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Forum: System: SMA

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6/05/09 (18:08)Rick Haines31Introduction to SMA
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I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list.
At this time SMA has a 68% winning ratio, a.26 APD, a 1.3 sharpe ratio and a 1.6.1 profit factor. With a 100% realism factor and a 100% keep after worst case scenario.
SMA is currently showing a 46% annual return.
SMA trades IWM, MDY, and QQQQ.
I designed SMA to trade 3 signals mechanically. All 3 signals are based on technical indicators and all 3 signals use a secondary confirmation indicator. Since the QQQQ signal is very different from the IWM and MDY signal I believe this signal to have diversification built into it. It will be extremely rare for this signal to be on opposite sides of the market with either of its holdings.
SMA has its signals issued before the market open and all trades should be market trades on the open. Temporarily SMA will be free to the public.
SMA just issued 2 short signals for the market open. I would encourage all interested traders to sign up for this free signal.
If you have any questions please feel free to send me a personal message. I look forward to publishing a profitable signal for all that may be interested to benefit from.

Thanks and Good Luck

Rick Haines

SMA
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

I have a lot of people who are personal messaging me and asking me the same questions about the logic of SMA. Most of all why did we go from one short position this morning to another? Also why do we sometimes have a long and short position?
I will try to explain to the best of my ability. I think of SMA as 3 totally different baskets of money. The IWM and MDY signal have two common denominators. The QQQQ signal has a common denominator with MDY. The MDY and QQQQ signal will always be on the same side of the market if they are both in the market. The IWM and QQQQ signal can sometimes be on different sides of the market.
When I get a mixed signal IWM short and QQQQ long or vice versa I follow both signals without any subjective changes on my part. I feel like this mixture of signals is engineered to give us a very good return and at the same time be as safe as possible. If I were to start subjectively changing the signals I believe the results as far as annual return and safety features such as sharpe ratio and APD would not be as high.
In summary this is a 100% mechanical signal. Designed to take the guess work out of trading. It is very simple to follow the signal however sometimes extremely difficult. Difficult because our thinking sometimes gets in there and gets in the way. If past history is any indication of future results following this signal will earn us a very good return. Interpreting the market direction and changing the signals will only give us a lesser return.
Thank You
Good Luck
Rick Haines
SMA
  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:ALWA ALWA ( C2 Score: 737)  New msg
 
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When:6/19/08 (2:10) 
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 6/18/08 (17:48)

I have a lot of people who are personal messaging me and asking me the same questions about the logic of SMA. Most of all why did we go from one short position this morning to another? Also why do we sometimes have a long and short position? ...

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Itīs a nice curve except in the beginning. Did you change something?
  
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In response to post by ALWA ALWA of 6/19/08 (2:10)

Itīs a nice curve except in the beginning. Did you change something?

No I did not change a thing. January was prettty much a strait down month. In a very directional extended move either way this signal will not do well.

Thanks
Rick Haines
  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:Wladimir Mourao ( C2 Score: 19)  New msg
 
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When:6/19/08 (9:29) 
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 6/19/08 (8:11)

No I did not change a thing. January was prettty much a strait down month. In a very directional extended move either way this signal will not do well.

Thanks
Rick Haines

Do you mean by that that in an extended bull run SMA will get us less than market return? (not that I imagine this type of market for a while)
  
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In response to post by Wladimir Mourao of 6/19/08 (9:29)

Do you mean by that that in an extended bull run SMA will get us less than market return? (not that I imagine this type of market for a while)

In an extended bull run the IWM signal will indicate over bought and go short. The MDY and QQQQ signal have a volatility filter that will possibly take them to cash. So we could be on the wrong side of the market with 97.5% of our portfolio. This is not engraved in concrete and every market day has its own characteristic and consequence on our signal.
No signal covers every market condition. Since the market rarely goes in the same direction for long SMA has a good blend of performance that makes good money in an overall time frame.
Rick Haines

SMA
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

Not a bad month for us. Up considerably while the S+P 500 is down more than 8%. Interesting stock market. If you look at a daily chart of the S+P500 going back to Dec 07. You can see from Dec 11th to Jan 22nd. It looks almost identical to the time period from May 19th to June 30th.

