Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

The Momentum of Now
(75800796)

Created by: Danny Danny
Started: 08/2012
Stocks
Last trade: Yesterday

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $50.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

23.6%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(24.1%)
Max Drawdown
1572
Num Trades
35.5%
Win Trades
1.4 : 1
Profit Factor
54.5%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2012                                                 +3.9%+7.6%+1.0%+1.6%(0.4%)+14.1%
2013+13.8%+0.7%+9.1%(1.6%)+0.1%(5.4%)(2.6%)(2.3%)+22.0%+8.2%+20.9%(0.5%)+75.9%
2014+10.3%(2.2%)(2.2%)(3%)+1.4%(1.2%)(8.4%)+4.2%(0.6%)+2.8%+3.2%+2.5%+5.6%
2015(1.2%)+7.0%+4.6%(5.4%)+20.3%+2.7%+17.4%(4.1%)+3.6%(1.8%)+2.6%+1.8%+54.4%
2016(0.2%)(4.8%)(5.3%)+3.8%(3.9%)+3.4%(0.5%)+0.7%+1.8%+0.5%+9.2%(2.4%)+1.3%
2017(2%)+8.6%+1.0%+5.3%+10.4%(7.2%)+6.9%+6.6%+2.7%+2.6%(3%)(1.3%)+33.1%
2018+9.0%(1.4%)+1.2%(2.6%)+15.5%(2.2%)(5.6%)+7.9%(4.9%)(7.4%)(0.4%)+0.5%+7.4%
2019  -  +4.1%(3.9%)+3.2%  -  +2.2%+1.4%(2.7%)(2.9%)(0.7%)(0.7%)      (0.4%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 24 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 2,561 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
11/19/19 9:30 LRCX LAM RESEARCH LONG 74 284.57 11/21 9:30 265.41 0.3%
Trade id #126266944
Max drawdown($1,420)
Time11/21/19 9:30
Quant open74
Worst price265.38
Drawdown as % of equity-0.30%
($1,419)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.48
10/3/19 9:30 NEAR ISHARES SHORT MATURITY BOND ET LONG 4,994 50.26 11/18 9:30 50.31 0.01%
Trade id #125610432
Max drawdown($49)
Time11/1/19 0:00
Quant open4,994
Worst price50.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
$245
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/25/19 9:30 SBUX STARBUCKS SHORT 273 89.90 11/14 9:30 84.10 0.07%
Trade id #125499884
Max drawdown($341)
Time9/26/19 0:00
Quant open273
Worst price91.15
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
$1,578
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.46
11/4/19 9:30 FNV FRANCO-NEVADA LONG 475 96.07 11/11 9:30 95.47 0.15%
Trade id #126059376
Max drawdown($707)
Time11/5/19 0:00
Quant open475
Worst price94.58
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
($295)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.50
10/9/19 10:00 PALL ABERDEEN STD PHYS PALLADIUM SHARES ETF LONG 176 158.90 11/11 9:30 161.00 0.01%
Trade id #125697662
Max drawdown($37)
Time10/9/19 14:59
Quant open176
Worst price158.69
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
$366
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.52
10/31/19 9:30 JDST DIREXION DAILY JR GOLD BEAR SHORT 1,104 14.11 11/11 9:30 16.70 0.65%
Trade id #126018910
Max drawdown($3,058)
Time11/8/19 0:00
Quant open1,104
Worst price16.88
Drawdown as % of equity-0.65%
($2,864)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
10/21/19 9:30 GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES LONG 347 140.72 11/8 9:37 137.52 0.23%
Trade id #125874350
Max drawdown($1,099)
Time11/8/19 9:35
Quant open347
Worst price137.55
Drawdown as % of equity-0.23%
($1,117)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.94
10/31/19 9:30 NG NOVAGOLD RESOURCES LONG 1,821 7.29 11/7 10:59 6.58 0.27%
Trade id #126018871
Max drawdown($1,274)
Time11/7/19 10:58
Quant open1,821
Worst price6.59
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
($1,291)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
10/14/19 9:30 HXL HEXCEL SHORT 285 77.14 11/6 9:30 76.61 0.03%
Trade id #125763818
Max drawdown($156)
Time10/14/19 10:16
Quant open285
Worst price77.69
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
$145
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.70
10/21/19 9:30 FLWS 1-800 FLOWERS.COM SHORT 1,156 14.05 10/31 9:37 15.11 0.17%
Trade id #125874367
Max drawdown($797)
Time10/31/19 9:32
Quant open1,156
Worst price14.74
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
($1,234)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
10/21/19 9:30 EMB ISHARES JPMORGAN USD EMERG MAR LONG 512 113.19 10/30 9:30 112.85 0.05%
Trade id #125874368
Max drawdown($261)
Time10/30/19 9:30
Quant open512
Worst price112.68
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
($179)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/23/19 9:30 VKTX VIKING THERAPEUTICS INC. COMMON STOCK SHORT 1,390 6.85 10/29 9:30 6.85 0.12%
Trade id #125458318
Max drawdown($576)
Time9/27/19 0:00
Quant open1,390
Worst price7.26
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
($5)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
10/21/19 9:30 NUPMF NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. ORDINARY SHARES LONG 2,287 3.74 10/29 8:00 3.15 0.28%
Trade id #125874376
Max drawdown($1,349)
Time10/28/19 0:00
Quant open2,287
Worst price3.15
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
($1,354)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/25/19 9:30 CXO CONCHO RESOURCES SHORT 167 70.50 10/28 9:30 66.42 0.03%
Trade id #125499824
Max drawdown($143)
Time9/25/19 9:40
Quant open167
Worst price71.36
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
$678
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.34
10/21/19 9:32 AM ANTERO MIDSTREAM CORP SHORT 1,453 7.36 10/24 9:30 7.59 0.09%
Trade id #125874524
Max drawdown($414)
Time10/23/19 0:00
Quant open1,453
Worst price7.64
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
($339)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
10/14/19 9:30 IPHI INPHI LONG 228 63.77 10/21 9:30 61.60 0.16%
Trade id #125763796
Max drawdown($784)
Time10/18/19 0:00
Quant open228
Worst price60.33
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
($500)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.56
9/30/19 9:30 BLL BALL CORP SHORT 292 73.00 10/18 9:30 74.04 0.12%
Trade id #125553880
Max drawdown($557)
Time10/17/19 0:00
Quant open292
Worst price74.91
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
($310)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.84
10/8/19 9:30 ECL ECOLAB SHORT 142 190.87 10/17 9:30 196.11 0.19%
Trade id #125674050
Max drawdown($932)
Time10/11/19 0:00
Quant open142
Worst price197.44
Drawdown as % of equity-0.19%
($747)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.84
10/14/19 9:30 MED MEDIFAST SHORT 128 96.96 10/17 9:30 102.66 0.15%
Trade id #125763778
Max drawdown($709)
Time10/16/19 0:00
Quant open128
Worst price102.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
($733)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.56
9/25/19 9:30 PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS CORP SHORT 195 103.34 10/16 9:30 103.00 0.07%
Trade id #125499865
Max drawdown($356)
Time9/27/19 0:00
Quant open195
Worst price105.17
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
$62
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.90
9/23/19 9:30 BIP BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTURE LONG 856 47.90 10/15 9:30 48.04 0.06%
Trade id #125458316
Max drawdown($288)
Time9/23/19 11:22
Quant open856
Worst price47.56
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
$115
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
10/7/19 9:30 RGLD ROYAL GOLD LONG 134 128.14 10/14 9:30 124.05 0.14%
Trade id #125657926
Max drawdown($667)
Time10/11/19 0:00
Quant open134
Worst price123.16
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
($551)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.68
10/9/19 9:30 TCBI TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES SHORT 283 51.05 10/11 10:00 54.56 0.2%
Trade id #125695765
Max drawdown($962)
Time10/11/19 10:00
Quant open283
Worst price54.45
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
($999)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.66
