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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Summer M |
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| When: | 12/09/06 (20:36) | |
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| | Hello,
I am interested in following the "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" system. The statistics seem outstanding. 98% win percentage (with average loss amount LESS THAN average win amount) and with only a 4.09% max drawdown.... What's the catch?
I tried examining the recent trade signals entered and it looks like several extreme and very high drawdown/risk entries. How can that be if it has only 4% max drawdown according to the statistics? Also, it looks like none of the signals are CLOSE signals. What does this signify? Also, I don't really understand how there can be profit in the P/L column if it is simply a Buy To Open signal or Sell To Open signal?
How can I tell if a particular system would be effective with very small capital (like $1,000 instead of $100,000 to start with)?
Thanks so much for your help,
Summer |
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Science Trader ( C2 Score: 268 ) |
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| When: | 12/09/06 (21:23) | |
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| | In response to post by Summer M of 12/09/06 (20:36) Hello,
I am interested in following the "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" system. The statistics seem outstanding. 98% win percentage (with average loss amount LESS THAN average win amount) and with only a 4.09% max drawdown.... What's the catch?
...
See entire
Summer,
These are excellent questions to ask the vendor directly before you subscribe. If the vendor is not very responsive or is not able to clarify things, you might think twice about subscribing.
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 12/09/06 (21:26) | |
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| | In response to post by Summer M of 12/09/06 (20:36) Hello,
I am interested in following the "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" system. The statistics seem outstanding. 98% win percentage (with average loss amount LESS THAN average win amount) and with only a 4.09% max drawdown.... What's the catch?
...
See entire
Summer,
I think that you can get a lot of information from reading the recent discussions on the forum of that system. Go to the page of that system (where you see the equity curve) and then click "Forum" in the orange box.
In this discussions, I would tend to believe Lew Payne, who says that the system can be traded but that you have to be an experienced trader and not follow the signals blindly. (I write this from memory, so I apologize if I say something wrong, Lew).
I don't trade futures, but I doubt that $1000 will be enough. E.g. IB requires a deposit of $5000 and for a margin account you must have at least $2000. Another one would be Open E-cry; see http://www.openecry.com/traderstoolbox/margins.cfm
for their margin requirements. |
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 12/09/06 (21:37) | |
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| | In response to post by Science Trader of 12/09/06 (21:23) Summer,
These are excellent questions to ask the vendor directly before you subscribe. If the vendor is not very responsive or is not able to clarify things, you might think twice about subscribing....
See entire
Science trader,
I don't know if you have any experience with futures, but do you think that $1000 would be enough for any futures system? |
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Science Trader ( C2 Score: 268) |
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| When: | 12/09/06 (22:32) | |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 12/09/06 (21:37) Science trader,
I don't know if you have any experience with futures, but do you think that $1000 would be enough for any futures system?
If he wants the same amount of leverage as the vendor, he can divide current equity shown on C2 ($286,250), by the minimum size of the most recent orders (25 units). Thus, the minimum capital (when using a scaling factor of 1/25) would be $11,450. Since he says he's a newbie, he might actually prefer to use lower leverage than the vendor, in which case he would need more than $11,450.
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Emily Tansen |
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| When: | 12/09/06 (22:40) | |
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| | In response to post by Science Trader of 12/09/06 (22:32) If he wants the same amount of leverage as the vendor, he can divide current equity shown on C2 ($286,250), by the minimum size of the most recent orders (25 units). Thus, the minimum capital (when using a scaling factor of 1/25) would be $11,450. Since he says he's a newbie, he might actually prefer to use lower leverage than the vendor, in which case he would need more than $11,450....
See entire
While collective2 offers much more for the experienced futures trader than has ever been offered, I do fear it offers an inverse increased disservice to very new futures traders.
Then again, considering that 95% of small futures accounts (<50k) get blown out in the first twelve months, I suppose the damage (if any) is limited and probably moot.
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Science Trader ( C2 Score: 268) |
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| When: | 12/09/06 (22:51) | |
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| | In response to post by Emily Tansen of 12/09/06 (22:40)
While collective2 offers much more for the experienced futures trader than has ever been offered, I do fear it offers an inverse increased disservice to very new futures traders....
See entire
Agree. An additional problem you run into with low capital is that for most successful systems the (absolute) profits won't be high enough to offset/justify the subscription fee. There might be exceptions though, in particular for younger systems, but you have to search thoroughly. |
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Emily Tansen |
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| When: | 12/09/06 (22:52) | |
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| | In response to post by Summer M of 12/09/06 (20:36) Hello,
I am interested in following the "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" system. The statistics seem outstanding. 98% win percentage (with average loss amount LESS THAN average win amount) and with only a 4.09% max drawdown.... What's the catch?
...
See entire
Summer,
Don't consider trading futures with less than $50k.
Even then, it is RIDICULOUSLY risky.
My recommendation would be to not trade any system available on C2 until it has been here for one year, minimum.
Keep in mind, C2 has been here MUCH longer than 1 year. Granted, very few systems were offered here in the early days.
There are a very few number of systems that have lasted that long, although I expect that number to start to increase in the next 6 months (wishful thinking?).
You are looking at a very unrealistic system (which even you admitted). It won't be here to visit it's one year anniversary.
System vendors play games specifically designed to attract "overly hopefull" clients.
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 12/09/06 (23:17) | |
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| | In response to post by Emily Tansen of 12/09/06 (22:52) Summer,
Don't consider trading futures with less than $50k.
Even then, it is RIDICULOUSLY risky.
My recommendation would be to not trade any system available on C2 until it has been here for one year, minimum....
See entire
That makes sense. I have $30K and I don't even dare to consider futures.
What I imagine with $1000 is that, even if you're able to open a trade, the next time you blink with your eyes you've got a margin call, and after the next blink your account is whiped out.
Summer, are you a newbie to only C2 or to trading in general? I suppose the latter. In that case: Do you know the difference between futures, forex, options and stocks? The first three are leveraged, which means that you can lose your money very quickly. With the first two you can lose even more than you have. |
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Pete * |
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| When: | 12/10/06 (8:22) | |
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| | In response to post by Summer M of 12/09/06 (20:36) Hello,
I am interested in following the "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" system. The statistics seem outstanding. 98% win percentage (with average loss amount LESS THAN average win amount) and with only a 4.09% max drawdown.... What's the catch?
...
See entire
"Also, it looks like none of the signals are CLOSE signals. What does this signify? Also, I don't really understand how there can be profit in the P/L column if it is simply a Buy To Open signal or Sell To Open signal? "
Each line in the position details section represents a complete trade, so if the first column is a Buy to Open (BTO) then you will see in the middle column a second trade of Sell to Close (STC). |
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| Subject: | Newbie interested in "Rocket Science-Mini Dow" |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 12/10/06 (8:32) | |
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| | In response to post by Science Trader of 12/09/06 (22:51) Agree. An additional problem you run into with low capital is that for most successful systems the (absolute) profits wo...
See entire
The $1000 would be gone well before profits would offset system fees. I believe that system was $189 a month?? |
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