What is most interesting is SMA and CG lost a good deal of money in the first instance and made money in the second. You would think that since both time periods look so much alike they would perform the same.

Also of note. I brought Ultimate Trader out on C2 because of all of the money it made in the January slide. Now you can see it has made significant losses the last week.

I will try and explain this to the best of my ability. Our timing model is based solely on market internals. I don’t ever look at the price of the issue traded. Market internals are created with human activity. The problem with any trading floor anywhere is the turnover in traders. Since over 90% of traders loose all of their money in 90 days there is a constant influx of new traders with the not as new traders leaving for the most part broke. So there is never a market period that can or will be similar to any other market period. It is like putting your hand into a mountain stream. You will always be putting your hand into different water.

SMA and CG are actually working right now exactly like they are designed to do. I would like very much to have made money on the short side of this market. With such a major move it normally will not happen. We will normally be in cash. Right now our signals are just getting farther and farther apart. I don’t think we will have a signal for a few days.

Thank You
Rick Haines
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

I have been wanting to write a note about our margin call this week. This is late partially because I have been so busy with other areas of my life and partially because I was not sure exactly what to say. Just the sound of a margin call is enough to make some traders cringe. I had 3 subscribers drop SMA within 30 minutes of selling MDY. Most traders are not fond of margin calls. When I started SMA I wanted to stretch the limit on margin without ever getting one. I have decided not to change the margin rate I am using on C2. Account value plus 90%. I am doing this for several reasons. Mostly because most of my subscribers are trading their own comfort level when it comes to margin. Some are trading Rydex and others are trading leveraged ETF’s. For the few that are trading or auto trading with the same margin as I am I believe there is a trade off that is advantages to using +90%. We have a win ratio of 73% with a total of 67 trades so far. We have had 49 winning trades. I believe stretching the profit on 49 winning trades and selling one out as a margin call is far more profitable than using a lesser margin rate. I do encourage all of my subscribers to think for themselves and if you are not comfortable with my logic do not trade account value +90%, use less. Or do not use any margin at all. SMA is showing a 73% annual return. Just trading without any margin would have made you +38% annually up to this point. Not bad.

I have been looking at SMA and doing some comparing with the S+P 500. Just some interesting observations. Even with our margin call this week we are showing a 2.3% gain for the month of July. The S+P 500 is down 1.51% since the close on the last day of June.
Looking at our web page you see we have not had a losing month since January. The S+P500 lost February, March, June and July. An indication we can make money in a down market.
Since the last day of January the S+P 500 is down 8.55% SMA is up 50.2% calculated simply.

What is harder to see because of the lousy charts on C2 is the mid month performances. If you look at a daily chart of the S+P 500 from March 17th to May 13th you see a very clear up trending market that is up 11.75%. Looking at our chart on C2 you can see SMA up somewhere around a 25% increase.

Again looking at the S+P 500 from May 19th to July 15th you see a clear down trend losing 14.84%. SMA appears to have earned around 10% in that time period.

Looking at the S+P 500 in May you see a sideways market up 1.07% from April 30th to May 30th. You see SMA earning 9.3% in the same time frame.

Finally since May 5th the start of SMA on C2 the S+P 500 is down 16.27% while SMA is up 38% after commissions.
Not bad. I hope everybody has a great weekend.

Thank You
Rick Haines
  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:Index ( C2 Score: 975)  New msg
 
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When:7/19/08 (1:34) 
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 7/18/08 (18:45)

I have been wanting to write a note about our margin call this week. This is late partially because I have been so busy...

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which trade are you talking about? Is it not in your visible track record yet?
  
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In response to post by Index of 7/19/08 (1:34)

which trade are you talking about? Is it not in your visible track record yet?

