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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Zsolt |
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| When: | 7/17/07 (5:31) | |
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| | I will be subscribing to Big Cat with C2 Autotrading and have a couple of questions. Given that the system does a very high volume of short duration trades, I would think that choice of broker is more important with this system, especially in terms of low commission and fast execution. For autotrading there are only 2 brokers to choose from, Open E Cry and OptionsXpress (not sure what to make of Futuresbetting). OEC doesn’t handle options as far as I can tell. I don’t know exactly how many options trades the system makes, and if this will have a significant impact. OEC seems to charge different commissions on just about every contract, while OX offers a flat rate of $4 per contract. As for execution with Autotrading, I have no idea if one could be better than the other. From the Autotrade data it look like slippage has been a non-issue with whatever broker C2's stats are based on.
Does anyone have an opinion on either of these brokers?
Also, does anyone know if Big Cat tends to favour pit or electronic contracts? If it’s mainly pit, then OE would probably be cheaper.
Thanks
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Zsolt |
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| When: | 7/17/07 (5:57) | |
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| | In response to post by Zsolt of 7/17/07 (5:31) I will be subscribing to Big Cat with C2 Autotrading and have a couple of questions. Given that the system does a very h...
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After a closer look it seems that OX doesnt offer anywhere near the number of contracts as OEC. I may have to get a list from the developer and see if the contracts he trades are all covered. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Science Trader ( C2 Score: 267 ) |
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| When: | 7/17/07 (11:11) | |
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| | In response to post by Zsolt of 7/17/07 (5:31) I will be subscribing to Big Cat with C2 Autotrading and have a couple of questions. Given that the system does a very h...
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I'm interested to hear about your experiences once you've started trading. Looking at the real-life fills, I'm wondering how much profit will be left after slippage. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Zsolt |
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| When: | 7/18/07 (5:31) | |
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| | In response to post by Science Trader of 7/17/07 (11:11) I'm interested to hear about your experiences once you've started trading. Looking at the real-life fills, I'm wondering how much profit will be left after slippage.
Well if C2 data is anything to go by, the slippage is negligible. What is going to hurt are the comms. According to C2, the system is running at 275% pa. Looking at the realism factor with comms, that figure might be more like 200%. Let’s say that’s off by a factor of 2, which makes it 100%. That’s still a terrific trading system. I am more than happy to accept high comm. costs for such a smooth equity curve and low DD.
BTW I posted my initial question to the developer, he seems to have read the post, but as yet I’ve received no reply.
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/18/07 (9:12) | |
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| | In response to post by Zsolt of 7/18/07 (5:31) Well if C2 data is anything to go by, the slippage is negligible. What is going to hurt are the comms. According to C2, the system is running at 275% pa. Looking at the realism factor with comms, that figure might be more like 200%. Let’s say that’s off by a factor of 2, which makes it 100%. That’s still a terrific trading system. I am more than happy to accept high comm. costs for such a smooth equity curve and low DD....
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I strongly suggest you avoid Big Cat. It has a lousy APD (he makes his profits by accepting HUGE average max Drawdowns) and his average profit is low. He also charges a whopping $500 a month.
Instead, I suggest you consider ES Shark instead, which is considerably better on all counts, and trades similar instruments. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Zsolt |
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| When: | 7/18/07 (9:21) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/18/07 (9:12) I strongly suggest you avoid Big Cat. It has a lousy APD (he makes his profits by accepting HUGE average max Drawdowns) and his average profit is low. He also charges a whopping $500 a month....
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A single statistic is no way to evaluate a trading system. I consider many parameters that are important to me. APD is just one of them.
Shark is on my shortlist for possible inclusion at a later date. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/18/07 (9:32) | |
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| | In response to post by Zsolt of 7/18/07 (9:21) A single statistic is no way to evaluate a trading system. I consider many parameters that are important to me. APD is just one of them....
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put it this way; this statistic was put into place to ferret out vendors who game the system. Big Cat only has a smooth equity curve because he refuses to take appropriate losses, and will run up huge drawdowns. This is caked "Hold & Hope". The APD exposes this kind of behavior, whereas the Sharpe does not.
This vendor makes about $10 for every $80 he risks. This basically tells you that he should be avoided. I consider Big Cat one of the worst systems here.
But do what you wish. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/18/07 (22:11) | |
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| | In response to post by Howard Roark of 7/18/07 (22:06) APD is a useless statistic. It is a arbitrary measure and is highly subjective. Use profit factor instead.
Big Cat is another scalping system - dismal P/L per unit - low reliabiility to make a profit. Avoid day trading systems in general - they are waiting to crash some day. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog10-22-04/
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Palsun,
Will you PLEASE stop using fake IDs???????
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/18/07 (22:44) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/18/07 (22:11) Palsun,
Will you PLEASE stop using fake IDs???????
The poor guy doesn't know who he is anymore.
Brian: You do not exist, ergo you do not think! Do you hear? |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/18/07 (23:19) | |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/18/07 (22:44) The poor guy doesn't know who he is anymore.
Brian: You do not exist, ergo you do not think! Do you hear?
And he expects to be taken seriously by others. But, if it quacks like a Palsun... |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Zsolt |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (6:54) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/18/07 (9:32) put it this way; this statistic was put into place to ferret out vendors who game the system. Big Cat only has a smooth equity curve because he refuses to take appropriate losses, and will run up huge drawdowns. This is caked "Hold & Hope". The APD exposes this kind of behavior, whereas the Sharpe does not....
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Ross, there are dangers looking at stats (in particular ratios) in isolation. What you say makes sense, “it’s risky to risk 10x to win x, however there are certain facts that are inescapable. After more than 500 days and over 4000 trades, the system has had a max DD of less than 10% and return of around 180% after comms (system is very comm heavy). So the corollary of what you are saying (ie that the system is fundamentally flawed and probably doomed to failure) is that the system has been EXTREMELY lucky, akin to tossing a coin and coming up heads 900 times out of a 1000. It’s certainly in the realm of possibility, but seems extremely unlikely.
I’m not sure how APD is calculated. After googling it, it seems that it’s a ratio almost unique to C2. Perhaps there is some other terminology for it that is more widespread.
One thing that occurred to me is that if the system employed some kind of spread or hedging strategy to achieve profits then a low APD might be totally justified (eg if you are long pork bellies, short leans hogs). You may suffer huge drawdowns on one contract which are offset by similarly huge gains on another. I don’t know if this situation could ‘fool’ the APD, but I’m assuming that APD is calculated on drawdowns on each position and not net positions. However after having a look at small sample of the trades in Big Cat, I can’t see any obvious hedging.
