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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958 ) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (7:18) | |
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| | Si, it's your system and it's up to you, but my personal advice is: take a step back, stop trading for a while as the markets are so volatile and let the dust settle, and most importantly stop going against the trend.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (7:28) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 7/27/07 (7:18) Si, it's your system and it's up to you, but my personal advice is: take a step back, stop trading for a while as the markets are so volatile and let the dust settle, and most importantly stop going against the trend....
See entire
On re-reading my first post I may have come across too harsh. I just want to say that in times like these it may be better to step aside and wait until the markets settle. I noticed there were a lot of trades this week and it looks like the system vendoir is trying hard to put in trades and recover from the drawdown. Drawdown is inevitable and it happens. But the best course of action could be to just relax for a while. The worst possible action would be to try too hard to recover the losses, as that often leads to more losses. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | George Wu |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (9:27) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 7/27/07 (7:28) On re-reading my first post I may have come across too harsh. I just want to say that in times like these it may be bet...
See entire
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | nigel cole ( C2 Score: 721) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (10:56) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 7/27/07 (7:28) On re-reading my first post I may have come across too harsh. I just want to say that in times like these it may be bet...
See entire
Si, Try not to get too disheartened. Your drawdown is not bad enough to warrant some of the comments directed at you. Part of the problem may be that your equity curve was too damn good before this episode which only served to encourage some foolish people to over-leverage causing more sever problems for those involved.
This is just human nature. Good results lead to over-confidence which leads to over leverage, then hurt and the normal predictable blaming of anybody else. Human nature is beyond your control, Si, so take heart and follow Reinhards advice - step back and try not to be affected by others - this is how your mechanical system will get infected with human emotion, if you let it. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (12:08) | |
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| | In response to post by nigel cole of 7/27/07 (10:56) Si, Try not to get too disheartened. Your drawdown is not bad enough to warrant some of the comments directed at you. Part of the problem may be that your equity curve was too damn good before this episode which only served to encourage some foolish people to over-leverage causing more sever problems for those involved....
See entire
> step back and try not to be affected by others -
Good advice.
> this is how your mechanical system will get infected with human emotion, if you let it.
Wait a second. This system is 70% fundamental. How can it be
a mechanical system? |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Gilbert Arevalo ( C2 Score: 995) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (12:43) | |
| Systems: | ES Timer, Small Cap (3X) Timer, Small Cap (5X) Turbo Timer, UltraPro (3X) QQQ Timer, UltraPro (3X) SPX Timer, 29417555, 29594253, KC Covered Call Fund, KC E-mini (closed), KC Elite (closed), KC Futures (closed), KC Hedge (closed Dec 2010), KC Leader (closed), KC Legacy (closed), KC Partners (closed), KC QLD/QID (closed Feb 2011), KC's ES Madness-old, KC's NQ Extreme-old, KC's NQ Madness (closed), KC's QLD/QID Madness (closed), Kingdom Capital Funds |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 7/27/07 (12:08) > step back and try not to be affected by others -
Good advice.
> this is how your mechanical system will get infected with human emotion, if you let it....
See entire
Si: Don't let any subscriber distract you. Put out your take on your system (likely gains/consistently likely drawdowns) and produce.
Leave the "timing", opinions and belly-aching to those that KNOW the risks/expectations involved and can simply move their money elsewhere.
DO work on containing (being true to your methods) your drawdowns - but by all means...stay focused on your trading/managing and ignore the noise.
People are in deep denial if they think they are going to (along side you) generate 100% in 7 months and not experience the periodic 15-25% drawdown.
Problem is, they are mostly newbies - spoiled by the "wonders" of the market these past few 12-48 months. lol
Timing never works for the subsciber...perhaps for some (precious few) vendors - KNOCK 'EM DEAD, Si and ignore the bull*.Gilbert |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Algimantas B. ( C2 Score: 225) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (12:51) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 7/27/07 (7:18) Si, it's your system and it's up to you, but my personal advice is: take a step back, stop trading for a while as the markets are so volatile and let the dust settle, and most importantly stop going against the trend....
See entire
Amazing how people likes teach. "Stop going against the trend", "trend is your friend " . Sounds good but not an evidence. Don't listen Si. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 999) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (13:04) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by Algimantas B. of 7/27/07 (12:51) Amazing how people likes teach. "Stop going against the trend", "trend is your friend " . Sounds good but not an evidence. Don't listen Si.
If the trend was really a friend we would all be wealthy, and no one would need someone like Si to help them make money. Best thing Si could do now is shut this forum off and trade. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (13:13) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 7/27/07 (12:08) > step back and try not to be affected by others -
Good advice.
> this is how your mechanical system will get infected with human emotion, if you let it....
See entire
> Wait a second. This system is 70% fundamental. How can it be
a mechanical system?
Right. This thread illuminates a problem of discretionary systems: subscribers cannot know to which extent trades are influenced by emotions.