On the 15th I sold MDY and took that money to cash. That was to satisfy a margin call.
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

This has been a difficult time for any trader lately. During September I thought our signal did rather well. The last 10 days of the month we had some enormous gainers. For a short time there our average winning trade was bigger than our average losing trade. Something I have been waiting for since the beginning. Now with this big loser the average losing trade is once again larger.

Difficult to look at our October result, taken in context of the market does not really make it any easier. It seems like we are following the market down. Given that I am talking about a 3 day period it makes it less relevant. On a larger scale since the last day of August the market is down over 14% while we are up over 4%. Not too bad for a 33 day period.

Now seems to be a very good time to be a mechanical trader. For this reason I am writing this note. Most of you know I am trading the SMA IWM signal using Rydex mutual funds. I originally designed SMA to be a very safe signal to put all of your money into. Because of the volatility safety net built into the QQQQ and MDY signals we should not be in a bad trade for long with more than just the IWM signal. The IWM signal is a overbought and oversold measurement on 2 different market internals. As you are well aware of a market can stay overbought or oversold for a long time. In this instance the IWM signal can take a beating. The good part of that is we only use 87.5% of our portfolio for IWM.

Trading mechanically during these times of economic and political uncertainty is the genius of SMA. Tonight is a great example. We are long with 87% of our portfolio. There is a very important vote going on within our government about the bail out. How would you trade that if you had too? Would you figure a yes vote and if so would that make the market go up or down? Or would you guess a veto and would that make the market go up or down? Who knows what the vote will be and who knows how it will impact the market Monday on the open. I know I have many subscribers that are using SMA as a guide for their discretionary trading and I have many subscribers that use SMA mechanically just how it is published. Right now SMA is showing over 50% yearly. It would be interesting to know how many of you discretionary traders using SMA as a guide are doing better than that. I know I can’t.

Since December 17, 2007 the stock market is down over 23% while we are up around 40%. I believe in the long run SMA is doing its job very well. The trick to making money is to understand we are going to take draw downs and to understand this is part of the game. We are showing a 68% winning ratio. There is no way to make money with those 64 trades without taking the 29 losing trades.

My favorite author on trading is Mark Douglas. He discusses trading from a physiological aspect. Reading him is something I would recommend. I have said for years the hardest part of trading is handling your inner thoughts. What he taught me was to make a trading plan that best fits my mentality and stick with it. If you can handle the fear and greed that goes on between your ears and design a trading program that best fits your psychological makeup than you are on the road to success.

Thanks

Rick Haines

SMA
  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:Eu New ( C2 Score: 965)  New msg
 
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When:10/04/08 (15:23) 
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 10/03/08 (17:23)

This has been a difficult time for any trader lately. During September I thought our signal did rather well. The last 10 days of the month we had some enormous gainers. For a short time there our average winning trade was bigger than our average losing trade. Something I have been waiting for since the beginning. Now with this big loser the average losing trade is once again larger....

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Now seems to be a very good time to be a mechanical trader.
Richard,
Honestly it's very doubtful assumption for me. At 9/29 pure mechanical Tango system touched 50% DD level, at C2 it's struggling at 25% DD level with my interventions. There is nothing write to a home, but it's better. Current market needs human been to watch. imho, of course.

So far I haven't found anything better than comparison of back testing results vs manual interventions results per period of time. The approach is very simple. We would compare one period of time for mechanical trading vs mechanical trading plus discretionary interventions. If pure mechanical trading is better, we leave a system alone without our interventions for next period of time, if our interventions show better results we continue to use our discretionary approach.

Just my thoughts and 2c,
Eu
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

We have a signal today to go long IWM. I am not going to publish it on the web site nor am I going to put my own money into it. If you would like to go long IWM on the open let me know and I will make sure you get the signal to go to cash or go short. I prefer you do not do this.

One of the difficulties is the market internal that is half of this signal. It has a 0 base line. It cannot go lower then 0. It is on 0 today. There was one other time it was 0 and that was 9-27-1990.

