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Weekly Wednesday

Futures · Started Sep 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-72.5%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
110
Win Trades
97.3%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
2.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201725.89.620.7-10.549.1
2018-34.0-61.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-74.5
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/5/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age111 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades110
# Profitable107
% Profitable97.3%
Avg trade duration17.8 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodFeb 14, 2018 - Feb 19, 2018
Cumul. Return-61.2%
Avg win$247
Avg loss$13,033

Ratios

W:L ratio0.68
Sharpe Ratio0.12
Sortino Ratio0.26
Calmar Ratio-0.40

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life210.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-71.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-72.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.6%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-7.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity397.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)664
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)277

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$13,033
Avg Win$247
# Winners107
Sum Trade PL (losers)$39,098
Sum Trade PL (winners)$26,395
Num Months Winners3
# Losers3
% Winners97.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table110

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1068.58
Avg Position Time (hrs)17.81
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago3165

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.16
Treynor Index0.19

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.13
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat10.62
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades3.91
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.82
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.75
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.29
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats47.67
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.16
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.84
SD1.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.65
df5
t-0.55
p0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio-0.97
Upside Potential Ratio1.43
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-2.07
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.87
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms3
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.84
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion1.09
Covariance0.06
r0.59
b (slope, estimate of beta)6.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.67
Mean Square Error0.95
DF error4
t(b)1.48
p(b)0.11
t(a)-1.12
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta19.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-1.67
Mean-1.47
SD1.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.02
df5
t-0.85
p0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio-1.35
Upside Potential Ratio1.02
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-2.57
Upside SD0.48
Downside SD1.08
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms3
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-1.47
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion1.21
Covariance0.07
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)8.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.44
Mean Square Error1.10
DF error4
t(b)1.64
p(b)0.09
t(a)-1.53
p(a)0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta22.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.99
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.18
Jensen alpha (a)-2.44
VaR(95%)0.50
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.57
VaR(95%)0.40
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.59
Mean-0.30
SD1.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.21
df140
t-0.15
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.46
Sortino ratio-0.31
Upside Potential Ratio4.66
Upside part of mean4.65
Downside part of mean-4.95
Upside SD1.05
Downside SD1.00
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms71
N of observations141
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.30
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion1.45
Covariance0.04
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.17
Mean Square Error2.07
DF error139
t(b)1.82
p(b)0.40
t(a)-0.28
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.22
Jensen alpha (a)-0.55
Mean-1.36
SD1.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.91
df140
t-0.67
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.76
Sortino ratio-1.13
Upside Potential Ratio3.51
Upside part of mean4.22
Downside part of mean-5.59
Upside SD0.86
Downside SD1.20
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms71
N of observations141
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-1.36
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion1.48
Covariance0.03
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.58
Mean Square Error2.17
DF error139
t(b)1.70
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.78
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.04
Jensen alpha (a)-1.58
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean-0.67
SD1.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.45
df130
t-0.32
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.32
Sortino ratio-0.65
Upside Potential Ratio4.22
Upside part of mean4.33
Downside part of mean-5.00
Upside SD1.05
Downside SD1.03
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.67
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion1.48
Covariance0.04
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.87
Mean Square Error2.15
DF error129
t(b)1.70
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.51
Jensen alpha (a)-0.87
Mean-1.77
SD1.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.16
df130
t-0.83
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.61
Sortino ratio-1.43
Upside Potential Ratio3.15
Upside part of mean3.91
Downside part of mean-5.68
Upside SD0.86
Downside SD1.24
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-1.77
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.51
Covariance0.03
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.95
Mean Square Error2.27
DF error129
t(b)1.58
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.91
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.41
Jensen alpha (a)-1.95
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.58
Quartile 10.66
Median0.93
Quartile 31.19
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.61
Mean of quarter 20.75
Mean of quarter 31.11
Mean of quarter 41.26
Inter Quartile Range0.52
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations141
Minimum0.61
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.63
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations131
Minimum0.61
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.63
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high15
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.73
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.72
Median0.72
Quartile 30.72
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.90
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.90
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.90
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)6.64
VaR(95%) (regression method)3.87
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.76
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.35
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.95
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.74
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.09
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.18
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.92
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.52
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.57

Trading record

Placed 114 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL H8long5Feb 4, 2018Feb 20, 2018($14,900)
QCL H8long2Jan 30, 2018Jan 31, 2018$944
QCL H8short3Jan 23, 2018Jan 29, 2018$876
QCL G8short5Dec 22, 2017Jan 10, 2018($24,210)
QCL G8long1Dec 22, 2017Dec 22, 2017$94
QCL G8short1Dec 21, 2017Dec 22, 2017$162
QCL G8long2Dec 21, 2017Dec 21, 2017$286
QCL G8short1Dec 20, 2017Dec 21, 2017$162
QCL G8short1Dec 20, 2017Dec 20, 2017$133
QCL G8long2Dec 19, 2017Dec 19, 2017$198
QCL G8long1Dec 19, 2017Dec 19, 2017$142
QCL G8long4Dec 18, 2017Dec 19, 2017$515
QCL G8long1Dec 15, 2017Dec 15, 2017$138
QCL G8long1Dec 15, 2017Dec 15, 2017$182
QCL G8long1Dec 14, 2017Dec 14, 2017$80
QCL G8long4Dec 13, 2017Dec 14, 2017$811
QCL G8long2Dec 12, 2017Dec 12, 2017$122
QCL G8long1Dec 12, 2017Dec 12, 2017$93
QCL G8short3Dec 11, 2017Dec 12, 2017$529
QCL G8long1Dec 11, 2017Dec 11, 2017($76)
QCL G8long1Dec 11, 2017Dec 11, 2017$176
QCL G8long2Dec 10, 2017Dec 11, 2017$304
QCL G8long2Dec 8, 2017Dec 8, 2017$250
QCL G8long1Dec 8, 2017Dec 8, 2017$132
QCL G8long1Dec 7, 2017Dec 7, 2017$152
QCL G8long2Dec 6, 2017Dec 7, 2017$251
QCL G8long3Dec 6, 2017Dec 6, 2017$146
QCL G8long4Dec 3, 2017Dec 5, 2017$404
QCL F8short3Dec 1, 2017Dec 1, 2017$416
QCL F8long2Nov 30, 2017Nov 30, 2017$274

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.