*** PREDICTION for the Next Trading Day:
For Wednesday we say: "The market should gap-up at the Open on Wednesday and then decline. In any event, despite the strengthening of the Market Timing Indicator (MTI) to 0.7500 (still below the 1.0 neutral value), and the YELLOW (Caution) Market Color Code -- which is better than the previous RED (Danger) color -- we think that the market will give back early gains and close flat/mixed or slightly lower. As for Thursday, when President Obama presents his Jobs Plan, it is too early to say. Our current market assessment (BNB Indicator) is 'slightly Bearish'. Also, our long-term (mutual fund) signals are still clinging to the Buy/Hold state ... so for the time being we don't see any serious downtrend forming".
*** Scoring of Previous PREDICTION:
For Tuesday we had said: "The Market Timing Indicator (MTI) has moved back to a low positive value (0.2433), but this of course remains below the 1.0 'neutral' value. Still, we have quite a few BUY signals for Tuesday that suggest that the market will likely move upwards a bit as buyers step in to pick up some values. We have a Fed Beige Book release on Wednesday, and that will help keep interest up -- as will the President's Jobs Speech. Our RED (Danger) Market Color Code continues, but this is certainly not surprising. The long-term (mutual fund) timing signals are still in a BUY (actually Hold) state. We expect that the market will tend to stabilize on Tuesday (i.e., 'hold' near current valuations), and should regain some lost ground as we move towards Wednesday and Thursday."
How did we do? The Forecast for Tuesday was pretty darn good -- although we 'should have' been Short on Thursday and Friday. We are, however, going to walk back the remark that things should get even better on Wednesday and Thursday.
*** Note 1: The MTI can range from about -2.5 to +2.5, with a 'neutral' value of 1.0. A value of 1.0 will generally be associated with a market that is either stable (holding its valuations) or rising slowly and erratically. Values greater than 1.0 signify a 'long' market, while values substantially below 1.0 (and especially zero or negative) signify shorting situations. Although the MTI is extremely useful (especially in the construction of equity-specific models), bear in mind that it has a reaction time of several days. It is thus not sufficient to use this indicator alone for trading specific equities on a day-by-day basis.
Schulenberg 2X-Hedged IWM (^IWM2)