Basically all posters give the same advice: "Si, continue to trade like you always did". The difference is that some posters are afraid that he is not doing that anymore, while others are afraid that such remarks may cause him to change. The common element is that apparently all posters are afraid that Si may be affected by pressure of subscribers - one way or the other. This fear is not irrational because we don't know much about the vendors in general.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Gilbert Arevalo ( C2 Score: 995) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (13:29) | |
| Systems: | ES Timer, Small Cap (3X) Timer, Small Cap (5X) Turbo Timer, UltraPro (3X) QQQ Timer, UltraPro (3X) SPX Timer, 29417555, 29594253, KC Covered Call Fund, KC E-mini (closed), KC Elite (closed), KC Futures (closed), KC Hedge (closed Dec 2010), KC Leader (closed), KC Legacy (closed), KC Partners (closed), KC QLD/QID (closed Feb 2011), KC's ES Madness-old, KC's NQ Extreme-old, KC's NQ Madness (closed), KC's QLD/QID Madness (closed), Kingdom Capital Funds |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/27/07 (13:13) > Wait a second. This system is 70% fundamental. How can it be
a mechanical system?
Right. This thread illuminates a problem of discretionary systems: subscribers cannot know to which extent trades are influenced by emotions....
See entire
...who are you kidding? If you had this specific quality you'd be ranting about your own system. Most all remarks in the guise of "healthy analysis" don't help.
Why second guess a successful vendor who obviously has worked things out to the nth degree. Back off, encourage and don't think too highly of what you've come up with - it doesn't help much.
Gilbert |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (13:34) | |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (13:04) If the trend was really a friend we would all be wealthy, and no one would need someone like Si to help them make money. Best thing Si could do now is shut this forum off and trade.
> If the trend was really a friend we would all be wealthy, and no one would need someone like Si to help them make money.
The real line is "the trend is your friend until it ends....."
Moreover, markets trade on every degree of scale. What scale are
we looking at the trend from? On a monthly scale the trend is not
only still up in the GBPJPY, but it hasn't even touched the June low.
The weekly is also still up. Daily and hourly are down. 1 minute is
up/sideways. So which scale does VN trade? Oh, wait! He doesn't
necessarily trade the trend at all:
VN "uses about 60-70% Fundamental Analysis with 30-40% Technical Analysis". That doesn't say anything about the trend does it? Why does
anyone suggest this method trades or should trade the trend? |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 999) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (14:14) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 7/27/07 (13:34) > If the trend was really a friend we would all be wealthy, and no one would need someone like Si to help them make money....
See entire
In his second post Reinhard does not mention the trend so perhaps he realized his error.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (14:40) | |
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| | In response to post by Gilbert Arevalo of 7/27/07 (13:29) ...who are you kidding? If you had this specific quality you'd be ranting about your own system. Most all remarks in the guise of "healthy analysis" don't help....
See entire
Honestly, I don't understand a word of your post. Are you talking to me or did you confuse me with someone else?
What "specific quality" do you mean? I didn't use the phrase "healthy analysis", so why do you direct this remark at me?
"Why second guess a successful vendor ..."
I didn't say anything about the vendor, except that we don't know anything about him, which is why I didn't say anything about him. I was talking about the posters. In a previous post I defended the vendor against the suggestion that he was doing retaliation trades. So what are you talking about?
"Back off,..."
Do you mean I should unsubscribe from VN Forex? Why? Because you can't read? If you are not subscribed yourself then you are the one who should back off.
"...encourage..."
So posting a ranking where this system is listed as one of the top systems is not encouraring? Perhaps you should take the time to read instead of talking like a decapitated chicken. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (14:47) | |
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| | In response to post by Gilbert Arevalo of 7/27/07 (13:29) ...who are you kidding? If you had this specific quality you'd be ranting about your own system. Most all remarks in the guise of "healthy analysis" don't help....
See entire
PS. Since you didn't call me names I should not have done that either. I take that last sentence back. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Gilbert Arevalo ( C2 Score: 995) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (15:07) | |
| Systems: | ES Timer, Small Cap (3X) Timer, Small Cap (5X) Turbo Timer, UltraPro (3X) QQQ Timer, UltraPro (3X) SPX Timer, 29417555, 29594253, KC Covered Call Fund, KC E-mini (closed), KC Elite (closed), KC Futures (closed), KC Hedge (closed Dec 2010), KC Leader (closed), KC Legacy (closed), KC Partners (closed), KC QLD/QID (closed Feb 2011), KC's ES Madness-old, KC's NQ Extreme-old, KC's NQ Madness (closed), KC's QLD/QID Madness (closed), Kingdom Capital Funds |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/27/07 (14:47) PS. Since you didn't call me names I should not have done that either. I take that last sentence back.
...nothing against you Jules or anyone that has the ability to concede toward reason...BUT my point is "who are we?"
We are not the system vendor...simply the subscriber to the signals and should refrain from ANY characterization that may be misconstued as demeaning toward a vendor.
Gilbert |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (15:45) | |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (14:14) In his second post Reinhard does not mention the trend so perhaps he realized his error.
I am concerned about going against the trend. GBP/JPY is in a steep short term downtrend. VN Forex club has tried three times to enter a position and got stopped out every time. The forth attempt is running as I write. Nobody can know when the trend will end; all I was trying to say is that if you are in drawdown and you are finfing yourself fighting against a trend, it may be better to step back and relax and not trade for a while rather than desperately trying to get out of the drawdown.
I agree that ultimately only the system vendor should make their decisions. But I find some of the suggestions made here a bit offensife, like "shut down this forum", or "how dare you criticise someone who has turned a 100% profit for being in 15% drawdown". In a way, it is irrelevant how well this system performed in the past, right now it clearly not performing too well. I think I detected a change in tack over the past week as markets grew more volatile. There were many more trades than before, and on many occasions small profits were taken but loosers let run to the stop, only to immediately re-open the same position just below the stop and get stopped yet again further down. These are signs of a trader who is under pressure and is trying too hard. Hence my advice to step back for while and let the market settle. This does not seem to be happening though, as we are yet again in a GBP/JPY trade, which I have for now decided not to follow any more for the time being, until the markets have calmed down. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (16:32) | |
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| | In response to post by Gilbert Arevalo of 7/27/07 (15:07) ...nothing against you Jules or anyone that has the ability to concede toward reason...BUT my point is "who are we?"
