VIX DayTrader 1
Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $189.00 per month.
Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec  YTD  

2015  +25.5%  +8.3%  +33.3%  
2016  +0.6%  (0.2%)  +18.8%  +10.3%  (0.2%)  +12.6%  +1.7%  +4.8%  (6.5%)  +7.2%  +16.2%  (7.3%)  +70.1% 
2017  (2.9%)  (2.9%) 
Model Account Details
A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.
Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.
Started  $10,000  
Buy Power  $24,939  
Cash  $24,866  
Equity  $72  
Cumulative $  $18,107  
Total System Equity  $28,107  
Margined  $0  
Open P/L  $149 
Open positions are hidden from nonsubscribers.

Trading Record 

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Statistics
 Strategy began11/17/2015
 Starting Unit Size$25,000
 Strategy Age (days)433.1
 Age14 months ago
 What it tradesStocks
 # Trades333
 # Profitable196
 % Profitable58.90%
 Avg trade duration5.5 hours
 Max peaktovalley drawdown14.75%
 drawdown periodMay 02, 2016  May 18, 2016
 Annual Return (Compounded)93.5%
 Avg win$247.71
 Avg loss$222.76
 Model Account Values (Raw)
 Cash$24,866
 Margin Used$0
 Buying Power$24,939
 Ratios
 W:L ratio1.59:1
 Sharpe Ratio3.66
 Sortino Ratio6.968
 Calmar Ratio12.125
 CORRELATION STATISTICS
 Correlation to SP5000.06400
 Return Statistics
 Ann Return (w trading costs)93.5%
 Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)138.5%
 Risk of Ruin (MonteCarlo)
 Chance of 10% account loss5.50%
 Chance of 20% account loss1.00%
 Chance of 30% account lossn/a
 Chance of 40% account lossn/a
 Chance of 50% account lossn/a
 Popularity
 Popularity (Today)967
 Popularity (Last 6 weeks)997
 C2 Score87.0
 TradesOwnSystem Certification
 Trades Own System?0
 TOS percentn/a
 Subscription Price
 Billing Period (days)30
 Trial Days0
 Win / Loss
 Avg Loss$223
 Avg Win$248
 # Winners196
 # Losers137
 % Winners58.9%
 Frequency
 Avg Position Time (mins)326.95
 Avg Position Time (hrs)5.45
 Avg Trade Length0.2 days
 Last Trade Ago0
 Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.97431
 SD0.35140
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.77268
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.60904
 df13.00000
 t2.99484
 p0.12292
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.63429
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.83218
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.53578
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.68230
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio15.14480
 Upside Potential Ratio16.73120
 Upside part of mean1.07637
 Downside part of mean0.10206
 Upside SD0.43546
 Downside SD0.06433
 N nonnegative terms11.00000
 N negative terms3.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations14.00000
 Mean of predictor0.07178
 Mean of criterion0.97431
 SD of predictor0.11285
 SD of criterion0.35140
 Covariance0.00261
 r0.06581
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20493
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.95960
 Mean Square Error0.13319
 DF error12.00000
 t(b)0.22848
 p(b)0.46709
 t(a)2.78986
 p(a)0.18638
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.74930
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.15916
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21018
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.70902
 Treynor index (mean / b)4.75442
 Jensen alpha (a)0.95960
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.88982
 SD0.31134
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.85806
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.68938
 df13.00000
 t3.08706
 p0.11736
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.70259
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.93344
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.60101
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.77776
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio13.55500
 Upside Potential Ratio15.14070
 Upside part of mean0.99392
 Downside part of mean0.10410
 Upside SD0.38946
 Downside SD0.06565
 N nonnegative terms11.00000
 N negative terms3.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations14.00000
 Mean of predictor0.06564
 Mean of criterion0.88982
 SD of predictor0.11261
 SD of criterion0.31134
 Covariance0.00354
 r0.10107
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27944
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.87148
 Mean Square Error0.10394
 DF error12.00000
 t(b)0.35192
 p(b)0.44946
 t(a)2.87624
 p(a)0.18060
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.45059
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.00947
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21132
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.53165
 Treynor index (mean / b)3.18434
 Jensen alpha (a)0.87148
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.07103
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10478
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.01035
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02487
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates
 Number of observations14.00000
 Minimum0.95494
 Quartile 11.02279
 Median1.09310
 Quartile 31.10672
 Maximum1.36120
 Mean of quarter 10.97297
 Mean of quarter 21.07687
 Mean of quarter 31.10034
 Mean of quarter 41.18120
 Inter Quartile Range0.08393
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high1.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.07143
 Mean of outliers high1.36120
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.87143
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06380
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06424
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs
 Number of observations3.00000
 Minimum0.03100
 Quartile 10.03576
 Median0.04052
 Quartile 30.04279
 Maximum0.04506
 Mean of quarter 10.03100
 Mean of quarter 20.04052
 Mean of quarter 30.00000
 Mean of quarter 40.04506
 Inter Quartile Range0.00703
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high0.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.00000
 Mean of outliers high0.00000
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 COMBINED STATISTICS
 Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.59163
 Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.45905
 Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)32.38160
 Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs32.38160
 Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.92470
 0.00000