So it remains a mystery. If the APD indicates that this system is risky, why has it done so consistently well? My only doubts about this system are how well it is going to perform when real world transaction costs are factored in, including C2 autotrading comms. Since nobody has been forthcoming as to how the system has performed for them with autotrading, the only answer may be to test it. I will definitely be legging into this system. The high cost is not of concern to me since these costs must be averaged out across a system portfolio.
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | traderr err ( C2 Score: 41) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (7:20) | |
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| | In response to post by Zsolt of 7/19/07 (6:54) Ross, there are dangers looking at stats (in particular ratios) in isolation. What you say makes sense, “it’s risky to r...
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I would also like to add something that is a bit anoying about APD:
as far as I understand APD, trades which have "n/a" as maximum drawdown are not taken into account for the computation of APD.
Now it turns that most of the cases with "n/a" maximum drawdown are trades which had no drawdown at all because the entry price was "perfectly timed". Such trades would contribute most positively to the APD and unluckily, they are not used.
Please do not misunderstand me: I also use APD as orientation but I am critic enough to have a carefull look at the signle trades to find out all the information by myself.
@Ross: I think I can remember a post of yours, some months old maybe, where you were saying that you watch trading systems for several months before considering subscribing them. This is order to avoid "vulcano" systems. Why are you so enthusiastically recommending ES Shark with its comparatively short track record at C2?
(just to clarify: I like ES Shark myself but your recommendation irritates me a bit considering your previous posts). |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Username ( C2 Score: 269) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (7:45) | |
| Systems: | (26227726), (52547431), (22698817), (22808053), (26281366), (26352273), (31603478), (45779563), (46518146), (47450233), (54347539), (64359398) |
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| | In response to post by traderr err of 7/19/07 (7:20) I would also like to add something that is a bit anoying about APD:
as far as I understand APD, trades which have "n/a" as maximum drawdown are not taken into account for the computation of APD....
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""as far as I understand APD, trades which have "n/a" as maximum drawdown are not taken into account for the computation of APD.
Now it turns that most of the cases with "n/a" maximum drawdown are trades which had no drawdown at all because the entry price was "perfectly timed". Such trades would contribute most positively to the APD and unluckily, they are not used.""
This is a very valid point to which I can also attest. I have two open positions in Broadsword Forex at the moment which had minimal drawdown and are now showing profit of $15k between them, but both have 'no calc' so won't go towards improving the APD which is extremely frustrating. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Randy May |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (9:04) | |
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| | In response to post by Zsolt of 7/19/07 (6:54) Ross, there are dangers looking at stats (in particular ratios) in isolation. What you say makes sense, “it’s risky to r...
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Keep in mind also that the equity curve shown on C2, including realism factor and commission, may not represent even remotely what you will see in a real account. There are plenty of examples/reviews of people trading, fast limit order systems with great C2 equity curves (eg. Extreme-OS, Big Cat) who show a flat or negatively-sloped equity curve in their real trading account. I've learned this from my own experience.
I'd love to see how you do autotrading Big Cat, so please post results. But I don't think you'll see anything close to what C2 shows even including realism and commissions, due to slippage on both ends of the trade. And much of this will come from C2's "autosynch" process converting just-touched limit orders to market orders in your real account. I imagine Shark-ES would have the same problem, or worse, as it picks off fractions of an ES point often in 1-2 minutes between trades. But I"d love to see some real world results posted (far too little of that happens here).
Having said that, there are plenty of systems whose C2 equity curve can be reproduced essentially exactly in a real account (Eternal Return Swing NQ is a popular one in this category, many of the forex systems, and any system that uses market orders and/or trades relatively slowly). Please let us know how you do with Big Cat. |
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| | In response to post by Randy May of 7/19/07 (9:04) Keep in mind also that the equity curve shown on C2, including realism factor and commission, may not represent even remotely what you will see in a real account. There are plenty of examples/reviews of people trading, fast limit order systems with great C2 equity curves (eg. Extreme-OS, Big Cat) who show a flat or negatively-sloped equity curve in their real trading account. I've learned this from my own experience....
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My philosophy used to design this site was to provide complete and total transparency to the user. What that means specifically is that I share almost all data that I have available. So, for example, when AutoTrading data is available, it is posted on the C2 site. You can see actual results -- fill prices, quantity traded, etc. -- whenever the data is available. (Systems for which this data is available show a flashing gray star to the right of the equity chart.)
Finally, while it's true that we do not factor commissions or AutoTrading fees into these numbers, that feature will be coming soon. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Brad Goldman ( C2 Score: 957) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (9:21) | |
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| | In response to post by Randy May of 7/19/07 (9:04) Keep in mind also that the equity curve shown on C2, including realism factor and commission, may not represent even remotely what you will see in a real account. There are plenty of examples/reviews of people trading, fast limit order systems with great C2 equity curves (eg. Extreme-OS, Big Cat) who show a flat or negatively-sloped equity curve in their real trading account. I've learned this from my own experience....
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This is of course the issue. If you are going for less than 1 point on futures or 5 pips on forex, or .40 cents on a stock system, than you will not make money even if C2 shows good statistics. Any system like that will just steal your money. Also, beware of any system that over trades. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Rick Haines ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (9:36) | |
| Systems: | RPH, RPH Revised, RPH2, Conservative Growth, Diversified ETF Timer, Extreme Trader, rydex 500, rydex qqqq, self directed 401 timer, SMA, Target 50 stopped trading 8-28-07, Target 60, Ultimate Trader, UT2, Wave Rider stopped trading on 4/25/08 |
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| | In response to post by Brad Goldman of 7/19/07 (9:21) This is of course the issue. If you are going for less than 1 point on futures or 5 pips on forex, or .40 cents on a st...
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I don't agree with all of that Brad. My signals Target 50 and Wave Rider both make less than .40 and more than 30% yearly. With a 100% realisum factor you can duplicate them exactly. I have never had a money manager make me more than 30% yearly. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Randy May |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (10:00) | |
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| | In response to post by Matthew Klein of 7/19/07 (9:17) My philosophy used to design this site was to provide complete and total transparency to the user. What that means speci...
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My main point was to warn that the assumption that the C2 equity curve for systems like Big Cat and Shark ES represent what to expect in a real trading account, even including the realism and commission option for the plots, may be an expensive one. And the ability to see the autotrading data, while very useful, is also not always the correct picture of what happened in real accounts.
