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Inactive SF

Equity · Stocks · Started Nov 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-7.5%
Max Drawdown
19.4%
Trades
222
Win Trades
43.2%
Profit Factor
3.40
Win Months
52.8%

About this strategy

Don't sub because this isn't active. Look at Not Your Father's VIX instead.

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20175.50.25.8
2018-0.0-1.3-7.98.9-1.5-2.80.97.3-2.7-13.50.9-13.0-24.1
201911.310.0-2.73.9-0.5-2.01.9-3.3-1.02.66.73.032.8
2020-1.3-3.0-12.1-0.410.50.95.57.6-1.1-0.319.511.539.5
20212.43.2-1.52.8-5.04.9-3.4-1.0-1.02.2-1.8-1.20.1
2022-17.42.93.6-13.7-8.00.56.410.1-13.01.16.5-5.4-27.0
202310.2-0.8-4.90.80.97.73.4-6.7-4.4-7.98.814.620.5
2024-3.48.61.3-7.75.7-1.37.60.31.2-0.211.7-8.314.1
20254.0-5.6-4.8-6.46.97.21.55.43.83.4-4.43.313.7
20266.5-3.3-4.211.06.92.5-4.0-0.7-2.8-4.66.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/14/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age109 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades222
# Profitable96
% Profitable43.2%
Avg trade duration24.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown19.4%
drawdown periodFeb 08, 2018 - Oct 29, 2018
Cumul. Return-7.3%
Avg win$288
Avg loss$68

Ratios

W:L ratio3.44
Sharpe Ratio0.27
Sortino Ratio0.39
Calmar Ratio0.89

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.71
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life197.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-12.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-7.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity13.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss59.5%
Chance of 20% account loss4.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)529
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$68
Avg Win$288
# Winners96
Sum Trade PL (losers)$8,571
Sum Trade PL (winners)$27,606
Num Months Winners57
# Losers126
% Winners43.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1883

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table108

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)35328.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)588.80
Avg Trade Length24.50
Last Trade Ago2968

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta1.03
Treynor Index0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.55
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats58.82
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats77.03
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.63
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.30
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.02
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.14
df10
t-0.15
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.91
Sortino ratio-0.19
Upside Potential Ratio1.45
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms5
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.80
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error9
t(b)4.00
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.90
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean-0.03
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df10
t-0.21
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.85
Sortino ratio-0.26
Upside Potential Ratio1.37
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms5
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.80
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error9
t(b)4.04
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.95
p(a)0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-0.07
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.52
df249
t-0.51
p0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio-0.69
Upside Potential Ratio6.97
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms120
N negative terms130
N of observations250
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error248
t(b)5.39
p(b)0
t(a)-0.61
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.23
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
Mean-0.08
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.58
df249
t-0.57
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.42
Sortino ratio-0.77
Upside Potential Ratio6.86
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms120
N negative terms130
N of observations250
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error248
t(b)5.39
p(b)0
t(a)-0.66
p(a)0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.26
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.17
df130
t-1.55
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.61
Sortino ratio-2.60
Upside Potential Ratio5.07
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.26
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.28
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)6.93
p(b)0.18
t(a)-1.93
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.51
Jensen alpha (a)-0.28
Mean-0.27
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.23
df130
t-1.58
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.56
Sortino ratio-2.65
Upside Potential Ratio5.00
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.27
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)6.95
p(b)0.18
t(a)-1.95
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.29
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-21.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations250
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.08
Median0.08
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-19
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)263
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.05
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.06
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.46
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.91
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-13.22

Trading record

Placed 298 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VBK long146Jun 14, 2018Aug 30, 2018$1,269
VRTV long45Mar 28, 2018May 11, 2018($332)
ACET long646Apr 20, 2018May 11, 2018$189
AVP long764May 4, 2018May 11, 2018($211)
INT long76May 4, 2018May 11, 2018$34
PBF long44Mar 28, 2018May 11, 2018$354
PCMI long181Mar 28, 2018May 11, 2018$632
REGI long115Mar 28, 2018May 11, 2018$97
SPTN long90Apr 20, 2018May 11, 2018($52)
SVU long101Mar 28, 2018May 11, 2018$61
CORE long73Apr 9, 2018May 11, 2018($219)
ANW long655Mar 28, 2018May 11, 2018$364
TCS long265May 7, 2018May 11, 2018($42)
AGRO long233May 4, 2018May 11, 2018$21
NRG long51May 4, 2018May 11, 2018$71
BMCH long79Apr 9, 2018May 11, 2018$10
GLP long102May 7, 2018May 7, 2018($17)
TCS long279Apr 9, 2018May 7, 2018$189
AMRK long129Mar 28, 2018May 4, 2018$144
ODP long771Mar 28, 2018May 4, 2018$156
GLP long101Mar 28, 2018May 4, 2018$100
ANDE long47Mar 28, 2018May 4, 2018$16
CPSS long406Mar 28, 2018Apr 20, 2018($72)
RYI long181Mar 28, 2018Apr 20, 2018$349
BLDR long60Mar 28, 2018Apr 9, 2018($28)
HRTG long77Mar 28, 2018Apr 9, 2018$47
HZO long62Mar 28, 2018Apr 9, 2018($53)
GLP long52Mar 21, 2018Mar 27, 2018($35)
ANDE long24Mar 21, 2018Mar 27, 2018($52)
VXX long118Mar 22, 2018Mar 26, 2018$63

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.