9/9/19 9:30 QQQ POWERSHARES QQQ LONG 172 192.18 10/3 9:30 184.07 0.33%
Trade id #125272430
Max drawdown($1,575)
Time10/2/19 0:00
Quant open172
Worst price183.02
Drawdown as % of equity-0.33%
($1,398)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.44
9/3/19 9:30 WMT WALMART INC LONG 275 113.68 10/3 9:30 115.88 0.01%
Trade id #125193528
Max drawdown($49)
Time9/3/19 9:31
Quant open275
Worst price113.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
$600
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.50
8/13/19 9:30 LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN LONG 87 379.35 10/2 9:32 382.00 0.21%
Trade id #124904459
Max drawdown($1,060)
Time8/15/19 0:00
Quant open87
Worst price367.17
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
$229
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.74
9/17/19 9:30 SVM SILVERCORP METALS INC LONG 2,161 4.23 10/1 9:30 3.83 0.18%
Trade id #125382057
Max drawdown($886)
Time9/30/19 0:00
Quant open2,161
Worst price3.82
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
($863)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/18/19 9:30 GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES LONG 287 141.93 9/30 13:37 138.05 0.23%
Trade id #125398633
Max drawdown($1,096)
Time9/30/19 13:37
Quant open287
Worst price138.11
Drawdown as % of equity-0.23%
($1,120)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.74
9/9/19 9:30 PHB INVESCO FUNDAMENTAL HIGH Y LONG 4,898 19.13 9/30 9:30 19.00 0.13%
Trade id #125272445
Max drawdown($636)
Time9/27/19 0:00
Quant open4,898
Worst price19.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.13%
($642)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/23/19 9:30 KGC KINROSS GOLD LONG 2,237 5.23 9/30 9:30 4.63 0.21%
Trade id #125458293
Max drawdown($1,029)
Time9/27/19 0:00
Quant open2,237
Worst price4.77
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
($1,347)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    8/4/2012
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $35,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    2666.04
  • Age
    89 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    1572
  • # Profitable
    558
  • % Profitable
    35.50%
  • Avg trade duration
    30.4 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    24.06%
  • drawdown period
    Jan 21, 2014 - Aug 04, 2014
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    23.6%
  • Avg win
    $2,563
  • Avg loss
    $1,066
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $154,238
  • Margin Used
    $111,861
  • Buying Power
    $50,651
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.43:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.97
  • Sortino Ratio
    1.4
  • Calmar Ratio
    1.262
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    248.59%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.17300
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    123.49%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    23.6%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    0.25%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.20%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.236%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    24.8%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    42.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    19.50%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    8.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    2.50%
  • Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    100.00%
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    0.50%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    624
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    965
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    1
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    853
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    897
  • Management
  • No Subs Allowed Flag (1: no subs)
    0
  • Strat abandoned?
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $1,066
  • Avg Win
    $2,564
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $1,081,200.000
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader num accounts)
    3
  • Age
  • Num Months (Age strategy)
    88
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $1,430,660.000
  • # Winners
    558
  • Num Months Winners
    49
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    55325
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    176350
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    1014
  • % Winners
    35.5%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    43827.90
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    730.47
  • Avg Trade Length
    30.4 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    1
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.64
  • Daily leverage (max)
    3.69
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.05
  • Beta
    0.24
  • Treynor Index
    0.24
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    44.65
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    17.95
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.28
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    5.952
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.176
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.160
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.169
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.22592
  • SD
    0.23297
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.96973
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.96115
  • df
    85.00000
  • t
    2.59603
  • p
    0.00555
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.22054
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.71347
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.21490
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.70740
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.18418
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.98675
  • Upside part of mean
    0.41236
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.18644
  • Upside SD
    0.21725
  • Downside SD
    0.10343
  • N nonnegative terms
    49.00000
  • N negative terms
    37.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    86.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08845
  • Mean of criterion
    0.22592
  • SD of predictor
    0.12100
  • SD of criterion
    0.23297
  • Covariance
    0.00331
  • r
    0.11729
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.22581
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.20594
  • Mean Square Error
    0.05416
  • DF error
    84.00000
  • t(b)
    1.08242
  • p(b)
    0.14108
  • t(a)
    2.31729
  • p(a)
    0.01146
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.18905
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.64067
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.02921
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.38267
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.00045
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.20594
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.19864
  • SD
    0.22123
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.89787
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.88993
  • df
    85.00000
  • t
    2.40366
  • p
    0.00920
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.15090
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.63976
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.14567
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.63418
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.85147
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.63749
