Advanced Statistics: Piston
Advanced Statistics module contributed by Jules Ellis, C2 Member. Jules has written a very helpful guide for these statistics. | |||||
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| ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTHLY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.062 | ||||
| SD | 0.158 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.392 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.374 | ||||
| df | 17.000 | ||||
| t | 0.480 | ||||
| p | 0.427 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.219 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.992 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.231 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.980 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.654 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.501 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.237 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.175 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.122 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.095 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 9.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 9.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 18.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.118 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.062 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.111 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.158 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.001 | ||||
| r | 0.076 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.108 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.049 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.026 | ||||
| DF error | 16.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.303 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.462 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.354 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.456 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.647 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.863 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.246 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.345 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.575 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.049 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.050 | ||||
| SD | 0.157 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.319 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.305 | ||||
| df | 17.000 | ||||
| t | 0.391 | ||||
| p | 0.440 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.290 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.918 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.299 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 1.908 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.509 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.334 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.229 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.179 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.117 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.098 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 9.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 9.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 18.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.111 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.050 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.111 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.157 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.001 | ||||
| r | 0.066 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.094 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.040 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.026 | ||||
| DF error | 16.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 0.265 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.467 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.288 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.464 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.655 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.842 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.252 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.331 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.534 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.040 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.068 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.085 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.034 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.063 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 18.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.909 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.981 | ||||
| Median | 1.005 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.029 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.098 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.962 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.990 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.019 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.063 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.047 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 1.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.056 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.909 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.609 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.047 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.122 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 2.584 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.057 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 3.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.002 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.012 | ||||
| Median | 0.022 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.059 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.096 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.002 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.022 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.096 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.047 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.101 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.099 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 1.024 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.024 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 1.157 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.067 | ||||
| SD | 0.138 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.485 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.484 | ||||
| df | 526.000 | ||||
| t | 0.600 | ||||
| p | 0.274 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.099 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 2.068 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.100 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 2.068 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.757 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 7.592 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.669 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.602 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.106 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.088 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 138.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 389.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 527.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.147 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.067 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.149 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.138 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.003 | ||||
| r | 0.147 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.136 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.047 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.019 | ||||
| DF error | 525.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 3.411 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.000 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.424 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.336 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.058 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.214 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.170 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.263 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.491 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.047 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | 0.057 | ||||
| SD | 0.137 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.418 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.417 | ||||
| df | 526.000 | ||||
| t | 0.517 | ||||
| p | 0.303 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.166 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 2.002 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.166 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 2.001 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | 0.643 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 7.446 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.663 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.606 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.104 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.089 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 138.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 389.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 527.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.136 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | 0.057 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.149 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.137 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.003 | ||||
| r | 0.148 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.136 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.039 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.018 | ||||
| DF error | 525.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 3.431 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.000 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.354 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.362 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.058 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.214 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.177 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.254 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.421 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.039 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.012 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.015 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.005 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.011 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 527.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.955 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.999 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.060 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.993 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.008 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.001 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 100.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.190 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.992 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 113.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.214 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.009 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.367 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.004 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.009 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.052 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.007 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.011 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 7.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.011 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.018 | ||||
| Median | 0.028 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.033 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.124 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.014 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.024 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.032 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.079 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.015 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 1.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.143 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.124 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.110 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.107 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.860 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.351 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 7.126 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, LAST 6 MONTHS (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.041 | ||||
| SD | 0.123 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.333 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.331 | ||||
| df | 171.000 | ||||
| t | -0.235 | ||||
| p | 0.511 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -3.104 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 2.440 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -3.103 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 2.441 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -0.450 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 6.357 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.579 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.620 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.082 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.091 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 46.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 126.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 172.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.281 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.041 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.123 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.123 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.003 | ||||
| r | 0.197 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.197 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.096 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.015 | ||||
| DF error | 170.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 2.619 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.402 | ||||
| t(a) | -0.558 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.521 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.048 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.345 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.436 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.244 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.208 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.096 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.048 | ||||
| SD | 0.123 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.393 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.392 | ||||
| df | 171.000 | ||||
| t | -0.278 | ||||
| p | 0.514 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -3.165 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 2.379 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -3.164 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 2.380 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -0.527 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 6.253 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.575 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.624 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.081 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.092 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 46.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 126.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 172.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.273 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.048 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.123 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.123 | ||||
| Covariance | 0.003 | ||||
| r | 0.198 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.198 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.103 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.015 | ||||
| DF error | 170.000 | ||||
| t(b) | 2.632 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.401 | ||||
| t(a) | -0.595 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.523 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.050 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.347 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.443 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.238 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.244 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.103 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.011 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.014 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.005 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.011 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 172.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.964 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.999 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.001 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.035 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.993 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.007 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.002 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 24.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.140 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.989 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 30.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.174 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.009 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.752 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.006 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.025 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.504 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.006 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.016 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 4.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.002 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.009 | ||||
| Median | 0.018 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.050 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.120 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.002 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.011 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.026 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.120 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.041 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 1.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.250 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.120 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.004 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.004 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.037 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -0.037 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -0.323 | ||||


