Advanced Statistics: Fast Forex
Advanced Statistics module contributed by Jules Ellis, C2 Member. Jules has written a very helpful guide for these statistics. | |||||
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| ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTHLY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.821 | ||||
| SD | 0.558 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.470 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.173 | ||||
| df | 4.000 | ||||
| t | 0.949 | ||||
| p | 0.198 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.800 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.583 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.970 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 4.316 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 72.094 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 75.193 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.856 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.035 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.553 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.011 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 1.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 4.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 5.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.221 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.821 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.164 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.558 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.001 | ||||
| r | 0.007 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.024 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.816 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.416 | ||||
| DF error | 3.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.012 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.495 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.749 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.254 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -6.234 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 6.282 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -2.651 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 4.282 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 34.043 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.816 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.695 | ||||
| SD | 0.477 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.457 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.162 | ||||
| df | 4.000 | ||||
| t | 0.940 | ||||
| p | 0.200 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.810 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.567 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.979 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 4.304 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 61.121 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 64.220 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.730 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.035 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.471 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.011 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 1.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 4.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 5.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.208 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.695 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.164 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.477 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.001 | ||||
| r | 0.017 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.050 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.684 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.303 | ||||
| DF error | 3.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.030 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.489 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.743 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.256 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -5.285 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 5.385 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -2.247 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 3.616 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 13.791 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.684 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.155 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.201 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.005 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.005 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 5.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.360 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.360 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.000 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 1.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.200 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.360 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 0.000 | ||||
| Minimum | NA | ||||
| Quartile 1 | NA | ||||
| Median | NA | ||||
| Quartile 3 | NA | ||||
| Maximum | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | NA | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.000 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.865 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 1.093 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | NA | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | NA | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 5.431 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.807 | ||||
| SD | 0.585 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.379 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.372 | ||||
| df | 152.000 | ||||
| t | 0.920 | ||||
| p | 0.463 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.566 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.320 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.571 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 4.315 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 2.909 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.816 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.613 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.806 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.515 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.277 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 7.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 146.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 153.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.378 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.807 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.198 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.585 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.007 | ||||
| r | -0.063 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.186 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.877 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.343 | ||||
| DF error | 151.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -0.777 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.540 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.994 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.449 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.660 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.288 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.867 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 2.622 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -4.334 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.877 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.648 | ||||
| SD | 0.555 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.168 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.162 | ||||
| df | 152.000 | ||||
| t | 0.779 | ||||
| p | 0.468 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.776 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.108 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.780 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 4.104 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 2.204 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.086 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 1.496 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.848 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.470 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.294 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 7.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 146.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 153.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.359 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.648 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.197 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.555 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.007 | ||||
| r | -0.063 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.178 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.712 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.309 | ||||
| DF error | 151.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -0.781 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.540 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.851 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.456 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.629 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.273 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.942 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 2.366 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -3.634 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.712 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.046 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.058 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.008 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.018 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 153.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.875 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.261 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.991 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.019 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.000 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 4.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.026 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.915 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 7.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.046 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.103 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -1.786 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | -0.153 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 3.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.058 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.087 | ||||
| Median | 0.116 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.131 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.146 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.058 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.116 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.146 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.044 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.810 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.998 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 6.852 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 6.852 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 17.199 | ||||


