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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

AT FX Trading
(125444678)

Created by: Andr3as Andr3as
Started: 09/2019
Forex
Last trade: 799 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $200.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

-0.9%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(16.1%)
Max Drawdown
26
Num Trades
30.8%
Win Trades
1.1 : 1
Profit Factor
9.1%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2019                                                        +2.7%+3.6%(1.1%)(2%)+3.1%
2020+7.2%+2.4%(3.3%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(2.3%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(1.4%)(0.2%)+0.8%
2021+0.2%(3.3%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.5%)(0.8%)(6.1%)
2022(1.4%)  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  (1.4%)
2023  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2024  -    -    -                                                        0.0

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Show More details Show Fewer details
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
11/17/21 2:00 EUR/GBP EUR/GBP LONG 11 0.83947 1/19/22 6:29 0.83149 1.24%
Trade id #138222224
Max drawdown($1,199)
Time1/19/22 6:29
Quant open11
Worst price0.83147
Drawdown as % of equity-1.24%
($1,198)
10/27/21 10:11 EUR/CAD EUR/CAD LONG 20 1.43097 11/15 15:15 1.42350 1.22%
Trade id #137974487
Max drawdown($1,211)
Time11/15/21 15:15
Quant open20
Worst price1.42340
Drawdown as % of equity-1.22%
($1,194)
2/14/21 23:01 CAD/JPY CAD/JPY SHORT 17 82.950 2/15 21:22 83.651 1.12%
Trade id #134057092
Max drawdown($1,145)
Time2/15/21 21:22
Quant open17
Worst price83.662
Drawdown as % of equity-1.12%
($1,129)
1/6/21 9:54 EUR/NOK EUR/NOK LONG 9 10.36182 2/10 3:57 10.20990 1.58%
Trade id #133209115
Max drawdown($1,625)
Time2/10/21 3:57
Quant open9
Worst price10.20970
Drawdown as % of equity-1.58%
($1,626)
11/10/20 22:20 EUR/NZD EUR/NZD LONG 18 1.71396 11/23 20:01 1.70399 1.31%
Trade id #132189723
Max drawdown($1,376)
Time11/23/20 20:01
Quant open18
Worst price1.70300
Drawdown as % of equity-1.31%
($1,247)
6/2/20 5:40 AUD/JPY AUD/JPY SHORT 16 73.950 6/2 10:27 74.700 0.94%
Trade id #129305046
Max drawdown($1,013)
Time6/2/20 10:27
Quant open16
Worst price74.638
Drawdown as % of equity-0.94%
($1,105)
6/1/20 10:53 EUR/AUD EUR/AUD LONG 17 1.64349 6/2 4:27 1.63350 1.05%
Trade id #129288867
Max drawdown($1,153)
Time6/1/20 17:12
Quant open17
Worst price1.63351
Drawdown as % of equity-1.05%
($1,160)
3/22/20 17:31 NZD/CAD NZD/CAD LONG 6 0.81497 3/22 17:31 0.81497 n/a $0
3/6/20 9:25 NZD/CAD NZD/CAD SHORT 15 0.85370 3/9 6:50 0.86370 1%
Trade id #127887295
Max drawdown($1,097)
Time3/9/20 6:50
Quant open15
Worst price0.86352
Drawdown as % of equity-1.00%
($1,101)
2/28/20 9:28 EUR/JPY EUR/JPY LONG 14 119.075 3/8 18:50 118.188 1.04%
Trade id #127762531
Max drawdown($1,157)
Time3/8/20 18:10
Quant open14
Worst price118.204
Drawdown as % of equity-1.04%
($1,197)
2/5/20 8:48 AUD/CAD AUD/CAD SHORT 16 0.89900 3/3 10:03 0.87491 0.06%
Trade id #127371298
Max drawdown($69)
Time2/5/20 9:10
