This is not to say that we can predict the market.

Since your 3 systems basically net out to zero, I would basically agree that you cannot predict the market... But neither can almost anyone else...

Thank you Index for your continuing interest in Trade the Odds – although I am beginning to get the feeling that your comments are not always that constructive.

I agree that we cannot predict the market - but we can have educated guesses in order to improve our luck. We started building short positions about a month ago and are still waiting for the drop. The points of the first post are as they are.

There are many factors that determine success in trading. 1 is having a successful plan and sticking to it over the long term. Another is being good with numbers. You may need to check your calculator with regard to your figures. Please remember that the maximum you can lose on 1 account is 100%.

We have 2 systems with longer holding times. Both of these trade stocks. The 2 stock trading systems are as follows:-

Trade the odds which started out with $100k and is currently up $90k for a return to date of 90%

Look at Value started out with $10k and is currently up $7,600 or 76%

Trade the Odds Forex trades forex in the short term and started with $10k. It currently is down to $5,700 or a drop of 43%. To date this is a very poor performer.

However 90 + 76 – 43 = 123. To get an average of 3 you divide by (yes, you guessed it) 3. The resulting figure is 41% which is the average gain should you have started at the beginning of each of our systems.

Also if you invested in the 3 systems you would have invested $120,000. Your balance would now show $211,900 or a return of 76% for the overall performance to date.

Please check my figures. I may have made a mistake but I think figures between 41 and 76% on average are closer to the mark.

We can manipulate figures all day but for those of lesser ability with numbers a calculator is an invaluable aid.

However 90 + 76 – 43 = 123. To get an average of 3 you divide by (yes, you guessed it) 3. The resulting figure is 41%

That is NOT how you average performances. If a system value falls by half and you use 50% and one doubles, you use 100%, that is quite inaccurate. The reality is that down 50% and up 100% are exactly equivalent.

your comments are not always that constructive.

I am responding, because your comments are not always that accurate. You have an unwarranted optimistic view of your abilities.

Your post was insinuating some special abilities on your part, which your C2 equity curves clearly, dismiss.

So far, your 3 systems have not shown any predictive value. Neither is it fair to potential subs when you ignore dog systems and focus on the systems that went up.

Possibly except in the case where there's a statistically insignificant amount of trades, and, even then, should be compared to the S&P.

We all have special abilities Index – including your good self.

The 2 stocks systems are not designed to predict – just simply to get in and wait for what, in the majority of cases, is inevitable. Ie. The rise of massively oversold stocks and the pullback of massively overbought stocks.

The forex system works on a different basis – obviously currently not successful.

We can give an educated guess when the market has a good chance of falling – and that is all that it is – a better than average guess at the odds of falling. When a stock is overbought (as many are at the moment) they can stay going up for a substantial period of time. Eventually gravity comes in to play and most fall rapidly once gravity gets a grip. We position ourselves to ride out the time when others are being stopped out so we can be ready on day 1 of the inevitable fall. So far we have been building this position for 6 weeks and it has gone against us for 6 weeks.

We tend to get an initial large gain from the first 3 or 4 days of falling (in the case of overbought stocks) and then about the same again over a period of 2 to 4 weeks.

This works well in a normal market. It is working exceptionally well in this market when the fall of the market corresponds to the fall in a large number of suitable stocks. Everything is exaggerated.

An ability? We spend a lot of time analysing and have a better system than many. It will never have a straight line like many like to see but it will continue to outperform most as it has done so far. However I would say our trading is less understood than most, certainly not accepted by many but it is almost always successful over the long run.

After our note drawing attention to a possible fall, which was before the market opened yesterday, we got a substantial fall. Some would say is the first day of the next downleg for the markets and only time will show this.

However the fact is that this account benefited by over $20,000 to new highs for the system yesterday. In our opinion the odds are good that the next month will see a further $50,000+ added to the equity of the account. It is possible that now is the right time for falling stocks and if so “trade the odds” is definitely the right place.

Good luck

Keep in mind, I do not seek to complain about anyone personally, but C2 is not about vendor claims. It is about "walk-forward" testing, track records, auditing, rigourous statistic analysis, subscriber and "My Analyst" reviews, looking at ALL a vendor's systems, and many other things. C2 is about shining sunlight on a system to see what it exposes. To verify in real time, whether the vendor really has something to offer to subs. I even see vendors advertising systems that only have a few trades or are only active a few days.

My problems or arguments are mainly with vendors who promote their back tests (useless), are confident in their future performance (unwarranted, as almost all C2 die quickly), crow based on a minimal record, use deceptive practices, mislead newbie traders, etc. etc.