As an example, I'm autotrading Eternal Return Swing NQ at OEC. On 7/10/07 there were two trades, and for the second of these the autotrading data at C2 (trade 27059822) show an exit at 1999.50 with 0.00 slippage. In my real, Gen 2 autotrading, OEC account this order was filled at 2001.00 for slippage of -1.50, or about 21% of the total profit for the trade. So although I don't doubt that one person somewhere may have gotten a fill at 1999.50, a volume weighted average including my fill should show more than 0.00 slippage, even if a large number of autotrading contracts were traded. But the C2 table entry shows 0.00 slippage on this trade.
I also appreciate that the autosynch process is forced to convert limit orders to market orders if someone in the universe gets a fill, and I think this is the biggest source of slippage that isn't represented properly for these types of systems. I'm manually trading the Swing NQ system in my IB account and was filled at 1999.50 for the example above, but only 3-4 minutes after the OEC fill when the market turned back south, and this because I left the limit order as a limit order.
Of course, C2 has no way to know which way the market will go once a fill is reported in any account, so it has no choice but to convert to market to stay in synch. So this process is an unavoidable penalty of autotrading and IMO the largest source of slippage that isn't shown in the equity curves (or often in the autotrading table data as the example above illustrates). |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Rick Haines ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (10:09) | |
| Systems: | RPH, RPH Revised, RPH2, Conservative Growth, Diversified ETF Timer, Extreme Trader, rydex 500, rydex qqqq, self directed 401 timer, SMA, Target 50 stopped trading 8-28-07, Target 60, Ultimate Trader, UT2, Wave Rider stopped trading on 4/25/08 |
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| | In response to post by Randy May of 7/19/07 (10:00) My main point was to warn that the assumption that the C2 equity curve for systems like Big Cat and Shark ES represent what to expect in a real trading account, even including the realism and commission option for the plots, may be an expensive one. And the ability to see the autotrading data, while very useful, is also not always the correct picture of what happened in real accounts....
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Randy you are so right on! Thanks for the insight. I have always wondered why people are here chasing blue sky with impossible trading goals. I find it incredable most people out here are trying to get rich today. Taking huge risk and never getting anywhere. There are systems on C2 that in time can make a person very proud of their return. These systems don't seem to get any attention. |
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| | In response to post by Randy May of 7/19/07 (10:00) My main point was to warn that the assumption that the C2 equity curve for systems like Big Cat and Shark ES represent what to expect in a real trading account, even including the realism and commission option for the plots, may be an expensive one. And the ability to see the autotrading data, while very useful, is also not always the correct picture of what happened in real accounts....
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Actually, Randy: The AutoTrading Fill Data is supposed to include slippage from convert-to-market fills. I'll need to look into why this particular trade did not show up. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Michael Mclaughlin ( C2 Score: 172) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (13:00) | |
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| | In response to post by Matthew Klein of 7/19/07 (10:11) Actually, Randy: The AutoTrading Fill Data is supposed to include slippage from convert-to-market fills. I'll need to look into why this particular trade did not show up.
Question for Matthew Klein:
Does your APD algorithm include any type of factor that measures the size of the account's position's versus the monetary value of the account?
I think APD is a very valuable statistic in regards to judging a system’s risk verses reward potential. My only criticism of the statistic would be that a system that is trading commodities that has a high APD but trades positions that put 20% to 50% of the underlying capitol at risk on every trade should have some sort of penalty factored in to the over all APD. A system like Big Cat that never puts more than .05% of the account capitol at risk per position is a less risky system and should get a bump in APD accordingly.
There are many examples in recent history that would have been disastrous for systems that do not exercise proper money management in regards to over all account size. If you have any real life trading experience you can remember the Carter grain embargo and all of the traders who had large positions long corn and were wiped out because the market went limit down for days and they were unable to close out their long positions. There are may other examples, the stock market crash of 87, The 89 drought “beans in the teens” and market manipulation buy A French firm that tried to corner the market after the drought broke, the hurricanes in the Golf that knocked out the oil platforms, and Sept 11, 2001 just to name a few.
I admit that these events don’t occur often but when they do if you are exposed with a large position on the wrong side of the market you could have 10 years of exceptional returns wiped out over night!
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (13:11) | |
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| | In response to post by Zsolt of 7/19/07 (6:54) Ross, there are dangers looking at stats (in particular ratios) in isolation. What you say makes sense, “it’s risky to r...
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"is that the system has been EXTREMELY lucky, akin to tossing a coin and coming up heads 900 times out of a 1000. It’s certainly in the realm of possibility, but seems extremely unlikely."
Very much the opposite. Anyone can create a system that reproduces the returns of Big Cat:
1) Get in long/short randomly.
2) When it gets a nice profit, close out the trade
3) If it goes against you, hang on and wait til it comes near breakeven or profit. Even if the drawdown is enormous. Occasionally, take a big loss.
4) Every now and then, a 2/27/07 comes along and you get socked. Start another system. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (13:14) | |
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| | In response to post by traderr err of 7/19/07 (7:20) I would also like to add something that is a bit anoying about APD:
as far as I understand APD, trades which have "n/a" as maximum drawdown are not taken into account for the computation of APD....
See entire
"as far as I understand APD, trades which have "n/a" as maximum drawdown are not taken into account for the computation of APD."
Correct - there is no DD number, so cannot really be used.
"Now it turns that most of the cases with "n/a" maximum drawdown are trades which had no drawdown at all because the entry price was "perfectly timed". Such trades would contribute most positively to the APD and unluckily, they are not used. "
I doubt this. And further, there are many times when a value of zero (0) appears in the max DD column. In the absence of evidence, this is not a valid assumption, especially based on anecdotal evidence ("I saw two occurrences where this was true"). |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | traderr err ( C2 Score: 41) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (14:04) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/19/07 (13:14) "as far as I understand APD, trades which have "n/a" as maximum drawdown are not taken into account for the computation of APD."
...
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You doubt it is as I mentioned. I doubt you are right.
I talk about my own experience trading my own system at C2 (w/o much success until now unfortunately) and trading numerous systems that I subscribe to.
Even if you were right. Even if it were mostly as you say. Sometimes, it is definitely as I say, and in those cases (I agree, only on those and maybe they are not many) APD is quite unfair and it does not reflect reality. This is a fact. This does not happen for other statistics parameters which are widely used... Maybe a reason why APD is hardly used anywehere else. Think about it. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (14:50) | |
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| | In response to post by traderr err of 7/19/07 (14:04) You doubt it is as I mentioned. I doubt you are right.
