*** PREDICTION for the Next Trading Day:
For Friday we say: "The market will probably give back 'some' gains on Friday, although the Dow (DIA) will most likely hold up pretty well, possibly giving us a mixed Close. We still have an MTI (Market Timing Indicator) that is greater than the 1.0 neutral value (it is currently at 1.1733), and our BLUE Market Color Code continues. All of this suggests that we still have some kind of uptrend reforming, but Friday will likely represent a small bump in the road before gains might be expected to continue".
*** Scoring of Previous PREDICTION:
For Thursday we had said: "We believe that the market will 'hold', or rise modestly on Thursday. Now, the Market Timing Indicator (MTI) is only slightly above the neutral value (it is now at 1.2128), and our indicators are about as weak as they can be and still generate BUY signals. Our BLUE (relatively safe) Market Color Code continues, and the market still seems fairly solid. Note that our Mutual Fund signal (MFTI-A) returned to a BUY state several days ago, although this renewed buying period has not as yet gotten off to a very impressive start".
How did we do? The Forecast for Thursday was accurate; the market did gain, as we had allowed for, but the issue was far from clear immediately following the Open -- suggesting that our description of weak underlying factors was probably valid.
*** Note 1: The MTI can range from about -2.5 to +2.5, with a 'neutral' value of 1.0. A value of 1.0 will generally be associated with a market that is either stable (holding its valuations) or rising slowly and erratically. Values greater than 1.0 signify a 'long' market, while values substantially below 1.0 (and especially zero or negative) signify shorting situations. Although the MTI is extremely useful (especially in the construction of equity-specific models), bear in mind that it has a reaction time of several days. It is thus not sufficient to use this indicator alone for trading specific equities on a day-by-day basis.
Schulenberg 2X-Hedged IWM (^IWM2)