...
See entire
I still don't understand you. Where was I demeaning towards Si? |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 999) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (16:37) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 7/27/07 (15:45) I am concerned about going against the trend. GBP/JPY is in a steep short term downtrend. VN Forex club has tried thre...
See entire
" Posted: Si Nguyen (Admin) (C2 Rating: 727)
When: 6/27/07 (10:07)
Systems: VN Forex Club, VFC Hedge Basket
List subjects
Reply
In response to post by George Wu of 6/27/07 (1:02)
It seems like we are always opposite to the trend lately. When we cut loss(EUR/JPY), JPY starts to appreciate. When we short JPY (Long EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY), it starts to go the other way. What exactly are the fundmental or technical reasons behind these trade decisions? Si, could you elaborate a little bit? Thanks....
See entire
Hi George,
Sometime I don’t trade base on technical and/or fundamental analysis. If you read the “USD/JPY trade” thread start by Reinhard Schu, you will notice that I agreed with Reinhard's technical and even fundamental analysis and yes, I placed a trade in opposite direction with the analysis.
The reason for the last few JPY related trades was I used the strategy call “Contrary opinion trading”. This strategy basically says that when the vast majority of people agree on anything, they are generally wrong. Therefore, an experience trader should first try to determine what the majority are doing and then he act in the opposite direction.
It used to works well in the past but unfortunately it didn’t work this time. The recent BOJ call is nothing new. The BOJ did the same thing when the EUR/JPY was approached 150.00 mark the first time and yet it is now over 164.00 Anyway, I do think that the carry trade will start to come back as soon as today therefore I still holding the long GBP/JPY position.
Regards,
Si Nguyen "
( This is part of the system, as Si writes above, most likely responsable for some of the profits up to now.
Trading is a mind game, get onto a traders head and you risk a real drawdown. )
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Todd Hurd ( C2 Score: 671) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (17:00) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 7/27/07 (7:18) Si, it's your system and it's up to you, but my personal advice is: take a step back, stop trading for a while as the markets are so volatile and let the dust settle, and most importantly stop going against the trend....
See entire
Indeed. I've been going with the Trend and have recovered some of my losses with Si's system via fx-auto. I don't think we've bottomed out either.. I think it's fair to say we can probably see another strong movement down on the GBP/USD with some extreme choppiness next week.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | George Wu |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (17:43) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 7/27/07 (15:45) I am concerned about going against the trend. GBP/JPY is in a steep short term downtrend. VN Forex club has tried thre...
See entire
I totally agree with your observations about those JPY trades. I espeically do not understand the reasons/strategies of opening another same trade immediately after stopped out (for several times). Should we calm down and take it slowly, Si?
Thanks,
George |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 999) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (18:07) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (16:37) " Posted: Si Nguyen (Admin) (C2 Rating: 727)
When: 6/27/07 (10:07)
Systems: VN Forex Club, VFC Hedge Basket
...
See entire
" sometimes, if one gets bombarded with suggestions, advice and trading strategies, sad stories- it could influence him. i'm not saying this has affected my trading- but, on some levels it could come to haunt you- especially if you make a bad trade, or a series of bad trades... maybe that guy was right? that guy lost money because of me!.... "
Aestreux Fund (Admin), wrote the above.
Another good looking forex system everyone had advice for as it was struggling, it never has recovered and perhaps the negative comments did not make a difference, but I think its safe to say subscribers got into his head.
Interestingly enough an Aestreux Fund reveiwer wrote the following.
"It seems a non-mechanic discretionary system. The System Vender performs great so far but tends to bet heavily with his firm believe against the market trend – resulting either huge gain or loss (risky). An outstanding young system needs to be observed for longer period for stability."
Aestreux Fund, poster, 6/20/06
"Why so much interest in volatile Yen - easier/safer/smaller pickings to be had elsewhere."
I don't mean to compare these two systems, just thought this was interesting.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (18:17) | |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (18:07) " sometimes, if one gets bombarded with suggestions, advice and trading strategies, sad stories- it could influence him. i'm not saying this has affected my trading- but, on some levels it could come to haunt you- especially if you make a bad trade, or a series of bad trades... maybe that guy was right? that guy lost money because of me!.... "
...
See entire
I understand your point that subscribers can get into the vendors head by commenting too much. But is your suggestion of this possibility not just another way to get into the vendors head? After all you too assume implicitely that the vendor is sensitive to subscriber pressure, but a different kind of subscriber pressure. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 999) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (18:22) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/27/07 (18:17) I understand your point that subscribers can get into the vendors head by commenting too much. But is your suggestion of...
See entire
Correct, Thought of this while writing and wondered if anyone would call me on it.
Shame on me. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 999) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (18:26) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (18:22) Correct, Thought of this while writing and wondered if anyone would call me on it.
Shame on me.
This is why I will never have an open forum.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (18:41) | |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (18:07) " sometimes, if one gets bombarded with suggestions, advice and trading strategies, sad stories- it could influence him. i'm not saying this has affected my trading- but, on some levels it could come to haunt you- especially if you make a bad trade, or a series of bad trades... maybe that guy was right? that guy lost money because of me!.... "
...