I talk about my own experience trading my own system at C2 (w/o much success until now unfortunately) and trading numerous systems that I subscribe to....
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I have pointed out the possible bias of the N/A data previously (I don't remember where). If there is indeed a tendency that N/A occurs more often in 0 DD's than in other DD's, then that will result in a bias. In that case the concept of APD is still okay, but the calculations must be improved.
It is paramount to sort this out. As of now there is only anecdotical evidence that proves neither one nor the other position.
I believe that many recent trades have N/A in their DD column, but this will change over time. So I think these should be discarded in the discussion. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | traderr err ( C2 Score: 41) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (15:06) | |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/19/07 (14:50) I have pointed out the possible bias of the N/A data previously (I don't remember where). If there is indeed a tendency that N/A occurs more often in 0 DD's than in other DD's, then that will result in a bias. In that case the concept of APD is still okay, but the calculations must be improved....
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Jules,
thanks for the comment and for offering the perspective of improving the computation of APD at C2.
All I was trying to express with my answer to Ross is that the strict value of APD as a quality measure of trading systems at C2 should be is not given; it can be however valuable orientative information (I use it heavily here).
As the Mathematician that I am, I can not accept as "absolute truth" and basis for disregarding a trading system and praise another one the value of a statistical parameter that so heavily depends on how C2 works. Statistical parameters in a mathematical sense should always be the same and not dependent on a platform working better or worse.
Furthermore, your statement that
"If there is indeed a tendency that N/A occurs more often in 0 DD's than in other DD's, then that will result in a bias"
is certainly true but not the full problem. The problem goes beyond because it is not only about how many of each event occur (N/A in 0 DDs and in other), but about the magnitude of the DD when it is not acctually accounted for.
In summary: I think that APD can be a great parameter but its strict use can only be regarded as reflecting reality once the "n/a" issue has been solved. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Science Trader ( C2 Score: 267) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (15:37) | |
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| | In response to post by Matthew Klein of 7/19/07 (9:17) My philosophy used to design this site was to provide complete and total transparency to the user. What that means speci...
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Matthew,
It would be helpful not only showing the average slippage, but also the min and max slippage for each trade. From various posts on the extreme-os forum it is clear that subscribers experience a wide variety in slippage and that the average tells only part of the story. It would also be helpful to see a break-down by "generation 1" and "generation 2". |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/19/07 (17:41) | |
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| | In response to post by traderr err of 7/19/07 (15:06) Jules,
thanks for the comment and for offering the perspective of improving the computation of APD at C2.
All I was trying to express with my answer to Ross is that the strict value of APD as a quality measure of trading systems at C2 should be is not given; it can be however valuable orientative information (I use it heavily here)....
See entire
"As the Mathematician that I am"
I have a master's in computer science and bachelor's in biology from very good schools and have quite solid grasps of both mathematic and scientific disciplines, and I do not see anything particularly valid in your arguments.
Further, the fact that you point to two trades as any kind of evidence of the problem of dismisses you as someone who grasps the concept of statistical validity. Two data points is called "irrelevant" and "meaningless." It is anecdotal and no statistician would take you seriously. In fact, you would be laughed out of their office. Sorry.
So therefore, the n/a is not an issue that needs to be addressed. This is called a "limitation." C2 does not supply this data, thus APD cannot use it. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (0:25) | |
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| | In response to post by traderr err of 7/19/07 (15:06) Jules,
thanks for the comment and for offering the perspective of improving the computation of APD at C2.
All I was trying to express with my answer to Ross is that the strict value of APD as a quality measure of trading systems at C2 should be is not given; it can be however valuable orientative information (I use it heavily here)....
See entire
It was not my intention to say that the APD should be regarded as the only statistic in selecting a system.
"The problem goes beyond because it is not only about how many of each event occur (N/A in 0 DDs and in other), but about the magnitude of the DD when it is not acctually accounted for."
Yes. It was not my claim to be complete there. In addition to what you say, there is also a problem if the N/A's are related to the size of the profit (e.g. more N/A's when the profit is large) because both the DD and the return of the trade are discarded if the DD is N/A.
In summary, I think that the N/A's should be statistically independent of both the DD's and the returns. That may be hard to prove, particularly for the DD's. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (1:02) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/19/07 (17:41) "As the Mathematician that I am"
I have a master's in computer science and bachelor's in biology from very good schools and have quite solid grasps of both mathematic and scientific disciplines, and I do not see anything particularly valid in your arguments....
See entire
"So therefore, the n/a is not an issue that needs to be addressed. This is called a "limitation." C2 does not supply this data, thus APD cannot use it."
Sorry, although I sincerely appreciate the APD, I do not agree with this. The impact of missing data is a serious field in statistics, and no statistician will say that it is not an issue that needs to be addressed.
In a theoretical definition there are no N/A's and then the APD is fine. But in the practical application at C2 there are N/A's and then the estimation may be biased. This must be addressed. You can't say "I don't know how large the impact is and therefore I believe the impact is 0". |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | traderr err ( C2 Score: 41) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (3:44) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/19/07 (17:41) "As the Mathematician that I am"
I have a master's in computer science and bachelor's in biology from very good schools and have quite solid grasps of both mathematic and scientific disciplines, and I do not see anything particularly valid in your arguments....
See entire
@Ross,
I know very well the effect of what you unorthodoxly called "irrelevant" and "meaningless." In statistics, data points which apparently seem to be errors and may be eliminated from the evaluation are called "outliers". However, I was not talking about a couple of outliers. Jules, for instance, got what I meant and the discussion with him was target oriented and productive. I am happy of finding such interlocutors hee at C2.
You dare using the most contemptuous language towards me on the basis of a mistake of yours: I was not the one person mentioning two single outliers; I was talking about a significant number of cases that I have found over the months trading with C2 systems. Read above and see yourself. I may recommend you to mind your language and to consider an apology.
I must confess that sometimes I do not understand you. At times you can bring objective and well thought arguments and I read them with great interest and, partly, learn from your statements. At times however, you have a certain tendency to make a fool out of yourself, mix things up and at the end, you are not able to stop saying nonesense, to apologise and to admit that you made a mistake or you misunderstood something (sorry for this personal attack but I can not avoid a bit of arrogance from my side at this point. I really apologise because I can not help it).
Finally, when somebody that can count zeros and ones (admitedly, at a speed of many tens of millions per second) and knows how to use statistics to compute the number of, let us say, ants or rats that die by accident or of natural death, tries to tell me that
"In fact, you would be laughed out of their office. Sorry."
on the basis of my statements in this thread, then this person makes himself more stupid than he really is, suffers from loss of reality perception or, to express it mildly, we simply have an unsolvable "kognitive Disonanz" caused by two different levels of intellectuality.
