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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711 ) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (4:23) | |
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| | Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2.
Has anyone found any system at C2 which took full advantage of the crash?
thanks,
Panu |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Dmitri Podkopaev ( C2 Score: 950) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (5:35) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (4:23) Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2....
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Please look at DPRussell. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (5:44) | |
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| | In response to post by Dmitri Podkopaev of 3/07/07 (5:35) Please look at DPRussell.
Yes, congratulations! Great short on 27th. However, unfortunately you got stopped out half of your position before the decline started.
Panu |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Dmitri Podkopaev ( C2 Score: 950) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (6:17) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (5:44) Yes, congratulations! Great short on 27th. However, unfortunately you got stopped out half of your position before the decline started.
Panu
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (6:22) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (4:23) Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2....
See entire
I don't see why it would be considered "big winners of the decline" pm the 27th. Anyone who happened to be short that day was lucky, not a big winner It was not a predictable event, it was a reaction to the chinese market 10% drop |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Rick Haines ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (7:24) | |
| Systems: | RPH, RPH Revised, RPH2, Conservative Growth, Diversified ETF Timer, Extreme Trader, rydex 500, rydex qqqq, self directed 401 timer, SMA, Target 50 stopped trading 8-28-07, Target 60, Ultimate Trader, UT2, Wave Rider stopped trading on 4/25/08 |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (4:23) Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2....
See entire
All 3 of my positions on target 60 were short. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (7:29) | |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 3/07/07 (7:24) All 3 of my positions on target 60 were short.
Great, I'll add you to My Analysts. Thanks. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (7:35) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (6:22) I don't see why it would be considered "big winners of the decline" pm the 27th. Anyone who happened to be...
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One view of trading systems is that they are all based on pure luck. Other view is that it's possible to catch a move when it starts and let the profits run as long as the move continues. Actually sounds very easy and straight forward to me (which it of course is not but should not be impossible either). |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Rick Haines ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (7:46) | |
| Systems: | RPH, RPH Revised, RPH2, Conservative Growth, Diversified ETF Timer, Extreme Trader, rydex 500, rydex qqqq, self directed 401 timer, SMA, Target 50 stopped trading 8-28-07, Target 60, Ultimate Trader, UT2, Wave Rider stopped trading on 4/25/08 |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (7:35) One view of trading systems is that they are all based on pure luck. Other view is that it's possible to catch a move wh...
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Panu your last post to me indicates you are looking for someone that can predict what will happen in the market. I can't trade that way because I am not smart enough to know what will happen next. I develop trading signals that win most of the time. So it turns into a numbers game. If you can win 65% (for example) of the time you can make good money if the wins are roughly the same or bigger than the losses. For me trading can't be a game of trying to guess what to do next. It is a rather boring method of following a tried and true signal that can make you good money in the long run. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (7:52) | |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 3/07/07 (7:46) Panu your last post to me indicates you are looking for someone that can predict what will happen in the market. I can'...
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I thought predicting what will happen in the market is what trading is all about. When you add money management to that, you have a system. Have I missed the point? |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Rick Haines ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (8:00) | |
| Systems: | RPH, RPH Revised, RPH2, Conservative Growth, Diversified ETF Timer, Extreme Trader, rydex 500, rydex qqqq, self directed 401 timer, SMA, Target 50 stopped trading 8-28-07, Target 60, Ultimate Trader, UT2, Wave Rider stopped trading on 4/25/08 |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (7:52) I thought predicting what will happen in the market is what trading is all about. When you add money management to that, you have a system. Have I missed the point?
I call it trading by guess and by golly. You see some really hot market gurus that lately have known where the market is going. But none of them were in the spot light just a couple of years ago. The hot market gurus that were predicting the market accuratly a couple of years ago have blown themselvs out and are not longer in the spot light. By pretending to know where the market is going you are setting yourself up to get fleeced by the real insiders. For me I have to find a mechanical system that works well and have the discipline to use it. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (8:23) | |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 3/07/07 (8:00) I call it trading by guess and by golly. You see some really hot market gurus that lately have known where the market i...
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Your mechanical system does not predict the market? What does it do then? |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (8:32) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (7:52) I thought predicting what will happen in the market is what trading is all about. When you add money management to that, you have a system. Have I missed the point?
"Have I missed the point? "
Yes |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Rick Haines ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (8:34) | |
| Systems: | RPH, RPH Revised, RPH2, Conservative Growth, Diversified ETF Timer, Extreme Trader, rydex 500, rydex qqqq, self directed 401 timer, SMA, Target 50 stopped trading 8-28-07, Target 60, Ultimate Trader, UT2, Wave Rider stopped trading on 4/25/08 |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (8:23) Your mechanical system does not predict the market? What does it do then?
It wins about 70% of the time in the long run. I should tell you the first week of Feb I changed the trading criteria on both of my systems. The timing model I am now using with target 50 will win about 70% of the time. Same with target 60, It is like watching paint dry. A steady 30 to 50% annually. The signal target 50 for example the IWM signal is calculated using the new high new low ratio of the NYSE. The QQQQ signal is calculated using the volitility index for the Nasdaq 100, Both totally different and both win about 70% of the time. Combined they give you a signal that is a little diverse and not based totally on just one indicator on just one index. I am leaving town for a couple of days I would welcome you to write me at rhaines8@houston.rr.com. We can continue this discussion after I get home using emails. Thanks and
Good Luck |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (8:42) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (8:32) "Have I missed the point? "
Yes
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (8:46) | |
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| | In response to post by Rick Haines of 3/07/07 (8:34) It wins about 70% of the time in the long run. I should tell you the first week of Feb I changed the trading criteria o...
See entire
How do you make 70% winners and "A steady 30 to 50% annually" without predicting the market?
70% winners can maybe be done by not using stop loss and cutting profits short but "steady 30 to 50%" profit requires some prediction in my opinion. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (8:54) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (8:42) tell me more
Nobody "predicts" the market:
1) Take a look at the high failure rate of C2 systems. People THINK they can predict the market
2) Notice that many "GOOD" systems got slammed in mid May 2006 and late Feb 2007. Those who did well, claiming they saw the drop coming are full of hot air; no one "predicted" the Chinese market drop on THAT day. They just happened to ride their short on that day.
3) For the few systems that happen to do well over time, they most likely have identified a few setups that seem to lead to certain short-term price behavior. Such as buying dips/selling rallies, seasonal behavior, following the longterm bullish nature of stock markets, and other techniques etc. AND, they probably use good money management.
If they truly "predicted," they wouldn't have so many losing trades!!! There are no crystal balls here. When someone tells you they have a magical ability to see whats coming in a few months, a track record of ONE futures prediction is statistically insignificant. Show me someone who makes 28 calls out of 30 three months out, and you will have my attention... |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (9:01) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (8:54) Nobody "predicts" the market:
1) Take a look at the high failure rate of C2 systems. People THINK they can predict the market
...