See entire
> "It seems a non-mechanic discretionary system. The System Vender performs great so far but tends to bet heavily with his firm believe against the market trend – resulting either huge gain or loss (risky)...."
Actually if you look at the time Aestreux Fund made it's huge run
up it was riding a sharp downtrend in the dollar and getting mostly
long GBP and EUR against everything JYP and USD. He was trading
200-400 units and planning to quit his day job and start a fund....and
that was after only six weeks in the business and before anyone had
anything but love for this guy.
You can blame it on the subscribers, etc., but the bottom line was he
had little experience, had a good run by betting heavily and correctly
on a strong near term trend, got way over confident, and his system
peaked to the hour with the June 06 top in the EURUSD. The fund even had the little double top just like the EURUSD. Never figured out the trend again..... |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Gilbert Arevalo ( C2 Score: 995) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (18:44) | |
| Systems: | ES Timer, Small Cap (3X) Timer, Small Cap (5X) Turbo Timer, UltraPro (3X) QQQ Timer, UltraPro (3X) SPX Timer, 29417555, 29594253, KC Covered Call Fund, KC E-mini (closed), KC Elite (closed), KC Futures (closed), KC Hedge (closed Dec 2010), KC Leader (closed), KC Legacy (closed), KC Partners (closed), KC QLD/QID (closed Feb 2011), KC's ES Madness-old, KC's NQ Extreme-old, KC's NQ Madness (closed), KC's QLD/QID Madness (closed), Kingdom Capital Funds |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 7/27/07 (16:32) I still don't understand you. Where was I demeaning towards Si?
I don't really know who was saying what and what they mean...
> this is how your mechanical system will get infected with human emotion, if you let it.
> Wait a second. This system is 70% fundamental. How can it be
a mechanical system?
Right. This thread illuminates a problem of discretionary systems: subscribers cannot know to which extent trades are influenced by emotions.
Basically all posters give the same advice: "Si, continue to trade like you always did". The difference is that some posters are afraid that he is not doing that anymore, while others are afraid that such remarks may cause him to change. The common element is that apparently all posters are afraid that Si may be affected by pressure of subscribers - one way or the other. This fear is not irrational because we don't know much about the vendors in general.
I guess I took the last sentence as meaning that some are trying to "figure out" a vendor and his methods and since intentions may not entirely be on the up and up, people just shouldn't pry. The speculative conversation takes away the vendors focus and errors occur when over-compensations are made. That's it.
Gilbert |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 999) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (18:50) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 7/27/07 (18:41) > "It seems a non-mechanic discretionary system. The System Vender performs great so far but tends to bet heavily with his firm believe against the market trend – resulting either huge gain or loss (risky)...."
...
See entire
Yes Sam,
That is why I added this, " perhaps the negative comments did not make a difference," (remembered you explaining this somewhere) |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (18:55) | |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (18:50) Yes Sam,
That is why I added this, " perhaps the negative comments did not make a difference," (remembered you explaining this somewhere)
> "perhaps the negative comments did not make a difference,"
Of course, but it seems no one now (and no one then) is comparing the
equity curve charts to the charts of the markets traded....there is a correlation.
BTW, and FWIW, I have not said a critical word to Si.... |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 999) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (18:57) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (18:50) Yes Sam,
That is why I added this, " perhaps the negative comments did not make a difference," (remembered you explaining this somewhere)
I should also say Si seems very centered which may be the reason for his success so far and why subscribers might not bother him at all. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 999) |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (19:02) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (18:57) I should also say Si seems very centered which may be the reason for his success so far and why subscribers might not bother him at all.
I have not compared charts, interesting. If I understand you correctly perhaps Jules got his answer. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (19:36) | |
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| | In response to post by Gilbert Arevalo of 7/27/07 (18:44) I don't really know who was saying what and what they mean...
> this is how your mechanical system will get infected with human emotion, if you let it....
See entire
I was somewhat in a hurry to walk my dog when I wrote that sentence. I felt that I should add something to it, but I didn't know fast enough what. What I tried to say with that sentence is not that such discussions are good, but that they are a somewhat unavoidable consequence of discretionary systems, because no one knows the vendor personnally. Nothing against Si personally. I agree that such conversations might harm the trading, but then again, assuming this might harm the trading as well - as I tried to say to Frank. So preferably we should not have such discussions at all (like you said), but then again it is quite predictable (that is perhaps a better word than "rational") that such discussions will occur. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 7/27/07 (22:25) | |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 7/27/07 (18:22) Correct, Thought of this while writing and wondered if anyone would call me on it.
Shame on me.
But you may be right. See the rebuttal to one of the reviews, where the vendor wrote
"...so PLEASE do not disturb me during drawdown." |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 8/01/07 (9:17) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 7/27/07 (7:18) Si, it's your system and it's up to you, but my personal advice is: take a step back, stop trading for a while as the markets are so volatile and let the dust settle, and most importantly stop going against the trend....
See entire
Following Si's message to the subscribers of the system, it is now clear that "going against the trend" and picking tops and bottoms is a core part of the strategy of the system.
I think this should be made clearer in the system description, which currently reads: "The system [...] uses about 60-70% Fundamental Analysis with 30-40% Technical Analysis".
Opinions on fundamentals may of course differ,, but I cannot see how on "60-70% Fundamental Analysis" one can continuously bet on a long Sterling/short Yen positio, which has proven rather ruinous.