Looking at todays market action I see volume go way up and prices go way down the last 30 minutes of the day. A strong indication of institutional selling. I believe because of 401 mutual fund switching into money market funds this could continue for some time. If I had to make a guess I believe there will be more selling tomorrow and after everybody checks their 401 balance this weekend there very likely could be a very strong down day Monday.

We are now left with the dilemma of setting a formula for getting back into our signal mechanically. I believe I will use our next MDY signal with both of our issues IWM and MDY. Tell there is more than a 0 in our market internal for at least X number of days I will not use that as a signal. After the required number of days as history we can then revert back to our normal IWM signal. I will tell you when I issue the next few signals if it is the original IWM signal or the MDY signal.

This is a problem for me I have seen coming for a couple of days. I have really worked on this in my head trying to figure out the best way to deal with it. I am not an advocate of subjective trading I call it trading by guess and by golly. This is a subjective decision to ignore for now a mechanically produced signal. I would much rather use a mechanical signal that wins over 65% of the time and let the odds work in my favor to build wealth. This is a exceptional week and a good week to stay in cash.

Thanks Good Luck

Rick Haines
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

I have created a price reduction in the form of a coupon for UT2. For any of my previous and current subscribers of any of my previous or past signals.

If you have in the past subscribed to Target 50, Wave Rider, Conservative Growth, Ultimate Trader, or SMA. This coupon is good to anybody that has stayed with a signal longer than the free 30 day trial period and has paid a subscription fee for at least 1 month.

Please send me a persoanl message informing me of the signal you have in the past subscribed to and when. I will in return send you the coupon code. The reduced price is $5.00 monthly for 3 billing periods.

Thanks and Good Luck

Rick Haines UT2
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

I am going to be going to Denver tomorrow to spend the Holiday with my family. If we get a signal there is a chance it could be very late in the evening. Please check your email in the morning before the open if you have not heard from me.

I take this seriously and will not fail to calculate the signal this week however it may be late in the evening.

Happy Holidays!!!!!!!!!

I am confident the New Year will bring us great health, happiness and unlimited abundance.

Thank You

Rick Haines
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

I would like to take a moment to thank my SMA subscribers for their support through this year. With the S+P 500 showing a -38% our +52% looks really good. Our statistics are more than respectable with a Sharpe ratio of 1.4 an APD of 27 and a 68% winning ratio.

Many of you have been with me since before the middle of 2008, for that I am truly grateful.

December is the best month yet for SMA with a +28% gain. With the S+P up just a fraction of a percent it is a very good representation of how SMA performs. As many of you have noticed SMA works extremely well with a sideways market. When we get a directional market like OCT and NOV, SMA does not show as well. Thankfully for those of you that stuck with me DEC made up for our losses. Since the end of SEP the S+P 500 is down 22% while SMA is up 3%.

I plan to continue publishing SMA with the same exact formula as always. Nothing will change for the new year. I believe SMA to be a good signal that is easy to follow and execute.

HAPPY NEW YEAR to all of you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

May your year ahead of you be blessed with great health happiness and unlimited abundance!!!!!!!!

Rick Haines
  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:User Removed ( C2 Score: 215)  New msg
 
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When:12/31/08 (23:02) 
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 12/31/08 (19:34)

I would like to take a moment to thank my SMA subscribers for their support through this year. With the S+P 500 showing a -38% our +52% looks really good. Our statistics are more than respectable with a Sharpe ratio of 1.4 an APD of 27 and a 68% winning ratio....

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Re: unlimited abundance

Is there such a thing as a "limited abundance"?
  
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In response to post by User Removed of 12/31/08 (23:02)

Re: unlimited abundance

Is there such a thing as a "limited abundance"?

absolutely. . .

Heavy Hitter:

Compound Annual % 56,654,600,000% over 24 days

; )
  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:User Removed ( C2 Score: 215)  New msg
 
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When:12/31/08 (23:11) 
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In response to post by Gilbert Arevalo of 12/31/08 (23:07)

absolutely. . .

