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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | VINCENT LEE |
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| When: | 5/12/06 (21:54) | |
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| | I am in the process of setting up to Autotrade Timac using TB and IB and I was wondering if anyone out there is currently doing it and if you would be willing to share your experience and any helpful hints you might have. I'm very new to Futures and Forex trading and intend to start off using a 10% factor on the number of contracts. Any helpful suggestions would be appreciated from anyone for that matter. Thanks in advance for taking the time to read this and respond.
Vinny |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975 ) |
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| When: | 5/12/06 (23:21) | |
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| | In response to post by VINCENT LEE of 5/12/06 (21:54) I am in the process of setting up to Autotrade Timac using TB and IB and I was wondering if anyone out there is currentl...
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Yes. Resist the tempatation to grow your money as quickly as possible. No matter how much work you do, you will not turn $5,000 into $100,000 within 12 months. The industry feeds on the blood of fresh meat such as yourself. So I tell you (and you may tell me back in a year or two):
RULE #1 is "Preserve your trading capital"
RULE #2 is "Preserve your trading capital"
RULE #3 is "Preserve your trading capital"
RULE#4 - I have been doing this for 10 years plus. What I can basically tell you, is that technical analysis is almost worthless (many will tell you otherwise, but they rarely provide statistically-valid, testable proof). They prefer to remain mystical, dazzling you with cherry picked or falsified testimonials (ever hear how terrible they are from their bad customers?)
Maybe 1% of the advisors you try to follow actually might help you make money over the longterm. I sifted and followed over 600 in my life. Can you afford the subscription fees and tens of thousands of dollars in losses, commissions, silppage, errors and other "education" you are about to get?
It doesn't matter how clever, how accurate, how profitable any of these advisors seem. If you look through some of the LOSING systems, a lot of them had great success for a few months, and then lost everything.
It is amazing how quickly you can lose all of your money. There is a reason they say 95% of futures traders lose their money (usually in the first year). And most of the 5% of those who MAKE money are not following these advisories; they work in the industry.
The fact that you are here on Collective2 is a somewhat hopeful sign. Trust no one. Triple check everything. Trade very small for a few months. Demand proofm track records, You will neither be a futures expert nor rich within 6 months, so instead, learn everything you can about trading, money management, and what separates the few good advisories from the rest. And constantly scout for new advisories because the ones you follow will probably fail in the near future.
Remember my voice. Many of those recent to the industry will tell you what you want to hear, but this is a tough way to make a living. If you do things right, you just might succeed : )
If you are new, then you have no idea how complex this is. I once lost a third of my trading capital due to a broker problem ("my tough luck"). You won't see THAT listed on the standard problems a trader faces |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Randy May |
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| When: | 5/13/06 (9:52) | |
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| | In response to post by VINCENT LEE of 5/12/06 (21:54) I am in the process of setting up to Autotrade Timac using TB and IB and I was wondering if anyone out there is currentl...
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I tried this system trial very briefly using TB and IB, but the first few futures trades did not go through so I didn't continue. I don't know if this was an autotrading problem, or if my IB account doesn't allow certain futures contracts to be traded (crude oil in particular). In any case, if you do set up autotrading make sure yourr IB account allows trading of all the contracts Timac uses (forex is no problem, but other futures might be). |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | VINCENT LEE |
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| When: | 5/13/06 (18:18) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 5/12/06 (23:21) Yes. Resist the tempatation to grow your money as quickly as possible. No matter how much work you do, you will not turn $5,000 into $100,000 within 12 months. The industry feeds on the blood of fresh meat such as yourself. So I tell you (and you may tell me back in a year or two):
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Thanks for the advice. I fully intend to be patient and careful especially as I'm a real novice at this stuff. I've been a stock investor for many years and have done reasonably well with it but I didn't get there by being reckless. I won't start raising my percentage until I am well in profit and even then it will be a gradual rise. If you could suggest some good plain language reading material that would also be helpful. Some of these books I've been reading can put you to sleep in a hurry:-)) |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | VINCENT LEE |
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| When: | 5/13/06 (18:21) | |
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| | In response to post by Randy May of 5/13/06 (9:52) I tried this system trial very briefly using TB and IB, but the first few futures trades did not go through so I didn't ...
