Model Account Details
Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.
|Includes dividends and cash-settled expirations:||$2,220||Itemized|
|Total System Equity||$106,569|
Open positions are hidden from non-subscribers.
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- Strategy began2/22/2008
- Starting Unit Size$100,000
- Strategy Age (days)3143.86
- Age105 months ago
- What it tradesStocks
- # Trades70
- # Profitable33
- % Profitable47.10%
- Avg trade duration87.3 days
- Max peak-to-valley drawdown%
- drawdown periodDec , - Dec ,
- Annual return (compounded)0.7%
- Avg win$1,754
- Avg loss$1,447
- Model Account Values (Raw)
- Margin Used$3,819
- Buying Power$104,126
- W:L ratio1.12:1
- Sharpe Ratio0.034
- Sortino Ratio0.049
- Calmar Ratio0.06
- Return Statistics
- Ann Return (w trading costs)0.3%
- Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.7%
- Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
- Chance of 10% account loss50.00%
- Chance of 20% account loss17.50%
- Chance of 30% account lossn/a
- Chance of 40% account lossn/a
- Chance of 50% account lossn/a
- Trades-Own-System Certification
- Trades Own System?0
- TOS percentn/a
- Subscription Price
- Billing Period (days)30
- Trial Days0
- Win / Loss
- Avg Win$1,755
- Avg Loss$1,447
- # Winners33
- # Losers37
- % Winners47.1%
- Avg Position Time (mins)125688.00
- Avg Position Time (hrs)2094.79
- Avg Trade Length87.3 days
- Last Trade Ago2962
Strategy DescriptionStellar is a long-only, script-driven EOD (End-of-Day) swing trading system that utilizes regression and money-flow analysis to identify price aberations in Naz/S&P-100 equities which historically precede short-term price increases with ~62% probability (based on a 10 year 1000+ trade backtest history). The system is comprised of two parallel, moderately-correlated algorithms which generate a combination of market and limit entry orders outside of market hours.
All positions are held for exactly 2 trading days. Profit targets and stoplosses are optional. C2 position sizes are 19.5% of available leveraged capital (2X margin) thus a hypothetical 100k account with 200k purchasing power could open a maximum of 5 positions at 39k each (assuming 5k total leeway allowance). Average exposure with margin is ~40%. Stellar can be easily scaled for a variety of account sizes with a recommended minimum of 1k per position.
Before subscribing please acknowledge that past performance (backtest and C2 out-of-sample) is not indicative of future performance and significant deviations from posted metrics (positive and negative) are not only possible but increasingly more likely with time. This system is intended to supplement other investment strategies.
More detailed information is forthcoming.
subscribed on #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#
Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.
Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results
The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.
- Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
- Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
- All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
- "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.
Trading is risky
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.