Quant open16
Worst price0.89958
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
$2,889
2/28/20 3:24 USD/CNH USD/CNH LONG 26 6.99150 3/2 2:45 6.96140 0.94%
Trade id #127757560
Max drawdown($1,074)
Time3/2/20 2:42
Quant open26
Worst price6.96266
Drawdown as % of equity-0.94%
($1,125)
1/30/20 5:25 GBP/AUD GBP/AUD SHORT 7 1.93550 1/31 3:13 1.95800 0.95%
Trade id #127282469
Max drawdown($1,057)
Time1/31/20 3:13
Quant open7
Worst price1.95797
Drawdown as % of equity-0.95%
($1,055)
1/16/20 6:24 AUD/JPY AUD/JPY SHORT 18 76.150 1/30 6:27 73.761 0.14%
Trade id #127033466
Max drawdown($155)
Time1/16/20 8:20
Quant open18
Worst price76.245
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
$3,950
1/16/20 8:19 NZD/JPY NZD/JPY SHORT 21 73.280 1/30 6:24 71.317 0.12%
Trade id #127034404
Max drawdown($125)
Time1/16/20 9:34
Quant open21
Worst price73.346
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
$3,788
1/7/20 4:23 EUR/AUD EUR/AUD SHORT 11 1.62151 1/28 4:00 1.63451 0.86%
Trade id #126893479
Max drawdown($953)
Time1/28/20 4:00
Quant open11
Worst price1.63433
Drawdown as % of equity-0.86%
($964)
1/9/20 4:40 USD/CAD USD/CAD SHORT 23 1.30500 1/22 10:01 1.31086 0.92%
Trade id #126926598
Max drawdown($967)
Time1/9/20 10:50
Quant open23
Worst price1.31049
Drawdown as % of equity-0.92%
($1,028)
1/12/20 22:03 USD/CNH USD/CNH LONG 26 6.89749 1/13 20:14 6.86996 0.94%
Trade id #126962319
Max drawdown($1,003)
Time1/13/20 20:14
Quant open26
Worst price6.87094
Drawdown as % of equity-0.94%
($1,042)
1/3/20 5:37 EUR/JPY EUR/JPY LONG 24 120.300 1/13 12:31 122.129 0.29%
Trade id #126847409
Max drawdown($295)
Time1/3/20 6:39
Quant open24
Worst price120.167
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
$3,994
12/12/19 17:04 AUD/JPY AUD/JPY SHORT 18 75.754 12/27 6:20 76.350 0.93%
Trade id #126606218
Max drawdown($963)
Time12/27/19 6:19
Quant open18
Worst price76.341
Drawdown as % of equity-0.93%
($980)
12/12/19 17:05 NZD/JPY NZD/JPY SHORT 10 72.301 12/27 5:26 73.300 0.87%
Trade id #126606238
Max drawdown($903)
Time12/27/19 5:24
Quant open10
Worst price73.291
Drawdown as % of equity-0.87%
($913)
10/28/19 8:44 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 20 0.99601 11/5 5:13 0.99057 0.2%
Trade id #125972114
Max drawdown($205)
Time10/28/19 8:53
Quant open20
Worst price0.99703
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
$1,098
9/23/19 4:38 NZD/JPY NZD/JPY LONG 9 67.300 10/31 5:51 69.233 0.3%
Trade id #125455510
Max drawdown($309)
Time10/2/19 0:00
Quant open9
Worst price66.931
Drawdown as % of equity-0.30%
$1,607
10/11/19 11:22 CAD/JPY CAD/JPY SHORT 14 82.370 10/21 21:18 83.120 0.92%
Trade id #125743010
Max drawdown($962)
Time10/21/19 21:18
Quant open14
Worst price83.117
Drawdown as % of equity-0.92%
($966)
9/27/19 3:00 GBP/AUD GBP/AUD LONG 8 1.81950 10/16 14:25 1.89596 0.64%
Trade id #125528362
Max drawdown($644)
Time10/10/19 0:00
Quant open8
Worst price1.80759
Drawdown as % of equity-0.64%
$4,135
9/24/19 10:04 NZD/CAD NZD/CAD SHORT 22 0.83900 10/3 5:10 0.83863 0.4%
Trade id #125477873
Max drawdown($405)
Time9/24/19 22:43
Quant open22
Worst price0.84144
Drawdown as % of equity-0.40%
$61