[LINKSYSTEM_37018596]:

Compound Annual % 56,654,600,000% over 24 days

; )

Haha, no, I call that irrational exuberance. :-)
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

Here is a entry I posted on another vendors forum. I am moving it here for future reference. I would like very much for my current and future subscribers to understand how I trade. This helps.

This is a good post Kevin something I can relate to. Having back tested over 900 different signals using various perimeters on an infinite number of issues or internals I have some experience I am willing to share.

This is my experience and not a rebuttal or argument with you on your understanding.

I have found the fewer number of technical measurements used on an issue is the best for me. Usually when I get a good back test and put another perimeter on it the return is less.
For example if I have a back test that made 70% yearly and one that made 60% yearly. When I combine the 2 the return is normally less than the worse back test or less than 60% in this case.

I have found it next to impossible to get a good return using more than 2 perimeters on any back test. Also the more perimeters a signal uses the less likely it is to get a signal. Since I use one perimeter with a confirming perimeter I get a sufficient number of trades.

One of my earlier signals Wave Rider did ok using just one perimeter on each issue. Trading IWM and QQQQ I was always in 100%.

My signal Ultimate Trader had a confirming perimeter. That signal back tested very well and since closing it here on C2 it is still performing fine. The problem with the signal is I used too much margin on leveraged ETF’s. Making the returns far too volatile to trade. Ultimate Trader taught me a lot when it comes to position sizing and money management.

When it comes to whether I want to use one perimeter and be always in or use 2 and be in cash sometimes, I found I prefer to be in cash sometimes. I believe the psychological aspect is the problem to trading. When I am in the market 24/7 I find the stress harder to tolerate. When I get to go to cash it gives me a welcome break.

With my current signal SMA, sometimes it is in with all three of its issues. IWM, MDY and QQQQ. When the signal is all in I am somewhat stressed. I feel responsible for my subscribers and really place a lot of importance on the returns we are getting. Especially at times when the chart is going down and we go to cash, I am really happy to be there.

In summary I find I like to use 2 or sometimes 3 perimeters on a given signal. Using more than 3 makes it less likely to trade and using just 1 keeps me all in 100% of the time.

Thanks for the productive post you are doing on the C2 forum. We need productive helpful interaction here. Anything else is destructive to all involved.

Rick Haines

  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:Index ( C2 Score: 975)  New msg
 
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When:4/16/09 (4:53) 
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/15/09 (18:25)

Here is a entry I posted on another vendors forum. I am moving it here for future reference. I would like very much for my current and future subscribers to understand how I trade. This helps....

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perimeters?
  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:Skip Phairas ( C2 Score: 85)  New msg
 
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When:4/16/09 (11:31) 
 

In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/15/09 (18:25)

Here is a entry I posted on another vendors forum. I am moving it here for future reference. I would like very much for my current and future subscribers to understand how I trade. This helps....

See entire

Rick,

Here's another example of a system developer who is taking the time and making the effort to explain much more about his product than many others. it illuminates a lot for those of us who casually pass by it every day.

Good job, Rick!

Keep this up - it truly does help customers and potential customers understand much more about your product. That can only help you in the long run differentiate yourself and your product(s).

Thanks for the explanation.

Skip
  
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In response to post by Skip Phairas of 4/16/09 (11:31)

Rick,

Here's another example of a system developer who is taking the time and making the effort to explain much more about his product than many others. it illuminates a lot for those of us who casually pass by it every day....

See entire

Thank You Skip.

I guess I shouldn't have skipped my spellin classes.

Rick Haines
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

On June 17th I will discontinue SMA and come out with a new signal. The new signal will trade IWM only. The new signal will be identical to SMA’s IWM signal. There will be no change.

The new signal will cost $50.00 monthly however I will be issuing $5.00 coupons good for 4 months to any subscriber that has purchased at least 1 month of any of my past signals. With the 30 day free trial you will be able to receive the new signal for just $15.00 for 4 months.

