Advanced Statistics: Kingda Forex (20x)
Advanced Statistics module contributed by Jules Ellis, C2 Member. Jules has written a very helpful guide for these statistics. | |||||
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| ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTHLY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.063 | ||||
| SD | 0.140 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.450 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.445 | ||||
| df | 66.000 | ||||
| t | 1.064 | ||||
| p | 0.146 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.384 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.282 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.388 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.278 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.822 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.334 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.180 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.116 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.118 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.077 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 27.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 40.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 67.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.295 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.063 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.238 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.140 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.000 | ||||
| r | 0.007 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.004 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.062 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.020 | ||||
| DF error | 65.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.053 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.479 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.975 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.167 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.142 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.150 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.065 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.189 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 16.267 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.062 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.053 | ||||
| SD | 0.137 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.390 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.386 | ||||
| df | 66.000 | ||||
| t | 0.923 | ||||
| p | 0.180 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.443 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.221 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.446 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.218 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.673 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.170 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.172 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.119 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.111 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.079 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 27.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 40.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 67.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.265 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.053 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.227 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.137 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.001 | ||||
| r | 0.018 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.011 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.051 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.019 | ||||
| DF error | 65.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.148 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.441 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.819 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.208 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.139 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.161 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.073 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.174 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 4.819 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.051 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.059 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.074 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.025 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.050 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 67.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.910 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.997 | ||||
| Median | 1.001 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.021 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.165 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.970 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.008 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.058 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.024 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 5.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.075 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.929 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 8.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.119 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.091 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.724 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.020 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.086 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.138 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.032 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.046 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 8.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.005 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.012 | ||||
| Median | 0.024 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.071 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.168 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.008 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.014 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.051 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.121 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.059 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 1.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.125 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.168 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.130 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.102 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.609 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.844 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 1.382 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.061 | ||||
| SD | 0.127 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.480 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.480 | ||||
| df | 1468.000 | ||||
| t | 1.136 | ||||
| p | 0.485 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.348 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.308 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.348 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.308 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.690 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.211 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.462 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.401 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.091 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.089 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 594.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 875.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1469.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.316 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.061 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.262 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.127 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.000 | ||||
| r | -0.004 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.002 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.062 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.016 | ||||
| DF error | 1467.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -0.170 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.503 | ||||
| t(a) | 1.146 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.481 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.027 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.023 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.044 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.168 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -28.301 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.062 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.053 | ||||
| SD | 0.127 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.416 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.416 | ||||
| df | 1468.000 | ||||
| t | 0.986 | ||||
| p | 0.487 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.412 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.244 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.412 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.244 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.588 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.081 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.458 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.405 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.090 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.090 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 594.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 875.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1469.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.281 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.053 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.262 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.127 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.000 | ||||
| r | -0.004 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.002 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.054 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.016 | ||||
| DF error | 1467.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -0.146 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.502 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.993 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.484 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.027 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.023 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.052 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.159 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -28.711 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.054 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.013 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.016 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.004 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.009 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 1469.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.946 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.001 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.067 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.994 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.007 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.001 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 172.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.117 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.989 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 211.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.144 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.011 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.540 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.003 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.010 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.183 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.006 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.012 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 42.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.000 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.004 | ||||
| Median | 0.012 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.036 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.169 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.002 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.008 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.025 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.079 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.032 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 5.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.119 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.115 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.089 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.078 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.101 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.196 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.099 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.127 | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.129 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.102 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.604 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.294 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 6.410 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, LAST 6 MONTHS (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.051 | ||||
| SD | 0.006 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -8.255 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -8.207 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | -5.837 | ||||
| p | 0.728 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -11.188 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -5.293 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -11.153 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -5.261 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -7.894 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.487 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.016 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.067 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.002 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.006 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 40.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 91.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 1.038 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.051 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.452 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.006 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.001 | ||||
| r | -0.518 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.007 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.043 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.000 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -6.878 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.814 | ||||
| t(a) | -5.759 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.778 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.009 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.005 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.058 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.028 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 7.197 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.043 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.051 | ||||
| SD | 0.006 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -8.256 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -8.209 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | -5.838 | ||||
| p | 0.728 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -11.190 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -5.295 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -11.154 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -5.263 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -7.895 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.485 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.016 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.067 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.002 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.006 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 40.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 91.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.935 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.051 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.452 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.006 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.001 | ||||
| r | -0.518 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.007 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.044 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.000 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -6.870 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.814 | ||||
| t(a) | -5.867 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.782 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.009 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.005 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.059 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.029 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 7.210 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.044 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.001 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.001 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.001 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.001 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.999 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.001 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.999 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.000 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.000 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 4.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.031 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.999 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 2.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.015 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.001 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -1.588 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.000 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.001 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.019 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.001 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.001 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 3.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.000 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.001 | ||||
| Median | 0.002 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.004 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.005 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.002 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.005 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.002 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.007 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.007 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -1.455 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -1.455 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -6.823 | ||||