 0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.85103
 SD0.22689
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.75086
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.74421
 df423.00000
 t4.16423
 p0.00002
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96530
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.53211
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96086
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.52755
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio7.27424
 Upside Potential Ratio14.82940
 Upside part of mean1.73491
 Downside part of mean0.88389
 Upside SD0.19944
 Downside SD0.11699
 N nonnegative terms208.00000
 N negative terms216.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations424.00000
 Mean of predictor0.07812
 Mean of criterion0.85103
 SD of predictor0.12829
 SD of criterion0.22689
 Covariance0.00257
 r0.08815
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15591
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.83884
 Mean Square Error0.05120
 DF error422.00000
 t(b)1.81797
 p(b)0.03489
 t(a)4.11358
 p(a)0.00002
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01266
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32448
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43802
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.23967
 Treynor index (mean / b)5.45849
 Jensen alpha (a)0.83884
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.82462
 SD0.22488
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.66693
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.66043
 df423.00000
 t4.07105
 p0.00003
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88225
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.44743
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87787
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.44298
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio6.96795
 Upside Potential Ratio14.49520
 Upside part of mean1.71543
 Downside part of mean0.89081
 Upside SD0.19602
 Downside SD0.11834
 N nonnegative terms208.00000
 N negative terms216.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations424.00000
 Mean of predictor0.06989
 Mean of criterion0.82462
 SD of predictor0.12842
 SD of criterion0.22488
 Covariance0.00251
 r0.08704
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15241
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.81397
 Mean Square Error0.05031
 DF error422.00000
 t(b)1.79483
 p(b)0.03670
 t(a)4.02726
 p(a)0.00003
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01450
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31933
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41669
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.21124
 Treynor index (mean / b)5.41035
 Jensen alpha (a)0.81397
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.01739
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02235
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.00590
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01241
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates
 Number of observations424.00000
 Minimum0.95512
 Quartile 10.99816
 Median1.00000
 Quartile 31.00624
 Maximum1.06990
 Mean of quarter 10.98997
 Mean of quarter 20.99981
 Mean of quarter 31.00251
 Mean of quarter 41.01772
 Inter Quartile Range0.00808
 Number outliers low20.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.04717
 Mean of outliers low0.97732
 Number of outliers high39.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.09198
 Mean of outliers high1.02955
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.29836
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00638
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00806
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02370
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00870
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01313
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs
 Number of observations25.00000
 Minimum0.00032
 Quartile 10.00673
 Median0.01829
 Quartile 30.04367
 Maximum0.10753
 Mean of quarter 10.00344
 Mean of quarter 20.01033
 Mean of quarter 30.03381
 Mean of quarter 40.07896
 Inter Quartile Range0.03694
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high1.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.04000
 Mean of outliers high0.10753
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.96672
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08227
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08761
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.56057
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07459
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08166
 COMBINED STATISTICS
 Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.45819
 Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.30382
 Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.12470
 Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs16.51280
 Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal58.33920
 0.00000
 0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.30613
 SD0.15908
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.92434
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.91589
 df171.00000
 t1.36071
 p0.43423
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.85771
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.70089
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.86335
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.69512
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio2.93952
 Upside Potential Ratio10.63420
 Upside part of mean1.10746
 Downside part of mean0.80134
 Upside SD0.12078
 Downside SD0.10414
 N nonnegative terms87.00000
 N negative terms85.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations172.00000
 Mean of predictor0.08905
 Mean of criterion0.30613
 SD of predictor0.08882
 SD of criterion0.15908
 Covariance0.00161
 r0.11376
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20376
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28798
 Mean Square Error0.02513
 DF error170.00000
 t(b)1.49296
 p(b)0.44312
 t(a)1.28277
 p(a)0.45104
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06565
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47317
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15518
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73115
 Treynor index (mean / b)1.50241
 Jensen alpha (a)0.28798
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
