Advanced Statistics: discourse
Advanced Statistics module contributed by Jules Ellis, C2 Member. Jules has written a very helpful guide for these statistics. | |||||
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| ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTHLY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.039 | ||||
| SD | 0.099 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.394 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.390 | ||||
| df | 72.000 | ||||
| t | 0.971 | ||||
| p | 0.167 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.405 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.190 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.408 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.187 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.823 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.653 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.125 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.086 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.087 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.047 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 35.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 38.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 73.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.233 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.039 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.220 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.099 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.012 | ||||
| r | 0.558 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.250 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.019 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.007 | ||||
| DF error | 71.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 5.663 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.000 | ||||
| t(a) | -0.554 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.709 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.162 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.338 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.089 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.050 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.155 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.019 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.034 | ||||
| SD | 0.095 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.358 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.354 | ||||
| df | 72.000 | ||||
| t | 0.883 | ||||
| p | 0.190 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.440 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.154 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.443 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.151 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.712 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.535 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.121 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.087 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.082 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.048 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 35.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 38.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 73.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.208 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.034 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.204 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.095 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.011 | ||||
| r | 0.544 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.253 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.019 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.006 | ||||
| DF error | 71.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 5.457 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.000 | ||||
| t(a) | -0.549 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.708 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.161 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.346 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.086 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.049 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.134 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.019 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.041 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.052 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.017 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.032 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 73.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.954 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.993 | ||||
| Median | 1.002 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.015 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.154 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.980 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.999 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.008 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.041 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.021 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 2.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.027 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.956 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 2.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.027 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.128 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.008 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.017 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.023 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.052 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.021 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.028 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 11.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.005 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.008 | ||||
| Median | 0.015 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.052 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.083 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.006 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.012 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.027 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.077 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.044 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -1.225 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.082 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.083 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.244 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.084 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.095 | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.100 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.081 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.976 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.054 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 1.552 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.038 | ||||
| SD | 0.100 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.380 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.380 | ||||
| df | 1608.000 | ||||
| t | 0.942 | ||||
| p | 0.488 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.411 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.171 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.411 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.171 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.608 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 7.215 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.451 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.413 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.078 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.063 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 749.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 860.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1609.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.261 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.038 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.224 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.100 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.012 | ||||
| r | 0.520 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.232 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.023 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.007 | ||||
| DF error | 1607.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 24.406 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.185 | ||||
| t(a) | -0.652 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.510 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.214 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.251 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.090 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.045 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.164 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.023 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.033 | ||||
| SD | 0.100 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.332 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.332 | ||||
| df | 1608.000 | ||||
| t | 0.823 | ||||
| p | 0.490 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.459 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.123 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.459 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.123 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.523 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 7.085 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.448 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.415 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.077 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.063 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 749.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 860.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1609.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.235 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.033 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.225 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.100 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.012 | ||||
| r | 0.525 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.232 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.021 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.007 | ||||
| DF error | 1607.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 24.712 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.182 | ||||
| t(a) | -0.627 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.510 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.213 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.250 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.089 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.046 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.143 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.021 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.010 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.012 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.004 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.008 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 1609.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.939 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.998 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.002 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.085 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.995 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.999 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.001 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.006 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.003 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 78.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.048 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.987 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 97.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.060 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.015 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.440 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.005 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.011 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.322 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.005 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.008 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 61.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.000 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.002 | ||||
| Median | 0.005 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.017 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.128 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.001 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.003 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.009 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.054 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.015 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 7.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.115 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.086 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.469 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.054 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.117 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.365 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.054 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.100 | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.099 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.080 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.628 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.488 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 6.422 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, LAST 6 MONTHS (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.099 | ||||
| SD | 0.041 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -2.419 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -2.405 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | -1.710 | ||||
| p | 0.574 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -5.202 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.373 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -5.192 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 0.382 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -3.140 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.315 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.136 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.235 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.027 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.032 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 29.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 102.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 1.408 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.099 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.372 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.041 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.003 | ||||
| r | 0.188 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.021 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.128 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.002 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 2.175 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.381 | ||||
| t(a) | -2.186 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.620 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.002 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.040 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.245 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.012 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -4.780 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.128 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.100 | ||||
| SD | 0.041 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -2.440 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -2.426 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | -1.725 | ||||
| p | 0.575 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -5.223 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.352 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -5.213 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 0.361 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -3.158 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.292 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.136 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.236 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.026 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.032 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 29.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 102.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 1.337 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.100 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.366 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.041 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.003 | ||||
| r | 0.191 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.021 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.129 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.002 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 2.207 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.379 | ||||
| t(a) | -2.195 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.620 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.002 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.041 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.244 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.013 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -4.681 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.129 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.005 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.006 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.003 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.005 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.991 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.012 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.997 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.002 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.000 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 31.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.237 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.997 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 29.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.221 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.003 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.415 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.002 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.003 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.233 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.004 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.005 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 2.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.019 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.024 | ||||
| Median | 0.029 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.035 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.040 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.019 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.040 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.011 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.055 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.054 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -1.348 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -1.348 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -9.743 | ||||