VIX DayTrader 1
Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $189.00 per month.
Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec  YTD  

2015  +25.5%  +8.3%  +33.3%  
2016  +0.6%  (0.2%)  +18.8%  +10.3%  (0.2%)  +12.6%  +1.7%  +4.8%  (6.5%)  +7.2%  +16.2%  (7.3%)  +70.1% 
2017  (5.7%)  +1.9%  (2.8%)  (6.6%) 
Model Account Details
A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.
Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.
Started  $10,000  
Buy Power  $27,874  
Cash  $27,874  
Equity  $0  
Cumulative $  $17,874  
Total System Equity  $27,874  
Margined  $0  
Open P/L  $0 
Open positions are hidden from nonsubscribers.

Trading Record 

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Statistics
 Strategy began11/17/2015
 Starting Unit Size$25,000
 Strategy Age (days)496.87
 Age17 months ago
 What it tradesStocks
 # Trades364
 # Profitable216
 % Profitable59.30%
 Avg trade duration5.5 hours
 Max peaktovalley drawdown16.96%
 drawdown periodDec 07, 2016  Feb 23, 2017
 Annual Return (Compounded)73.1%
 Avg win$242.58
 Avg loss$233.24
 Model Account Values (Raw)
 Cash$27,874
 Margin Used$0
 Buying Power$27,874
 Ratios
 W:L ratio1.52:1
 Sharpe Ratio3.387
 Sortino Ratio6.369
 Calmar Ratio10.1
 CORRELATION STATISTICS
 Correlation to SP5000.05700
 Return Statistics
 Ann Return (w trading costs)73.1%
 Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)112.0%
 Risk of Ruin (MonteCarlo)
 Chance of 10% account loss7.50%
 Chance of 20% account lossn/a
 Chance of 30% account lossn/a
 Chance of 40% account lossn/a
 Chance of 50% account lossn/a
 Popularity
 Popularity (Today)982
 Popularity (Last 6 weeks)992
 C2 Score92.4
 TradesOwnSystem Certification
 Trades Own System?0
 TOS percentn/a
 Subscription Price
 Billing Period (days)30
 Trial Days0
 Win / Loss
 Avg Loss$233
 Avg Win$243
 # Winners216
 # Losers148
 % Winners59.3%
 Frequency
 Avg Position Time (mins)328.82
 Avg Position Time (hrs)5.48
 Avg Trade Length0.2 days
 Last Trade Ago1
 Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.84870
 SD0.34426
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.46531
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.33960
 df15.00000
 t2.84670
 p0.14634
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52366
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.34245
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44698
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.23221
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio12.59880
 Upside Potential Ratio14.31360
 Upside part of mean0.96422
 Downside part of mean0.11552
 Upside SD0.40816
 Downside SD0.06736
 N nonnegative terms12.00000
 N negative terms4.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations16.00000
 Mean of predictor0.10483
 Mean of criterion0.84870
 SD of predictor0.10835
 SD of criterion0.34426
 Covariance0.00012
 r0.00328
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01043
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.84980
 Mean Square Error0.12698
 DF error14.00000
 t(b)0.01228
 p(b)0.50164
 t(a)2.64585
 p(a)0.21132
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.83162
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.81076
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16093
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.53866
 Treynor index (mean / b)81.39240
 Jensen alpha (a)0.84980
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.77399
 SD0.30667
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.52386
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.39516
 df15.00000
 t2.91430
 p0.14174
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.57219
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.41015
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.49367
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.29665
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio11.26740
 Upside Potential Ratio12.98150
 Upside part of mean0.89173
 Downside part of mean0.11775
 Upside SD0.36520
 Downside SD0.06869
 N nonnegative terms12.00000
 N negative terms4.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations16.00000
 Mean of predictor0.09884
 Mean of criterion0.77399
 SD of predictor0.10816
 SD of criterion0.30667
 Covariance0.00087
 r0.02629
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07454
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.76662
 Mean Square Error0.10069
 DF error14.00000
 t(b)0.09840
 p(b)0.48685
 t(a)2.69154
 p(a)0.20802
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.55017
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.69926
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15573
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.37751
 Treynor index (mean / b)10.38300
 Jensen alpha (a)0.76662
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.07791
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11093
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.01363
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03021
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates
 Number of observations16.00000
 Minimum0.95494
 Quartile 10.99860
 Median1.08243
 Quartile 31.10667
 Maximum1.36120
 Mean of quarter 10.96232
 Mean of quarter 21.04479
 Mean of quarter 31.09790
 Mean of quarter 41.18120
 Inter Quartile Range0.10807
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high1.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.06250
 Mean of outliers high1.36120
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.56113
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04192
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04289
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.74994
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04452
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04716
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs
 Number of observations3.00000
 Minimum0.03100
 Quartile 10.03576
 Median0.04052
 Quartile 30.05908
 Maximum0.07765
 Mean of quarter 10.03100
 Mean of quarter 20.04052
 Mean of quarter 30.00000
 Mean of quarter 40.07765
 Inter Quartile Range0.02332
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high0.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.00000
 Mean of outliers high0.00000
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 COMBINED STATISTICS
 Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.38307
 Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.19007
 Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)15.32650
 Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs15.32650
 Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.72850
 0.00000
 0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.74911
 SD0.21570
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.47298
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.46762
 df486.00000
 t4.13226
 p0.00002
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.80958
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.13292
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.80599
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.12924
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio6.65174
 Upside Potential Ratio14.19970
 Upside part of mean1.59915
 Downside part of mean0.85004
 Upside SD0.18809
 Downside SD0.11262
 N nonnegative terms235.00000
 N negative terms252.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations487.00000
 Mean of predictor0.09158
 Mean of criterion0.74911
 SD of predictor0.12213
 SD of criterion0.21570
 Covariance0.00213
 r0.08093
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14293
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.73600
 Mean Square Error0.04632
 DF error485.00000
 t(b)1.78819
 p(b)0.03718
 t(a)4.06589
 p(a)0.00003
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01412
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29999
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38033
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.09171
 Treynor index (mean / b)5.24097
 Jensen alpha (a)0.73602
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.72536
 SD0.21384
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.39214
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.38690
 df486.00000
 t4.03607
 p0.00003
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.72948
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.05142
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72594
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.04787
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio6.36945
 Upside Potential Ratio13.89000
 Upside part of mean1.58181
 Downside part of mean0.85645
 Upside SD0.18491
 Downside SD0.11388
 N nonnegative terms235.00000
 N negative terms252.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations487.00000
 Mean of predictor0.08411
 Mean of criterion0.72536
 SD of predictor0.12225
 SD of criterion0.21384
 Covariance0.00209
 r0.07984
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13966
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.71362
 Mean Square Error0.04553
 DF error485.00000
 t(b)1.76396
 p(b)0.03918
 t(a)3.97659
 p(a)0.00004
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01591
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29522
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36101
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.06622
 Treynor index (mean / b)5.19395
 Jensen alpha (a)0.71362
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.01671
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02143
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.00573
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01204
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates
 Number of observations487.00000
 Minimum0.95512
 Quartile 10.99825
 Median1.00000
 Quartile 31.00547
 Maximum1.06990
 Mean of quarter 10.99037
 Mean of quarter 20.99982
 Mean of quarter 31.00218
 Mean of quarter 41.01645
 Inter Quartile Range0.00722
 Number outliers low28.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.05749
 Mean of outliers low0.97994
 Number of outliers high44.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.09035
 Mean of outliers high1.02813
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17561
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00605
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00800
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00421
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00892
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01339
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs
 Number of observations25.00000
 Minimum0.00032
 Quartile 10.00673
 Median0.01829
 Quartile 30.04367
 Maximum0.10753
 Mean of quarter 10.00344
 Mean of quarter 20.01033
 Mean of quarter 30.03381
 Mean of quarter 40.08159
 Inter Quartile Range0.03694
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high2.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.08000
 Mean of outliers high0.10402
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.89019
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08450
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09083
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.84996
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08813
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09455
 COMBINED STATISTICS
 Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.29406
 Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.08614
 Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.10040
 Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs13.31240
 Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal50.68090
 0.00000
 0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.27972
 SD0.12890
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.17000
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.16047
 df171.00000
 t1.53442
 p0.42598
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.61439
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.94827
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.62078
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.94172
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio3.51539
 Upside Potential Ratio11.68320
 Upside part of mean0.92962
 Downside part of mean0.64991
 Upside SD0.10206
 Downside SD0.07957
 N nonnegative terms83.00000
 N negative terms89.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations172.00000
 Mean of predictor0.16397
 Mean of criterion0.27972
 SD of predictor0.07527
 SD of criterion0.12890
 Covariance0.00078
 r0.08075
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13829
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30239
 Mean Square Error0.01660
 DF error170.00000
 t(b)1.05634
 p(b)0.54038
 t(a)1.64798
 p(a)0.43730
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39672
