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Forex Closed

Forex · Started Oct 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
262
Win Trades
53.4%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
33.1%

About this strategy

N / A

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201465.1-17.125.271.4
201548.0-51.249.1-133.7-113.4-71.8-2.5-58.6-73.3-347.2-115.4274.9-61.3
2016301.1104.2-15.59.4-5.7140.61.5-7.319.28.2-28.81.91414.6
2017-4.613.2-1.2-16.4-1.4-16.3-5.65.0-28.64.22.2-21.6-56.5
2018-27.740.40.9-0.250.3-5.12.98.2-16.723.2-1.916.289.9
2019-11.1-14.712.55.7-3.826.53.724.4-5.6-24.06.4-13.6-6.8
2020-0.25.322.58.2-4.1-7.5-20.2-10.029.3-4.3-18.0-14.2-22.8
2021-14.9-28.5-3.7-15.5-51.473.217.417.022.9-42.482.8-22.9-42.8
20220.5-9.5-17.86.222.8-22.727.544.611.0-38.6-11.826.75.7
2023-20.73.9-30.6-94.025.5-1339.2-0.2-8.3-56.2-25.2-323.4-33.4-152.8
2024-40.0-4.7-15.9-0.2-50.7-4.8-0.1-1.0-9.4-0.2-42.4-16.4
2025-19.8-5.3-72.7-21.0-5.7-26.8-2.9-2.8-4.80.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/7/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age146 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades262
# Profitable140
% Profitable53.4%
Avg trade duration44.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodSept 05, 2015 - Aug 18, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$885
Avg loss$1,267

Ratios

W:L ratio0.80
Sharpe Ratio-0.34
Sortino Ratio-0.35
Calmar Ratio-0.97

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life295.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-1122.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated98.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,267
Avg Win$885
# Winners140
Sum Trade PL (losers)$154,601
Sum Trade PL (winners)$123,892
Num Months Winners4
# Losers122
% Winners53.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table7

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)63484.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)1058.07
Avg Trade Length44.10
Last Trade Ago409

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-1
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.63
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.70
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats46.24
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats81.55
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.36
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.66
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.22

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean25067.02
SD39634.73
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df29
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio22767.66
Upside Potential Ratio22769.38
Upside part of mean25068.92
Downside part of mean-1.90
Upside SD39634.72
Downside SD1.10
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms16
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion25067.02
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion39634.73
Covariance-1718.25
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-23641.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)37405.20
Mean Square Error1584942976
DF error28
t(b)-0.86
p(b)0.80
t(a)1.29
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-79813.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta32530.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-21920.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha96730.88
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.06
Jensen alpha (a)37405.20
Mean-3.71
SD11.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.31
df29
t-0.50
p0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio-0.41
Upside Potential Ratio0.64
Upside part of mean5.84
Downside part of mean-9.55
Upside SD7.02
Downside SD9.15
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms16
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion-3.71
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion11.68
Covariance-0.48
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-7.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error137.51
DF error28
t(b)-0.87
p(b)0.80
t(a)-0.02
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-24.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta10.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-17.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha17.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.50
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
VaR(95%)1.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR1.00
VaR(95%)0.38
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.73
Mean15342.66
SD13782.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.11
df668
t1.78
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio6908.82
Upside Potential Ratio6914.19
Upside part of mean15354.57
Downside part of mean-11.92
Upside SD13804.64
Downside SD2.22
N nonnegative terms275
N negative terms394
N of observations669
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion15342.66
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion13782.37
Covariance117.13
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)1071.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)14732.68
Mean Square Error190112768
DF error667
t(b)0.66
p(b)0.25
t(a)1.70
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2096.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4239.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2305.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha31771.03
Treynor index (mean / b)14.32
Jensen alpha (a)14732.69
Mean-3.63
SD18.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df668
t-0.32
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.03
Sortino ratio-0.27
Upside Potential Ratio2.11
Upside part of mean28.04
Downside part of mean-31.67
Upside SD12.44
Downside SD13.29
N nonnegative terms275
N negative terms394
N of observations669
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion-3.63
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion18.21
Covariance-0.33
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.96
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.11
Mean Square Error331.22
DF error667
t(b)-1.40
p(b)0.92
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-7.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-24.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha20.35
Treynor index (mean / b)1.23
Jensen alpha (a)-2.11
VaR(95%)0.85
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.90
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.25
Mean57888.27
SD28809.89
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.00
df130
t1.42
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.78
Sortino ratio16180.34
Upside Potential Ratio16187.02
Upside part of mean57912.18
Downside part of mean-23.91
Upside SD28921.69
Downside SD3.58
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms85
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion57888.27
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion28809.89
Covariance627.02
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)3785.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)53525.33
Mean Square Error834052224
DF error129
t(b)0.61
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.29
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8528.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta16099.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-28519.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha135569.88
Treynor index (mean / b)15.29
Jensen alpha (a)53525.33
Mean-22.33
SD34.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.65
df130
t-0.46
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio-0.86
Upside Potential Ratio2.69
Upside part of mean70.10
Downside part of mean-92.43
Upside SD22.24
Downside SD26.01
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms85
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-22.33
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion34.33
Covariance-0.57
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-18.70
Mean Square Error1185.45
DF error129
t(b)-0.46
p(b)0.53
t(a)-0.38
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-18.04
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta11.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-116.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha78.90
Treynor index (mean / b)6.56
Jensen alpha (a)-18.70
VaR(95%)0.97
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.24
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.50