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    9/21/2019
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $100,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    1646.41
  • Age
    55 months ago
  • What it trades
    Forex
  • # Trades
    26
  • # Profitable
    8
  • % Profitable
    30.80%
  • Avg trade duration
    13.9 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    16.12%
  • drawdown period
    March 02, 2020 - Jan 26, 2022
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    -0.9%
  • Avg win
    $2,690
  • Avg loss
    $1,057
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $102,491
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $102,491
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.13:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.69
  • Sortino Ratio
    -0.95
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.177
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -78.73%
  • Correlation to SP500
    -0.00020
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    75.50%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    -0.9%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    19.20%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.90%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -0.009%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    1.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    0.5%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    2.27%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $1,057
  • Avg Win
    $2,690
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $19,030.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    55
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $21,522.000
  • # Winners
    8
  • Num Months Winners
    5
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    18
  • % Winners
    30.8%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    20056.40
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    334.27
  • Avg Trade Length
    13.9 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    859
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    2.24
  • Daily leverage (max)
    7.34
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.01
  • Beta
    0.00
  • Treynor Index
    -
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.38
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    8.457
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.103
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -0.991
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.118
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00487
  • SD
    0.08699
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.05604
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.05273
  • df
    13.00000
  • t
    -0.06052
  • p
    0.51068
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.86971
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.75969
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.86741
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.76196
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.09421
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.11650
  • Upside part of mean
    0.10951
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.11438
  • Upside SD
    0.06597
  • Downside SD
    0.05174
  • N nonnegative terms
    4.00000
  • N negative terms
    10.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    14.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.51329
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00487
  • SD of predictor
    0.41631
  • SD of criterion
    0.08699
  • Covariance
    -0.00640
  • r
    -0.17669
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.03692
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.01408
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00794
  • DF error
    12.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.62186
  • p(b)
    0.58835
  • t(a)
    0.16004
  • p(a)
    0.47692
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.16628
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.09244
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.17756
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.20572
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.13203
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.01408
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00833
  • SD
    0.08614
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.09667
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.09097
  • df
    13.00000
  • t
    -0.10442
  • p
    0.51843
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.90982
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.72009
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.90588
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.72394
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.15915
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.04767
  • Upside part of mean
    0.10714
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.11547
  • Upside SD
    0.06448
  • Downside SD
    0.05232
  • N nonnegative terms
    4.00000
  • N negative terms
    10.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    14.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.42417
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00833
  • SD of predictor
    0.41341
  • SD of criterion
    0.08614
  • Covariance
    -0.00502
  • r
    -0.14106
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.02939
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.00414
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00788
  • DF error
    12.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.49358
  • p(b)
    0.57053
  • t(a)
    0.04815
  • p(a)
    0.49305
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.15913
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.10035
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.18317
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.19145
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.28332
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.00414
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.04074
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.05062
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02652
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04097
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    14.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97118
  • Quartile 1
    0.98242
  • Median
    0.99945
  • Quartile 3
    1.00619
  • Maximum
    1.04882
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97546
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99600
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03427
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02377
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14286
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.04672
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.62968
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02770
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02958
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -1.05692
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02583
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02640
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00110
  • Quartile 1
    0.02694
  • Median
    0.05279
  • Quartile 3
    0.07864
  • Maximum
    0.10449
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00110
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.10449
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.05170
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.01981
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.01977
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.18923
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.18923
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.39064
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00660
  • SD
    0.06031
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.10945
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.10919
  • df
    306.00000
  • t
    -0.11848
  • p
    0.54712
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.92005
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.70125
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.91984
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.70146
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.15955
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.58135
  • Upside part of mean
    0.23094
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.23754
  • Upside SD
    0.04375
  • Downside SD
    0.04138
  • N nonnegative terms
    54.00000
  • N negative terms
    253.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    307.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.51705
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00660
  • SD of predictor
    0.39846
  • SD of criterion
    0.06031
  • Covariance
    0.00108
  • r
    0.04507
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00682
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.01000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00364
  • DF error
    305.00000
  • t(b)
    0.78792
  • p(b)
    0.21568
  • t(a)
    -0.18109
  • p(a)
    0.57179
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.01022
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.02386
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.12019
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.09993
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.96768
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.01013
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00841
  • SD
    0.06027
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.13957
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.13923
  • df
    306.00000
  • t
    -0.15108
  • p
    0.55999
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.95013
