*** PREDICTION for the Next Trading Day:
For Monday we say: "The Market Timing Indicator (MTI) is maintaining a fairly decent value; at 1.3884 it remains above the 1.0 neutral value, and although our GREEN Market Color Code has vanished, BLUE (our 'relatively safe' color) isn't so bad. We think that the market will stabilize on Monday, and has a good chance of closing a bit higher. Remember, however, that our Long-Term (mutual fund) trading signal remains in the SELL/SHORT state. This suggests that the market will eventually go lower. In the meantime, we are trying to make some gains by trading the short-term signals."
*** Scoring of Previous PREDICTION:
For Friday we had said: "We took a 'hit' on Wednesday, but our signals had us stay Long on Thursday -- which was the correct move. Our Market Timing Indicator (MTI) has now risen slightly (to 1.5169), and is thus well above the 1.0 neutral value. Furthermore, our GREEN Market Color Code has returned. Now, on the negative side, our short-term neural networks look pessimistic, and that doesn't help our frame of mind as we go into Friday the 13th. Nonetheless, most of our signals are staying Long and we believe that the market will at least 'hold' near current valuations, and has a decent chance of closing a bit higher."
How did we do? The Forecast for Friday was clearly too optimistic; the market failed to 'hold', and certainly didn't close higher. Well, it was after all Friday the 13th...
*** Note 1: The MTI can range from about -2.5 to +2.5, with a 'neutral' value of 1.0. A value of 1.0 will generally be associated with a market that is either stable (holding its valuations) or rising slowly and erratically. Values greater than 1.0 signify a 'long' market, while values substantially below 1.0 (and especially zero or negative) signify shorting situations. Although the MTI is extremely useful (especially in the construction of equity-specific models), bear in mind that it has a reaction time of several days. It is thus not sufficient to use this indicator alone for trading specific equities on a day-by-day basis.
Schulenberg 2X-Hedged IWM (^IWM2)