VIX DayTrader 1
Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $189.00 per month.
Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec  YTD  

2015  +25.5%  +8.3%  +33.3%  
2016  +0.6%  (0.2%)  +18.8%  +10.3%  (0.2%)  +12.6%  +1.7%  +4.8%  (6.5%)  +7.2%  +16.2%  (7.3%)  +70.1% 
2017  (5.7%)  +1.9%  (3.9%) 
Model Account Details
A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.
Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.
Started  $10,000  
Buy Power  $28,146  
Cash  $28,146  
Equity  $0  
Cumulative $  $18,146  
Total System Equity  $28,146  
Margined  $0  
Open P/L  $0 
Open positions are hidden from nonsubscribers.

Trading Record 

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Statistics
 Strategy began11/17/2015
 Starting Unit Size$25,000
 Strategy Age (days)466.16
 Age16 months ago
 What it tradesStocks
 # Trades346
 # Profitable204
 % Profitable59.00%
 Avg trade duration5.5 hours
 Max peaktovalley drawdown16.96%
 drawdown periodDec 07, 2016  Feb 23, 2017
 Annual Return (Compounded)83.2%
 Avg win$247.10
 Avg loss$227.18
 Model Account Values (Raw)
 Cash$28,146
 Margin Used$0
 Buying Power$28,146
 Ratios
 W:L ratio1.56:1
 Sharpe Ratio3.517
 Sortino Ratio6.666
 Calmar Ratio10.966
 CORRELATION STATISTICS
 Correlation to SP5000.05900
 Return Statistics
 Ann Return (w trading costs)83.2%
 Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)124.5%
 Risk of Ruin (MonteCarlo)
 Chance of 10% account loss5.00%
 Chance of 20% account lossn/a
 Chance of 30% account lossn/a
 Chance of 40% account lossn/a
 Chance of 50% account lossn/a
 Popularity
 Popularity (Today)979
 Popularity (Last 6 weeks)994
 C2 Score92.6
 TradesOwnSystem Certification
 Trades Own System?0
 TOS percentn/a
 Subscription Price
 Billing Period (days)30
 Trial Days0
 Win / Loss
 Avg Loss$227
 Avg Win$247
 # Winners204
 # Losers142
 % Winners59.0%
 Frequency
 Avg Position Time (mins)328.37
 Avg Position Time (hrs)5.47
 Avg Trade Length0.2 days
 Last Trade Ago1
 Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.88139
 SD0.35419
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.48845
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.35230
 df14.00000
 t2.78217
 p0.20166
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.47722
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.43037
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39467
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.30993
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio12.66850
 Upside Potential Ratio14.43960
 Upside part of mean1.00461
 Downside part of mean0.12322
 Upside SD0.42070
 Downside SD0.06957
 N nonnegative terms11.00000
 N negative terms4.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations15.00000
 Mean of predictor0.08634
 Mean of criterion0.88139
 SD of predictor0.10996
 SD of criterion0.35419
 Covariance0.00073
 r0.01880
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06057
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.87616
 Mean Square Error0.13506
 DF error13.00000
 t(b)0.06781
 p(b)0.48803
 t(a)2.59506
 p(a)0.15050
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.86914
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.99027
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14676
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.60556
 Treynor index (mean / b)14.55210
 Jensen alpha (a)0.87616
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.80206
 SD0.31565
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.54096
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.40194
 df14.00000
 t2.84088
 p0.19765
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52034
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.49145
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43606
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.36782
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio11.30530
 Upside Potential Ratio13.07570
 Upside part of mean0.92766
 Downside part of mean0.12560
 Upside SD0.37626
 Downside SD0.07095
 N nonnegative terms11.00000
 N negative terms4.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations15.00000
 Mean of predictor0.08036
 Mean of criterion0.80206
 SD of predictor0.10976
 SD of criterion0.31565
 Covariance0.00168
 r0.04835
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13907
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.79088
 Mean Square Error0.10705
 DF error13.00000
 t(b)0.17455
 p(b)0.46923
 t(a)2.64011
 p(a)0.14709
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.58213
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.86026
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14371
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.43806
 Treynor index (mean / b)5.76746
 Jensen alpha (a)0.79088
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.07969
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11357
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.01544
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03307
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates
 Number of observations15.00000
 Minimum0.95494
 Quartile 10.98873
 Median1.09060
 Quartile 31.10670
 Maximum1.36120
 Mean of quarter 10.96232
 Mean of quarter 21.05977
 Mean of quarter 31.10034
 Mean of quarter 41.18120
 Inter Quartile Range0.11796
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high1.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.06667
 Mean of outliers high1.36120
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.56113
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04207
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04295
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.74994
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04479
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04731
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs
 Number of observations3.00000
 Minimum0.03100
 Quartile 10.03576
 Median0.04052
 Quartile 30.05908
 Maximum0.07765
 Mean of quarter 10.03100
 Mean of quarter 20.04052
 Mean of quarter 30.00000
 Mean of quarter 40.07765
 Inter Quartile Range0.02332
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high0.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.00000
 Mean of outliers high0.00000
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 COMBINED STATISTICS
 Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.40752
 Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.25243
 Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)16.12960
 Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs16.12960
 Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.02780
 0.00000
 0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.79384
 SD0.22025
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.60421
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.59828
 df456.00000
 t4.15422
 p0.00002
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88581
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.31878
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88185
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.31471
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio6.96008
 Upside Potential Ratio14.46670
 Upside part of mean1.65001
 Downside part of mean0.85617
 Upside SD0.19295
 Downside SD0.11406
 N nonnegative terms221.00000
 N negative terms236.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations457.00000
 Mean of predictor0.10605
 Mean of criterion0.79384
 SD of predictor0.12453
 SD of criterion0.22025
 Covariance0.00226
 r0.08248
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14589
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.77800
 Mean Square Error0.04829
 DF error455.00000
 t(b)1.76543
 p(b)0.03908
 t(a)4.07839
 p(a)0.00003
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01651
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30829
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40331
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.15343
 Treynor index (mean / b)5.44135
 Jensen alpha (a)0.77837
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.76902
 SD0.21832
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.52247
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.51667
 df456.00000
 t4.06000
 p0.00003
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.80486
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.23636
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.80095
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.23239
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio6.66642
 Upside Potential Ratio14.14530
 Upside part of mean1.63177
 Downside part of mean0.86275
 Upside SD0.18966
 Downside SD0.11536
 N nonnegative terms221.00000
 N negative terms236.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations457.00000
 Mean of predictor0.09828
 Mean of criterion0.76902
 SD of predictor0.12466
 SD of criterion0.21832
 Covariance0.00221
 r0.08138
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14252
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.75501
 Mean Square Error0.04745
 DF error455.00000
 t(b)1.74163
 p(b)0.04112
 t(a)3.99131
 p(a)0.00004
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01829
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30334
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38327
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12676
 Treynor index (mean / b)5.39576
 Jensen alpha (a)0.75501
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.01698
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02179
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.00576
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01213
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates
 Number of observations457.00000
 Minimum0.95512
 Quartile 10.99821
 Median1.00000
 Quartile 31.00569
 Maximum1.06990
 Mean of quarter 10.99031
 Mean of quarter 20.99986
 Mean of quarter 31.00226
 Mean of quarter 41.01702
 Inter Quartile Range0.00748
 Number outliers low25.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.05470
 Mean of outliers low0.97916
 Number of outliers high41.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.08972
 Mean of outliers high1.02896
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17945
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00607
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00802
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00475
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00894
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01334
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs
 Number of observations25.00000
 Minimum0.00032
 Quartile 10.00673
 Median0.01829
 Quartile 30.04367
 Maximum0.10753
 Mean of quarter 10.00344
 Mean of quarter 20.01033
 Mean of quarter 30.03381
 Mean of quarter 40.08159
 Inter Quartile Range0.03694
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high2.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.08000
 Mean of outliers high0.10402
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.89019
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08450
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09083
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.84996
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08813
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09455
 COMBINED STATISTICS
 Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.36599
 Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.17923
 Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.96610
 Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs14.45340
 Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal54.10790
 0.00000
 0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.19918
 SD0.15139
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.31567
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.30989
 df171.00000
 t0.93032
 p0.45486
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46154
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.08908
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46539
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.08517
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio1.94658
 Upside Potential Ratio9.73144
 Upside part of mean0.99574
 Downside part of mean0.79656
 Upside SD0.11149
 Downside SD0.10232
 N nonnegative terms83.00000
 N negative terms89.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations172.00000
 Mean of predictor0.15866
 Mean of criterion0.19918
 SD of predictor0.08942
 SD of criterion0.15139
 Covariance0.00168
 r0.12393
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20981
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16589
 Mean Square Error0.02270
 DF error170.00000
 t(b)1.62838
 p(b)0.43804
 t(a)0.77501
 p(a)0.47033
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04453