See entire
You mean this is not prediction:
"For the few systems that happen to do well over time, they most likely have identified a few setups that seem to lead to certain short-term price behavior"
What is it then?
I don't think anyone believes someone can predict the market with 100% accuracy. 51% accuracy should lead to positive results and - again - that's what trading systems are all about. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (9:13) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (9:01) You mean this is not prediction:
"For the few systems that happen to do well over time, they most likely have identified a few setups that seem to lead to certain short-term price behavior"
...
See entire
"You mean this is not prediction:"
No, it is not. It is finding a short term market inefficiency that may have some probabilistic tendencies.
You need to distinguish from the base meaning of prediction as "an act of forecasting" from "an act of successfully forecasting."
I am addressing the LATTER meaning. Traders are trying to exploit short term inefficiencies. Too many people tout themselves as successful predictors of market behavior. They don't KNOW it will be going up or down a month from now. But there are some occassions where over the next day or two, that when the market is in a certain setup, it tends to move in a certain direction a bit. But it may take good money management to wring out that profit. And there can be an awful lot of losses along the way. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (9:29) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (4:23) Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2....
See entire
Just the facts:
System: Magnum (Conservative) Futures:
STO 2 NKH7 NIKKEI 225 INDEX 17530 2/28/07 9:00 BTC 2
16700
3/7/07 9:00
$0
Fix
Low
$8,300
STO 1 @YMH7 MINI-SIZE DOW ($5MUL) 12793 2/20/07 22:46
BTC 1
12195
3/6/07 21:15
($45)
Fix
Low
$2,990
STO 3 @NQH7 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX 1757.25
2/27/07 22:50
BTC 3
1742.50
3/6/07 21:15
($670)
Fix
Low
$885
System: Magnum (Conservative) Stocks (Just a few of my short positions):
STO 50 DIA 127.40 2/22/07 9:30 0 122.06 (19:29t) $6,370 $9,421 $0
($9)
Fix
Low
$267
Close
Reverse
STO 29 SPY 146.05 2/22/07 9:30 0 139.70 (19:59t)
$4,235 $6,261 $0
($10)
Fix
Low
$184
Close
Reverse
STO 62 IVV 146.23 2/26/07 10:07 0 140.03 (16:15t)
$9,066 $13,407 $0
($11)
Fix
Low
$384
Close
STO 20 MDY 155.24 2/27/07 9:30 0 149.45 19:41t)
$3,104 $4,599 $0
($4)
Fix
Low
$116
Close
Reverse |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 998) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:12) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (8:54) Nobody "predicts" the market:
1) Take a look at the high failure rate of C2 systems. People THINK they can predict the market
...
See entire
"no one "predicted" the Chinese market drop on THAT day. They just happened to ride their short on that day."
The true trigger was on Feb. 20, the Chinese market drop just accelerated the move, all this had been set up since Oct.26 and before. What happened between Feb. 20 and Oct. 26 made a correction inevitable, only something very strong could have delayed it.
Of course this is after the fact, but keep an eye on Turning Points over the next year or so and you might just be amazed.
Turning Points sold mini S&P 500, Feb. 22, but since no trades have been turned loose yet, it was ended Feb.25. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:17) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (9:29) Just the facts:
System: Magnum (Conservative) Futures:
STO 2 NKH7 NIKKEI 225 INDEX 17530 2/28/07 9:00 BTC 2
...
See entire
Palsun
Why are you harping on a system with a 10 day track record???
Just the facts? OK – lets examine some Palsun systems:
Z1 (V. Agg.) Test – took system from $100K down to $0 and then to MINUS $100K at one point. “Bankruptcy court.”
Mosaik (E. Agg.) Test – took system from $100K down to about $25K at one point. How many subs would have stayed?
Z3 (Prudent) Test – took system from $100K down to about $36K at one point. Very prudent.
Midas (Prudent) Test – may have set a record for the number of journeys above $300K and down near $100K again. Watch out for concussions and whiplash… Great example of how NOT to manage your gains.
Magnum (Conservative) Stocks – sideways so far…
In short, Palsun is mostly great at bankrupting you, chasing you out of the trading game due to your newfound schizophrenic fits, or losing your profits.
(From his system page):“listen to no one except your signals.” Palsun does this well; he listens to no one.
(sorry Sam, I saw it first)…
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Science Trader ( C2 Score: 266) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:17) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (4:23) Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2....
See entire
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:19) | |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 3/07/07 (10:12) "no one "predicted" the Chinese market drop on THAT day. They just happened to ride their short on that day."
...
See entire
Always interested in general commodities systems, Frank
But why did you let your other 2 systems die? |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:19) | |
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| | In response to post by futurm * of 3/07/07 (10:12) "no one "predicted" the Chinese market drop on THAT day. They just happened to ride their short on that day."
...
See entire
Always interested in general commodities systems, Frank
But why did you let your other 2 systems die? |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:22) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (10:17) Palsun
Why are you harping on a system with a 10 day track record???
Just the facts? OK – lets examine some Palsun systems:
...
See entire
>In short, Palsun is mostly great at bankrupting you, chasing you out of the trading game due to your newfound schizophrenic fits, or losing your profits.
I disagree. My methods have evolved over time. You must judge each method on its own merits. I'm sure Uncle Sam would agree. He is more reasonable than you... |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:25) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (6:22) I don't see why it would be considered "big winners of the decline" pm the 27th. Anyone who happened to be...
See entire
> Anyone who happened to be short that day was lucky, not a big winner
That's just not true. Well known mechanical systems that use breadth
and/or channel breakouts were either short coming in or got short in the
pre-opening breakdown.
> It was not a predictable event,
A well known Elliott Wave pontiff identified the "diagonal triangle" and
called for a sharp break days or weeks in advance. A friend of mine told me on a ski lift the afternoon before that he thought the market was ready to topple.
I agree the exact event was not predictable, but the fact that there was
a trading opportunity when the bottom of the wedge broke was "predictable".
There was even a Ken Roberts / Joe Ross 1-2-3 / 1-2-3 bear hook on the
NQ hourly charts. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:27) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (9:29) Just the facts:
System: Magnum (Conservative) Futures:
STO 2 NKH7 NIKKEI 225 INDEX 17530 2/28/07 9:00 BTC 2
...
See entire
> Just the facts:
With 9 or 10 systems odds are one might be short..... |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:35) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (10:22) >In short, Palsun is mostly great at bankrupting you, chasing you out of the trading game due to your newfound schizophrenic fits, or losing your profits....