I also DO think the system vendor has changed his trading style since changes to the subscription terms (abolishment of 200 pip guarantee and free of charge for autotrading). Whether that is because of commissions, as some have suggested, or not, I do not know. It does not matter to me. But the trading style has definitely changed, and the vendor seems to have changed into a mode where he scalps small profits, but these are outmatched by the bigger losses on the losing trades.
There is no doubt that VNForex has been a very successful system until recently. However, too many initially successful systems on C2 have subsequently gone down the pan, and in many cases it was because the system vendor changed something. I am not saying that the vendor changed anything purposfully to make more commission. The change may have been unconciously made, but it seems to me more than coincidence that the system's largest drawdown occured just after the change to free autotrading and the removal of the 200pip guranatee, and as I said, I DO firmly believe the trading style has changed since then. Many more trades, much more small profit scalping, much more bottom fishing than before. Make of it what you want. I sincerely hope VN Forex Club will recover and not follow the path of Astereux and others. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/01/07 (11:20) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 8/01/07 (9:17) Following Si's message to the subscribers of the system, it is now clear that "going against the trend" and picking tops and bottoms is a core part of the strategy of the system....
See entire
>Following Si's message to the subscribers of the system, it is now clear that "going against the trend" and picking tops and bottoms is a core part of the strategy of the system.
> I think this should be made clearer in the system description...
Actually, based on the weekly trend, most of Si's winning trades are
with the trend in spite of his words and the many complaints here to
the contrary. Please plot a 1 standard deviation regression
channel on the GBPJPY weekly from the July 2005 low. As I write
the GBPJPY is dead center in the middle of that uptrend. So, based
on the weekly trend, ALL the recent GBPJPY buys are with the trend.
Ironically, the market hit the upper channel at 250.900...so, if he had
"picked a top" as he says he does (and as everyone suggests he shouldn't) he'd be kicking ass right now and not hearing how he shouldn't
be picking tops. Funny eh?
BTW, your system description says:
"Contango Extractor is a low-risk system..."
Shouldn't you change that and make it more clearer and accurate? |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (5:18) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 7/27/07 (7:18) Si, it's your system and it's up to you, but my personal advice is: take a step back, stop trading for a while as the markets are so volatile and let the dust settle, and most importantly stop going against the trend....
See entire
Si is at it again. Going, again and again, against the the trend of the carry trades unwinding. He says his is a contrarian approach. But contrarian and suicidal are not the same thing, and I think going short Yen is suicidal in this market. I will not implement any more VN Forex signals asking me to go short Yen. One could perfectly well trade a contrarian style by going long Yen during the intermittent retracements. At least that way, one is in sync with the overriding medium trend.
I am close to unsubscribing. It looks like VN Forex Club will suffer the fate of most other systems here. The trading style of the vendor works for a while. Then, when market conditions change, it stops working. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | jean-marc Garcia ( C2 Score: 304) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (7:01) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 8/15/07 (5:18) Si is at it again. Going, again and again, against the the trend of the carry trades unwinding. He says his is a contr...
See entire
What is very funy here is none performer vendors giving advice to well performer vendor. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Rick Haines ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (10:18) | |
| Systems: | RPH, RPH Revised, RPH2, Conservative Growth, Diversified ETF Timer, Extreme Trader, rydex 500, rydex qqqq, self directed 401 timer, SMA, Target 50 stopped trading 8-28-07, Target 60, Ultimate Trader, UT2, Wave Rider stopped trading on 4/25/08 |
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| | In response to post by jean-marc Garcia of 8/15/07 (7:01) What is very funy here is none performer vendors giving advice to well performer vendor.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (11:09) | |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 8/15/07 (10:18) Ross does that everyday.
While I don't always agree with Ross, I don't know that he has ever
told a vendor what to trade. Ross' complaints are 1) over-leverage and
2) unsubstantiated claims. That's nearly 100% of his beefs. Show me
on case where he said System X should be short XYZ. Or out of ABC
because the trend is this or that.
In this case the complainer is saying Si is A) trading the wrong thing
and/or B) trading it against the trend. What I want to know is: what
degree of trend does he want Si to trade? Hourly, daily, weekly, or
monthly? By most accounts the weekly and monthly BP trend is still
up. The daily and hourly are down.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Rick Haines ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (12:08) | |
| Systems: | RPH, RPH Revised, RPH2, Conservative Growth, Diversified ETF Timer, Extreme Trader, rydex 500, rydex qqqq, self directed 401 timer, SMA, Target 50 stopped trading 8-28-07, Target 60, Ultimate Trader, UT2, Wave Rider stopped trading on 4/25/08 |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/15/07 (11:09) While I don't always agree with Ross, I don't know that he has ever
told a vendor what to trade. Ross' complaints are 1) over-leverage and
...
See entire
Sam I was in reference to the fact Ross belittles signals that far outperform his own. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (12:22) | |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 8/15/07 (12:08) Sam I was in reference to the fact Ross belittles signals that far outperform his own.
> Ross belittles signals...
Again I agree Ross is overly negative at times, but
he does not criticize "signals".
He picks at what he perceives to be excess leverage,
"hold and hope" trading where losses are not controlled,
and vendors that make exaggerated or unsubstantiated
claims.
If you mean a "signal" = a "system" then....OK. But understand
the types of complaints ARE very different. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (16:44) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 8/15/07 (12:08) Sam I was in reference to the fact Ross belittles signals that far outperform his own.