 Mean0.29342
 SD0.15895
 Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.84597
 Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.83786
 df171.00000
 t1.30530
 p0.43687
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.93537
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.62204
 Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.94078
 Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.61650
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio
 Sortino ratio2.79192
 Upside Potential Ratio10.46860
 Upside part of mean1.10023
 Downside part of mean0.80680
 Upside SD0.11968
 Downside SD0.10510
 N nonnegative terms87.00000
 N negative terms85.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
 N of observations172.00000
 Mean of predictor0.08511
 Mean of criterion0.29342
 SD of predictor0.08882
 SD of criterion0.15895
 Covariance0.00164
 r0.11622
 b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20798
 a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27572
 Mean Square Error0.02507
 DF error170.00000
 t(b)1.52564
 p(b)0.44189
 t(a)1.22966
 p(a)0.45305
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06112
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47709
 Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16691
 Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.71835
 Treynor index (mean / b)1.41081
 Jensen alpha (a)0.27572
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.01316
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01668
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
 VaR(95%)0.00525
 Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01102
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates
 Number of observations172.00000
 Minimum0.96559
 Quartile 10.99967
 Median1.00006
 Quartile 31.00487
 Maximum1.03011
 Mean of quarter 10.99076
 Mean of quarter 20.99999
 Mean of quarter 31.00190
 Mean of quarter 41.01104
 Inter Quartile Range0.00520
 Number outliers low24.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.13953
 Mean of outliers low0.98669
 Number of outliers high14.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.08140
 Mean of outliers high1.01920
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.55905
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00402
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00420
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28170
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00757
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01015
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs
 Number of observations6.00000
 Minimum0.00032
 Quartile 10.00936
 Median0.03171
 Quartile 30.07446
 Maximum0.08857
 Mean of quarter 10.00310
 Mean of quarter 20.01975
 Mean of quarter 30.04367
 Mean of quarter 40.08665
 Inter Quartile Range0.06511
 Number outliers low0.00000
 Percentage of outliers low0.00000
 Mean of outliers low0.00000
 Number of outliers high0.00000
 Percentage of outliers high0.00000
 Mean of outliers high0.00000
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
 Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000
 Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000
 VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000
 Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 COMBINED STATISTICS
 Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.32759
 Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.35442
 Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.00140
 Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.09022
 Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.24930
Strategy Description
VIX DayTrader 1 is now closed to new subscribers. However, a "sister strategy" VIX DayTrader 2 has now been opened:https://collective2.com/details/107301515
Strategy description: Volatility/VIX has recently become a popular asset class amongst sophisticated investors  it has historically generated large returns, can be used to hedge risk, and may act as a diversification tool for typical portfolios. This strategy provides access to a professionally managed, academically evidenced and thoroughly backtested strategy, giving the user access to a professional volatility day trader. Despite the sophistication of the underlying system, it has been designed to be incredibly simple for the end user. It achieves this by being using exchangetraded products such as VXX and XIV (inverse VIX), so that the user does not need access to futures. Moreover, the use of long XIV positions allows the strategy to “short” volatility without actually having to borrow stock, as this can lead to problems for the endusers of the system.
Using these products, the strategy switches between “riskon” (VXX) and “riskoff” (XIV) according to a variety of metrics and indicators. The biggest advantage is the ability of this flexible strategy to buy volatility (long VXX) at times of market stress, downturns and crashes. In this way, the system can be profitable when many other successful “longonly” stock strategies will be suffering some serious losses.
The trading system is implemented as a discretionary/semiautomated strategy – the final judgement is made by a human, and includes a range of technical, fundamental, economic and news factors. Trading size might vary according to market conditions.
LOYALTY SCHEME: Continuous subscriptions of more than 6months are eligible to receive a $20 reduction below the standard subscription price. Simply send me a message after this period has elapsed, and I will apply the reduction to your account.
Subscriptions not available
No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.
Statistics
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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.
Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.
Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have underor overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results
The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.
 Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
 Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been rescaled downward to make current goforward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
 All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any pertrade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
 "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.
Trading is risky
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.