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46416
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25665
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58842
 Treynor index (mean / b)0.94932
 Jensen alpha (a)0.16589
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.18773
 SD0.15135
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.24040
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.23496
 df171.00000
 t0.87710
 p0.45743
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53631
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.01354
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53994
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.00985
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio1.81825
 Upside Potential Ratio9.58438
 Upside part of mean0.98957
 Downside part of mean0.80184
 Upside SD0.11052
 Downside SD0.10325
 N nonnegative terms83.00000
 N negative terms89.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations172.00000
 Mean of predictor0.15465
 Mean of criterion0.18773
 SD of predictor0.08942
 SD of criterion0.15135
 Covariance0.00171
 r0.12625
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21367
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15469
 Mean Square Error0.02267
 DF error170.00000
 t(b)1.65932
 p(b)0.43688
 t(a)0.72325
 p(a)0.47231
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04052
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46787
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26751
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57688
 Treynor index (mean / b)0.87860
 Jensen alpha (a)0.15469
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.01279
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01615
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.00538
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01119
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates
 Number of observations172.00000
 Minimum0.96559
 Quartile 10.99940
 Median1.00000
 Quartile 31.00403
 Maximum1.03011
 Mean of quarter 10.99083
 Mean of quarter 20.99997
 Mean of quarter 31.00144
 Mean of quarter 41.01020
 Inter Quartile Range0.00463
 Number outliers low24.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.13953
 Mean of outliers low0.98699
 Number of outliers high14.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.08140
 Mean of outliers high1.01757
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.80352
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00393
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00404
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43654
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00969
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01230
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs
 Number of observations4.00000
 Minimum0.00589
 Quartile 10.01629
 Median0.05416
 Quartile 30.09156
 Maximum0.10051
 Mean of quarter 10.00589
 Mean of quarter 20.01975
 Mean of quarter 30.08857
 Mean of quarter 40.10051
 Inter Quartile Range0.07527
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high0.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.00000
 Mean of outliers high0.00000
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 COMBINED STATISTICS
 Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20778
 Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21857
 Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.17471
 Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.17471
 Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.53420
Strategy Description
VIX DayTrader 1 is now closed to new subscribers. However, a "sister strategy" VIX DayTrader 2 has now been opened:https://collective2.com/details/107301515
Strategy description: Volatility/VIX has recently become a popular asset class amongst sophisticated investors  it has historically generated large returns, can be used to hedge risk, and may act as a diversification tool for typical portfolios. This strategy provides access to a professionally managed, academically evidenced and thoroughly backtested strategy, giving the user access to a professional volatility day trader. Despite the sophistication of the underlying system, it has been designed to be incredibly simple for the end user. It achieves this by being using exchangetraded products such as VXX and XIV (inverse VIX), so that the user does not need access to futures. Moreover, the use of long XIV positions allows the strategy to “short” volatility without actually having to borrow stock, as this can lead to problems for the endusers of the system.
Using these products, the strategy switches between “riskon” (VXX) and “riskoff” (XIV) according to a variety of metrics and indicators. The biggest advantage is the ability of this flexible strategy to buy volatility (long VXX) at times of market stress, downturns and crashes. In this way, the system can be profitable when many other successful “longonly” stock strategies will be suffering some serious losses.
The trading system is implemented as a discretionary/semiautomated strategy – the final judgement is made by a human, and includes a range of technical, fundamental, economic and news factors. Trading size might vary according to market conditions.
LOYALTY SCHEME: Continuous subscriptions of more than 6months are eligible to receive a $20 reduction below the standard subscription price. Simply send me a message after this period has elapsed, and I will apply the reduction to your account.
Subscriptions not available
No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.
Statistics
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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.
Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.
Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have underor overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results
The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.
 Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
 Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been rescaled downward to make current goforward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
 All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any pertrade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
 "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.
Trading is risky
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.