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Thanks for the heads up. I'll check that out right away. There is no sense in paying for a subscription that I cannot take full advantage of. |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 5/13/06 (20:05) | |
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| | In response to post by VINCENT LEE of 5/13/06 (18:18) Thanks for the advice. I fully intend to be patient and careful especially as I'm a real novice at this stuff. I've been...
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People will suggest a lot reading materials; the problem is, most of it has little value. People will tell you how much they learned from author X, Y, and Z, but they STILL don't make money!
Start with the educational sections of the futures exchanges. They aren't trying to sell you anything. These sites have a number of brochures about their products and futures trading in general. Stay away from their paid courses
CME.com http://CBOT.com
NYMEX.com http://NYBOT.com
One word of advice I wll give you - most of what people tell you is based on opinion, rather than truth. Here are several things:
1) Margining - an optimum leveraging amount is to use about 1/3 or your account for margin, no more. Beyond that, the risks climb quickly.
2) Get a good, inexpensive futures broker. Tradestation was recently voted the best, in sevreal ways in a major article. If you trade at least 10 futures roundtrips monthly, they give you really powerful
3) Don't bother trying to find your own strategies. Huge amounts are spend by major financial institutions to find small advantages. Spend your time on the back of other people's work. http://Collective2.com, http://Timertrac.com, and Timer http://Digest.com are several places where system providers are held up to the light
4) Combine several successful strategies simultaneously
5) Learn to grill the advisories/systems that interest you - use spreadsheets and analyze the heck out of them. For example, is most of their profits coming form one or two trades? Lucky is not the same as good! Learn to use the industry measures, such as
6) Stay away from buying options except maybe intraday. It only makes it worse (time decay will eat up small advantages). Don't try to make money by selling them either.
I am giving you 10 years of blood sweat and tears in this. Many people will tell you much, but opinion and fact are two very different things. |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | VINCENT LEE |
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| When: | 5/13/06 (22:21) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 5/13/06 (20:05) People will suggest a lot reading materials; the problem is, most of it has little value. People will tell you how much they learned from author X, Y, and Z, but they STILL don't make money!
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Thanks again for your helpful insights. For some reason #2 and #5 got cut off and I was wondering if you could complete those statements for me? |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 5/13/06 (23:47) | |
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| | In response to post by VINCENT LEE of 5/13/06 (22:21) Thanks again for your helpful insights. For some reason #2 and #5 got cut off and I was wondering if you could complete those statements for me?
well, more like I was in a hurry.
#2 powerful trading tools - tradestation is legendary for giving you the ability to all sorts of crunching the numbers and trying out alternative scenarious
#5 - things like Sharpe Ratio, Drawdown, Profit Factor, and Monte Carlo's are very important. If a system cannot be robust in the past, then what chance does it have in the future
As I said, spend your time studying what others do, and really scrutinize the top systems. Go over single one of their past trades, and become familiar with their trading style.
Imagine this scenario - if Timac or any other of these systems were giving you heavy profits, and then there is a story that Israel had bombed the nuclear facilities in Iran and the market went down 20% (and you were long 30 e-minis on a $500 daytrading margin following a hot system - you were only supposed to be in an hour or two, now it is locked limit and you cannot get out), you just got a taste of the power of leveraging. Now you owe approximately $300,000... This happened on Oct 19, 1987 and can easily happen again |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Peter Pritzl ( C2 Score: 85) |
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| When: | 5/14/06 (3:19) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 5/13/06 (20:05) People will suggest a lot reading materials; the problem is, most of it has little value. People will tell you how much they learned from author X, Y, and Z, but they STILL don't make money!
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Ross
A couple great posts, they should be a must read for everybody new to futures and their leverage, framed in a gold frame.
Peter |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 5/14/06 (8:12) | |
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| | In response to post by Peter Pritzl of 5/14/06 (3:19) Ross
A couple great posts, they should be a must read for everybody new to futures and their leverage, framed in a gold frame.
Peter
Thanks
I just wish I could avoid so many typoes. Shows you what happens when someone tries to preach at 11:30pm :)
Few things sadden or irritate me, like a system developer who flaps his wings and crows about how much they know, because they top the popularity charts for a month. They seem impervious to warnings about overleveraging, right until they fall over a cliff.
This reminds me of a 90+ year old stock trader on Wall Street during the 90s bull market, who commented about how these new whiz kids had never seen a real bear market (he had been a trader during the Crash & Depression Years). Then the internet bubble burst.
