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EMini Swing and Day

Futures · Started Dec 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.1%
Max Drawdown
33.9%
Trades
1207
Win Trades
54.5%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
28.7%

About this strategy

System from: http://tradingmaestro.com
A full time futures trader and indicator & strategy developer.

Small FAQ at:
http://pvoodooatc2.blogspot.com/2015/02/emini-swing-tm.html

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20146.36.3
201519.92.73.5-0.01.9-0.03.7-6.29.83.16.72.155.9
20167.43.0-12.31.81.00.5-0.61.15.03.12.1-7.72.7
20173.20.73.00.92.11.00.21.8-3.01.7-5.34.210.4
2018-8.2-4.0-0.49.50.00.00.00.70.4-16.423.64.65.2
20191.3-0.22.1-1.44.03.83.53.8-8.5-8.2-1.713.310.4
2020-9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-9.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/15/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age144 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades1207
# Profitable658
% Profitable54.5%
Avg trade duration1.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.9%
drawdown periodAug 31, 2017 - Oct 29, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)6.1%
Avg win$1,073
Avg loss$1,070

Ratios

W:L ratio1.20
Sharpe Ratio0.23
Sortino Ratio0.38
Calmar Ratio0.42

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.19
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life283.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-189.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity17.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss77.5%
Chance of 20% account loss60.5%
Chance of 30% account loss44.5%
Chance of 40% account loss24.5%
Chance of 50% account loss9.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)7.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated98.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,070
Avg Win$1,073
# Winners658
Sum Trade PL (losers)$587,381
Sum Trade PL (winners)$705,976
Num Months Winners41
# Losers549
% Winners54.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table143

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2127.15
Avg Position Time (hrs)35.45
Avg Trade Length1.50
Last Trade Ago2463

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.28
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades—
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats38.99
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats44.24
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades—
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df70
t1.53
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.44
Sortino ratio1.12
Upside Potential Ratio2.51
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms36
N of observations71
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error69
t(b)-0.18
p(b)0.57
t(a)1.52
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.10
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df70
t1.34
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio0.91
Upside Potential Ratio2.28
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms36
N of observations71
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error69
t(b)-0.11
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.31
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.15
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df1561
t1.12
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio0.76
Upside Potential Ratio5.07
Upside part of mean1.02
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms466
N negative terms1096
N of observations1562
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.02
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error1560
t(b)7.72
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.10
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.31
df1561
t0.75
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio4.68
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms466
N negative terms1096
N of observations1562
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error1560
t(b)7.88
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.34
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.34
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6752483158261760
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.02061647665466e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations71
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations1562
Minimum0.83
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.40
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low236
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high250
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-864.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-5.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations44
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-261751056
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)424
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.43
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.42
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.91
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 233 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@YM Z9short1Nov 8, 2019Dec 17, 2019($3,293)
@ES Z9short1Nov 7, 2019Nov 7, 2019$155
@ES Z9long1Nov 7, 2019Nov 7, 2019$355
@ES Z9long1Nov 6, 2019Nov 6, 2019$130
@YM Z9short1Nov 6, 2019Nov 6, 2019($228)
@YM Z9short1Nov 5, 2019Nov 5, 2019$12
XG Z9long2Nov 1, 2019Nov 1, 2019($1,773)
XG Z9short2Oct 31, 2019Oct 31, 2019($4,393)
QCL Z9short2Oct 31, 2019Oct 31, 2019$344
QCL Z9long1Oct 31, 2019Oct 31, 2019($1,188)
XG Z9short2Oct 31, 2019Oct 31, 2019$1,030
XG Z9long2Oct 31, 2019Oct 31, 2019$68
@ES Z9long1Oct 30, 2019Oct 30, 2019$842
@YM Z9long1Oct 30, 2019Oct 30, 2019$622
QCL Z9long3Oct 30, 2019Oct 30, 2019($1,264)
XG Z9long2Oct 30, 2019Oct 30, 2019$485
@ES Z9short1Oct 30, 2019Oct 30, 2019($58)
XG Z9short2Oct 30, 2019Oct 30, 2019$540
XG Z9long2Oct 29, 2019Oct 29, 2019($655)
@ES Z9short1Oct 29, 2019Oct 29, 2019($33)
QCL Z9short1Oct 29, 2019Oct 29, 2019$52
QCL Z9short2Oct 29, 2019Oct 29, 2019$984
@YM Z9short1Oct 29, 2019Oct 29, 2019($193)
XG Z9short2Oct 29, 2019Oct 29, 2019$1,230
@ES Z9long1Oct 28, 2019Oct 28, 2019$17
@YM Z9long1Oct 28, 2019Oct 28, 2019($18)
XG Z9short2Oct 28, 2019Oct 28, 2019($3,443)
QCL Z9short2Oct 28, 2019Oct 28, 2019($76)
XG Z9long2Oct 28, 2019Oct 28, 2019($432)
QCL Z9long2Oct 25, 2019Oct 25, 2019$104

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.