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discontinued 6

Forex · Started Mar 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.3%
Max Drawdown
49.7%
Trades
147
Win Trades
51.0%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
3.6%

About this strategy

With the Top Tier FX strategy, each trade is positioned with (unit) size correlated to it's volatility. Catastrophic stop losses to manage risk are sized to represent evenly distributed weight to each pair, so on average the positions are returning close to the same amount of gain, even when pairs have different volatility. Stop losses are always entered with opening trade and never changed or adjusted.
"Top Tier" differs from "Medial Risk" in that all open trades are thought of as one position, having the risk managed with a low stop loss on the entire account.
"Top Tier" is thought of as having less aggressive risk management then "Medial Risk". Both use the same parameters for trade entrance and size, but manage the risk slightly differently.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20158.5-0.5-31.911.24.81.333.90.00.00.016.3
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/6/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age142 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades147
# Profitable75
% Profitable51.0%
Avg trade duration5.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown49.7%
drawdown periodMay 13, 2015 - Sept 18, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)1.3%
Avg win$1,297
Avg loss$1,096

Ratios

W:L ratio1.23
Sharpe Ratio0.02
Sortino Ratio0.04
Calmar Ratio0.11

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life270.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-254.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity6.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.9%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.1%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss6.7%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,096
Avg Win$1,297
# Winners75
Sum Trade PL (losers)$78,942
Sum Trade PL (winners)$97,251
Num Months Winners6
# Losers72
% Winners51.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table140

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8321.85
Avg Position Time (hrs)138.70
Avg Trade Length5.80
Last Trade Ago4049

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.02
Treynor Index-0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.80
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.88
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats91.03
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats95.01
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.91
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.61
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.09
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df39
t0.55
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio0.58
Upside Potential Ratio1.33
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms3
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error38
t(b)0.10
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.45
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)4.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.05
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df39
t0.33
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio0.28
Upside Potential Ratio1.01
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms3
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error38
t(b)0.23
p(b)0.41
t(a)0.20
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)1.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.09
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df877
t0.55
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio0.61
Upside Potential Ratio3.22
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms817
N negative terms61
N of observations878
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error876
t(b)-0.47
p(b)0.68
t(a)0.59
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.05
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df877
t0.33
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio2.87
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms817
N negative terms61
N of observations878
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error876
t(b)-0.44
p(b)0.67
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.44
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations40
Minimum0.73
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.43
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.74
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.24
Number of observations878
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low61
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high67
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.31
Quartile 10.31
Median0.31
Quartile 30.31
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.46
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1289936000
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)128
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.34
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.46
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/ZAR long560Sep 11, 2015Sep 25, 2015$11,335
USD/HUF long560Sep 11, 2015Sep 25, 2015$7,738
EUR/JPY short560Sep 11, 2015Sep 25, 2015$56
AUD/USD short560Sep 11, 2015Sep 25, 2015$3,102
AUD/CAD short560Sep 11, 2015Sep 25, 2015$1,086
CAD/CHF short1100Aug 28, 2015Sep 4, 2015($5,499)
GBP/CHF long100Aug 21, 2015Aug 26, 2015($1,892)
AUD/NZD long100Aug 21, 2015Aug 26, 2015$543
EUR/SEK long100Aug 17, 2015Aug 21, 2015$667
GBP/NZD long100Aug 7, 2015Aug 17, 2015$2,875
GBP/AUD long100Aug 7, 2015Aug 17, 2015$2,520
AUD/USD short100Aug 7, 2015Aug 17, 2015$462
USD/CAD long100Aug 6, 2015Aug 7, 2015$168
NZD/USD short100Aug 6, 2015Aug 7, 2015($743)
NZD/JPY short100Aug 6, 2015Aug 7, 2015($4)
GBP/NZD long100Aug 6, 2015Aug 7, 2015($1,688)
GBP/JPY long100Aug 6, 2015Aug 7, 2015($7)
GBP/CAD long100Aug 6, 2015Aug 7, 2015$57
EUR/GBP short100Aug 6, 2015Aug 7, 2015($557)
CAD/CHF short100Aug 6, 2015Aug 7, 2015($127)
AUD/NZD long100Aug 6, 2015Aug 7, 2015($164)
USD/MXN long100Jul 31, 2015Aug 6, 2015$1,046
TRY/JPY long100Jul 31, 2015Aug 6, 2015$0
NZD/CHF short100Jul 31, 2015Aug 6, 2015($734)
GBP/USD short100Jul 31, 2015Aug 6, 2015$1,040
EUR/NZD long100Jul 31, 2015Aug 6, 2015$81
EUR/NOK long200Jul 31, 2015Aug 6, 2015$1,334
EUR/GBP long100Jul 31, 2015Aug 6, 2015$51
EUR/AUD long100Jul 31, 2015Aug 6, 2015($1,188)
CHF/JPY long100Jul 31, 2015Aug 6, 2015($7)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.