  • Upside part of mean
    0.39026
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.19162
  • Upside SD
    0.20038
  • Downside SD
    0.10729
  • N nonnegative terms
    49.00000
  • N negative terms
    37.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    86.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08072
  • Mean of criterion
    0.19864
  • SD of predictor
    0.12119
  • SD of criterion
    0.22123
  • Covariance
    0.00330
  • r
    0.12317
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.22483
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.18049
  • Mean Square Error
    0.04878
  • DF error
    84.00000
  • t(b)
    1.13750
  • p(b)
    0.12928
  • t(a)
    2.14803
  • p(a)
    0.01730
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.16823
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.61789
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.01340
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.34759
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.88350
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.18049
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.08469
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.10855
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03278
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.06334
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    86.00000
  • Minimum
    0.89129
  • Quartile 1
    0.97806
  • Median
    1.01804
  • Quartile 3
    1.04872
  • Maximum
    1.27878
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.95087
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99485
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.03379
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.10448
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.07066
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.04651
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.22021
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.17107
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.05029
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.07487
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.02630
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.05302
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.07128
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    13.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00377
  • Quartile 1
    0.02099
  • Median
    0.04039
  • Quartile 3
    0.11403
  • Maximum
    0.16901
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01292
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03641
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.08995
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.14898
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.09304
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -3.03640
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.15347
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.15376
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.63735
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.16554
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.17538
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.56809
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.25426
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.50443
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    1.70671
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    2.34240
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.21037
  • SD
    0.17262
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.21869
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.21821
  • df
    1895.00000
  • t
    3.27840
  • p
    0.45224
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.48894
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.94817
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.48859
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.94782
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.77907
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.01527
  • Upside part of mean
    1.06601
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.85564
  • Upside SD
    0.12636
  • Downside SD
    0.11825
  • N nonnegative terms
    1050.00000
  • N negative terms
    846.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1896.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.09131
  • Mean of criterion
    0.21037
  • SD of predictor
    0.12889
  • SD of criterion
    0.17262
  • Covariance
    0.00375
  • r
    0.16867
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.22589
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.19000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02896
  • DF error
    1894.00000
  • t(b)
    7.44742
  • p(b)
    0.41566
  • t(a)
    2.99626
  • p(a)
    0.46566
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.16640
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.28538
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.06554
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.31393
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.93127
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.18974
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.19537
  • SD
    0.17273
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.13106
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.13062
  • df
    1895.00000
  • t
    3.04267
  • p
    0.45565
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.40146
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.86040
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.40114
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.86009
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.63109
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.83337
  • Upside part of mean
    1.05803
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.86267
  • Upside SD
    0.12497
  • Downside SD
    0.11978
  • N nonnegative terms
    1050.00000
  • N negative terms
    846.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1896.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08297
  • Mean of criterion
    0.19537
  • SD of predictor
    0.12907
  • SD of criterion
    0.17273
  • Covariance
    0.00377
  • r
    0.16922
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.22646
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.17658
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02900
  • DF error
    1894.00000
  • t(b)
    7.47233
  • p(b)
    0.41539
  • t(a)
    2.78735
  • p(a)
    0.46804
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.16702
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.28589
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05233
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.30082
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.86271
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.17658
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01667
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02103
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00692
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01435
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    1896.00000
  • Minimum
    0.93891
  • Quartile 1
    0.99640
  • Median
    1.00087
  • Quartile 3
    1.00577
  • Maximum
    1.05556
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98835
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99889
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00299
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01341
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00937
  • Number outliers low
    87.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.04589