See entire
ps: Also Magnum (Conservative) futures have made 57 trades. It is number of trades one should see, not the age. I might add that the number of trades generated by the method is not very large in any one market, ranging from about 1 to 2 trades per market. However, when you combine the trades into a single portfolio equity curve, as shown in the Fig. at the system details page at C2, there are 57 trades in all. That larger number of trades should give us confidence that the method has not been over-optimized.
Moreover, the fact that the same set of parameter values works well in over 20 different -- some correlated, some non-correlated -markets further increases the chances of the system holding up well in the future. Also note that the equity curve for the portfolio, as shown in Fig. at the system details page, is smoother and straighter than any of the other systems equity curves, also evidenced by a higher Sharpe Ratio -- one of the virtues of diversification.
Generally it is accepeted by statisticians, that a system that has
at least 30 trades could have statistically significant results.
More on this here:
http://www.adaptrade.com/Articles/article-sig.htm |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:39) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/07/07 (10:27) > Just the facts:
With 9 or 10 systems odds are one might be short.....
Sorry to disappoint you, Uncle Sam, Only 2 methods were short and only those 2 methods were trading (exclusively) futures or stocks...trust me... |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:41) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (10:17) Palsun
Why are you harping on a system with a 10 day track record???
Just the facts? OK – lets examine some Palsun systems:
...
See entire
(sorry Sam, I saw it first)…
I'm just working my way down...apologize for any redundancies. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:43) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (10:39) Sorry to disappoint you, Uncle Sam, Only 2 methods were short and only those 2 methods were trading (exclusively) futures or stocks...trust me...
> trust me...
I was born at night, but I wasn't born last night.... |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | futurm * ( C2 Score: 998) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:44) | |
| Systems: | New Turning Points, Turning Point, AQUA, Commodities P/X (Test System), Commodities Plus, Intensive Care, Lunar Cycles, Neotrends, no name, PLUM, Sparkling Future, STP 100, Turning Points |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (10:19) Always interested in general commodities systems, Frank
But why did you let your other 2 systems die?
One was a test system before test systems could be hidden, so I brought it back to profit and killed it.
One thing I have learned over time is each different type of trading requires work on getting into a correct state of mind, paper trading, real trading and here at C2. Here at C2 was a struggle for a while so I killed the system to start over. With turning points there has still been some struggle but not enough to cause frustration. At this point everything is feeling natural and good.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:45) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (10:35) ps: Also Magnum (Conservative) futures have made 57 trades. It is number of trades one should see, not the age. I mig...
See entire
"Generally it is accepeted by statisticians, that a system that has
at least 30 trades could have statistically significant results."
That is not true. No statistician would ever say that. Well, perhaps if he means "could have" as in "could have or could not have as well", but then he would not say "at least". |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:52) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/07/07 (10:43) > trust me...
I was born at night, but I wasn't born last night....
Well, show me the proof since you assert it. The onus of proof lies on those who assert the positive... |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (10:56) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (10:52) Well, show me the proof since you assert it. The onus of proof lies on those who assert the positive...
NO. The onus of proof are on those whose every assertion borders on the inane, the incredible, and the foolish.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (11:01) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (10:22) >In short, Palsun is mostly great at bankrupting you, chasing you out of the trading game due to your newfound schizophrenic fits, or losing your profits....
See entire
"I disagree. My methods have evolved over time. You must judge each method on its own merits. I'm sure Uncle Sam would agree. He is more reasonable than you..."
I have seen few people ever agree with you, who has seen the dozens of PPPs (Palsun Pontification Posts).
You respond as much as your own posts as you do to other's posts. When people make clearly relevant points against your words, you either go silent, go on for 20 paragraphs or change the subject.
Getting a meaningful response out of you, is like trying to pin down a drop of mercury with your thumb. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | traderr err ( C2 Score: 41) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (11:12) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (4:23) Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2....
See entire
Dear Panu,
Taurus is a system that was short on 27th. Actually the trade was the following:
STO 1
@ER2H7 E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
819.30 2/15/07 14:23
BTC 1
772.00 3/5/07 9:58
Max DD: ($1,260)
Profit: $4,730
Now, I will explain this trade: my system was short in ER2 since Feb. 15th. On 26th it was big in DD but it still indicated short.
Since the Princeton Model had predicted a large decline between Feb. 24th and 27th, I decided not to close the position and let it run for a while more.
As you can see, it was a profit of 47.3 ER2 points per contract.
Unfortunately, due to some bad FX trades which were simultaneously open, the equity curve does not show anything special.
Actually the system has underperformed the market until now due to three very big loses, which is no reason of pride for me.
However, in the meantime I made some changes which are improving the performance. The system signals are used for entries but closures are very often based on discretionary decisions. I decided to act that way because I saw that the system leaves far too many profits on the table between entry and exit signals.
We will see how the system performs in the future. right now I am doing a break until the stock and FX markets stop this unpredictable behaviour. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (11:12) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 3/07/07 (10:45) "Generally it is accepeted by statisticians, that a system that has
at least 30 trades could have statistically significant results."
...
See entire
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Panu Haaramo ( C2 Score: 711) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (11:14) | |
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| | In response to post by Science Trader of 3/07/07 (10:17) Hawk Fx
I'm talking about stock market now. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (11:14) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (10:56) NO. The onus of proof are on those whose every assertion borders on the inane, the incredible, and the foolish.
Thank you for asserting that you are inane, incredible, and foolish.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (11:20) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (10:52) Well, show me the proof since you assert it. The onus of proof lies on those who assert the positive...
>>> trust me...
>> I was born at night, but I wasn't born last night....
>Well, show me the proof ...
I'm not going to show you my birth certificate....but I do
think you should be impressed by my writing if you believe
I was born last night.
Oh! I can prove you have 9 systems. Is that what you mean? |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Pal Anand ( C2 Score: 988) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (11:29) | |
| Systems: | Direxion (FAS/FAZ), Direxion BGU/BGZ, Direxion DRN/DRV, Direxion DZK/DPK, Direxion EDC/EDZ, Direxion ERX/ERY, Direxion LBJ/LHB, Direxion MWJ/MWN, Direxion NUGT/DUST, Direxion SOXL/SOXS, Direxion TMF/TMV, Direxion TNA/TZA, Extreme Stocks, ProShares AGQ/ZSL, Proshares TQQQ/SQQQ, ProShares UCO/SCO, ProShares UGL/GLL, Proshares UPRO/SPXU, ProShares UUP/UDN, ProShares UVXY, ProShares UYM/SMN, ProShares XPP/FXP, System 78433109, System 1200737, System 13513226, System 14747274, System 14900604, System 17333270, System 18570303, System 21001636, System 22811602, System 25126348, System 25286922, System 25480083, System 26583686, System 26874100, System 28959109, System 30070387, System 30091398, System 30092309, System 32171590, System 33686814, System 36312421, System 39940733, System 49372097, System 51623361, System 56204818, System 59614452, System 62659351, System 63709256, System 64327252, System 64862505, System 65149161, System 65149202, System 66082786, System 69788609, System 69789319, System 74827691, System 76000954, System 76001024, System18339738 |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/07/07 (11:20) >>> trust me...
