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Aggressive Equity Sleeve

Stocks · Started Jan 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
11.2%
Max Drawdown
86.3%
Trades
108
Win Trades
55.6%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
4.7%

About this strategy

Short term aggressive equity only trading strategy designed for use in margin accounts. This strategy is built to be an 'aggressive equity' trading sleeve within a larger diversified portfolio and/or trading systems. Will employ full use of margin abilities, so it is best to start this strategy small and increase it as you become more comfortable. Goal is to outperform aggressive equity managers and hedge funds on an annual basis.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016107.320.32.546.420.723.2-33.3-16.00.00.00.00.0211.5
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/19/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age130 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades108
# Profitable60
% Profitable55.6%
Avg trade duration6.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown86.3%
drawdown periodApril 12, 2016 - April 18, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)11.2%
Avg win$2,857
Avg loss$2,270

Ratios

W:L ratio1.57
Sharpe Ratio0.31
Sortino Ratio0.75
Calmar Ratio1.38

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life315.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-96.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)11.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity95.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,270
Avg Win$2,857
# Winners60
Sum Trade PL (losers)$108,972
Sum Trade PL (winners)$171,443
Num Months Winners6
# Losers48
% Winners55.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table130

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)9680.83
Avg Position Time (hrs)161.35
Avg Trade Length6.70
Last Trade Ago3713

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta0.11
Treynor Index0.52

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.08
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.09
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.40
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.65
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats84.60
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats53.32
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.15
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.14

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.99
SD1.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df23
t1.26
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.27
Sortino ratio3.79
Upside Potential Ratio4.72
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD1.10
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms19
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.72
Mean of criterion0.99
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion1.12
Covariance-0.04
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.35
Mean Square Error1.28
DF error22
t(b)-0.59
p(b)0.72
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.02
Jensen alpha (a)1.35
Mean0.60
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df23
t1.08
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.14
Sortino ratio1.88
Upside Potential Ratio2.77
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.72
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms19
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.67
Mean of criterion0.60
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance-0.02
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.77
Mean Square Error0.65
DF error22
t(b)-0.40
p(b)0.65
t(a)1.09
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.77
VaR(95%)0.28
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.34
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean1.18
SD1.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df524
t1.39
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.37
Sortino ratio2.26
Upside Potential Ratio5.37
Upside part of mean2.80
Downside part of mean-1.62
Upside SD1.08
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms455
N of observations525
Mean of predictor0.74
Mean of criterion1.18
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion1.20
Covariance0.01
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.12
Mean Square Error1.43
DF error523
t(b)0.50
p(b)0.31
t(a)1.32
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.80
Treynor index (mean / b)16.01
Jensen alpha (a)1.12
Mean0.60
SD1.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df524
t0.82
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio0.92
Upside Potential Ratio3.69
Upside part of mean2.40
Downside part of mean-1.80
Upside SD0.81
Downside SD0.65
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms455
N of observations525
Mean of predictor0.67
Mean of criterion0.60
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion1.04
Covariance0.01
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.56
Mean Square Error1.08
DF error523
t(b)0.55
p(b)0.29
t(a)0.75
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.01
Treynor index (mean / b)8.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.96
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6811549696000000
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.00166184061867e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations24
Minimum0.64
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.43
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.78
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.50
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.71
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.96
Number of observations525
Minimum0.50
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.16
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low64
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high70
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.41
Quartile 10.41
Median0.41
Quartile 30.41
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.64
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.47
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-18.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.42
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.76
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.77
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-418536928
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)6
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.88
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.58
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.88
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.88
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.19
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 177 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LABD long8000Jul 29, 2016Aug 1, 2016($14,975)
SOXL short600Jul 28, 2016Jul 29, 2016$211
LABD long8000Jul 28, 2016Jul 29, 2016($4,239)
LABD long9000Jul 27, 2016Jul 27, 2016($8,600)
DWTI short100Jul 27, 2016Jul 27, 2016$40
TQQQ short100Jul 27, 2016Jul 27, 2016($91)
SOXS long1000Jul 27, 2016Jul 27, 2016($91)
LABD long9000Jul 26, 2016Jul 27, 2016($11,181)
SOXL short500Jul 26, 2016Jul 27, 2016($1,407)
TECS long2000Jul 26, 2016Jul 26, 2016($365)
SPXS long1000Jul 26, 2016Jul 26, 2016($84)
LABD long10500Jul 7, 2016Jul 26, 2016($18,762)
TECS long1000Jul 22, 2016Jul 26, 2016($294)
EVH short3000Jul 13, 2016Jul 22, 2016($1,000)
TECS long2000Jul 20, 2016Jul 22, 2016$340
XNCR short1000Jul 21, 2016Jul 22, 2016$141
SPXS long1000Jul 20, 2016Jul 20, 2016($125)
OMN short1500Jul 14, 2016Jul 20, 2016$137
SPXL long300Jul 18, 2016Jul 19, 2016($309)
TECS long4000Jul 6, 2016Jul 18, 2016($9,194)
CREE short500Jul 14, 2016Jul 15, 2016$103
YRD short500Jul 13, 2016Jul 14, 2016$0
NTDOF short50Jul 12, 2016Jul 13, 2016$596
DY short200Jul 8, 2016Jul 12, 2016($245)
SGY short2500Jul 6, 2016Jul 11, 2016($2,154)
DRD short2000Jul 6, 2016Jul 8, 2016($252)
LEDS short4000Jul 7, 2016Jul 8, 2016$2,458
CLCD short2500Jul 1, 2016Jul 8, 2016$1,505
CF long250Jul 6, 2016Jul 8, 2016$233
AIV short500Jul 1, 2016Jul 6, 2016($218)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.