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97420
  • Number of outliers high
    80.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.04219
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02692
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.28604
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01070
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01842
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.12810
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01081
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01650
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    65.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00007
  • Quartile 1
    0.00341
  • Median
    0.01360
  • Quartile 3
    0.03963
  • Maximum
    0.19820
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00176
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00842
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02456
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.10986
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03622
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10769
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.15595
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.15662
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.09767
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.10352
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.56478
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.08824
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.09976
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.55712
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.25016
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.26217
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    2.27715
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    11.89340
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.01908
  • SD
    0.07275
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.26220
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.26069
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.18540
  • p
    0.50813
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.03371
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.51027
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.03267
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.51130
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.38434
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.29506
  • Upside part of mean
    0.41171
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.43079
  • Upside SD
    0.05283
  • Downside SD
    0.04963
  • N nonnegative terms
    62.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15141
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.01908
  • SD of predictor
    0.13302
  • SD of criterion
    0.07275
  • Covariance
    -0.00059
  • r
    -0.06068
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.03319
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.01405
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00531
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.69052
  • p(b)
    0.53861
  • t(a)
    -0.13595
  • p(a)
    0.50762
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.12829
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.06191
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.21854
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.19044
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.57474
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.01405
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.02170
  • SD
    0.07269
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.29851
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.29679
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.21108
  • p
    0.50926
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.07007
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.47402
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.06883
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.47526
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.43554
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.23544
  • Upside part of mean
    0.41029
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.43198
  • Upside SD
    0.05256
  • Downside SD
    0.04982
  • N nonnegative terms
    62.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14254
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.02170
  • SD of predictor
    0.13340
  • SD of criterion
    0.07269
  • Covariance
    -0.00058
  • r
    -0.05997
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.03268
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.01704
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00531
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.68236
  • p(b)
    0.53816
  • t(a)
    -0.16506
  • p(a)
    0.50925
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01700
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.12743
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.06207
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.22129
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.18721
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.66401
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.01704
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00744
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00930
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00394
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00726
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98687
  • Quartile 1
    0.99794
  • Median
    0.99983
  • Quartile 3
    1.00229
  • Maximum
    1.01673
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99474
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99895
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00103
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00544
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00435
  • Number outliers low
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98976
  • Number of outliers high
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.04580
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01152
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.09687
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00491
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00638
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.22458
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00497
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00616
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    7.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00307
  • Quartile 1
    0.00507
  • Median
    0.01146
  • Quartile 3
    0.01350
  • Maximum
    0.09757
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00361
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00873
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01313
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.05572
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00843
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14286
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.09757
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    1.00%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -264949000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    195
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.00622
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.00623
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.06384
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.11177
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.66963

