Advanced Statistics: FX Flame
Advanced Statistics module contributed by Jules Ellis, C2 Member. Jules has written a very helpful guide for these statistics. | |||||
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| ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTHLY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.225 | ||||
| SD | 0.240 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.935 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.920 | ||||
| df | 47.000 | ||||
| t | 1.869 | ||||
| p | 0.034 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.068 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.928 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.078 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.917 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 4.545 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.948 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.294 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.069 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.242 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.049 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 14.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 34.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 48.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.448 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.225 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.274 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.240 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.002 | ||||
| r | 0.034 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.029 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.212 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.059 | ||||
| DF error | 46.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.228 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.410 | ||||
| t(a) | 1.572 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.061 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.231 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.290 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.059 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.482 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 7.622 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.212 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.197 | ||||
| SD | 0.218 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.903 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.889 | ||||
| df | 47.000 | ||||
| t | 1.806 | ||||
| p | 0.039 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.098 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.895 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.108 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.885 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 3.864 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.242 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.268 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.070 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.218 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.051 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 14.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 34.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 48.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.405 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.197 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.262 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.218 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.003 | ||||
| r | 0.053 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.044 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.180 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.049 | ||||
| DF error | 46.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.357 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.361 | ||||
| t(a) | 1.485 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.072 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.203 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.291 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.064 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.423 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 4.499 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.180 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.084 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.107 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.016 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.033 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 48.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.919 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.008 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.269 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.987 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.001 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.101 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.008 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 4.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.083 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.964 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 8.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.167 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.146 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -47.290 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.000 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.000 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.295 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.023 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.064 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 5.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.000 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.007 | ||||
| Median | 0.013 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.019 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.110 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.004 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.013 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.019 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.110 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.012 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 1.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.200 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.110 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.406 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.273 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 2.479 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 2.479 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 2.546 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.223 | ||||
| SD | 0.234 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.951 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.950 | ||||
| df | 1049.000 | ||||
| t | 1.903 | ||||
| p | 0.463 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.029 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.930 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.030 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.930 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 2.071 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.221 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.562 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.339 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.209 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.108 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 155.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 895.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1050.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.462 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.223 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.320 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.234 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.001 | ||||
| r | 0.020 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.014 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.216 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.055 | ||||
| DF error | 1048.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.634 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.490 | ||||
| t(a) | 1.839 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.472 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.030 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.059 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.014 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.447 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 15.559 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.216 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.197 | ||||
| SD | 0.225 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.875 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.874 | ||||
| df | 1049.000 | ||||
| t | 1.751 | ||||
| p | 0.466 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.105 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.854 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.105 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.854 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 1.761 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.848 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.542 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.345 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.196 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.112 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 155.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 895.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1050.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.408 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.197 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.333 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.225 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.001 | ||||
| r | 0.019 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.013 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.191 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.051 | ||||
| DF error | 1048.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.629 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.490 | ||||
| t(a) | 1.698 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.474 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.028 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.054 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.030 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.413 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 14.974 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.191 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.022 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.028 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.004 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.009 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 1050.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.881 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.235 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.995 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.009 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.000 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 137.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.130 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.991 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 163.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.155 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.014 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.032 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.003 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.710 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.003 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.017 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 31.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.000 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.003 | ||||
| Median | 0.012 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.032 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.195 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.001 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.007 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.023 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.092 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.029 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 3.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.097 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.166 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.299 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.090 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.158 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.702 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.114 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.130 | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.406 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.272 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 1.393 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 2.949 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 9.896 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, LAST 6 MONTHS (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.044 | ||||
| SD | 0.000 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | NA | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | NA | ||||
| df | NA | ||||
| t | NA | ||||
| p | NA | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | NA | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | NA | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | NA | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | NA | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -16.186 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.000 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.000 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.044 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.000 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.003 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 0.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 131.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 1.050 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.044 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.479 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.000 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.000 | ||||
| r | NA | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | NA | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | NA | ||||
| Mean Square Error | NA | ||||
| DF error | NA | ||||
| t(b) | NA | ||||
| p(b) | NA | ||||
| t(a) | NA | ||||
| p(a) | NA | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | NA | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | NA | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | NA | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | NA | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | NA | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | NA | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.044 | ||||
| SD | 0.000 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -12492933348697024.000 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -12420719861132300.000 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | -8833837887775228.000 | ||||
| p | 1.000 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | NA | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | NA | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -13930479873814932.000 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -10910959848449668.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -16.186 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.000 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.000 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.044 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.000 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.003 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 0.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 131.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.933 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.044 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.482 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.000 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.000 | ||||
| r | -0.000 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.000 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.044 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.000 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -0.000 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.500 | ||||
| t(a) | -8736982082394638.000 | ||||
| p(a) | 1.000 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.000 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.000 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.044 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.044 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 98004913349418150263437477806080.000 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.044 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.000 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.000 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.000 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.000 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.000 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.000 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 0.000 | ||||
| Minimum | NA | ||||
| Quartile 1 | NA | ||||
| Median | NA | ||||
| Quartile 3 | NA | ||||
| Maximum | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | NA | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.000 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.000 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.000 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | NA | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | NA | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.000 | ||||