>> I was born at night, but I wasn't born last night....
>Well, show me the proof ......
See entire
No. Only 5 of my systems are active now. Of that 1 trades stocks, 1 futures, 1 forex and the other 2 both futures, the short positions of which are shown below, all short positions only exclusively (satisfied?):
Here are the other short positions in Mosaik (E. Agg.) Test:
STO 8 NKH7 NIKKEI 225 INDEX 17530 2/28/07 9:01
BTC 8
17085
3/7/07 9:00
$0
Fix
Low
$17,800
STO 3 @NQH7 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX 1758.92
2/27/07 23:01
BTC 3
1745.92
3/6/07 21:15
($1,020)
Fix
Low
$780
Method: Midas (Prudent) Test:
STO 2 NKH7 NIKKEI 225 INDEX 17530 2/28/07 9:09
BTC 2
16700
3/7/07 9:00
($100)
Fix
Low
$8,300
STO 1 @NQH7 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX 1764.50
2/28/07 9:01
BTC 1
1742.25
3/6/07 21:12
($370)
Fix
Low
$445 |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (12:18) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (11:29) No. Only 5 of my systems are active now. Of that 1 trades stocks, 1 futures, 1 forex and the other 2 both futures, the short positions of which are shown below, all short positions only exclusively (satisfied?):
...
See entire
> all short positions only exclusively (satisfied?)
Are you saying you made one good trade or two out
of your 11 systems? Anyway, you win.
Great job! You made a winning http://trade.....um, er, is it still
an open position? Aren't you the guy that wrote several
thousand pages about how open equity doesn't
exist? Or does open equity only count when it's a
profit? You need to get together with ES 3 points a day
and write a book on your new math. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (12:43) | |
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| | In response to post by Pal Anand of 3/07/07 (11:14) Thank you for asserting that you are inane, incredible, and foolish.
How can anyone ever overcome your brilliant responses? However, it was lacking the customary 1,000 word essay on "try to write something that avoids logic and impresses none." |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Lew Payne ( C2 Score: 911) |
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| When: | 3/07/07 (12:48) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/07/07 (6:22) I don't see why it would be considered "big winners of the decline" pm the 27th. Anyone who happened to be...
See entire
Ross - That's not entirely true. I was watching the night market, and the ES began a steady decline that "night before" as the Shanghai and Shenzhen day market began losing ground. As a result, I closed out my long positions early (before hitting my stops) and then went to sleep.
I'm now incorporating overseas market indices into my trade management system, so that this type of activity is automatically detected and acted upon next time. The indices of interest to me are:
China
Hong Kong
Japan
Singapore
Taiwan
Germany
Britain (London)
Any decline out of the ordinary (as defined by my averaging rules) will page me, day or night and block pending long opens from taking place.
History often repeats itself. While we cannot prevent it, we can at least be prepared the next time around. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Gary Richard Jr |
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| When: | 3/08/07 (10:46) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (4:23) Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2....
See entire
I found Grandma's system valuable.
System survive in the crash and made money with more then 5-10 trades. Amazing but system made money with long orders. ( I didn't found any shorts here). Just added to my analyst page. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | traderr err ( C2 Score: 41) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (17:47) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (4:23) Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2....
See entire
Hi all,
interesting to see. Two weeks are past. 2% down today... and the same systems that got burned on 2/27 got burned today again.
When are they going to learn that averaging down to eternity is a risky business?
Happy trades to all! |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Alpha Alpha ( C2 Score: 195) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (17:59) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (4:23) Many systems that I'm subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I'm trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2....
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My system "Indigo Futures System" went short 02/22/2007 (since inception) anticipating a trend reversal.
I started my system 02/21/2007 so it is a too short period to judge the system's performance.
In my opinion, the current market pattern of the major indices looks similar to the one exhibited last May. A correction in the range of 5%, a bounce towards the 50-day EMA and then another correction of 5-6%.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (19:34) | |
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| | In response to post by Alpha Alpha of 3/13/07 (17:59) My system "Indigo Futures System" went short 02/22/2007 (since inception) anticipating a trend reversal.
I started my system 02/21/2007 so it is a too short period to judge the system's performance....
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" My system "Indigo Futures System" went short 02/22/2007 (since inception) anticipating a trend reversal. I started my system 02/21/2007 so it is a too short period to judge the system's performance. "
Way too short a period. Being short going into the 27th (one decision point) is little better than blind luck... |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Jules Ellis |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (19:52) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/13/07 (19:34) " My system "Indigo Futures System" went short 02/22/2007 (since inception) anticipating a trend reversal. I started my system 02/21/2007 so it is a too short period to judge the system's performance. "
...
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Yes, but he answered the original question of Panu, litterally. Panu asked, he answered. You can't blame him for that. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (20:05) | |
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| | In response to post by Jules Ellis of 3/13/07 (19:52) Yes, but he answered the original question of Panu, litterally. Panu asked, he answered. You can't blame him for that.
I take issue with the "anticipating a trend reversal. " I mostly disagree with those claiming brilliant foresight to the downtrend.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (20:40) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/13/07 (20:05) I take issue with the "anticipating a trend reversal. " I mostly disagree with those claiming brilliant foresight to the downtrend.
Anyone with half a brain will tell you that the US economy is heading for a massive downtrend. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Alpha Alpha ( C2 Score: 195) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (20:53) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/13/07 (20:05) I take issue with the "anticipating a trend reversal. " I mostly disagree with those claiming brilliant foresight to the downtrend.
Do not misinterpret what I said in response to the original question :
1. The original poster asked whether there were any profitable systems during crash - my answer was to point out that my system was profitable during the crash.
2. I did not state or imply that I predicted the crash.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Bundle Trader ( C2 Score: 967) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (20:54) | |
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| | In response to post by Lew Payne of 3/07/07 (12:48) Ross - That's not entirely true. I was watching the night market, and the ES began a steady decline that "night before" as the Shanghai and Shenzhen day market began losing ground. As a result, I closed out my long positions early (before hitting my stops) and then went to sleep....
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It's certainly true that any non-news based systematic trader who ends up on the lucky side of a huge day is exactly that, lucky. Newer traders who were on the correct side of the 2/27 market event will no doubt continue to believe that the market is an astrology-like system, where what is going to happen is all accounted for and predicted by what has happened; and be happy that their system predicted things correctly. In trading, the most valuable lessons always come from failure.
