.178 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.003 | ||||
| r | 0.029 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.010 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.385 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.032 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.334 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.481 | ||||
| t(a) | 1.506 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.417 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.052 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.073 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.121 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.891 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 37.902 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.385 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.382 | ||||
| SD | 0.177 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 2.150 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 2.138 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | 1.521 | ||||
| p | 0.434 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.638 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.930 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.646 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 4.922 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 3.593 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 11.914 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.265 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.884 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.143 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.106 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 75.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 56.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 1.065 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.382 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.496 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.177 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.002 | ||||
| r | 0.027 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.010 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.371 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.032 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.311 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.483 | ||||
| t(a) | 1.461 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.419 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.052 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.072 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.132 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.874 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 38.910 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.371 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.016 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.021 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.007 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.014 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.975 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.995 | ||||
| Median | 1.002 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.007 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.043 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.989 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.999 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.004 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.015 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.012 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 1.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.008 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.975 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 4.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.031 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.033 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.118 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.011 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.014 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.069 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.012 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.016 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 15.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.001 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.004 | ||||
| Median | 0.011 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.015 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.077 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.002 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.008 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.013 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.046 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.011 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 3.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.200 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.057 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -4.219 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.040 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.040 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -1.079 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.081 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.088 | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.474 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.531 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 6.897 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 11.417 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 25.353 | ||||