I am doing this for several reasons. I am not sure how many of my subscribers are actually trading QQQQ and MDY. All it takes is just a little research into SMA and you can discover the IWM signal is by far the best of the 3. The QQQQ signal has been a drag on SMA for several months now.

I have not decided on how much margin to use on the new signal however with just an account balance plus 50% the new signal should return over 100% yearly.

For those of you that have been my clients for several months I sincerely hope you stay with me and switch to the new signal when it comes out. For others that may be interested I suggest you take a close look at SMA’s IWM signal. Trading that signal with a little margin and possibly a leveraged ETF would be enough to make a small account large after compounding for just a couple of years.

I welcome feedback especially from my paying clients. All suggestions will be considered.

Thanks and Good Luck

Rick Haines

SMA
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

Trading Styles and Technique

I believe one very important element of trading is choosing a style the suits me. What I have discovered trading is the difficulty it is to hold to a discipline. The emotional effects of trading are usually extremely detrimental. The problem is the difficulty in trading profitably. Since almost no trader makes money in the long run I eventually have to face the inevitable loss of trading capital. It is very important to only trade money I can afford to loss. Any stress placed on me by trading monies that are of value to me will eventually lead to emotional misjudgments.

It was not until I gave up on the outcome and focused on the technique did I become successful. I could not give up on the outcome when I was trading money that was important to me.

Focusing on the destination and not the journey is a sure way to not make the destination. Because there are so few successful traders it stands to reason the traders that are successful are very different. One major difference that sticks out is their focus. A good trader understands he must get his trading proficiency right. While working on your trading proficiency and getting it right your trading capital will increase. If you focus on becoming wealthy you will surely miss the very important lesson in trading that would have made you wealthy. By missing that lesson you lose money.

Since almost all traders loss money it stands to reason they all are going down the wrong path together. All the successful traders I know are completely original. Their technique is not something they found in books. It is something that took years or decades to slowly come across bit by bit.

How does this pertain to us? Looking at my subscriber base and history I see many clients that must be losing money. April was a great example. In April SMA earned 24%. At the end of April I had one of my longest running subscribers unsubscribe. I had a new client use SMA for 2 weeks and then drop out. During the second best month of SMA’s history it does not make sense to walk away if you are actually reaping the benefits that are proven to be possible.

For my clients that need to make more than the 57% annually SMA is showing I offer this guidance. Looking at the history of SMA you see 2 marginal signals in QQQQ and MDY. You find 1 great signal in IWM. The IWM signal makes money 79% of its trades and without margin makes 69% yearly. If you use the IWM signal exclusively trading the leveraged ETFs UWM and TWM you will make a return of 138% yearly. If you added just an account value plus 50% you would then be earning 207% yearly. I do not recommend leveraging higher than that on this signal.

Ok back to the start of this communication. Focus on trading what SMA is trading. Do not deviate. Do not let your head get in the way. Don’t watch the news and try to increase your earnings by second guessing outcomes. I can list a thousand things not to do however it streamlines things to list what to do. Watch SMA and do what it is doing.

You have a wonderful opportunity to take advantage of me. What I have done in the last 8 years is totally cave in this office of mine. I work on trading over 8 hours a day usually 5 or more days a week. I have a job I can adjust my hours and work as much as I want. This month is a good example I am working 2 days a week. The other 5 are used almost entirely on trading. By choosing a trading methodology of purchasing a signal and following it you have a wonderful opportunity to accumulate wealth.

Just Do It!!!!!!!!!!!

Rick Haines
  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:Index ( C2 Score: 975)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:5/24/09 (11:51) 
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 5/23/09 (12:54)

Trading Styles and Technique

I believe one very important element of trading is choosing a style the suits me....