For the rest, my thoughts on 2/27 are as follows:
My instinct is that, for systematic traders, adding the information that Lew brought up could possibly reduce the chances of some admittedly very selective events, such as 2/27/07. I certainly will be looking into it myself. Foreign market action continues to be more relevant to what takes place in the US markets, and it's worth quantifying in respect to your program.
That said, if your program is designed properly designed to take advantage of typical market inefficiencies, to my mind you should have a filter that eliminates trades for a certain period after atypical market movement. Markets become very unpredictable after such events, and relied-upon inefficiencies disappear. Ideally you should design systems with a filter like this in place, otherwise your program is at least partially selecting results from these primarily random periods.
I understand there are some traders that will disagree above statement.
For the rest, if the above sounds logical, and you wish to apply it:
First, you must define all of the above within your program parameters. Next, when applying it to your backtesting you must understand that it will make your results worse. That is a natural consequence of applying logic-based, real-world logic to your backtested system. On the other hand, it is very, very, very likely to save your trading account huge equity dips in the cold reality of out-of-sample trading.
My two cents, I thought I'd share.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:15) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (20:40) Anyone with half a brain will tell you that the US economy is heading for a massive downtrend.
Anyone with half a brain will tell you that you cannot make these kinds of predictions.
They predicted that Japanese manufacturing would bury the USA 20 years ago. Instead, the Japanese have suffered from many years of market stagnation. They kept interest rates near zero trying to get the thing to come to life.
A few years ago, they predicted that outsourcing of IT (computer) jobs would bring the USA to their knees. Instead, suddenly IT professionals have their choice of jobs, and salaries keep climbing steadily...
Gold bulls have been trumpeting the massive downtrend of the USA for nearly 30 years. And declaring $1000 gold was just around the corner. Anyone who was heavily invested in gold for these past few decades has lost a fortune in opportunity in the equities market.
And who was that Indian author who trumpeted the coming great depression in the USA (some 10-15 years ago)? Not to mention many other authors.
The alarmists keep ringing the bell, but the train keeps moving forward.
Yes if people keep saying over the next century, "massive downturn" we will experience slowdowns, recessions and likely a depression. It is called market cycles. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Bundle Trader ( C2 Score: 967) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:18) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (20:40) Anyone with half a brain will tell you that the US economy is heading for a massive downtrend.
I'd say anyone with half a brain can certainly see that is a likely outcome.
Only a fool would predict it. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Bundle Trader ( C2 Score: 967) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:26) | |
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| | In response to post by Alpha Alpha of 3/13/07 (20:53) Do not misinterpret what I said in response to the original question :
1. The original poster asked whether there were any profitable systems during crash - my answer was to point out that my system was profitable during the crash....
See entire
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:27) | |
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| | In response to post by Bundle Trader of 3/13/07 (21:18) I'd say anyone with half a brain can certainly see that is a likely outcome.
Only a fool would predict it.
And only a fool predicts that the sun will rise in the morning too? |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:29) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (21:27) And only a fool predicts that the sun will rise in the morning too?
The problem is when you confuse a fact with an opinion. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:34) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (21:27) And only a fool predicts that the sun will rise in the morning too?
I'll bow out of this conversation from here. I personaly think the very, very worst thing a trader can do is to get involved with forums. :-) Until I see Warren Buffet or George Soros posting on internet forums I'll make this my last post on any internet trading forum anywhere. Have a good evening everyone! David |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Bundle Trader ( C2 Score: 967) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:34) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (21:27) And only a fool predicts that the sun will rise in the morning too?
I mentioned Astrology, you use the Sun for your analogy. You made me "laugh out loud" for real.
The sun doesn't rise at a time that takes into account the combined opinions of millions of individual market participant's opinions.
That's why there's no "if the sun will rise tomorrow" futures ... get it? |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:40) | |
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| | In response to post by Bundle Trader of 3/13/07 (21:34) I mentioned Astrology, you use the Sun for your analogy. You made me "laugh out loud" for real.
The sun doesn't rise at a time that takes into account the combined opinions of millions of individual market participant's opinions....
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It was amazing, wasn't it? |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Bundle Trader ( C2 Score: 967) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:44) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (21:34) I'll bow out of this conversation from here. I personaly think the very, very worst thing a trader can do is to get inv...
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When you work for 100s of millions of dollars you tend to limit your thoughts to those who pay you to have them, or I'd think those paying would tend to feel ripped off.
That said, those two notables certainly have allowed many record interviews, and like all successful traders/investors they assert you're doomed to failure if you try to predict short-term trends, which they feel is impossible. Warren Buffet (aka, " Mr. buy & hold companies that are undervalued") is perhaps the worst example you could have brought up to defend your market prognostications.
Apparently you disagree with the two icons you brought into this conversation, but you've decided you're done here and that's clearly smart.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:46) | |
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| | In response to post by Bundle Trader of 3/13/07 (21:34) I mentioned Astrology, you use the Sun for your analogy. You made me "laugh out loud" for real.
The sun doesn't rise at a time that takes into account the combined opinions of millions of individual market participant's opinions....
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One more post................80% of currencey trades are made by 10 major banks, not 'millions of market participants'.
Secondly the economic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Lew Payne ( C2 Score: 911) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:51) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (21:46) One more post................80% of currencey trades are made by 10 major banks, not 'millions of market participants'.
...
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Secondly the economic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion. - David Nickerson
So is the eventual exhaustion and implosion of our sun. There... I saved you the trouble of bringing the sun (or stars) back into this thread. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (21:58) | |
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| | In response to post by Lew Payne of 3/13/07 (21:51) Secondly the economic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion. - David Nickerson
So is the eventual e...
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The current ecomonic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion.
You can quote CNN , Fox, Bloomberg etc. to counter that (I'm sure you will)
Also please continue to parrot every 'how to trade' internet site/book under the sun. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Eu New ( C2 Score: 965) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (22:11) | |
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| | In response to post by Bundle Trader of 3/13/07 (20:54) It's certainly true that any non-news based systematic trader who ends up on the lucky side of a huge day is exactly tha...
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Well, Dustin Dubia It's very grateful from you side to make the info publicly available. I agree with you/all yours point of view.
Only one question if you don't mind
Foreign market action continues to be more relevant to what takes place in the US markets, and it's worth quantifying in respect to your program.
When I have to have a sleep? lol First is Asia market - Second is Europe - Last one is the states. You have to analyze all the markets before the states bell. It's nearly impossible for retail trader.
Anyway, there are bunch of girls who went left after 2/27 and there will be bunch girls who will go left before the market stabilized.
The question isn't imho about profit, we're speaking about surviving in very unstable market. Just my 2c.
Eu
P.S. .... and yeah... there are billions of gurus who knows everything and can predict everything .... after the fact of course.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Bundle Trader ( C2 Score: 967) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (22:14) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (21:58) The current ecomonic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion.