Again, I do not understand your attack. I was just putting arguments on the table that support my opinion; which you may not necessarily share. From my point of view, I did it objectively, politely and respectfully; what can not be said about your statement (I must admit, neither about this post of mine).
I am aware that this is a forum and that we do not need to maintain the formalisms common to other kinds of written communication. However, in my opinion that does not justify your proceeds, and respect for the other's opinion and of her/him as a person, are the minimums to maintain.
Maybe I am just a bit old fashioned... because I was born and live in "old Europe".
bye Ross |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Michael Mclaughlin ( C2 Score: 172) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (9:55) | |
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| | In response to post by Howard Roark of 7/20/07 (7:52) What did you expect from a typical evader (Ross)? Finally Jules is seeing the light of his blunder (I know he is capable of seeing it ultimately)...but Ross is yet to see, because he is an epistemological parasite.......
See entire
Wow!
Can I borrow your aberration of evasion theory for my Nephews?
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (10:00) | |
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| | In response to post by Howard Roark of 7/20/07 (7:52) What did you expect from a typical evader (Ross)? Finally Jules is seeing the light of his blunder (I know he is capable of seeing it ultimately)...but Ross is yet to see, because he is an epistemological parasite.......
See entire
>To an evader, a feeling of some kind is more important than the truth. A man finds a certain fact or policy to be unpleasant, frightening, or guilt-provoking. Reality to the contrary notwithstanding, he does not want the fact to be real or the policy to be necessary; so he decides to blank out the offending datum.
> The process of evasion, is profoundly destructive. Epistemologically, it invalidates a mental process. Morally, it is the essence of evil. Evasion is the vice that underlies all other vices. At C2, it is leading to the collapse of this site.
Duh... I'm not sure what you mean. Like when someone posts under multiple aliases. Is that like evasion? |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (10:21) | |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/20/07 (1:02) "So therefore, the n/a is not an issue that needs to be addressed. This is called a "limitation." C2 does not supply this data, thus APD cannot use it."
...
See entire
"Sorry, although I sincerely appreciate the APD, I do not agree with this. The impact of missing data is a serious field in statistics, and no statistician will say that it is not an issue that needs to be addressed. "
The point is. that if C2 cannot generate the max DDs for some trades, then this is a limitation, and APD must ignore these trades.
The fact the trades are ignored is the same limitation for all systems, and the APD can still be used to analyze one or compare multiple systems.
On a side note: That the ignored trades follow a pattern such as they are more likely to be zero DD has not been proven, only suggested. The 2 trade example of Jose do not prove anything, as this is anecdotal only. There are plenty if max DD trades with zero value that DO appear. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | traderr err ( C2 Score: 41) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (10:24) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/20/07 (10:21) "Sorry, although I sincerely appreciate the APD, I do not agree with this. The impact of missing data is a serious field in statistics, and no statistician will say that it is not an issue that needs to be addressed. "
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Ross,
with all my respect: I do not really know why you continue riding on the statement that I have given two examples. It is just not true and I kindly request you to stop trying to put words in my keyboards that I did not typed. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (11:12) | |
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| | In response to post by Science Trader of 7/19/07 (15:37) Matthew,
It would be helpful not only showing the average slippage, but also the min and max slippage for each trade...
See entire
ST, why would the min and max slippage be important? I think that the average slippage is enough to estimate the long run performance.
A more essential lack in the data is, imho, the trades that were totally missed because of autotrade problems. What we would need is for each trade the percentage of autotraders that were filled from those who have given the system autotrade permission in their setup. E.g. if at the time of the trade the system has 50 subscribers who gave the system autotrade permission in their setup page, and 30 fills are received by C2, then the percentage filled is 30/50 = .60 = 60%.
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (11:35) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/20/07 (10:21) "Sorry, although I sincerely appreciate the APD, I do not agree with this. The impact of missing data is a serious field in statistics, and no statistician will say that it is not an issue that needs to be addressed. "
...
See entire
APD is not immune to improvement. I have this suggestion.
Currently the formula is:
APD = Total of returns of trades that do not have N/A in their DD column / Total of DD's of trades that do not have N/A in their DD column.
Suppose there are N1 of such trades, then you can divide both numerator and denominator by N1 to obtain
APD = Mean of returns that do not have N/A in their DD column / Mean of DDs of trades that do not have N/A in their DD column.
This is exactly the same, just written differently. But in this formulation, the numerator can be seen as an estimate of the expected return per trade, and the denominator as an estimate of the expected max DD per trade. Although it is impossible to use trades with N/A for the denominator, there is no problem to use for the numerator. So I suggest
new APD = Mean of *all* returns / Mean of DDs of trades that do not have N/A in their DD column.
The advantage of this is that more of the available data are used.
Your implicit assumption so far was that the N/A's are statistically independent of the returns. If you are right in this assumption, then the new APD will have the same outcome as the old APD, so then there is no reason to be against it. If you're wrong then the new APD has less bias than the old APD. So this is always an improvement.
Secondly, to deal with the possibility that N/A's are actually 0, I suggest to display an upper bound of the APD by replacing every N/A with 0:
upper bound of new APD = mean return of all trades / mean DD of all trades, with N/A replaced by 0.
If the new APD and the upper bound of the new APD are close together, e.g. 0.70 and 0.72 then you know that the N/A's didn't have a large impact. But if there is a large difference, e.g. new APD = 0.30 and upper bound of new APD = 0.80, then you know that the value of APD is suspect because it is heavily affected by unknown DDs. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | traderr err ( C2 Score: 41) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (11:38) | |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/20/07 (11:35) APD is not immune to improvement. I have this suggestion.
Currently the formula is:
APD = Total of returns of trades that do not have N/A in their DD column / Total of DD's of trades that do not have N/A in their DD column....
See entire
Jules,
at first sight, your proposal looks sensitive and a good expansion of the original APD definition to me.
Thank you for proposing it. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (12:04) | |
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| | In response to post by traderr err of 7/20/07 (10:24) Ross,
with all my respect: I do not really know why you continue riding on the statement that I have given two ...
See entire
The observation judging performance based on 2 trades was from Jon, not Jose. It was a long thread, and this was my error.
I just consider it irritating when people add in their credentials to a post when it is not necessary. "Being the mathematician that I am."