I agree. He doesn't understand that Leverage is a double edged sword. He does not criticize unsubstantiated claims consistently. Observe he did nothing when a certain vendor made unsubstantiated claims that he turned a pro in 1987 and started trading in 1965 etc. etc., and that vendor is handling clients business and so is not able to sell signals at C2 etc., etc., |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (16:48) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 8/15/07 (10:18) Ross does that everyday.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (19:21) | |
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| | In response to post by jean-marc Garcia of 8/15/07 (7:01) What is very funy here is none performer vendors giving advice to well performer vendor.
Look, why don't you deal with my arguments rather than pointing to my system, which is not a forex system, is purely experimental and has no subscribers. Just because I have set up an experimental set up trading in oil futures does not mean it disqualifies me from commenting on popular systems. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (19:23) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 8/15/07 (16:44) I agree. He doesn't understand that Leverage is a double edged sword. He does not criticize unsubstantiated claims cons...
See entire
> Observe he did nothing when a certain vendor made unsubstantiated claims that he turned a pro in 1987 and started trading in 1965 etc. etc.,
What do these "claims" matter? I'm not selling a system here. Moreover,
I've stipulated I don't claim any trading expertise or skill.
Anyway, here is a quiz to see how long YOU'VE been around.
1) The S&P had a chart book circa 1965. What was the approximate size, shape, layout and color?
2) There was a popular chart book service circa the 1980's. What
was the name of the service?
3) What was the intraday high for gold for the week ending 12-18-87?
4) There were two independent "real time" futures data vendors circa 1985-1987 popular with brokers and other pros. Which services were they?
5) How was the data delivered pre-sat, pre-net?
6) During the 1987 crash what was a typical data delay and
average tick during fast trading for the S&P? What was the "official" exchange name for that condition? What was the dollar amount of
those ticks circa 1987?
7) What was the precursor to TradeStation? Who are the original principles for TradeStation? First and last names please.
8) What famous trader/programmer was banned by those principles
from the first TradeStation online forum? What was the company called
circa the early 1990's?
9) Aside from sat, how was market data distributed in the early
1990's?
Please Pmail me or give Pal 24 hours. I'm curious how much of
a newbie he really is. My guess is he'll flunk my little historical
quiz.
>and that vendor is handling clients business and so is not able to sell signals at C2 etc., etc.,
I'm not a vendor. I'm not selling systems, signals, etc. Any idiot can see that. So why would "unsubstantiated claims" be an issue anyway?
It's not like I'm claiming "one of the very few robust methods (system+trading style+strategy) at C2" or that I was charging $999/mo.
for that service. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (19:24) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/15/07 (11:09) While I don't always agree with Ross, I don't know that he has ever
told a vendor what to trade. Ross' complaints are 1) over-leverage and
...
See entire
"In this case the complainer is saying Si is A) trading the wrong thing
and/or B) trading it against the trend. What I want to know is: what
degree of trend does he want Si to trade? Hourly, daily, weekly, or
monthly?"
I don't WANT Si to trade anything. He can trade what he decides. It is his system. I am merely voicing my opinion on certain trades which I believe to be poor and suicidal. Others may have a different view. I am not going short Yen any time soon, but that is my personal decision. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (19:29) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/15/07 (19:23) > Observe he did nothing when a certain vendor made unsubstantiated claims that he turned a pro in 1987 and started trading in 1965 etc. etc.,
...
See entire
I disagree. You are still nothing but a funny, loud mouthed, yellow, clueless, parasitic, evading, criminal (whose sole purpose at C2 is to steal the secrets of successful trading systems (by re-engineering) without even having to pay for it), moron of a stupid system vendor chicken that is clucking that it is the master trader, even though its one lousy clueless trade under its belt is a loser and doesn't make sense and it can't even beat the S&P 500 (100% born loser)....
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (19:51) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 8/15/07 (19:29) I disagree. You are still nothing but a funny, loud mouthed, yellow, clueless, parasitic, evading, criminal (whose sole...
See entire
> You are still nothing but a funny, loud mouthed, yellow, clueless, parasitic, evading, criminal .....
You make the world a brighter place....
> (whose sole purpose at C2 is to steal the secrets of successful trading systems (by re-engineering) without even having to pay for it),
Believe me, I've looked at your "secrets of successful trading systems". They are safe. No pro in the world would trade your "system". Seriously, I see exactly what you are doing. It is worthless crap. You couldn't pay me to trade it.
We need newbies like you in the market. Keep trading! And please keep giving other new traders advice! |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (19:54) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/15/07 (19:51) > You are still nothing but a funny, loud mouthed, yellow, clueless, parasitic, evading, criminal .....
You make the world a brighter place.......
See entire
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (20:18) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 8/15/07 (19:54) Sour grapes!
> Sour grapes!
You mean I wish I could average 127% max DD? You are right!
I doubt I could do that. In the real world we must stop @ 100%.
You win the prize. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (20:24) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/15/07 (20:18) > Sour grapes!
You mean I wish I could average 127% max DD? You are right!
I doubt I could do that. In the real world we must stop @ 100%.
You win the prize.
I disagree. You are nothing but a funny, loud mouthed, yellow, clueless, parasitic, evading, criminal (whose sole purpose at C2 is to steal the secrets of successful trading systems (by re-engineering) without even having to pay for it), moron of a stupid system vendor chicken that is clucking that it is the master trader, even though its one lousy clueless trade under its belt is a loser and doesn't make sense and it can't even beat the S&P 500 (100% born loser).... |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/15/07 (21:13) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 8/15/07 (20:24) I disagree. You are nothing but a funny, loud mouthed, yellow, clueless, parasitic, evading, criminal (whose sole purpo...