You can quote CNN , Fox, Bloomberg etc. to counter that (I'm sure you will)
...
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I wonder why you aren't working for the world's financial firms that employ some of the smartest people in the world?
Those individuals admit that any modern economy is too complicated to predict accurately., and also that unforeseen shocks can and will happen against their predictions, that could also completely invalidate their predictions. All of these brain trusts can only make predictions, but you know where things are headed.
I noticed you couldn't help but bring the sun into it again -- very funny.
It's telling that we've had a very (to my mind, at least) recent event applies to all these market prognosticators. Did your model do well in the 9/11/01 scenario? If so, and you don't attribute that to blind luck ... enough said. Oh, your model predicted that? Take that logic down a few degrees, and there you go for 2/27/07 .. unless it also considers overnight date from foreign markets, at the very least.
I'm not slamming anyone's method, just one person's silly response.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Night Owl ( C2 Score: 713) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (22:27) | |
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| | In response to post by Bundle Trader of 3/13/07 (20:54) It's certainly true that any non-news based systematic trader who ends up on the lucky side of a huge day is exactly tha...
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Good post.
...but isn't this why we are model traders
Most models and certainly mine are designed with a certain mkt condition in mind. Therefore on 2/27, range trading type models were stopped, short term momentum models were already short from day before and breakout theory models went short intraday.
Very hard to design a model for all seasons (and then it is probably curve fit anyway)
If we are to stay in game, just cover bases... the holy grail is yet to be found |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Bundle Trader ( C2 Score: 967) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (22:28) | |
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| | In response to post by Eu New of 3/13/07 (22:11) Well, Dustin Dubia It's very grateful from you side to make the info publicly available. I agree with you/all yours point of view....
See entire
The question isn't imho about profit, we're speaking about surviving in very unstable market. Just my 2c.
It sounds like you're in agreement with everything I've said, but you've already stated that =)
Well, I don't know if you're a systematic trader (I think you are, but I'm not sure) -- but if so, those values you mentioned are available as readily as the price of any US stock issue from moment to moment, right? No need to disturb your so very much needed beauty sleep =) |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Eu New ( C2 Score: 965) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (22:48) | |
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| | In response to post by Bundle Trader of 3/13/07 (22:28) The question isn't imho about profit, we're speaking about surviving in very unstable market. Just my 2c.
It sounds like you're in agreement with everything I've said, but you've already stated that =)
...
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if so, those values you mentioned are available as readily as the price of any US stock issue from moment to moment, right?
Hmm... Right. At least as I understand it.
Eu
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Alpha Alpha ( C2 Score: 195) |
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| When: | 3/13/07 (23:30) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/13/07 (21:29) The problem is when you confuse a fact with an opinion.
Foolishness and the ability to predict sunrise aside, here are my 2 cents ...
Most of the oscillators I follow (both daily and weekly charts) were in the extreme overbought zone around 02/19/2007 onwards.
My experience has been that when this happens a correction is generally due. Ofcourse, one cannot predict the date and time of the correction, or whether such a correction will indeed happen. If the market has moved in one direction too much too fast then the likelihood(probability) of the correction is high.
Entering short positions into rallies and using position sizing one can gain advantage.
Likewise, it is difficult to estimate the strength of the correction if and when it happens - whether it will be 4% or 20%. Prior corrections and behavior of the markets in similar situations in the past is the guiding force. And there are various vested players - from hedge funds, institutions, central banks that can change the dynamics of a correction or a rally.
On the past 5 occasions over the last 3 years, the major indices have corrected 6%, bounced back to 50-day EMA which co-incidentally(?) happens to be 33% retracement of the original correction and then retest the prior lows before continuing their rallies. If the retracement (bounce) is 50% or more of the correction, then a second correction did not occur and the secular rally has continued.
So will this make me money ? Will it be different this time ? I do not know. But I will be more inclined to enter my trades accordingly.
Last but not the least there will be times when a trader will be wrong and will fail, perhaps miserably.
And I am sure I will be reminded of this fact by the members of this board - and I definitely look forward to healthy non-personal criticism.
Have a nice day !!
:-) |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Lew Payne ( C2 Score: 911) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (0:43) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (21:58) The current ecomonic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion.
You can quote CNN , Fox, Bloomberg etc. to counter that (I'm sure you will)
...
See entire
The current ecomonic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion. - David Nickerson
So is the eventual exhaustion and implosion of our sun. There... I saved you the trouble of bringing the sun (or stars) back into this thread.
Since you seem to miss the point... it's easy to state the obvious. It is more difficult to pinpoint the exact dates on which the obvious will fall. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Bundle Trader ( C2 Score: 967) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (1:14) | |
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| | In response to post by Alpha Alpha of 3/13/07 (23:30) Foolishness and the ability to predict sunrise aside, here are my 2 cents ...
Most of the oscillators I follow (both daily and weekly charts) were in the extreme overbought zone around 02/19/2007 onwards....
See entire
I gave your previous response 10/10.
I give this one 10/10 too.
Solid thought, solid thinking. It's nice to see you respond as a vendor that was on the correct side of 2/27, and it's instructional to see your responses here as they relate to the discussion. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (7:25) | |
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| | In response to post by Alpha Alpha of 3/13/07 (23:30) Foolishness and the ability to predict sunrise aside, here are my 2 cents ...
Most of the oscillators I follow (both daily and weekly charts) were in the extreme overbought zone around 02/19/2007 onwards....
See entire
"Most of the oscillators I follow (both daily and weekly charts) were in the extreme overbought zone around 02/19/2007 onwards."
That is irrelevant. Oscillators can stay there for long periods. When they do have value, it is generally when they are moving between OB/OS, for possible oscillation profits. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (9:51) | |
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| | In response to post by Panu Haaramo of 3/07/07 (8:46) How do you make 70% winners and "A steady 30 to 50% annually" without predicting the market?
70% winn...
See entire
> How do you make 70% winners and "A steady 30 to 50% annually" without predicting the market?
Several well known methods (hourly channel breakouts, volatility breakouts, range contraction/expansion breakouts, A/D bearish divergence with any number of breakout filters, opening range breakouts, etc.) would have put you short on or near the open on 2-27. None of these methods/systems "predicted" how far the market would fall.
If you have a royal flush off the initial deal in five card draw you know
you have a high probability hand. There is no way to "predict" how much
you will make or how much the other players will bet. Same thing: you know you want to take the bet (trade), but you really don't know for sure exactly what will happen next.
OTOH, I disagree with Dustin that being short on 2-27 is pure luck. Any number of systems which would have done fine on the way up would have also put you short on 2-27. Staying short, at least into the close, was about as obvious as not folding with a royal flush. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (10:05) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/13/07 (20:40) Anyone with half a brain will tell you that the US economy is heading for a massive downtrend.