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12014
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05982
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.66461
 Treynor index (mean / b)2.02267
 Jensen alpha (a)0.30239
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.27137
 SD0.12859
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.11036
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.10109
 df171.00000
 t1.49225
 p0.42797
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.67341
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.88811
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.67964
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.88183
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio3.39122
 Upside Potential Ratio11.55260
 Upside part of mean0.92444
 Downside part of mean0.65308
 Upside SD0.10124
 Downside SD0.08002
 N nonnegative terms83.00000
 N negative terms89.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations172.00000
 Mean of predictor0.16112
 Mean of criterion0.27137
 SD of predictor0.07507
 SD of criterion0.12859
 Covariance0.00076
 r0.07872
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13483
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29309
 Mean Square Error0.01653
 DF error170.00000
 t(b)1.02955
 p(b)0.53936
 t(a)1.60125
 p(a)0.43905
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39335
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12369
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06823
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65442
 Treynor index (mean / b)2.01264
 Jensen alpha (a)0.29309
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.01056
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01342
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.00441
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00900
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates
 Number of observations172.00000
 Minimum0.98431
 Quartile 10.99896
 Median1.00000
 Quartile 31.00382
 Maximum1.03011
 Mean of quarter 10.99257
 Mean of quarter 20.99994
 Mean of quarter 31.00149
 Mean of quarter 41.00938
 Inter Quartile Range0.00487
 Number outliers low18.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.10465
 Mean of outliers low0.98833
 Number of outliers high12.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.06977
 Mean of outliers high1.01656
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44317
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00449
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00548
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.52277
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00739
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00899
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs
 Number of observations6.00000
 Minimum0.00558
 Quartile 10.00605
 Median0.01315
 Quartile 30.02260
 Maximum0.10051
 Mean of quarter 10.00574
 Mean of quarter 20.00654
 Mean of quarter 30.01975
 Mean of quarter 40.06203
 Inter Quartile Range0.01655
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high1.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.16667
 Mean of outliers high0.10051
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 COMBINED STATISTICS
 Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30206
 Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.32488
 Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.23235
 Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.23734
 Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal24.21220
Strategy Description
VIX DayTrader 1 is now closed to new subscribers. However, a "sister strategy" VIX DayTrader 2 has now been opened:https://collective2.com/details/107301515
Strategy description: Volatility/VIX has recently become a popular asset class amongst sophisticated investors  it has historically generated large returns, can be used to hedge risk, and may act as a diversification tool for typical portfolios. This strategy provides access to a professionally managed, academically evidenced and thoroughly backtested strategy, giving the user access to a professional volatility day trader. Despite the sophistication of the underlying system, it has been designed to be incredibly simple for the end user. It achieves this by being using exchangetraded products such as VXX and XIV (inverse VIX), so that the user does not need access to futures. Moreover, the use of long XIV positions allows the strategy to “short” volatility without actually having to borrow stock, as this can lead to problems for the endusers of the system.
Using these products, the strategy switches between “riskon” (VXX) and “riskoff” (XIV) according to a variety of metrics and indicators. The biggest advantage is the ability of this flexible strategy to buy volatility (long VXX) at times of market stress, downturns and crashes. In this way, the system can be profitable when many other successful “longonly” stock strategies will be suffering some serious losses.
The trading system is implemented as a discretionary/semiautomated strategy – the final judgement is made by a human, and includes a range of technical, fundamental, economic and news factors. Trading size might vary according to market conditions.
LOYALTY SCHEME: Continuous subscriptions of more than 6months are eligible to receive a $20 reduction below the standard subscription price. Simply send me a message after this period has elapsed, and I will apply the reduction to your account.
Subscriptions not available
No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.
Statistics
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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.
Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.
Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have underor overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results
The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.
 Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
 Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been rescaled downward to make current goforward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
 All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any pertrade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
 "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.
Trading is risky
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.