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.67120
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.94989
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.67143
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.20229
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.53002
  • Upside part of mean
    0.22996
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.23837
  • Upside SD
    0.04350
  • Downside SD
    0.04158
  • N nonnegative terms
    54.00000
  • N negative terms
    253.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    307.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.43683
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00841
  • SD of predictor
    0.40098
  • SD of criterion
    0.06027
  • Covariance
    0.00115
  • r
    0.04754
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00715
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.01153
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00364
  • DF error
    305.00000
  • t(b)
    0.83110
  • p(b)
    0.20328
  • t(a)
    -0.20656
  • p(a)
    0.58176
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00977
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.02406
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.12140
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.09834
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.17734
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.01153
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00614
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00768
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00281
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00582
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    307.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98504
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.02095
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99673
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00359
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    58.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.18893
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99566
  • Number of outliers high
    56.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.18241
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00494
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.04361
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00258
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00410
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.27077
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00425
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00617
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    11.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00076
  • Quartile 1
    0.00337
  • Median
    0.00704
  • Quartile 3
    0.01983
  • Maximum
    0.11120
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00181
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00547
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00894
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.05697
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01646
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.09091
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.11120
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.59852
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.06864
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.17881
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    4.33788
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.19857
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.01972
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.01969
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.17702
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.34554
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    2.56249
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.14796
  • SD
    0.04387
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -3.37274
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -3.35324
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -2.38489
  • p
    0.60237
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -6.16836
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.56456
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -6.15486
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.55163
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -3.74773
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.20793
  • Upside part of mean
    0.04769
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.19564
  • Upside SD
    0.02085
  • Downside SD
    0.03948
  • N nonnegative terms
    3.00000
  • N negative terms
    128.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.81139
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.14796
  • SD of predictor
    0.39514
  • SD of criterion
    0.04387
  • Covariance
    -0.00031
  • r
    -0.01775
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00197
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.14636
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00194
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.20164
  • p(b)
    0.51130
  • t(a)
    -2.33156
  • p(a)
    0.62715
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.02131
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.01737
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.27055
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02216
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    75.08020
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.14636
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.14894
  • SD
    0.04400
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -3.38509
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -3.36552
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -2.39362
  • p
    0.60273
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -6.18093
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.57669
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -6.16735
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.56369
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -3.75225
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.19582
  • Upside part of mean
    0.04747
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.19641
  • Upside SD
    0.02074
  • Downside SD
    0.03969
  • N nonnegative terms
    3.00000
  • N negative terms
    128.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.73225
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.14894
  • SD of predictor
    0.39710
  • SD of criterion
    0.04400
  • Covariance
    -0.00033
  • r
    -0.01906
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00211
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.14739
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00195
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.21651
  • p(b)
    0.51213
  • t(a)
    -2.34479
  • p(a)
    0.62783
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.00600
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.02141
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.01719
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.27177
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02302
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    70.52800
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.14739
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00503
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00616
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00256
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00540
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98504
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.01226
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99745
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00073
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    16.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.12214
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99474
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00605
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -7.49682
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00054
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00054
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.41573
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00256
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00434
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00001
  • Quartile 1
    0.01470
  • Median
    0.02939
  • Quartile 3
    0.04408
  • Maximum
    0.05877
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00001
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.05877
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02938
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -407154000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    695
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.11744
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.11400
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -1.93985
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.93985
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -18.51800

Strategy Description

Trading the FX market based on multi time frame trend analysis.

Please beware that this is a relatively long term trading strategy. You will receive trade signals days, even weeks ahead of time. I do not send out "At Market" trades where the strategy entered a trade and send out a signal afterwards.

That means you have plenty of time to even trade this manually.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2019-09-21
Suggested Minimum Capital
$100,000
# Trades
26
# Profitable
8
% Profitable
30.8%
Correlation S&P500
-0.000
Sharpe Ratio
-0.69
Sortino Ratio
-0.95
Beta
-0.00
Alpha
-0.01
Leverage
2.24 Average
7.34 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.