> Anyone with half a brain will tell you that the US economy is heading for a massive downtrend.
Robert Prechter has an IQ about twice that of most people (went to Yale on an academic scholarship). One might argue that's like having two brains ;-).
Prechter predicted "the US economy (was) heading for a massive downtrend" circa 1989.
I really like Prechter, but it just goes to show how "predictions" can bite you. Better just to trade 'em as they come. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (10:23) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/14/07 (10:05) > Anyone with half a brain will tell you that the US economy is heading for a massive downtrend.
Robert Prechter has an IQ about twice that of most people (went to Yale on an academic scholarship). One might argue that's like having two brains ;-)....
See entire
Books over the years from doomsday predictor author Ravi Batra. If he stays around for another few decades, eventually he might be right:
"The Great Depression of 1990 : How to Survive and Prosper " &
"Surviving the Great Depression of 1990" published in 1988 and 1989
"The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism : Can Capitalism Be Saved?" published in 1990 (when Depression of 1990 didn't hit)
"The Pooring of America : Competition and the Myth of Free Trade " published in 1994
"Great American Deception : What Politicians Won't Tell You About Our Economy and Your Future " published in 1996
"Stock Market Crashes " published in 1999
"The Crash of the Millennium : Surviving the Coming Inflationary Depression " published in 1999
"Greenspan's Fraud : How Two Decades of His Policies Have Undermined the Global Economy " published in 2006
NOW HE REVERSES COURSE!!!!! A new golden age!!
"The New Golden Age : The Coming Revolution Against Political Corruption and Economic Chaos " published in 2007
Now, does he have half or a whole brain, since he was not correct, but maybe eventually (by accident) ??? I could haVE made a lot of money by doing the reverse til now...
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (10:42) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/14/07 (10:05) > Anyone with half a brain will tell you that the US economy is heading for a massive downtrend.
Robert Prechter has an IQ about twice that of most people (went to Yale on an academic scholarship). One might argue that's like having two brains ;-)....
See entire
> just goes to show how "predictions" can bite you. Better just to trade 'em as they come.
In fairness, I should also give Prechter credit. He also predicted the latest
decline in no uncertain terms. He suggested being fully short on Feb. 21
and *predicted* a large sharp decline and a major trend change. He had a tight protective stop basis SPX cash at 1467.50. I'm pretty sure he's still holding short. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Bundle Trader ( C2 Score: 967) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (11:40) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/14/07 (9:51) > How do you make 70% winners and "A steady 30 to 50% annually" without predicting the market?
Several well known methods (hourly channel breakouts, volatility breakouts, range contraction/expansion breakouts, A/D bearish divergence with any number of breakout filters, opening range breakouts, etc.) would have put you short on or near the open on 2-27. None of these methods/systems "predicted" how far the market would fall....
See entire
OTOH, I disagree with Dustin that being short on 2-27 is pure luck. Any number of systems which would have done fine on the way up would have also put you short on 2-27. Staying short, at least into the close, was about as obvious as not folding with a royal flush.
No method trades everyday and is 100% accurate. In that sense, you were "lucky" if your method had you short on such an outlier day. It happens, but it's nothing to brag about, anymore than being dealt a royal flush is. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (12:02) | |
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| | In response to post by Bundle Trader of 3/14/07 (11:40) OTOH, I disagree with Dustin that being short on 2-27 is pure luck. Any number of systems which would have done fine on the way up would have also put you short on 2-27. Staying short, at least into the close, was about as obvious as not folding with a royal flush.
...
See entire
> No method trades everyday and is 100% accurate.
Of course not. Did I say the market is as predictable as a
sunrise? It's more like weather prediction than astrology.
> In that sense, you were "lucky" if your method had you short on such an outlier day.
I guess. But the point is a variety of systems that have been around
20-30-40+ years were short that open.
> It happens, but it's nothing to brag about, anymore than being dealt a royal flush is.
Right, but whose bragging?
Getting short given this circumstance wasn't a 1:649,750 shot
(royal flush odds). It's something these systems would do most of the time (again given the breakdown, breadth, range contraction, volume non-confirmation, etc). Not secret stuff or rocket science or luck. These types of systems are tried and true, but they are counter intuitive. Most folks think "buy low, sell high". Most folks lose. These systems sold low and bought lower (or are still short). |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (12:46) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/14/07 (12:02) > No method trades everyday and is 100% accurate.
Of course not. Did I say the market is as predictable as a
...
See entire
"It's something these systems would do most of the time (again given the breakdown, breadth, range contraction, volume non-confirmation, etc).
I agree with your associating it with weather forecasting, but I consider it far less accurate.
It is obvious a few systems outperform over time, and some were likely short based on their system indicators. But I find it extremely doubtful anyone "knew" this would be a big one, like Mr. Six Sigma, who "knew things would get interesting soon." Not even bothering to give a direction or approx time, he proved nothing.
To me, systems that were short for 2/27 is just noise. Once proves nothing. It remains luck to me unless proved otherwise. It is also possible some flagged long due to some short term indication right before the market went down. Does that make them better or worse?
Markets aren't "predicted." They have some semi-reliable tendencies which happen more than 50% of the time, which by using appropriate money management, some skilled traders/sys-vendors can outperform. The Tankh (Old Testament) gave an interesting test of a prophet - his prophecies had to be 100% or else he was to be ignored or perhaps stoned. Predictions usually come true. Following the market is not true predictions.
I am still chuckling at the guy who was using the monthly tendency of the market (seasonality) to rise from the last few days of a month through first few days of next (a theory he read about and believed in). I told him twice that he should use money management; he often had an outsized gain and refused to lock in some profit "because his testing showed better performance when no profit targets/stops were used". Suddenly after losing all his yearlong gains rapidly, he has promised to use stops. DUH
I only give a system its due if it is usually on the right side of the market when big ones hit. Like: 2/27/07, last mid-May plunge, 10/19/87, 9/11/01, and other big up/down days/periods.
Like the big lottery winner. To her, it is good luck. To everyone, it is probability.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (13:39) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/14/07 (12:46) "It's something these systems would do most of the time (again given the breakdown, breadth, range contraction, volume non-confirmation, etc)....
See entire
> I agree with your associating it with weather forecasting, but I consider it far less accurate.
Well imagine if there was a NWS board where 2000+ folks from various backgrounds tried to predict the weather...
Lets look at a specific analogy. Say you are looking at the radar and
a heavy spiral is heading your way. The barometer is at 900 MB and
dropping. Think it might be a good bet that your in for bad weather?
Now lets say the Declines are 10:1 over the Advances and rising. The
chart shows you the market just took out 20 days worth of stops and 20 more days worth are just below. Think it might be a good bet that your in for bad weather?
