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Inactive Compact

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.7%
Max Drawdown
31.6%
Trades
260
Win Trades
44.6%
Profit Factor
2.50
Win Months
59.5%

About this strategy

Don't sub because this isn't active. Look at Not Your Father's VIX instead.

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20175.70.6-1.315.91.323.2
20184.2-16.0-8.11.45.1-2.90.87.2-1.6-12.31.8-12.5-30.9
201912.79.5-1.24.4-2.11.1-3.64.5-2.02.24.04.638.2
20201.7-5.3-12.01.113.30.68.93.1-4.44.415.59.238.0
20211.23.1-2.65.0-3.85.1-0.92.3-3.66.2-6.3-0.54.5
2022-16.41.02.7-10.2-3.0-7.211.13.3-15.18.11.0-7.6-31.1
202314.2-1.3-3.61.20.67.32.7-5.9-3.6-6.49.211.225.6
2024-2.04.64.0-5.44.1-1.82.52.91.71.312.5-6.118.3
20252.7-4.3-5.0-6.79.62.53.71.42.71.8-5.16.99.0
20264.40.0-4.610.65.4-0.7-3.52.9-3.0-2.48.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/18/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$17,794
Age111 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades260
# Profitable116
% Profitable44.6%
Avg trade duration20.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown31.6%
drawdown periodJan 12, 2018 - April 09, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.7%
Avg win$276
Avg loss$94

Ratios

W:L ratio2.47
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.46
Calmar Ratio1.09

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.73
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life215.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-12.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity10.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss60.5%
Chance of 20% account loss8.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)529
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$94
Avg Win$276
# Winners116
Sum Trade PL (losers)$13,506
Sum Trade PL (winners)$31,996
Num Months Winners67
# Losers144
% Winners44.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1372

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table111

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)29980.82
Avg Position Time (hrs)499.68
Avg Trade Length20.80
Last Trade Ago2967

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta1.01
Treynor Index0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.77
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.53
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats35.73
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.25
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.38
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.42
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.01
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df13
t0.06
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.68
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms5
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.03
r0.84
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error12
t(b)5.30
p(b)0.08
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
Mean-0.02
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.06
df13
t-0.07
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.75
Sortino ratio-0.08
Upside Potential Ratio1.51
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms5
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.03
r0.84
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.63
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error12
t(b)5.43
p(b)0.08
t(a)-0.70
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.00
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.01
df311
t0.01
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.81
Sortino ratio0.02
Upside Potential Ratio7.15
Upside part of mean0.93
Downside part of mean-0.93
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms158
N negative terms154
N of observations312
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error310
t(b)7.00
p(b)0
t(a)-0.23
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.01
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df311
t-0.08
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72
Sortino ratio-0.10
Upside Potential Ratio6.99
Upside part of mean0.93
Downside part of mean-0.94
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms158
N negative terms154
N of observations312
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error310
t(b)7.06
p(b)0
t(a)-0.30
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.09
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.78
df130
t-0.56
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.99
Sortino ratio-1.06
Upside Potential Ratio6.86
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.59
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)8.32
p(b)0.15
t(a)-0.84
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.11
Mean-0.10
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.84
df130
t-0.60
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio-1.12
Upside Potential Ratio6.78
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.59
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)8.37
p(b)0.15
t(a)-0.86
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-44.88
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations312
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.25
Quartile 10.25
Median0.25
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-32
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)87
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.06
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.68
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.49

Trading record

Placed 328 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VST long38May 2, 2018May 11, 2018$1
FTD long165Apr 10, 2018May 11, 2018$25
NGVC long102May 7, 2018May 11, 2018$162
THC long28May 7, 2018May 11, 2018$31
ATTU long90May 10, 2018May 11, 2018$39
BGFV long211May 4, 2018May 11, 2018($127)
TUSK long26Apr 25, 2018May 11, 2018$46
EC long40Apr 23, 2018May 11, 2018$28
QNST long71May 8, 2018May 11, 2018$44
PAY long38Apr 16, 2018May 11, 2018$6
HBIO long145Apr 23, 2018May 11, 2018($163)
CLUB long79May 7, 2018May 11, 2018$30
CORR long23May 2, 2018May 11, 2018($18)
PCMI long73May 8, 2018May 11, 2018($23)
GPRK long64Apr 3, 2018May 11, 2018$131
NSIT long20May 7, 2018May 11, 2018$40
UGI long18May 9, 2018May 11, 2018$26
HEAR long174Apr 16, 2018May 11, 2018$916
TNDM long121Apr 16, 2018May 11, 2018$202
NGHC long34Apr 30, 2018May 11, 2018($1)
SVU long51Apr 9, 2018May 10, 2018($35)
DNR long272Apr 24, 2018May 9, 2018$90
LUNA long254Apr 9, 2018May 8, 2018($25)
GES long40Apr 2, 2018May 8, 2018$83
REGI long62Apr 3, 2018May 7, 2018$24
DXPE long21Apr 2, 2018May 4, 2018($48)
CNC long7Apr 2, 2018May 2, 2018$13
NXEO long77Apr 3, 2018Apr 30, 2018($8)
VST long38Apr 9, 2018Apr 16, 2018$829
ZAGG long66Mar 28, 2018Apr 2, 2018($18)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.