Thank you for taking the time to articulate your reply. You certainly have a valid question/concern; I appreciate the opportunity to respond.
I trade the Optimum Systems methodology outside of C2 where I track the YTD performance by my timing signal. While this is not verified by C2, perhaps it will provide some insight into the general performance of Optimum Systems. At the bottom of this post is the YTD gain breakdown by signal, for 2009. LT=Long Term, BF=Bottom Feeder, TF=Top Feeder.
Analyzing what happened this year, I see I hit a model portfolio high on the signal ending 4/16. At that point, the model portfolio was up 150%, my timer (buying and selling SPY) was up 10%, and S&P (Buy and hold SPY) was down 7%. Since that high, my model portfolio has lost 6%, my timer has lost 12% and the S&P was up 27%. Looking at these numbers, it is clear that my timer has performed very poorly since 4/16, especially when you compare to the S&P gains. While the stock picking part of my methodology has done relatively well throughout the year, it could not overcome the failure of the timer since 4/16 (The timing signals are the basis for the stock picking criteria).
Breaking it down by signal further, I get the following
BFUp: 3 signal, average gain=31%, average duration=9 days.
LTDn: 7 signal, average gain=1%, average duration=9 days.
LTUp: 9 signal, average gain=4%, average duration=23 days.
TFUp: 3 signal, average loss=5%, average duration=14 days.
Looking at the above calculations, it is evident that BF did well where TF did poorly. The problem is that there are too few observations to make a proper conclusion. There have been many times in my testing where TF did well for 6 months and then poorly in the next 6 months. It is the same thing for any of the signals.
My objective is to put the odds in my favor on each trade. I may have a streak of winners or a streak of losers. Over time I expect to meet or exceed my stated goals.
I hope that answers your questions. If, in the future, you would like to subscribe, please write me off-line. I would like to offer you a thank you discount for your contribution to my forum.
P.S. That goes for anyone else that has gotten this far and contributes to my forum. Thank you in advance.
------------ YTD Gain Breakdown -------------
Situation, Trigger Date, End Date,,G/L, YTD G/L