People should just post their best thoughts. Accenting it with our personal resume (especially when not verifiable) is annoying. The recent posts of Mr. GA about his astounding performances on his Kingdom website, and how quickly he will rise to the top, and having an "institute", and calling himself a "hedge fund manager", when he then falls flat on his face upon independent tracking just illustrates this. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (12:20) | |
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| | In response to post by Username of 7/19/07 (7:45) ""as far as I understand APD, trades which have "n/a" as maximum drawdown are not taken into account for the computation of APD....
See entire
> This is a very valid point to which I can also attest. I have two open positions in Broadsword Forex at the moment which had minimal drawdown and are now showing profit of $15k between them, but both have 'no calc' so won't go towards improving the APD which is extremely frustrating.
Understood, and I agree, but just as common (browsing your systems) are losing trades that have "no calc" (one at least of $8K+) that I assume doesn't hurt your APD, right?
As long as the APD is applied exactly the same way to all systems these quirks even out over time. What I would like to see are common stats like:
Average Margin as Percent of Equity
Downside Deviation
Net Profit as % of largest DD
P/L per unit corrected (right now
winning systems can have negative
P/L per unit, losing systems can have
positive P/L per unit, and forex doesn't
have ANY P/L per unit. This is an easy
one: Net Profit/ total units traded= P/L unit).
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Howard Roark |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (12:25) | |
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| | In response to post by traderr err of 7/20/07 (11:38) Jules,
at first sight, your proposal looks sensitive and a good expansion of the original APD definition to me.
Thank you for proposing it.
You can expand as much as you want, still does not change the fact that when retracing the essential logical structure of APD, it does not lead to a direct contact with reality which is the data of sense (because the data does not exist). Man's only direct contact with reality is the data of sense. These, therefore are the standard of objectivity, to which all the other cognitive material must be brought back. If there is no link to perceptual reality - you can then recognize any egregious misuse. You can thus guard the clarity - the identity - of the concept in your own mind.
Therefore, the antidote to egregious misuse of concepts is the process of reduction. In regard to higher-level concepts, reduction completes the job of definition. The purpose of a definition is to keep a concept connected to a specific group of concretes. The definition of a higher-level concept, however, counts on the relevant lower-loevel concepts, which must themselves be connected to concretes; otherwise the definition is useless. Reduction is what takes a person from the initial definition through the definitions of the next lower level and then of the next, until he reaches the direct perception of reality. This is the only means by which the initial definition can be made fully clear. APD is actually a pseudo-concept. Pseudo-concepts cannot be reduced to observational data. This is the proof that such concepts are invalid. Invalid concepts are words that represent attempts to integrate errors, contradictions, or false propositions - or words without specific definitions, without referents, which can mean anything to anyone. Any such term is detached from reality and invalidates every proposition or process of thought in which it is used as a cognitive assertion.
The test of an invalid concept is the fact that it cannot be reduced to the perceptual level. This means that nothing in reality gives rise to the concept. The test is not that the referent is unobservable. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Rick Haines ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (12:30) | |
| Systems: | RPH, RPH Revised, RPH2, Conservative Growth, Diversified ETF Timer, Extreme Trader, rydex 500, rydex qqqq, self directed 401 timer, SMA, Target 50 stopped trading 8-28-07, Target 60, Ultimate Trader, UT2, Wave Rider stopped trading on 4/25/08 |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/19/07 (17:41) "As the Mathematician that I am"
I have a master's in computer science and bachelor's in biology from very good schools and have quite solid grasps of both mathematic and scientific disciplines, and I do not see anything particularly valid in your arguments....
See entire
"As the Mathematician that I am"
I have a master's in computer science and bachelor's in biology
Hey Ross. A rectal thermator has a lot of degrees. You know what you can do with that! |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Howard Roark |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (12:32) | |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 7/20/07 (12:30) "As the Mathematician that I am"
I have a master's in computer science and bachelor's in biology
...
See entire
You mean a 'rectal thermometer'. LOL. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Howard Roark |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (12:41) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 7/20/07 (12:20) > This is a very valid point to which I can also attest. I have two open positions in Broadsword Forex at the moment which had minimal drawdown and are now showing profit of $15k between them, but both have 'no calc' so won't go towards improving the APD which is extremely frustrating....
See entire
>As long as the APD is applied exactly the same way to all systems these quirks even out over time
Another typical evader... |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (13:27) | |
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| | In response to post by Howard Roark of 7/20/07 (12:32) You mean a 'rectal thermometer'. LOL.
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (13:39) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 7/20/07 (12:20) > This is a very valid point to which I can also attest. I have two open positions in Broadsword Forex at the moment which had minimal drawdown and are now showing profit of $15k between them, but both have 'no calc' so won't go towards improving the APD which is extremely frustrating....
See entire
"As long as the APD is applied exactly the same way to all systems these quirks even out over time."
That is true if the n/a's occur randomly, but not necessarily otherwise. As the APD gains importance (more and more people are using it) it is reasonable to regard this assumption more sceptically and to demand some form of proof or justification for this assumption, or to apply a correction if it isn't true.
One justification can be theoretical, if we get insight in the processes that cause the n/a's, and if it is reasonable that this is independent of the trade characteristics. An empirical justification would be if we compute the APD and the "upper bound of the new APD" (say, UBAPD) for a large number of systems and the rank order based on APD is almost the same as the rank order based on UBAPD.
PS.
- Downside deviation is in the advanced statistics, under Statistics related to the Sortino ratio. It is listed as Downside SD. Or do you mean something else?
- Net Profit as % of largest DD: Don't you want that annualized? The annualized version is listed in the advanced statistics as Calmar ratio. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (13:56) | |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 7/20/07 (12:30) "As the Mathematician that I am"
I have a master's in computer science and bachelor's in biology
...
See entire
"rectal thermator"
It is sad when the foolish try to be clever... |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Username ( C2 Score: 269) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (14:00) | |
| Systems: | (26227726), (52547431), (22698817), (22808053), (26281366), (26352273), (31603478), (45779563), (46518146), (47450233), (54347539), (64359398) |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 7/20/07 (12:20) > This is a very valid point to which I can also attest. I have two open positions in Broadsword Forex at the moment which had minimal drawdown and are now showing profit of $15k between them, but both have 'no calc' so won't go towards improving the APD which is extremely frustrating....
See entire
"Understood, and I agree, but just as common (browsing your systems) are losing trades that have "no calc" (one at least of $8K+) that I assume doesn't hurt your APD, right?"
