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Accel Sales EPS PTP

Stocks · Started Jul 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-11.0%
Max Drawdown
17.4%
Trades
80
Win Trades
48.8%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
5.9%

About this strategy

This Greenfield portfolio selects stocks that have accelerating EPS *and* revenues on a trailing 4-quarter basis. Individual quarters are allowed to be lower than previous quarters as long as the trailing 12-months shows continued growth. Existing, demonstrated performance is projected into the future in terms of historical sales and EPS growth, and and historical PEs are used to determine a high/low price range and a risk/reward potential. Stocks are selected based upon a minimum 2:1 upside potential, with higher ratios being favored.

Strategy has been refined as of January 2016.

Entry to the stocks is done based on short-term momentum price and volume signals which result in the stock being rated in some form of "long" status (as published daily in the GGT stock file).

The sale of an individual position is triggered if a newly reporting quarter results in a decrease in sales, revenues, or pre-tax products on a rolling 12-month (4-quarter) basis, and if the stock is rated in some form of "cash" status (as published daily in the GGT stock file).

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20151.5-6.3-1.1-3.04.5-3.0-7.4
2016-3.40.22.70.3-4.2-0.80.30.10.00.00.00.0-5.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20223.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.03.9
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/4/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age137 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades80
# Profitable39
% Profitable48.8%
Avg trade duration37.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown17.4%
drawdown periodJuly 15, 2015 - June 27, 2016
Cumul. Return-11.0%
Avg win$180
Avg loss$214

Ratios

W:L ratio0.84
Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Sortino Ratio-0.52
Calmar Ratio-0.15

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.13
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life268.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-12.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-11.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity14.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss82.5%
Chance of 20% account loss14.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$214
Avg Win$180
# Winners39
Sum Trade PL (losers)$8,756
Sum Trade PL (winners)$7,013
Num Months Winners8
# Losers41
% Winners48.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct369

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table136

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)54096.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)901.61
Avg Trade Length37.60
Last Trade Ago3752

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.04
Treynor Index-0.17

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.84
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-2.15
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats83.76
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats38.03
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.39
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.11
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.77
df11
t-0.83
p0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.22
Sortino ratio-1.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.26
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms8
N of observations12
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error10
t(b)0.56
p(b)0.29
t(a)-0.78
p(a)0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.73
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
Mean-0.11
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.83
df11
t-0.89
p0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Sortino ratio-1.12
Upside Potential Ratio1.20
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms8
N of observations12
Mean of predictor-0.03
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.11
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error10
t(b)0.62
p(b)0.28
t(a)-0.83
p(a)0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.71
Jensen alpha (a)-0.11
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean-0.08
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.46
df348
t-0.46
p0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio-0.58
Upside Potential Ratio5.03
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms146
N negative terms203
N of observations349
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error347
t(b)9.69
p(b)0
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean-0.09
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.54
df348
t-0.55
p0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio-0.68
Upside Potential Ratio4.85
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms146
N negative terms203
N of observations349
Mean of predictor0.00
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error347
t(b)9.74
p(b)0
t(a)-0.62
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.10
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.08
df171
t-0.77
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.69
Sortino ratio-1.31
Upside Potential Ratio5.07
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms104
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.51
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error170
t(b)7.65
p(b)0.25
t(a)-1.18
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.34
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean-0.11
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.12
df171
t-0.80
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio-1.35
Upside Potential Ratio5.00
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms104
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error170
t(b)7.63
p(b)0.25
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.35
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.96
Median0.99
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-20.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations349
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low35
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.12
Median0.12
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.07
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.07
Median0.07
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)348
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.20
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.57
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.57
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.17
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.57

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
STS long70Jun 8, 2016Jun 30, 2016($106)
STOR long37Jun 16, 2016Jun 30, 2016$64
REXR long149Jun 3, 2016Jun 30, 2016$60
RAI long20Jun 6, 2016Jun 30, 2016$32
NHI long15Jun 24, 2016Jun 30, 2016$24
MPW long67Jun 24, 2016Jun 30, 2016$4
MKTX long22Jun 3, 2016Jun 30, 2016$20
GV long297Jun 23, 2016Jun 30, 2016($74)
DOC long100Jun 17, 2016Jun 30, 2016$44
COR long26Jun 8, 2016Jun 30, 2016$85
BGS long24Jun 3, 2016Jun 30, 2016$63
ARE long12Mar 18, 2016Jun 30, 2016$140
AXGN long159Jun 22, 2016Jun 30, 2016$45
AAU long827Jun 17, 2016Jun 30, 2016$202
WAGE long36Jun 22, 2016Jun 27, 2016($84)
LTXB long37Jun 20, 2016Jun 27, 2016($104)
AVGO long20Jun 3, 2016Jun 27, 2016($364)
BANC long63Mar 18, 2016May 3, 2016$229
HDB long18Mar 18, 2016May 3, 2016$71
ADC long27Apr 14, 2016Apr 29, 2016($2)
HAIN long25Mar 18, 2016Apr 29, 2016$14
PNFP long21Mar 18, 2016Apr 29, 2016($10)
ESS long5Mar 18, 2016Apr 29, 2016($36)
CUBE long32Mar 18, 2016Apr 27, 2016($81)
OZRK long24Mar 18, 2016Apr 12, 2016($58)
CALM long19Mar 18, 2016Apr 8, 2016($24)
PVTB long27Mar 18, 2016Apr 7, 2016($59)
LAD long12Mar 18, 2016Apr 7, 2016($117)
LTXB long51Mar 18, 2016Apr 6, 2016($101)
ASC long111Mar 18, 2016Mar 23, 2016($110)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.