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One suggestion I would make regarding subs, is not to leave a trail of so many killed systems. I suspect it makes potential, and even existing, subs nervous, especially during drawdowns.
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

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I seldom see patterns of interest in the market however it is hard to miss the obvious. I am sitting here looking at charts of the various indexes. SPY, MDY, DIA, QQQQ and IWM.

SPY is the chart that caught my eye. Using a candle stick setting going from 5-4-09 to 5-26-09 we are in a sideways market. With todays candle looking almost identical to 5-4-09. There seems to be a definite support level around 88.50. Today we opened under that level and had a strait up day closing on almost the days high. What was a disappointment in the bull message was the volume. I like to use a 50 moving average on volume. Since 4-2-09 the volume of SPY has not gone over the moving average. Just touching it a couple of times. The moving average on volume is headed down. The moving average on volume could very well be signaling a failed rally in the near future.

Looking at the same time period on IWM I see today the candle appears to make a larger up move. Also today the volume moving average was taken out considerably with IWMs volume.

All of the index ETFs today show a textbook example of a bullish engulfing pattern. I have a poster here in my office given to me by Steven Bigalow of http://candlestickforum.com. There is no mistake here if you are a candle enthusiast tomorrow is a perfect set up for an up day. Closing higher than it opened.

That being said looking at my tea leaves and how I calculate our signal. I suspect tomorrow to close higher than it opened and we get a cash or short signal. I believe our signals tomorrow will likely be 1 day signals.

Rick Haines
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

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533 days and we have doubled our money!

Rick Haines
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 6/01/09 (21:21)

533 days and we have doubled our money!

Rick Haines

Congrats Rick!

I hope your success continues...

Kevin
  
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Subject:Introduction to SMA
Posted by:Index ( C2 Score: 975)  New msg
 
Ignore user's posts for week month forever
When:6/02/09 (13:18) 
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 6/01/09 (21:21)

533 days and we have doubled our money!

Rick Haines

congrats
  
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In response to post by Rick Haines of 4/04/08 (17:41)

I would like to take a moment and invite Collective2 users to take a look at my stock trading signal SMA. New only 109 days old. Although still new it seems to be off to a fairly good start. SMA is currently listed on the Best Systems list along with the Best Stock System list....

See entire

I hate to see SMA take 3 losing trades like this. Looking at the history I see we had 6 winning trades in a row before these losers. Because of this loss with Extreme Trader I looked at the back test and C2 history of the IWM signal. This is what I have come up with.

The IWM signal goes back to 6-21-05 or 12-17-07 audited on C2.

Going back to the start of the back test.

159 trades.

There are 33 losers.

23 single losses.

2 times of 2 losses in a row.

2 times of 3 losses in a row.

126 winners.

So statically speaking it is unusual to have 2 or more losing trades in a row with the IWM signal of SMA and Extreme Trader.

If that did not confuse this certainly will. I was sitting in a Hotel room in Chicago Wednesday morning. I was listening to CNBC and watching the market on my computer. I do this at home however at home I do not listen to CNBC I just watch the numbers. I do not listen to CNBC at home because I already know how and what to think about on my own.

There seemed to be a common theme that morning and that was Bernanke had testified to that fact the Federal Reserve will not monetize the deficit. Since it was a theme the talking heads had continued to repeat it caught my attention. So I began to listen. Sure enough they played a repeat of Bernanke testifying about the Federal Reserve not monetizing the deficit. This sounded so elegant and poetic it got me to wondering what does monetize mean? It did not take long for Sue Herrera explained monetizing the deficit meant printing money to pay the deficit.

Like my mind often does, I starting thinking about not monetizing the deficit. All of a sudden a circuit breaker popped. I thought the deficit is printed money. Did we not borrow a whole lot of money to fund these major corporations to make sure they did not go out of business for their poor business practices? And is that borrowed money not printed at the Federal Reserve?

So I am now assured and thankful. CNBC and the Federal Reserve has helped me again. We can all sleep better knowing the government will not print more money to pay for the money we printed recently.

Have a great weekend.

Rick Haines



  
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