To me, most of these C2 advisories are the same. They can lose months worth of profit in a week.
I do my own research; you will notice I dont have a "My Analyst" page. Who I follow and why is not something I plan to give away! |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 5/14/06 (18:59) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 5/13/06 (20:05) People will suggest a lot reading materials; the problem is, most of it has little value. People will tell you how much they learned from author X, Y, and Z, but they STILL don't make money!
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"6) Stay away from buying options except maybe intraday. It only makes it worse (time decay will eat up small advantages). Don't try to make money by selling them either. "
I agree with the first sentence and disagree with the second. Buying options is a mug's game unless they are way in the money with almost no time value. Selling options has made me lots of money. I like it because time always works for you. |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 5/14/06 (21:05) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 5/14/06 (18:59) "6) Stay away from buying options except maybe intraday. It only makes it worse (time decay will eat up small advantages). Don't try to make money by selling them either. "
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Most of the research I have seen does not support option writing as a strong money making opportunity on a longterm basis. Things can go well until they fall apart.
The myth of finding "overvalued" or "undervalued" options is definitely one that I love. Gee, Black-Scholes said the price should be this, instead! Look at the fair value!!!! Many people have this strange idea that the market is stupid. In fact, the market is nearly perfect - it represents the votes of millions of large and small buyers and sellers.
Options, and markets in general factor in hundreds of variables and expectations. The market is not tilted towards buyers and sellers. In fact, it is in near perfect balance. There is a price for every liquid commodity or stock that wants to be sold or bought. The market keeps adjusting so every buyer and seller has satisfied their needs of if, the price isn't what they want, they can withdraw their purchasing intentions.
"Gee, heating oil is usually cheap in the fall and goes up in the winter." All I have to do is..." Funny thing is, that heating oil futures that expire in December already have priced this in. I love the books "what the experts don't want you to know." Like, someone will tell you the secrets of the universe for $9.99, and UBS, Bear Stearns, Goldman and others can't buy the same books?
Most people I have seen do this fall for the lure of "80% of options expire worthless" - but from time to time, many naked option writers can lose everything in a sudden market shift. It is amazing how much money, carefully gathered over a few years, can suddenly disappear.
Writing naked options exposes the writers to the full movement of options, but limits the maximum amount they can make to the premium earned, and it usually must be held for a significant amount of time until the greeks work in the writers' favor.
In addition, the option writer still has to pay commissions and slippage to get in and out, like anyone else. Unless you have a successful strategy for timing the market in addition to collecting premium, the overall advantage is not that great.
If you make money, then god bless you. But one or a few indivduals making money for a limited time period, is anecdotal evidence, and not statistical evidence.
And further. option writing is not a proper place for a new person to start. Without understanding delta, vega, theta and other greeks, it is much more complicated than an outright futures or stock position |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Pinnacle Trading ( C2 Score: 73) |
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| When: | 5/14/06 (22:25) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 5/14/06 (21:05) Most of the research I have seen does not support option writing as a strong money making opportunity on a longterm basis. Things can go well until they fall apart....
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Please don't take this the wrong way, but you have no idea on how to structure successful long gamma strategies and do it consistently. You are right though in the fact that a large majority of people who buy options are losers and the reasons are quite simple. Inexperienced traders are greedy, looking to make a fast buck and most importantly have no clue on how to scientifically price them. No, I'm not talking about finding fair value, as it is readily available in all option software. I'm talking about an in-depth scientific pricing that factors in many variables only few have the resources and the will to attain. In addition, trading options successfully requires an intense level of commitment beyond anything many people have ever experienced in their lives. Option writing is for suckers who have been brain washed by "educational materials" put up by brokers for a very obvious reason. I'm sure you know what that reason is, right?
Seriously, not to sound like I'm tooting my own horn or trying to attract attention for subscribers as that is not my style or intention, but truthfully, I'm a living testimony that time decay CAN be beat when you've invested enough time to deeply understand how trade these powerful instruments and “beat the house”. It took me four years, an obsession that is difficult to describe, to get to the level of trading confidence I'm at and it should be no different for anyone in terms of time needed to attain the right experience to perform equally likely and demanding professions.
Regards,
Tarek
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 5/14/06 (23:41) | |
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| | In response to post by Pinnacle Trading of 5/14/06 (22:25) Please don't take this the wrong way, but you have no idea on how to structure successful long gamma strategies and do i...