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.80
Median1
Quartile 31.29
Maximum62669
Mean of quarter 10.48
Mean of quarter 20.92
Mean of quarter 31.14
Mean of quarter 47834.92
Inter Quartile Range0.49
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.00
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high62669
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.48
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.66
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.75
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.67
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.67
Number of observations669
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.96
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum19134.33
Mean of quarter 10.83
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 4235.76
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low42
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.57
Number of outliers high51
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high769.56
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.49
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.90
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum19134.33
Mean of quarter 10.67
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 4878.45
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.31
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high2896.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.33
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.27

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.13
Quartile 10.57
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.13
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.43
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.14
Quartile 30.26
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.21
Mean of quarter 40.61
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.60
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.78
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-6.97
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.83
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.83
Number of observations5
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.11
Median0.17
Quartile 30.20
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20.17
Mean of quarter 30.20
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-534055136
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)3635
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.97
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.97
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.98
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.97
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.09
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.01

Trading record

Placed 846 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/JPY short100Apr 1, 2015Aug 21, 2025($135)
EUR/JPY short200Apr 1, 2015Aug 21, 2025($548)
GBP/USD short200Apr 1, 2015Aug 21, 2025$27,746
GBP/JPY short200Mar 31, 2015Mar 31, 2015($1)
GBP/USD short200Mar 31, 2015Mar 31, 2015$242
GBP/USD long300Mar 31, 2015Mar 31, 2015$96
GBP/JPY long200Mar 31, 2015Mar 31, 2015$3
GBP/USD short400Mar 31, 2015Mar 31, 2015($3,436)
EUR/JPY short550Mar 31, 2015Mar 31, 2015$17
GBP/JPY short450Mar 30, 2015Mar 30, 2015$3
GBP/JPY short850Mar 26, 2015Mar 30, 2015($48)
GBP/USD short50Mar 27, 2015Mar 30, 2015$99
EUR/JPY short200Mar 27, 2015Mar 27, 2015$6
EUR/JPY short300Mar 26, 2015Mar 26, 2015$6
GBP/USD long380Mar 26, 2015Mar 26, 2015($4,964)
EUR/JPY long260Mar 26, 2015Mar 26, 2015($5)
GBP/JPY long260Mar 26, 2015Mar 26, 2015($6)
GBP/JPY short100Mar 25, 2015Mar 26, 2015$4
EUR/JPY short60Mar 25, 2015Mar 26, 2015$1
GBP/USD long300Mar 25, 2015Mar 25, 2015$1,342
GBP/JPY long200Mar 25, 2015Mar 25, 2015$3
EUR/JPY long300Mar 25, 2015Mar 25, 2015$5
EUR/JPY long1030Mar 24, 2015Mar 24, 2015($49)
GBP/USD long80Mar 24, 2015Mar 24, 2015($514)
EUR/JPY short520Mar 23, 2015Mar 24, 2015($27)
GBP/USD short50Mar 23, 2015Mar 23, 2015($185)
GBP/JPY short50Mar 23, 2015Mar 23, 2015($0)
GBP/JPY long100Mar 20, 2015Mar 20, 2015$7
EUR/JPY long200Mar 20, 2015Mar 20, 2015$8
GBP/USD short70Mar 20, 2015Mar 20, 2015($153)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.