Strategy Description

Combines the art of trading the most explosive breakouts the market has to offer with the science of turtle trader position sizing and risk management.


What to expect:

Every day, I run stock scans that comb through 10,000 stocks to find just one or two that are ready to move right now.

I also use a sophisticated risk management strategy that was developed by William Eckhardt, who taught a group of traders now known as The Turtles.

The system buys strong, liquid US stocks and ETFs, and short sells the weakest. Losses are cut very short, which contributes to a lower win rate.

For more information on my trading style, please visit Twitter.com/ChartingTrends


Frequently asked questions:

Does this system need to be auto-traded?

No. All signals will be sent out after the market has closed, mostly on the weekends, so you should have time to enter the trades manually in the evening or in the morning before the market opens.


Do you short stocks?

Yes.


Do you use leverage?

Rarely, but yes during strongly trending markets.


Do you use stops?

Yes. All signals come with a stop loss order attached.


How has the system performed during backtesting?

My system is not an algorithm or black box. It is a rules based, discretionary strategy that I have developed through 10 years of intensive study.


What will happen during bear markets?

I can short stocks and ETFs, so the system is not dependant on a rising stock market. The system is more likely to struggle during a choppy, range bound market.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2012-08-04
Suggested Minimum Capital
$35,000
Rank at C2 
#92
# Trades
1572
# Profitable
558
% Profitable
35.5%
Net Dividends
Correlation S&P500
0.173
Sharpe Ratio
0.97
Sortino Ratio
1.40
Beta
0.24
Alpha
0.05
Leverage
1.64 Average
3.69 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Okay, gotcha.

Not available

This feature isn't available under your current Trade Leader Plan.

Want to see available plans and features?

Please hold...

Strategy is now visible

This strategy is now visible to the public. New subscribers will be able to follow it.

If you designate your strategy as Private, it will no longer be visible to the public.

No subscribers and simulations will be allowed. If you have subscribers, the strategy will still be visible to them.
If you have simulations, they will be stopped.

Continue to designate your strategy as Private?

Strategy is no longer visible

This strategy is no longer visible to anyone except current subscribers.

(Current subscribers will remain subscribed. You can see who is subscribed, and control their subscriptions, on your Subscriber Management screen.)

Finally, please note that you can restore public visibility at any time.

This strategy is no longer visible to the public. No subscribers will be allowed.

You can restore public visibility at any time.

Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.