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The S&P topped at 1503

Futures · Started Dec 2006

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
406
Win Trades
30.0%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
0.0%

About this strategy

This is a S&P emini day trading system. The system is primarily countertrend and seeks to capture short term movements both long and short mainly during morning trading. The majority of trades will be over by 12:00 p.m. EST. This system will also trade occasionally at night after 5 p.m. EST. A position will never be held open into the next trading session. The max stop on any trade will not be larger than 3 points with the majority being 2 points. This system will often imply a strategy of selling half the position at 2 points profit and moving the stop to break even on the remainder so the trade has a chance to profit more without any risk to the initial capital. This system can be traded with 1 contract but the results will differ because you can not scale out after 2 points so it highly suggested that you trade at least 2 contracts or in multiples of 2.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2006-30.2-30.2
2007-63.8-412.4-26.0-7.9-2.0-1.90.00.00.00.00.00.0-259.8
20080.00.00.00.0-22.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/1/2006
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age242 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades406
# Profitable122
% Profitable30.0%
Avg trade duration4.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodFeb 07, 2007 - Feb 28, 2007
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$3,018
Avg loss$1,555

Ratios

W:L ratio0.83
Sharpe Ratio1.20
Sortino Ratio7.41
Calmar Ratio-0.19

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life448.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-635.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-6.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,555
Avg Win$3,018
# Winners122
Sum Trade PL (losers)$441,637
Sum Trade PL (winners)$368,138
Num Months Winners0
# Losers284
% Winners30.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table3

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)244.85
Avg Position Time (hrs)4.08
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago7109

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-2.70
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.15
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.20
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.03
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.78
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats13.33
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats15.80
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean2.12
SD6.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df75
t0.87
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio4.19
Upside Potential Ratio4.96
Upside part of mean2.51
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD6.14
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms7
N of observations76
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion2.12
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion6.17
Covariance-0.03
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.20
Mean Square Error38.60
DF error74
t(b)-0.13
p(b)0.55
t(a)0.87
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.42
Jensen alpha (a)2.20
Mean-0.20
SD1.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.13
df75
t-0.33
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.65
Sortino ratio-0.20
Upside Potential Ratio0.49
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD1.12
Downside SD1.03
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms7
N of observations76
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion1.53
Covariance0.01
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error2.38
DF error74
t(b)0.15
p(b)0.44
t(a)-0.35
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.22
VaR(95%)0.53
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.60
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean50.42
SD49.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df1663
t2.59
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.81
Sortino ratio37.63
Upside Potential Ratio39.61
Upside part of mean53.08
Downside part of mean-2.66
Upside SD49.07
Downside SD1.34
N nonnegative terms1565
N negative terms99
N of observations1664
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion50.42
SD of predictor0.61
SD of criterion49.00
Covariance-2.58
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-6.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)52.81
Mean Square Error2384.62
DF error1662
t(b)-3.53
p(b)0.54
t(a)2.72
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-10.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha14.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha90.84
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.30
Jensen alpha (a)52.81
Mean-0.20
SD6.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.03
df1663
t-0.08
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.74
Sortino ratio-0.05
Upside Potential Ratio1.52
Upside part of mean6.33
Downside part of mean-6.54
Upside SD4.41
Downside SD4.18
N nonnegative terms1565
N negative terms99
N of observations1664
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.61
SD of criterion6.08
Covariance-0.45
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error36.37
DF error1662
t(b)-5.07
p(b)0.56
t(a)-0.00
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.69
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.46
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.54
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.58
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.83
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.59
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations76
Minimum0.11
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum16.45
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.84
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.65
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high3.65
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-338.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.51
Number of observations1664
Minimum0.01
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum82.12
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.81
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low99
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high74
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high5.56
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.99
Quartile 10.99
Median0.99
Quartile 30.99
Maximum0.99
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.06
Median0.13
Quartile 30.77
Maximum0.99
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30.14
Mean of quarter 40.99
Inter Quartile Range0.71
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-401464256
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)21
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.31
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.34
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES M7short1Apr 30, 2007May 1, 2007($158)
@ES M7short1Apr 29, 2007Apr 30, 2007($121)
@ES M7short1Apr 26, 2007Apr 27, 2007$30
@ES M7short1Apr 25, 2007Apr 26, 2007$67
@ES M7short1Apr 25, 2007Apr 25, 2007($383)
@ES M7short1Apr 25, 2007Apr 25, 2007($46)
@ES M7short1Apr 25, 2007Apr 25, 2007($71)
@ES M7short1Apr 24, 2007Apr 25, 2007($246)
@ES M7short1Apr 24, 2007Apr 24, 2007$117
@ES M7short1Apr 23, 2007Apr 24, 2007($71)
@ES M7short1Apr 22, 2007Apr 23, 2007$242
@ES M7short1Apr 22, 2007Apr 22, 2007($33)
@ES M7short1Apr 22, 2007Apr 22, 2007($58)
@ES M7short1Apr 22, 2007Apr 22, 2007($46)
@ES M7short1Apr 20, 2007Apr 20, 2007($33)
@ES M7short1Apr 20, 2007Apr 20, 2007($158)
@ES M7short1Apr 20, 2007Apr 20, 2007($121)
@ES M7short1Apr 19, 2007Apr 20, 2007($396)
@ES M7short1Apr 19, 2007Apr 19, 2007($158)
@ES M7short1Apr 19, 2007Apr 19, 2007($121)
@ES M7short1Apr 17, 2007Apr 18, 2007($133)
@ES M7short1Apr 17, 2007Apr 17, 2007($83)
@ES M7long1Apr 17, 2007Apr 17, 2007$105
@ES M7short1Apr 17, 2007Apr 17, 2007$205
@ES M7short1Apr 16, 2007Apr 17, 2007($258)
@ES M7short1Apr 16, 2007Apr 16, 2007($271)
@ES M7short1Apr 16, 2007Apr 16, 2007($121)
@ES M7short1Apr 16, 2007Apr 16, 2007($71)
@ES M7short1Apr 16, 2007Apr 16, 2007($71)
@ES M7short1Apr 16, 2007Apr 16, 2007($83)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.