Not necessarily. Remember you cannot see my open positions. I have 16 'no calcs' across all my systems, 7 winners and 9 losers, but net net they win $4k, and the winners are invariably ones where the final profit is greater than the max drawdown, and the losers are often stopped out so therefore the final loss is the same as the max drawdown, so overall it DOES hurt my APD.
I thought the whole point of APD was to highlight systems that hang on to losers in the hope they turn around and to expose systems that have trades that go heavily into the red but close out at a tiny profit just to maintain a high win %. Such systems would also have tiny avergae winners and huge avg losers. You can easily see from my systems that is not what I do, I am mostly about low win % and avg winners being twice avg losers, but my APD would suggest otherwise, that's why I find it frustrating, but as I've said elsewhere, I welcome what it is trying to do but feel it could be applied better. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (14:06) | |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/20/07 (13:39) "As long as the APD is applied exactly the same way to all systems these quirks even out over time."
That is true if the n/a's occur randomly, but not necessarily otherwise. As the APD gains importance (more and more people are using it) it is reasonable to regard this assumption more sceptically and to demand some form of proof or justification for this assumption, or to apply a correction if it isn't true....
See entire
> That is true if the n/a's occur randomly, but not necessarily otherwise.
I sure haven't done a detailed study, but for every system I browsed for my post there were as many or more downside n/a's as upsides.
> As the APD gains importance (more and more people are using it) it is reasonable to regard this assumption more sceptically and to demand some form of proof or justification for this assumption, or to apply a correction if it isn't true.
I agree. I suspect systems that use short term stops as entries
would see a higher proportional number of n/a's on winning trades than
say systems that use limit entries (by definition the market is heading in the direction of the stop entry and has to come back to draw down, while the reverse is true on the limit entry).
>PS.
>- Downside deviation is in the advanced statistics, under Statistics related to the Sortino ratio. It is listed as Downside SD. Or do you mean something else?
>- Net Profit as % of largest DD: Don't you want that annualized? The annualized version is listed in the advanced statistics as Calmar ratio.
While I very much appreciate the work that went into the advanced stats I have to admit I rarely crack them open. They make a normal CTA report look like child's play.
>- Downside deviation is in the advanced statistics, under Statistics related to the Sortino ratio. It is listed as Downside SD. Or do you mean something else?
I guess?
>- Net Profit as % of largest DD: Don't you want that annualized?
No.
Sorry...I'm just a trader. Not so many advanced degrees here.
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (14:55) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 7/20/07 (14:06) > That is true if the n/a's occur randomly, but not necessarily otherwise.
I sure haven't done a detailed study, but for every system I browsed for my post there were as many or more downside n/a's as upsides....
See entire
I must confess that right now I'm too lazy to conduct the test that I suggested :-). My impression too is that the n/a problem isn't very big, but impression isn't proof. I believe the best solution would be if the UBAPD was implemented so we can see it for ourselves at each system.
Wrt the advanced statistics: That's what statistics programs do: You ask a simple average and then you also get a ton of other things that you didn't ask for :-). Probably I can add Net profit / max DD in a next version.
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | traderr err ( C2 Score: 41) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (19:17) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/20/07 (12:04) The observation judging performance based on 2 trades was from Jon, not Jose. It was a long thread, and this was my error.
...
See entire
Ross,
in some way I can understand that you get irritated by other people adding their credentials in. It is not my case, but I can imagine that it can irritate.
I would just like to clarify whenn adding the "Being the mathematician that I am" I was actually formulating it as an excuse for the case that my statement could be considered too formalistic, constraint and somehow "square headed". Maybe I should have chosen a different formulation. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Howard Roark |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (20:07) | |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/20/07 (0:25) It was not my intention to say that the APD should be regarded as the only statistic in selecting a system.
"The problem goes beyond because it is not only about how many of each event occur (N/A in 0 DDs and in other), but about the magnitude of the DD when it is not acctually accounted for."
...
See entire
>That may be hard to prove, particularly for the DD's.
There is nothing to prove here. Since all the DDs at C2 are bogus, any statistic based on it is also bogus.
Reduction is necessary in regard to all higher-level content. It applies not only to concepts, but also to propositions.
Propositions too (if nonaxiomatic) must be brought back step by step to the perceptual level. They too are based on antecedent cognitions - on the chain of evidence that led to them - going back ultimately to direct observation. To a mind that does not grasp this chain, a higher-level proposition is arbitrary, noncontextual, nonobjective; it is detached from reality and from the requirements of human cognition. This is why proof of an idea is necessary.
Proof is a form of reduction. The conclusion to be proved is a higher-level cognition, whose link to reality lies in the premises; these in turn eventually lead back to the perceptual level. Proof is thus a form of retracing the hierarchical steps of the learning process. (As with conceptual reduction, so with proof: the process identifies not the optional variants, but the essential links in the chain, the necessary logical structure relating a mental content to observational data.)
Proof is not a process of deriving a conclusion from arbitrary premises or even from arbitrarily selected true premises. Proof is the process of establishing a conclusion by identifying the proper hierarchy of premises. In proving a conclusion, one traces backward the order of logical dependence, terminating with the perceptually given. It is only because of this requirement that logic is the means of validating a conclusion objectively. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (21:15) | |
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| | In response to post by Howard Roark of 7/20/07 (20:07) >That may be hard to prove, particularly for the DD's.
There is nothing to prove here. Since all the DDs at C2 are bogus, any statistic based on it is also bogus....
See entire
Posted by: Neil Boyd
Date: 7/20/2007
>That may be hard to prove, particularly for the DD's.
> There is nothing to prove here. Since all the DDs at C2 are bogus, any statistic based on it is also bogus.
You are bogus. You, "Neil Boyd", don't exist. Therefor you are not.
Oh, if this is true, that Palsum guy is the ultimate idiot! He keeps
paying for new C2 systems! What a fool! Right Neil? ;-) |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (21:28) | |
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| | In response to post by traderr err of 7/20/07 (19:17) Ross,
in some way I can understand that you get irritated by other people adding their credentials in. It is not my case, but I can imagine that it can irritate....
See entire
no problema.
There are good traders here, there are clueless people here, there are hucksters here, and there are others from different walks of life.
All we really seek, are honest people who don't come in like they are God's gift to man, who like to discuss the issues, and raise all of our boats. For those who are new, it is a pleasure to assist in any way possible. For those with a good system, we will all be interested.
I am the first to admit I can get pissed off. It is the "look at me" or "gee, look at all these clueless C2 vendors, I will make 2 ES points a day" types who really set me off. And I don't usually go away as long as the attitude remains.
