*** PREDICTION for the Next Trading Day:
For Monday we say: "We may have been lucky on Friday, but we were Long and that is what counts! For Monday the Market Timing Indicator (MTI) has strengthened considerably to 0.9979 ... just barely under the 1.0 'neutral' value. We have an ORANGE Market Color Code, and this is known as our 'anything can happen' color. What we think will happen, however, is that the market will move higher. Our long-term (mutual fund) signals, which had switched back to the BUY state last Tuesday, remain in a BUY/hold state. As far as we can tell the market has bottomed and is preparing a new sustainable uptrend. It is too early, of course, to be totally sure of this."
*** Scoring of Previous PREDICTION:
For Friday we had said: "Bounce? The Market Timing Indicator (MTI) has (unsurprisingly) slipped back to a negative value, but our neural networks and other indicators suggest that we may have a sizeable bounce on Friday. In any event, the bulk of our signals are staying Long ... and our long-term signals are definitely staying in the BUY state after flipping from the one-month old SELL state on Tuesday. We expect that the market will regain some lost ground on Friday".
How did we do? The Forecast for Friday was "perfect"!
*** Note 1: The MTI can range from about -2.5 to +2.5, with a 'neutral' value of 1.0. A value of 1.0 will generally be associated with a market that is either stable (holding its valuations) or rising slowly and erratically. Values greater than 1.0 signify a 'long' market, while values substantially below 1.0 (and especially zero or negative) signify shorting situations. Although the MTI is extremely useful (especially in the construction of equity-specific models), bear in mind that it has a reaction time of several days. It is thus not sufficient to use this indicator alone for trading specific equities on a day-by-day basis.
Schulenberg 2X-Hedged IWM (^IWM2)