These things don't happen every day, but seeing them for what they are
DOES offer opportunity and/or a means to avoid risk. It is not magic, and it is not luck, and it's not a prediction. It is just understanding probabilities. This is the same reason why the same group of poker players win the vast majority of the time.
> To me, systems that were short for 2/27 is just noise. Once proves nothing. It remains luck to me unless proved otherwise.
Skepticism is one thing, but sometimes your cynicism is over the top.
I think it clouds your judgment as an impartial observer. The methods
I've mentioned wouldn't just catch this kind of rare move. They would also have been mostly long on the way up. And they were short in May.
Moreover, 20-30 years of CTA rankings show there are guys using these same or similar methods that are still making money.
I have to ask: if there is no valid method for making money in the markets, why have you (seemingly) devoted your life to the markets? |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Index ( C2 Score: 975) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (13:52) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/14/07 (13:39) > I agree with your associating it with weather forecasting, but I consider it far less accurate.
Well imagine if there was a NWS board where 2000+ folks from various backgrounds tried to predict the weather......
See entire
"if there is no valid method for making money in the markets, why have you (seemingly) devoted your life to the markets? "
Not what I said. From above:
"It is obvious a few systems outperform over time, and some were likely short based on their system indicators.
"Markets aren't "predicted." They have some semi-reliable tendencies which happen more than 50% of the time, which by using appropriate money management, some skilled traders/sys-vendors can outperform"
Most CTA rankings I have seen were rather unimpressive, albeit they tend to be short-term; A 20-30 year decent record would be interesting, but I am more of a system trader. I never let others trade my money. But there are always a few that seem to do realtively well.
But I think C2 and other places demonstrate the fact that it is very hard to have a good outperforming system. They come and disappear. Too many people confuse systems that do well out of luck (out of 100 active systems, a few will appear to do well). Or they confuse those who leverage a rising market.
My true measure of a system, besides a few obvious stats (PF, APD, Sharpe), is one that consistently makes money against the prevailing trend of the market. THEN I am impressed...
But I find the good systems - outperforming, over a multiyear period, in different markets to be exceptionally few. (And I avoid scalpers). Several sites (such as Striker & Attain brokers) are system-focused. They track the big systems (Aberration, and others). But the performance after release tends to be much worse than pre-release, and most of them have done little for years. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (14:26) | |
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| | In response to post by Index of 3/14/07 (13:52) "if there is no valid method for making money in the markets, why have you (seemingly) devoted your life to the markets? "
...
See entire
"Markets aren't "predicted."
I stipulated as much on my first post.
> A 20-30 year decent record would be interesting, but I am more of a system trader.
They are system traders too. Most guys that have peppered the top
of the CTA lists over multiple decades have some variation of channel
breakouts. Even shorter term traders like Crabel uses a variation
of the breakout theme. He made good money with variations on his
published method over a 10 year period. Consider though, his idea
is trading the "opening range breakout". In 2007, what is the opening
range? 12AM? 9:30AM? Things change, even great ideas may not
work forever.
> makes money against the prevailing trend of the market.
Or better yet, has a means to understand when the trend has changed.
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (14:41) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/14/07 (14:26) "Markets aren't "predicted."
I stipulated as much on my first post.
> A 20-30 year decent record would be interesting, but I am more of a system trader....
See entire
The way I see the markets is this.
1: 80% of currencey volume is excecuted by 10 major banks.
2: If you're the chief strategist for one of these banks (i.e. overseeing 250 billion turnover per day) do you really think you don't know what the 'economic news' will be or when interest rates will go up.
Is this guy really going to be 'suprised' by the Fed?
3: The banks can see where your stops are anyway.
To me that's the only really important point to be made in currencey trading. i.e. It's a stacked deck.
Whether you're 'predicintg', 'expecting' or 'speculating' it's all semantics really.
yes, psychology is important but we're all grown men/women here
so bottom line as far as that's concerened is to 'keep my shit together' (so to speak!) |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (14:50) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/14/07 (14:26) "Markets aren't "predicted."
I stipulated as much on my first post.
> A 20-30 year decent record would be interesting, but I am more of a system trader....
See entire
Also there's people making a lot of money writing books explaining the difference between 'expecting' 'predicting' 'speculating ' playing the probabilities' etc. etc.
I don't give them my money! |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | Sam Cook ( C2 Score: 276) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (15:50) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/14/07 (14:50) Also there's people making a lot of money writing books explaining the difference between 'expecting' 'predicting' 'speculating ' playing the probabilities' etc. etc....
See entire
>Also there's people making a lot of money writing books explaining the difference between 'expecting' 'predicting' 'speculating ' playing the probabilities' etc. etc.
> I don't give them my money!
If you are referring to Crabel's book is out of print since 1990 or so. He became a profitable CTA for 10 or so years and had several billion$
under management......so you can't give him money for his
book, but he was accepting accounts, I think the minimum was
$5,000,000 last I looked....not sure.
Anyway, if you bought his book when it came out you would have
made an excellent trade. It now sells on Amazon for $1000+. That's
a better long term return than most systems. |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (17:22) | |
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| | In response to post by Sam Cook of 3/14/07 (15:50) >Also there's people making a lot of money writing books explaining the difference between 'expecting' 'predicting' 'speculating ' playing the probabilities' etc. etc....
See entire
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (17:35) | |
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| | In response to post by james ballord of 3/14/07 (17:22) True
That sounds good Sam.
The only point I'm making is that everyone quotes Warren Buffet
or whoever, usualy combined with repeats of some 'how to trade' book or internet site.
I agree there's great value in reading Market Wizards and other classics. The book you mentioned sounds good as well.
It's all easier said than done though.
There comes a point where either someone knows what they're doing or they don't.
It's that simple really.
That's why I don't usualy post on forums.
I posted on T2W a month ago and it only took a day for someone to start hurling abuse. So what's the point in posting?
Why would a professional trader bother?
So this really is my last post on an internet forum (thank God!)
(and I mean that nicely!) |
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| Subject: | Where are the big winners of the decline? |
| Posted by: | james ballord ( C2 Score: 959) |
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| When: | 3/14/07 (17:54) | |
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| | In response to post by Bundle Trader of 3/13/07 (22:14) I wonder why you aren't working for the world's financial firms that employ some of the smartest people in the world?
...
See entire
Firstly I do work for a professional consultancy firm and secondly
if you think the smartest people in the financial institutions didn't 'predict' 9/11 to the day or don't know that the US stock market is massively over valued you are very naive.
It's a fact that any economy that quadruples it's money supply in 6 years is in trouble.
The only 'model' that the vast majority professionals trade is information. The rest is mostly BS is to take the public's money in one form or another.
But anyhow thanks for all the nasty replies. If you knew what you were talking about you wouldn't need to be so aggresive.
Anyone with half a brain (under the sun) knows that.
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