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Username ( C2 Score: 269) |
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| When: | 7/20/07 (21:56) | |
| Systems: | (26227726), (52547431), (22698817), (22808053), (26281366), (26352273), (31603478), (45779563), (46518146), (47450233), (54347539), (64359398) |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/20/07 (12:04) The observation judging performance based on 2 trades was from Jon, not Jose. It was a long thread, and this was my error.
...
See entire
If you're referring to my post earlier I was merely saying that I sympathised with his line of reasoning as I currently have 2 open positions which are no calc which would significantly improve my APD, I was NOT saying 'I saw 2 examples of this therefore it is true' and in fact I detail 16 instances I have across all my systems in another thread. I was merely using my current two open positions in one system as an example to share his frustration at APD stats. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Howard Roark |
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| When: | 7/21/07 (5:38) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/20/07 (21:28) no problema.
There are good traders here, there are clueless people here, there are hucksters here, and there are others from different walks of life....
See entire
Evil (irrational) men like Ross have one power. It has not the power to create (observe: he is yet to offer a good system to trade at C2), to set positive goals and achieve them, but the power to destroy: to destroy itself and its victims (subscribers, system vendors and ultimately C2).
The irrational man is inevitably tortured. To him, failure means suffering - and so does success. Success of his kind (at blanking out reality -evading) is a threat, attainment brings anxiety, desire is guilt, self-esteem is self-loathing, pleasure is laced with hangover, joy is overcome by pain. Whatever the name of such a state, it is not "happiness."
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/21/07 (14:56) | |
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| | In response to post by Howard Roark of 7/21/07 (5:38) Evil (irrational) men like Ross have one power. It has not the power to create (observe: he is yet to offer a good system to trade at C2), to set positive goals and achieve them, but the power to destroy: to destroy itself and its victims (subscribers, system vendors and ultimately C2)....
See entire
well, Sir Palsun Cerebellus Minimus
Since you cannot delete our replies on this forum
Witless (clueless) viral infections like Palsun are enfeebled thus: they have the ability to morph and change their identities, since the broad spectrum of mankind recognizes that they have nothing to say, though they spin many words.
The idiot is after all things useless. To it, failure is his lifestyle and helpless vanity is his robe. Success is but a humorous thought for the jester, as he falls once again on his face, after an attempt to juggle one thought shorted out one of the 2 remaining neurons... |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Howard Roark |
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| When: | 7/21/07 (16:56) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/21/07 (14:56) well, Sir Palsun Cerebellus Minimus
Since you cannot delete our replies on this forum
Witless (clueless) viral infections like Palsun are enfeebled thus: they have the ability to morph and change their identities, since the broad spectrum of mankind recognizes that they have nothing to say, though they spin many words....
See entire
Evil men like Ross and Sam, taken pure, i.e., deprived of any assistance from the principle of virtue, are not the flamboyant value-achievers (observe both these men are yet to create a successful system) of our cultural mythology. They are non-achievers, ignorant, impoverished, frustrated, resentful, and helpless, helpless to do anything about their condition. They are helpless by their own choice. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/21/07 (20:38) | |
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| | In response to post by Howard Roark of 7/21/07 (16:56) Evil men like Ross and Sam, taken pure, i.e., deprived of any assistance from the principle of virtue, are not the flamb...
See entire
Nut cases like Palsun with multiple AKAs are not worth the effort |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 976) |
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| When: | 7/22/07 (9:06) | |
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| | In response to post by Howard Roark of 7/22/07 (4:46) The primary vice that governs these men (Ross, Sam et. al.,), which is the root of all other human evils is: irrational...
See entire
Multi-Alias Nut Case - avoid |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Howard Roark |
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| When: | 7/22/07 (16:40) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 7/22/07 (9:06) Multi-Alias Nut Case - avoid
Parasitic-Evader bordering on criminal case - No cure for this. So, avoid. |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/22/07 (20:05) | |
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| | In response to post by Howard Roark of 7/21/07 (16:56) Evil men like Ross and Sam, taken pure, i.e., deprived of any assistance from the principle of virtue, are not the flamb...
See entire
> Evil men like Ross and Sam, taken pure, i.e., deprived of any assistance from the principle of virtue, are not the flamboyant value-achievers ....
I hope you enjoyed your weekend. Do you always spend the whole weekend dumping on strangers you've never met?
> (observe both these men are yet to create a successful system) of our cultural mythology.
> Posted by: Neil Boyd
I don't see any systems by "Neil Boyd". Obviously "Neil Boyd" is just
as "deprived of any virtue" as Sam and Ross.
Or are you actually the deceiving evading liar known as Palsun? Of course he only has unsuccessful systems after 14 tries on C2.
>They are non-achievers, ignorant, impoverished, frustrated, resentful, and helpless, helpless to do anything about their condition. They are helpless by their own choice.
Amazingly he quotes the philosophy of Ayn Rand, yet Pal doesn't
take responsibility for his own pathetic performance. He blames his problems and horrendous draw downs on MK and C2. Ayn Rand would
be nauseated that the weakling Palsun uses her words and claims to
to live by her philosophy.
And again, "Neil Boyd" is as "ignorant, impoverished, frustrated, resentful, and helpless" as anyone. He is the ultimate lying hypocrite; he
does nothing but criticize others:
"Comments
APD is a useless statistic. It is a arbitrary measure and is highly subjective. Use profit factor instead. Another scalping system - dismal P/L per unit - low reliabiility to make a profit. Avoid day trading systems in general - they are waiting to crash some day. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog10-22-04/ http://www.dontloseyourass.com/about.htm A good place to start doing your own research: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog2-07-06/
Comments
Profit Factor > 3.0 - Highly optimized system just waiting to crash soon...
Comments
Avoid day trading systems in general - they are waiting to crash some day. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog10-22-04/ http://www.dontloseyourass.com/about.htm A good place to start doing your own research: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog2-07-06/
Comments
Another scalping system - dismal P/L per unit - low reliabiility to make a profit. Avoid day trading systems in general - they are waiting to crash some day. http://www.dontloseyourass.com/about.htm http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog10-22-04/ A good place to start doing your own research: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog2-07-06/
etc...." |
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| Subject: | Big Cat - OptionsXpress or Open E Cry |
| Posted by: | Howard Roark |
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| When: | 7/22/07 (20:24) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 7/22/07 (20:05) > Evil men like Ross and Sam, taken pure, i.e., deprived of any assistance from the principle of virtue, are not the flamboyant value-achievers .......
See entire
Parasitic-Evader bordering on criminal, case - No cure for this. So, avoid Ross, Sam et. al., |
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