See entire
You make the world a brighter place. Thanks for your opinion.
Hey, since I know you are an experienced trader, what was the
average $ tick during the wilder drops in 1987? |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 8/16/07 (6:37) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 8/15/07 (5:18) Si is at it again. Going, again and again, against the the trend of the carry trades unwinding. He says his is a contr...
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Another GPB/JPY trade stopped out within 55 minutes. Must be record time. As I previously stated, I am not executing these trades any longer, which has already saved me some money. But who am I to comment? I have a poorly performing experimental system focusing on spreads in oil futures. That disqualifies me from commenting on someone elese's suicidal strategy. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sean Mathews ( C2 Score: 955) |
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| When: | 8/16/07 (7:54) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 8/16/07 (6:37) Another GPB/JPY trade stopped out within 55 minutes. Must be record time. As I previously stated, I am not executing t...
See entire
THIS IS JUST A GENERAL OPINION... The bottom line is 'if you dont like the system or the drawdowns or the losing trades, dont subscribe to the system...' no need to offer advice as we can see from the great performance until now that the vedor knows exactly what he is doing'! just do your own thing by either sitting out the rough or staying in, let the vendor get on with the trading without the distractions of differing opinions of which all - or none may be correct....... |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 8/16/07 (8:44) | |
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| | In response to post by Sean Mathews of 8/16/07 (7:54) THIS IS JUST A GENERAL OPINION... The bottom line is 'if you dont like the system or the drawdowns or the losing trades,...
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Agree to what you say, but I dislike the constant replies of "shut up and unsubscribe if you don't like it" if anyone dares to criticise a system vendor. On that basis, surely we do not need any discussion forums at all. It is up to the system vendor whether or not he reads the contributions to the forum or lets them influence his trading. Surely though, it must be allowed for subscribers and others to exchange opinions amongst themselves.
Be that as it may, I think I will unsusbcribe. VN Forex Club looked for a while like system that was able to consistently make money. As with so many other systems on C2, once the markets changed, the system's success evaporated. In my view, which may well be proven wrong, VN Forex Club will never recover, because the vendor's trading style is suited to particular market conditions, which now do not exist any more. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/16/07 (12:16) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 8/15/07 (19:24) "In this case the complainer is saying Si is A) trading the wrong thing
and/or B) trading it against the trend. What I want to know is: what
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> I don't WANT Si to trade anything.
> not going short Yen
OK, respectfully, you are telling what NOT to trade.
You are probably right, but nonetheless, you are suggesting
he not be short the Yen. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Reinhard Schu ( C2 Score: 958) |
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| When: | 8/16/07 (13:48) | |
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| | In response to post by Reinhard Schu of 8/16/07 (6:37) Another GPB/JPY trade stopped out within 55 minutes. Must be record time. As I previously stated, I am not executing t...
See entire
Another Yen trade bites the dust. I am glad I am staying away. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/17/07 (11:57) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/15/07 (19:23) > Observe he did nothing when a certain vendor made unsubstantiated claims that he turned a pro in 1987 and started trading in 1965 etc. etc.,
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Not a single taker to my "quiz"? I'm I the only old fart here?
>Anyway, here is a quiz to see how long YOU'VE been around.
> 1) The S&P had a chart book circa 1965. What was the approximate size, shape, layout and color?
The S&P chart book circa 1965 had a landscape layout, about
8" by 5". Red and black highlights, text, and charts.
>2) There was a popular chart book service circa the 1980's. What
was the name of the service?
CTS: Commodity Trend Service. (keep in mind there was no internet)
>3) What was the intraday high for gold for the week ending 12-18-87?
502.30 (source CTS charts).
>4) There were two independent "real time" futures data vendors circa 1985-1987 popular with brokers and other pros. Which services were they?
CGQ and FuturesSource.
>5) How was the data delivered pre-sat, pre-net?
Dedicated phone line. $150+ a month just for the line, much
less data fees, chart service, etc.
>6) During the 1987 crash what was a typical data delay and
average tick during fast trading for the S&P? What was the "official" exchange name for that condition? What was the dollar amount of
those ticks circa 1987?
Data was often delayed 30-90 seconds+. The exchanges called
this Fast Market Conditions. S&P was $500 a big point. The S&P
was trading in 3 point ticks! So we were seeing $1500 ticks which
could be delayed over a minute. Imagine trading that!
>7) What was the precursor to TradeStation? Who are the original principles for TradeStation? First and last names please.
SystemWriter. Bill and Ralph Cruz.
>8) What famous trader/programmer was banned by those principles
from the first TradeStation online forum? What was the company called
circa the early 1990's?
Mark Brown. Omega Research.
>9) Aside from sat, how was market data distributed in the early
1990's?
Cable. The net was still slow and spotty.
An aside to this was a news story circa 1987 that a "super conductor"
had been discovered. A means to transmit and store energy at nearly
100% efficiency. It never panned out. Ironically there was a super conductor right under our noses. A super conductor for information:
the internet. That one worked out pretty well.
No super conductor yet, but progress:
http://www.sciencentral.com/articles/view.php3?type=article&article_id=218392803 |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Hans Hansen ( C2 Score: 982) |
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| When: | 8/17/07 (12:31) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/17/07 (11:57) Not a single taker to my "quiz"? I'm I the only old fart here?