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Seriously, not to sound like I'm tooting my own horn or trying to attract attention for subscribers as that is not my style or intention, but truthfully, I'm a living testimony that time decay CAN be beat
I examined your Pinnacle track record -- factoring in commissions and realism, your $100,000 starting pot went bust (or worse). This evidence speaks more strongly than your own personal testimony. The success you have had since early October is mostly based on serious overleveraging and maximal compounding. A 7 or 8 month profitable track record is not anywhere approaching the level that I start considering someone to have arrived as a guru. However, at least you are somewhat diversified among different instruments and use some puts along with the calls.
The person who originated the post is interested in futures trading. People who immerse into futures are not looking for 20% per year writing options, as is the likely case. You are correct, that the option houses love to promote the option writing to suckers; the industry is rife with bloodsuckers. |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Lino Lardieri ( C2 Score: 450) |
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| When: | 5/15/06 (0:20) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 5/13/06 (23:47) well, more like I was in a hurry.
#2 powerful trading tools - tradestation is legendary for giving you the ability to all sorts of crunching the numbers and trying out alternative scenarious
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Ross,
I was wondering why you felt it was necessary to 'Put Down' my system in such a way?
Sure you can argue that you where talking about Trading systems in general, but it is clear that by you coming onto a forum which happens to have someone ask about autotrading Timac, clearly signals to me that you are telling subscribers and potential subscribers, that because I have made a lot of money in such a short space of time they should be wary of this type of system.
This statement below, which is in your words:
"Imagine this scenario - if Timac or any other of these systems were giving you heavy profits, and then there is a story that Israel had bombed the nuclear facilities in Iran and the market went down 20% (and you were long 30 e-minis on a $500 daytrading margin following a hot system - you were only supposed to be in an hour or two, now it is locked limit and you cannot get out), you just got a taste of the power of leveraging. Now you owe approximately $300,000... This happened on Oct 19, 1987 and can easily happen again"
suggests that I trade the e-minis.......which I don't. It also only names my system and not any other.
Why did you feel it so necessary to do that on this thread and not start one seperately on the hazards of trading?
Regards
Lino Lardieri
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Pinnacle Trading ( C2 Score: 73) |
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| When: | 5/15/06 (0:51) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 5/14/06 (23:41) Seriously, not to sound like I'm tooting my own horn or trying to attract attention for subscribers as that is not my style or intention, but truthfully, I'm a living testimony that time decay CAN be beat
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First of all, the Realism Index is not realistic enough nor is it constructed properly to be considered as a viable and trustworthy method for deriving appropriate returns and drawdowns when it comes to option traders. Case in point, a recent closed trade in GCI (see closed trade log) received a 100% Realism Factor on 600 contracts, opened and closed at the market. Since the Realism Factor is currently constructed to heavily rely on historical volume among other factors, you would think that this trade should receive a very low value since the average daily volume for options on that stock is around 1100 or so. Now let us take a look at another example that shows the flaws built into that index, looking at the closed log, you will see an option trade on UNH with mere 75 contracts opened and closed, again at the market but received a mere 11.73% when options volume on that trade on average of 93,170. That is 93 times the amount traded for GCI. So tell me now, where is the realism in the Realism Factor??????? Btw, that is just one of many examples that displays the many inaccuracies the RF tends to reflect on many of the closed trades in that log
Ok, now let us go to the second point of your reply. Options are already highly leveraged instruments as it is and there is no need to over-leverage them. There is also nothing wrong with compounding. What you are failing to point out is that the system has radically changed in its engagement of the markets without taking any additional risks and the results are quite reflective.
Going over your 3rd point, 7 to 8 months may not be enough but don’t you think it is 8 months more than your bodacious record??? Please don’t put words in my mouth as I have never implied that I’m a Guru (I really hate this word), but I do beat time decay and no one can argue with that (average holding time as of today is 15.7 days). Let me see you do that champ.
The person who originated this thread was interested in futures, so why pretend that you know about options when your “knowledge” has not been proven yet (other than losing)???
One final note, it is not nice to put down system vendors when Timac and other successful vendors have worked hard to be in the position that they are in and truly deserve. Anyhow, I wish you the best of luck in your trading, and I’m looking forward to see where your system will be in the near future.
Regards,
Tarek
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Lew Payne ( C2 Score: 911) |
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| When: | 5/15/06 (2:53) | |
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| | In response to post by Lino Lardieri of 5/15/06 (0:20) Ross,
I was wondering why you felt it was necessary to 'Put Down' my system in such a way?
Sure you can arg...
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I'm sure glad I've never read any investment book to completion, nor strived to learn from the "masters" of investment, nor listened to much of what anyone else had to say. Had I done so, I might not have figured out how to sell four week stock options to those who want them... and leverage my stock holdings. I also might not have learned how to play effective straddles and "condors"... heck... for most of my life I didn't even know what they were officially called. Oh, and I own "boring" investments also... Fidelity mutual funds, of course. Yea... I'm one of those "market timers." Every few months, I look at some online stats and move my funds around if I feel I need to. Oh, another small comment about options... I buy them (usually calls), as spec plays, usually four days prior to expiration. I'm glad I went against the grain, and started doing what others consider "impossible." |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 5/15/06 (7:28) | |
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| | In response to post by Lino Lardieri of 5/15/06 (0:20) Ross,
I was wondering why you felt it was necessary to 'Put Down' my system in such a way?
Sure you can arg...
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I was wondering why you felt it was necessary to 'Put Down' my system in such a way?
clearly signals to me that you are telling subscribers and potential subscribers, that because I have made a lot of money in such a short space of time they should be wary of this type of system.
Your particular system was not put down in the post; if Timac happened to be the subject, I cannot apologize for this. A new futures trader asked for specific advice, and it was provided. You need to read more carefully.
In fact, I consider Timac one of the several best systems on C2. It uses multiples instruments, has fantastic profitability, and one of the best (total profit / total max drawdown) ratios of any system I examined. |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 5/15/06 (7:46) | |
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| | In response to post by Pinnacle Trading of 5/15/06 (0:51) First of all, the Realism Index is not realistic enough nor is it constructed properly to be considered as a viable and ...
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First of all, the Realism Index is not realistic enough nor is it constructed properly to be considered as a viable and trustworthy method for deriving appropriate returns and drawdowns when it comes to option traders
Sorry, but C2 is about trying to assess systems based on measures. You chose to post your signals using Matthew's service and you need to live by them. This is all readers/subscribershave to go on. Even the Best Case, you twice took your portfolio down by half from $100,000. Or is that also unreliable?
...I have never implied that I’m a Guru (I really hate this word), but I do beat time decay and no one can argue with that (average holding time as of today is 15.7 days).
Again, your track record might be impressive in the end, but your experimentation on the fly also has taken your portfolio down twice dangerously low. And the words I'm a living testimony that time decay CAN be beat when you've invested enough time to deeply understand how trade these powerful instruments and “beat the house”. suggest a belief that you are "a living testimony" and "deeply understand" and able to “beat the house.” The track record does not yet bear this up. It suggest over the short term of 7 to 8, you have performed well. An examinoation of many systems on C2 can show similar strong performance and then collapse. If you continue this for another year, that will evidence some an ability to beat the house.
Going over your 3rd point, 7 to 8 months may not be enough...
Correct. |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Lew Payne ( C2 Score: 911) |
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| When: | 5/15/06 (12:19) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 5/13/06 (23:47) well, more like I was in a hurry.
#2 powerful trading tools - tradestation is legendary for giving you the ability to all sorts of crunching the numbers and trying out alternative scenarious
...
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"Imagine this scenario - [deletia]... Now you owe approximately $300,000... This happened on Oct 19, 1987 and can easily happen again"
Of course, a prudent investor doing a fair and balanced analysis of the risk/reward ratio would also factor in the lost profits from not taking said action versus the lost equity from taking said action. In conclusion, said investor might take steps to limit their exposure [either overall or only] during turbulent times, while still investing in and thus profiting from that e-mini strategy.
There are many other possibilities for said investor, other than "don't do it... you might get wiped out once every 20 years or so." Recognizing those possibilities and acting on them in a prudent manner is what investing is all about. |
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| Subject: | Autotrading Timac |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 5/15/06 (13:57) | |
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| | In response to post by Lew Payne of 5/15/06 (12:19) "Imagine this scenario - [deletia]... Now you owe approximately $300,000... This happened on Oct 19, 1987 and can easily happen again"
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Of course, a prudent investor doing a fair and balanced analysis of the risk/reward ratio would also factor ...
I agree with your post in its entirety!!!!
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