>Anyway, here is a quiz to see how long YOU'VE been around....
See entire
"No super conductor yet, but progress:
http://www.sciencentral.com/articles/view.php3?type=article&article_id=218392803";
Are you confusing superconductors with supercapacitors? That article was on the latter.
Superconductors do exist and are being used in special applications. The problem is that all existing superconducting materials only work at extreme cold temperatures.
Supercapacitors have been around for sometime, but that article shows that there has been some significant improvement in this area. Some desktop computers use them for backup power to keep the real time clock running when the computer is shut off. A 10 Farad supercapacitor will keep modern low current ICs powered for months. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 8/17/07 (12:43) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/17/07 (11:57) Not a single taker to my "quiz"? I'm I the only old fart here?
>Anyway, here is a quiz to see how long YOU'VE been around....
See entire
:-) There is a famous psychological experiment that shows that people look smarter when you let them answer the questions to their own quiz. Obviously there is a bias here, because no one is going to put up a quiz question if he doesn't know the answer himself. So the score will always be 10 out of 10. Observers know this, but on average they do not adjust their estimates enough to correct for this bias.
> So we were seeing $1500 ticks which
could be delayed over a minute. Imagine trading that!
Interesting, indeed. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/17/07 (13:10) | |
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| | In response to post by Hans Hansen of 8/17/07 (12:31) "No super conductor yet, but progress:
http://www.sciencentral.com/articles/view.php3?type=article&article_id=218392803"
...
See entire
> Are you confusing superconductors with supercapacitors?
No. I understand the difference, but as a practical matter this
research in supercapacitors, and the potential improvements in
battery efficiency, may have a similar effect.
> Superconductors do exist...
The jist of the story circa 1987 was that they had made a break through
to make widespread use of superconductors possible....as far as my
memory banks recall. Anyway, the point is the internet *is* a widely
used "superconductor" and it didn't get much press circa 1987. |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/17/07 (13:17) | |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 8/17/07 (12:43) :-) There is a famous psychological experiment that shows that people look smarter when you let them answer the questions to their own quiz. Obviously there is a bias here, because no one is going to put up a quiz question if he doesn't know the answer himself. So the score will always be 10 out of 10. Observers know this, but on average they do not adjust their estimates enough to correct for this bias....
See entire
> :-) There is a famous psychological experiment that shows that people look smarter when you let them answer the questions to their own quiz.
I don't know that you have to be smart to get 100% on my quiz...you just
had to be there. Pal suggested I was lying about my experience.... Funny though, why would Iie about being an old fart? I wish I was http://17...or even 34.
If I was going to lie, or try to look smart, I would have told you about all
the puts I bought in early October 1987 ;-))).
If the quiz makes me look smart, hey, I'll take it! |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Hans Hansen ( C2 Score: 982) |
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| When: | 8/17/07 (13:29) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/17/07 (13:10) > Are you confusing superconductors with supercapacitors?
No. I understand the difference, but as a practical matter this
...
See entire
"The jist of the story circa 1987 was that they had made a break through to make widespread use of superconductors possible....as far as my memory banks recall. Anyway, the point is the internet *is* a widely used "superconductor" and it didn't get much press circa 1987. "
Yes, I remember an article from quite a few years ago that they thought they were on a path to finding room temperature superconductors.
I'm dusting off a real old brain cell here, so this might not be quite accurate: Didn't some of the later Cray supercomputers use some superconducting circuitry? I know that they had to be cooled with liquid nitrogen, and I think that was the reason why. Real practical: "Honey, my computer overheated and crashed again. Can you bring me a new bottle of liquid N2?"
RE the supercapacitors: A few years ago I hooked up a 5 farad supercapacitor to the lighting circuit in the caboose of a toy train. When the train was running, the lights were powered by the track power. But when you stopped the train, the lights would stay lit for a half hour or so. The problem with today's supercapacitor technology is that there is considerable internal resistance in the devices which makes them unsuitable for high current applications like automobiles. Maybe this new research will solve that.
OK, OK, back to investment topics....... |
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 8/17/07 (13:40) | |
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| | In response to post by Hans Hansen of 8/17/07 (13:29) "The jist of the story circa 1987 was that they had made a break through to make widespread use of superconductors possible....as far as my memory banks recall. Anyway, the point is the internet *is* a widely used "superconductor" and it didn't get much press circa 1987. "
...
See entire
> The problem with today's supercapacitor technology is that there is considerable internal resistance in the devices which makes them unsuitable for high current applications like automobiles. Maybe this new research will solve that.
Dunno. Ford is a partner with MIT on this one. Clearly you know more on
this topic than me, but I do find it fascinating. I think battery technology
is the key to making the entire array of alt-energy (from solar to electric cars) practical.... it would be a "funny mental" I would be willing to take
a flier on if it seemed someone had a legit break through. Trying to get my
genius son off his chat boards and video games and thinking about this one so he can become a trillionaire.
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| Subject: | Stop going against the trend |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 8/17/07 (15:15) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 8/17/07 (13:17) > :-) There is a famous psychological experiment that shows that people look smarter when you let them answer the questions to their own quiz....
See entire
"Smart" was the wrong word. Their level of knowledge is over-rated in that situation. Anyway, it just reminded me of that experiment, it was not my intention to accuse you of deliberate manipulation. The experiment is not so well-known that a non-psychologist would know of it. |
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